Art of Agile Estimation

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1 | 5/22/2019 © Copyright 2006-2018 Inflectra Corporation
Estimating User Stories in Agile Space
Deeper Dive into Agile
By: Sriram Rajagopalan
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Meet the Speaker
Dr. Sriram Rajagopalan
Education
Work
Experience
Training &
Certification
Teaching
Experience
PhD, MBA, MS, BE
PfMP, PgMP, PMP, SP,
RMP, ACP, CSM, CSPO,
ACC, CSD, SCT, CSOXP,
SSBB, Instructional
Designer, Speaker,
Writer, and Author
Software Engineer,
Team Leader,
Business Analyst,
Project Manager,
Scrum Master, Agile
Coach, Director,
Vice President
Several
Colleges in the
US, India, &
Vietnam

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Introduction
 Today’s webinar is part of the series on “Deeper Dive into
Agile”
 Each webinar is 1-hour long. We will reserve time at the end
for questions
 Unlike the previous webinars, each webinar is a stand-alone
webinar
 The webinars may demonstrate the concept using a tool
 There is no expectation on your part to setup access with
the SpiraTeam®
 The completion certificate is based on specific requirements

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Completion Certificate
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Reminders
• No dependency on the
webinars
• No quiz on the webinars

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Deeper Dive into Agile
April 25
Preparing for Career
Roles in the Agile
Arena
May 7
Estimating User Stories
in the Agile Space
Jun 6
Managing Risk in the
Agile Enterprise

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Estimation in Agile
Estimation in Agile is NOT vastly
different from estimation in other
approaches. Estimation in all approaches
first march towards “how long” or “how
much” certain work will take to
complete! The “when” to deliver comes
much later.

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Getting Grounded: Accuracy
Accuracy
Order of
Magnitude
Feasibility Preliminary Substantive Definitive
Can we do?
Screening
Estimate
-25% - +75%
Margin
Should we do?
Decision
Estimate
-25% - +25%
Margin
Can we afford?
Budget
Estimate
-10% - +15%
Margin
Should we execute?
Plan
Estimate
-10% - +15%
Margin
When to deliver?
Schedule
Estimate
-5% - +10%
Margin

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Getting Grounded: Level of Confidence
Top Down
• Analogous Estimation
• Parametric Estimation
Bottom Up
• Parametric
Estimation
3-Point
Estimation
Team
Level
Team
Order of
Magnitude or
Feasibility
Estimates
Preliminary
or
Substantive
Estimates
Definitive
Estimates

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Estimation – Challenge with Time
Estimation
Ideal
Time
Elapsed
Time
Cycle
Time
Takt
Time
Time taken
without any
interruption
Time taken
with the
interruption
Time taken
from ideation
to deployment
Time taken for finished
product to meet
customer demand

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Challenge with Delivery
Estimation measured in days/hours
• Assumes everyone always have a “good
average day”
• Assumes anyone can do the job
• Assumes the assigned individual is available
• Assumes factors outside of schedule doesn’t
impact demands

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Story Point
 Critical is Agile focus team commitment to self-organization
 Pivotal is the measure of the team’s ability to deliver
 Indispensable is the approximation of effort expected
1
2
3
5
8
13
21
Fibonacci
Sequence helps
in “sizing” the
level of effort

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Estimation Unit
Small
3 - 8
Points
Medium
13 - 40
Points
Large
40 – 80
Points
X-Large
> 80
Points
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

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Art of Agile Estimation
Idea
Epic 1
Theme A
Theme B
Epic 2
Theme C
Theme D
Feature I
Feature II
User Story a
Task I
Task ii
Task iiiUser Story b
User Story c
T0 T50
Time
Dreams Castles
Granularity
Big House Duplex Home 2 BR, etc. Get loan preapproval
Don’t estimate T-Shirt Sizes Story Point Hours

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Prerequisites for Backlog
• Neither too much nor too little information
Detailed Appropriately
• The user story should be unambiguous for one to estimate
Estimable
• It is dynamic and evolves iteratively through the iterations
Emergent
• Those that deliver the most value to the user should be at the top
Prioritized

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Prerequisites for User Story
• Avoids planning & prioritizationIndependent
• Avoid too many details of precisionNegotiable
• Avoid technology implementation specific details.Valuable
• Story should be at a level for developers to estimate appropriately.Estimable
• Keep it simple by splitting storiesSmall
• Code it for automated testing as much as possibleTestable

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User Story
Card
ConversationConfirmation
Agreement between customer and team
Captures high level requirement
Describes details for planning estimates
Acceptance criteria for testing

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User Story Format
As a “Frequent Flyer Member” I
want to “setup preferences for my
flight notifications” so that I can
“access the notifications at my
preferred communication channel.”
1. Easy access to the Notifications in the
GUI
2. Quick means to setup the grid of
available channel and flight notification
types
3. Email confirming my preferences
4. Message delivery confirmation on
Mobile
User Story A
Given “20% of unprocessed call
volume”, when “remaining time to
process the volume is less than two
hours,” then “a production alert
should be raised to increase the
ports or throttle.”
1. Expected hourly call volume is first
computed before initiating calls
2. Calls are prioritized by time zone for
processing
3. Separate process polls and records
real-time updates in dashboard
4. Call queuing is adjustable for new
ports or throttle adjustment
User Story B

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Golden Rules from Best Practices
The WBS represents 100% of the
project scope with all internal
and external deliverables
Every two weeks, there should be
a measurable and agreed upon
deliverable towards project
completion
No task in a WBS should exceed
40 hours regardless of the
resource expertise or the PM’s
bandwidth to monitor progress
100% Rule
2-Week Rule
40 hour
Rule
The release plan represents 100%
of the MVP scope representing
value to customer and business
Every two weeks, there should be
a measurable and agreed upon
MMF delivered in the iterations
No user story exceeding [13 story
points] in size be committed by
the team regardless of the
resource expertise

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Planning Poker
1. Each member has a deck of cards
2. PO reads and discusses the story
3. Each member selects a card but
doesn’t show the card
4. At a specific time requested, each
member shows the selected card
5. SM facilitates the process of
discussing the differences
6. PO answers the questions
7. Steps 3 and 4 are repeated for a
re-estimate
8. When estimates is closer to
agreement, the story point is
assigned
Steps

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Relative Sizing
Orange
5-Point 3-Point 8-Point

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Affinity Estimating -
Example
Small – 3 Points
Medium – 5 Points
Large – 8 Points
X-Large – 13 Points

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PERT Approach
Optimistic (O) Most Likely (M) Pessimistic (P)
(O + 4M + P)
6
8 hours 20 hours 40 hours
21 hours

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PERT can be applied in Agile too
Planning Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic PERT Story Point
User Story 1 8 20 40 21.33 21 Risk
User Story 2 1 3 8 3.5 5
User Story 3 2 5 13 5.83 8
User Story 4 13 20 40 22.17 21 Risk
User Story 5 20 80 100 73.33 80 Risk
Rajagopalan, S. (2013). Value of PERT in Agile Estimation and Risk Management. Scrum Alliance.

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Tools
 Estimation Tools
 PlanningPoker
 PointingPoker
 Story Points are entered in various tools

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Summary
 Estimation is based on the level of accuracy and confidence
required in the estimate
 Estimation therefore is aligned with the project or product
lifecycle
 Understand the challenges associated with estimation in hours –
differentiate ideal, elapsed, cycle, and takt time
 Not everything that looks like a story is a story to be estimated
with a story point
 Develop an appreciation for DEEP backlog and INVEST in the
user story
 Don’t become too prescriptive and adapt approaches!

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Q & A
 Please feel free to ask
questions
Course Administration
Ms. Thea Maisuradze
marketing@inflectra.com
Content
Dr. Sriram Rajagopalan
sriram@inflectra.com.

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Next Steps
1. Look for the next seminar
2. If you have any thoughts on other webinars, please email
us
Thank you for watching!

Art of Agile Estimation

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