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Is Human Health Depends on the Health of Global Climate?

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International Conference on Sustainable Agriculture and Environment | 27 - 29 June 2013 | Solo, Indonesia.

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Is Human Health Depends on the Health of Global Climate?

  1. 1. Is Human Health Depends on The Health of Global Climate? Perspective on Temperature-related Death and Communicable Disease
  2. 2. Tenri A.Wanahari1, A. Kusumawati2, B. Murthi3, P. Dirgahayu4, B.A., Mappakaya1 1Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Sebelas Maret 2Center of Biotechnology Study, Universitas Gadjah Mada 3Depatment of Public Health, Universitas Sebelas Maret
  3. 3. Conclusion Climate Change and Health: Mitigation and Adaptation The Impact of Climate Change on Human Health Climate Change: Why is It happened? Climate Change: The Evidence?
  4. 4. Climate Change: The Evidence?
  5. 5. What is Climate Change?
  6. 6. What is Climate Change? “Any significant change in measures of climate, such as temperature, rain fall, wind, and other weather patterns, lasting for decades or longer” Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) 2007
  7. 7. Is Global Climate Changing?
  8. 8. How do we know?
  9. 9. Temperature Change Data 1880-1884 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  10. 10. 1880-18841886-1890 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  11. 11. 1896-1900 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  12. 12. 1906-1910 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  13. 13. 1916-1920 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  14. 14. 1926-1930 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  15. 15. 1936-1940 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  16. 16. 1946-1950 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  17. 17. 1956-1960 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  18. 18. 1966-1970 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  19. 19. 1976-1980 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  20. 20. 1986-1990 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  21. 21. 1996-2000 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  22. 22. 2003-2007 Source: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003400/a003490/index.html
  23. 23. (Source: The State of the Climate Highlights: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2009.)
  24. 24. (Source: The State of the Climate Highlights: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2009.)
  25. 25. (Source: The State of the Climate Highlights: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2009.)
  26. 26. (Source: The State of the Climate Highlights: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2009.)
  27. 27. (Source: The State of the Climate Highlights: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2009.)
  28. 28. (Source: The State of the Climate Highlights: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2009.)
  29. 29. (Source: The State of the Climate Highlights: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2009.)
  30. 30. More Evidence?
  31. 31. Portage Glacier 1914 2004 • Alaska Photos: NOAA Photo Collection and Gary Braasch – WorldViewOfGlobalWarming.org
  32. 32. (Source: The State of the Climate Highlights: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2009.)
  33. 33. (Source: The State of the Climate Highlights: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2009.)
  34. 34. (Source: The State of the Climate Highlights: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2009.)
  35. 35. Global climate is Changing Summary:
  36. 36. Conclusion Climate Change and Health: Adaptation and Mitigation The Impact of Climate Change on Health Climate Change: Why is It Happened? Climate Change: The Evidence?
  37. 37. Climate Change: Why is It Happened?
  38. 38. Why: Causes of Change
  39. 39. How does Green House Effect Works?
  40. 40. How does The Greenhouse Effect Works? Fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
  41. 41. What are The Evidence?
  42. 42. What are The Evidence? The PRIMARY DATA
  43. 43. CO2 ppm Temp oC 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 390 370 350 330 310 290 270 250 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.5 Correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and Earth’s average surface temperature Year CO2 concentration Earth’s Temperature Graph from: Hanno, 2009
  44. 44. Atmospheric concentrations of important long-lived greenhouse gases over the last 2,000 years. Increases since about 1750 are attributed to human activities in the industrial era. Concentration units are parts per million (ppm) or parts per billion (ppb), indicating the number of molecules of the greenhouse gas per million or billion air molecules, respectively, in an atmospheric sample. (Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007)
  45. 45. Where does The Green House Gases Come from?
  46. 46. Human-Produced Greenhouse Gas Levels Global Emissions of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases From 1970 to 2004 (Source: IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, Figure SPM3, p.5.)
  47. 47. Antrophogenic = from Human* *According to IPCC (Intergovermental Panel of Climate Change) Summary in 2007
  48. 48. Climate changing is human caused, due to due to increases in greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuel. Summary:
  49. 49. Conclusion Climate Change and Health: Adaptation and Mitigation The Impact of Climate Change on Health Climate Change: Why is It happened? Climate Change: The Evidence?
  50. 50. How Climate Change affects Health?
  51. 51. WEATHER CHANGES: - Extreme weather (heat wave) - temperature - Rain precipitation CLIMATE CHANGE How Climate Change affects Health?
  52. 52. WEATHER CHANGES: - Extreme weather (heat wave) - temperature - Rain precipitation - Increase Temperature - Increase Infectious Disease Transmission CLIMATE CHANGE How Climate Change affects Health?
  53. 53. HEALTH EFFECTS Heat-related illness, death Flood, storm- related health Mals Air pollution effects Water- and food borne diseases Vector-borne disease CLIMATE CHANGE How Climate Change affects Health? WEATHER CHANGES: - Extreme weather (heat wave) - temperature - Rain precipitation - Increase Temperature - Increase Infectious Disease Transmission
  54. 54. HEALTH EFFECTS Heat-related disease/death Flood, storm- related health Mals Air pollution effects Water- and food borne diseases Vector-borne disease CLIMATE CHANGE How Climate Change affects Health? Malaria and Dengue WEATHER CHANGES: - Extreme weather (heat wave) - temperature - Rain precipitation - Increase Temperature - Increase Infectious Disease Transmission
  55. 55. What kind of Research to Asses The Impact of Climate Change on Health?
  56. 56. past Future 2020s, 2050+ NOW Learning From The Past Disaster Detection of Health Impact Predictive Modelling Research Strategy Research using Statistics Tools
  57. 57. Case Studies
  58. 58. Case Studies: Temperature related-Death
  59. 59. What Kind of Variable do We need for doing this Research?
  60. 60. Case Study: Temperature related-Death Source: World Health Organization, Climate Change and Health
  61. 61. Heatwave: August 2003 34,000 extra deaths over a two-week period http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov
  62. 62. Mortality in Paris during 2003 Heat Wave Source: Institute de Vieille Sanitaire, France June
  63. 63. Mortality in Paris during 2003 Heat Wave Source: Institute de Vieille Sanitaire, France June July
  64. 64. Mortality in Paris during 2003 Heat Wave Source: Institute de Vieille Sanitaire, France June July August
  65. 65. Mortality in Paris during 2003 Heat Wave Source: Institute de Vieille Sanitaire, France June July August September
  66. 66. Mortality in Paris during 2003 Heat Wave Source: Institute de Vieille Sanitaire, France June July August September Temperature
  67. 67. Mortality in Paris during 2003 Heat Wave Source: Institute de Vieille Sanitaire, France June July August September Temperature Number of Death
  68. 68. Can we Predict the Future Temperature?
  69. 69. Seeing The Future: Projection 20 15 1900 21002000 14 16 17 18 13 19 Temperature (OC) Year 2.5oC Best estimate Low High IPCC estimates (2007): increasing 1 to 4.5oC 1.2oC 2050
  70. 70. Climate Change: Temperature Distribution Shift to More Heat IPCC, 2007b
  71. 71. Are there more studies reported?
  72. 72. Urban area Health outcome measure Model Climate scenario Non-climate assumptions Results ref UK Heat- and cold- related mortality and hospital admissions . Empirical- statistical model, derived from observed mortality. UKCIP scenarios 2020s, 2050s, 2080s No population growth. No acclimatization assumed. Medium-high climate change scenario would result in an estimated 2800 heat deaths per year in the UK in the 2050s (250% increase). Greater reductions in cold- related mortality. Keatinge et al. (Department of Health, 2002) Lisbon, Portugal Heat- related death Empirical- statistical model, derived from observed summer mortality. 2xCO2 emissions RCMs: PROMES and HadRM2 SRES population scenarios. Assumes some acclimatization. Increases in heat related mortality, by 2020s, to range 5.8- 15.1 deaths per 100,000, from baseline 5.4-6 deaths per 100,000 (Dessai, 2003) Six cities in Australia [Adelaide, Brisbane, Hobart, Melbourne, Perth, Sydney] Two cities in New Zealand [Auckland, Christchurch] Heat- and cold- related mortality in over 65s Empirical- statistical model, derived from observed monthly mortality. High, medium and low emissions. CSIROMk2, ECHAM4 Population growth, and population ageing. No acclimatization. Increases in heat- related mortality in over 65s, increases large in temperature cities. Less reductions in cold related mortality. (McMichael et al., 2003)
  73. 73. Climate Change increase the risk of Death Heat-related Death incidence tend to Increase in the future Summary:
  74. 74. Case Study: Vector-borne Disease
  75. 75. Vector-borne Disease Susceptible population • Migration (forced) •Vector environment Vector •Survival, lifespan •Reproduction/breeding patterns •Biting behavior Pathogen •Survival •Transmission •Replication in host
  76. 76. What Kind of Variable do We need for doing this Research?
  77. 77. Case Study: Vector-borne Disease Source: World Health Organization, Climate Change and Health
  78. 78. Case Study: Dengue
  79. 79. (World Health Organization, 2012) Equator Line
  80. 80. DENGUE FEVER: Estimated geographic region suitable for A. aegypti vector, an also transmission:
  81. 81. DENGUE FEVER: Estimated geographic region suitable for A. aegypti vector, an also transmission: Climate conditions now and in alternative scenarios for 2050
  82. 82. NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM/UnivOtago, 2003 DENGUE FEVER: Estimated geographic region suitable for A. aegypti vector, an also transmission: Climate conditions now and in alternative scenarios for 2050 Darwin Katherine Cairns Mackay Rockhampton Townsville Port Hedland Broome . . Brisbane . . . . . . . Current risk region, for dengue transmission Global statistical model (Hales), applied to Australia: mosquito survival in relation to water vapour pressure (rainfall, humidity).
  83. 83. NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM/UnivOtago, 2003 DENGUE FEVER: Estimated geographic region suitable for A. aegypti vector, an also transmission: Climate conditions now and in alternative scenarios for 2050 2050 risk region:Medium GHG emissions scenario Darwin Katherine Cairns Mackay Rockhampton Townsville Port Hedland Broome . . . . . . . .Carnarvon. Darwin Katherine Cairns Mackay Rockhampton Townsville Port Hedland Broome . . Brisbane . . . . . . . Current risk region, for dengue transmission Brisbane Global statistical model (Hales), applied to Australia: mosquito survival in relation to water vapour pressure (rainfall, humidity).
  84. 84. NCEPH/CSIRO/BoM/UnivOtago, 2003 DENGUE FEVER: Estimated geographic region suitable for A. aegypti vector, an also transmission: Climate conditions now and in alternative scenarios for 2050 2050 risk region:Medium GHG emissions scenario Darwin Katherine Cairns Mackay Rockhampton Townsville Port Hedland Broome . . . . . . . .Carnarvon. Darwin Katherine Cairns Mackay Rockhampton Townsville Port Hedland Broome . . Brisbane . . . . . . . Current risk region, for dengue transmission Darwin Katherine Cairns Mackay Rockhampton Townsville Port Hedland Broome. . . . . . . .Carnarvon. 2050 risk region: High GHG emissions scenario Brisbane Brisbane Global statistical model (Hales), applied to Australia: mosquito survival in relation to water vapour pressure (rainfall, humidity).
  85. 85. Case Study: Malaria
  86. 86. (World Health Organization, 2012) Equator Line
  87. 87. (Ex)trinsic Incubation Period (In)trinsic Incubation Period
  88. 88. (Ex)trinsic Incubation Period
  89. 89. “extrinsic incubation period” shortens at higher temps, so mosquitoes are infectious sooner. Relationship between Temperatute and Malaria Parasite Development In Mosquito
  90. 90. TRANSMISSION POTENTIAL 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 Temperature (°C) Plasmodium Incubation time 0 10 20 30 40 50 15 20 25 30 35 40 (days) Biting frequency 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Temp (°C)(perday) Survival probability 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (perday) Temp (°C) Temp (°C) Malaria Transmissibility: Temperature and Biology P.vivax P.falciparum Based on Martens WJM, 1998 ---------------- Mosquito ------------------
  91. 91. TRANSMISSION POTENTIAL 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 Temperature (°C) Plasmodium Incubation time 0 10 20 30 40 50 15 20 25 30 35 40 (days) Biting frequency 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Temp (°C)(perday) Survival probability 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (perday) Temp (°C) Temp (°C) Malaria Transmissibility: Temperature and Biology P.vivax P.falciparum Based on Martens WJM, 1998 ---------------- Mosquito ------------------
  92. 92. TRANSMISSION POTENTIAL 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 Temperature (°C) Plasmodium Incubation time 0 10 20 30 40 50 15 20 25 30 35 40 (days) Biting frequency 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Temp (°C)(perday) Survival probability 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (perday) Temp (°C) Temp (°C) Malaria Transmissibility: Temperature and Biology P.vivax P.falciparum Based on Martens WJM, 1998 ---------------- Mosquito ------------------
  93. 93. TRANSMISSION POTENTIAL 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 Temperature (°C) Plasmodium Incubation time 0 10 20 30 40 50 15 20 25 30 35 40 (days) Biting frequency 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Temp (°C)(perday) Survival probability 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 (perday) Temp (°C) Temp (°C) Malaria Transmissibility: Temperature and Biology P.vivax P.falciparum Based on Martens WJM, 1998 ---------------- Mosquito ------------------
  94. 94. Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Ebi et al., 2005 Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Bulawayo Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low High probability Medium probability Low probability Harare Highlands
  95. 95. Ebi et al., 2005 Bulawayo Harare Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low
  96. 96. Ebi et al., 2005 Bulawayo Harare Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low
  97. 97. Malaria in India Bhattacharya et al. 2006 2050’s1980 to 2000
  98. 98. Vector-borne Disease (Malaria and Dengue): Tend to increase in range of transmission and incidence in the Future, depend on regional weather change Summary:
  99. 99. Conclusion Climate Change and Health: Adaptation and Mitigation The Impact of Climate Change on Health Climate Change: Why is It happened? Climate Change: The Evidence?
  100. 100. Climate Change and Health: Mitigation and Adaptation
  101. 101. What we can do Facing The Climate Change?
  102. 102. Mitigation and Adaptation Managing The Cause: Green House Gas Managing the Impact: The Health
  103. 103. Climate Change and Health Mitigation and Adaptation (The Concept) Based on: McMichael et al., Brit med J, 2008 Climate - changes
  104. 104. Climate Change and Health Mitigation and Adaptation (The Concept) Human society: • Population size • Economic activity • Culture, governance Human pressure on environment Based on: McMichael et al., Brit med J, 2008 Adaptation: Reduce health impacts/risks Human impacts: •Health Unintended health effects Mitigation of Climate Change: Reduce GHG emissions Climate - changes Risks to humans better understood Natural environmental processes Need for local prevention Causes Impact
  105. 105. Disaster Preparedness Public Education & Risk Communication Enhanced Early Warning System & Monitoring Strategies for Adaptation (The Concept) World Health Organization, 2012
  106. 106. Mitigation & Adaptation • Mitigation: Need policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions • Adaptation: We need to educate the public (the health risk), Improve early warning system & monitoring, and making strategy for disaster preparedness
  107. 107. Reducing Health Impacts of Climate Change Disease burden now 2050 2100 Baseline burden
  108. 108. Reducing Health Impacts of Climate Change Disease burden Mitigation begins emissions reduction (etc.) now 2050 2100 Baseline burden Health impact change by mitigation
  109. 109. For mitigation, we need more policy to reduce green house gases emission For adaptation, we need to educate the public (the health risk), Improve early warning system & monitoring, and making strategy for disaster preparedness Summary: Earlier we do the prevention, better the outcome
  110. 110. Conclusion Climate Change and Health: Adaptation and Mitigation The Impact of Climate Change on Health Climate Change: Why is It happened? Climate Change: The Evidence?
  111. 111. Conclusion
  112. 112. Global climate is Changing, poses significant public health threats Climate changing is human caused, due to due to increases in greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuel. Heat related-death incidence tend to increase in the future Vector-borne Disease (Malaria and Dengue): Tend to increase in range of transmission and incidence For mitigation, we need more policy to reduce green house gases emission For adaptation, we need to educate the public (the health risk), Improve early warning system & monitoring, and making strategy for disaster preparedness Summary: Earlier we do the prevention, better the outcome
  113. 113. Thank You

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