Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Forecasting, Scheduling, Deviation Settlement and Related Matters of Solar and Wind Generation Sources) Regulations, 2016

Strictly confidential & privileged
del2infinity Energy Consulting Pvt. Ltd.
(An accurate solution for Wind Power &
Solar Power Forecasting & Scheduling)
abhik@del2infinity.xyz / contact@del2infinity.xyz
www.del2infinity.xyz
07760989341/09674761450
Registered office:18/3/9 K.G. Road,
Kolkata – 700 0057, West Bengal
Key points
Of
Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Forecasting, Scheduling,
Deviation Settlement and Related Matters of Solar and Wind Generation Sources)
Regulations, 2016
1. APPLICABILITY OF THE REGULATIONS
All wind generators and solar generators connected to the AP State grid, including those
connected via pooling stations, and supplying power to the DISCOMs or to the third parties
through open access or for captive consumption through open access, and selling power within
or outside the state of Andhra Pradesh. The deviation settlement of the energy sold by the
Wind and Solar generators outside the state shall be as per the Deviation Settlement and Related
Matters Regulations of CERC as amended from time to time.
2. FORECASTING AND SCHEDULING CODE
 Appropriate meters shall be provided for energy accounting
 Telemetry/communication system & Data Acquisition System shall also be provided by the
generators for transfer of information to the SLDC
 Wind and Solar generators, represented via Qualified Coordinating Agencies (QCAs), shall
mandatorily provide to the SLDC
 Forecasting shall be done by wind and solar generators connected to the State grid, or by
QCAs on their behalf.
 The QCA or the wind and solar generator shall submit a day-ahead and week-ahead
schedule for each pooling station or each generating station,
 The plan for data telemetry, formats of forecast submission and other details in this regard
shall be provided in the Detailed Procedure to be prepared by SLDC within two
months from the date of publication in the AP Gazette and approved by the State
Commission.
3. FORECASTING DEVIATION/ABSOLUTE ERROR CALCULATION
Error (%) = 100 X [Actual Generation– Scheduled Generation] / (AvC)
AvC: Available Capacity
4. FORECASTING DAY-AHEAD/WEEK AHEAD SCHEDULE

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 Day-ahead schedule shall contain wind or solar energy generation schedule at intervals of
15 minutes (time-block) for the next day, starting from 00:00 hours of the day, and
prepared for all 96 time-blocks.
 Week-ahead schedule shall contain the same information for the next seven days.
 There may be one revision for each time slot of one and half hours starting from 00:00
hours of a particular day subject to maximum of 16 revisions during the day.
 Such revisions shall be effective from 4th time block, the first being the time-block in
which notice was given.
5. DEVIATION CHARGES

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6. MECHANISM FOR DEVIATION SETTLMENT FOR INTERSTATE TRANSACTION

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7. EFFECTIVENESS OF THE REGULATIONS
 The existing plants shall either by themselves or through Qualified Coordinating Agency
(QCA) or through an Aggregator shall establish forecasting tools within six months from
the publication of these regulations in the AP Gazette and for new plants they shall be
established before commissioning of their plants.
 Within two months from the date of publication of these Regulations, SLDC shall
formulate Detailed Procedures covering following aspects:

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 Data/information exchange requirement, protocol for sharing between QCA,
SLDC and Generators.
 Prescribe Fees for registration of QCA upon approval by SERC - One time
and annual recurring or one time (3 year).
 Conditions and proposed treatment for dealing with default in State Pool
Settlement by QCA
ABOUT DEL2INFINITY ENERGY CONSULTING PVT. LTD.
del2infinity provides analytics services in the form of dynamically evolving stand-alone software and
cloud based tools to realize the full benefit of renewable power. del2infinity analytics is a one-stop
solution to gather insights into variable renewable power. It helps you take the smart decision
and achieve the best Return on Investment (ROI) for energy system investments.
Del2infinity believes in a systems approach enabling a cohesive decision support system for the user. To
this end, del2infinity has developed the Variability Analytics EngineTM
based on cutting-edge research
and a number of innovative techniques to analyze variability in solar and wind power. The del2infinity
Variability Analytics EngineTM
aggregates renewable power data, performs real-time analytics, and
provides a smart decision-making environment.
del2infinity Energy Consulting provides the solution for Forecasting and Scheduling of Wind and Solar
power (24 hour day-ahead forecast with maximum 16 revisions) to maximize the plant operation
potential and to protect the revenue loss coming from deviation penalties.
INTRODUCTION TO RE POWER FORECASTING & SCHEDULING
del2infinity works in the domain of Energy analytics and performs IT integrated and solution oriented
approach for every energy analytics problems. del2infinity serves AAAS (Analytics As A Service) to its
different clients in different energy related problems specifically concentrated on renewable energy.
The proposal is for the initial trial run and further long term service requirement of del2infinity
Energy Consulting Private Ltd for Forecasting & Scheduling Service for different Wind and Solar
IPPs.
METHODOLOGY
The del2infinity Forecasting System is developed considering India-specific situations where access
to possible and necessary wind/solar power prediction data is a major issue. The system has been created
considering the non-availability of some parameter data in many cases. However, the system is capable
of accommodating and optimizing on additional data when available. del2infinity believes in using the
available data intelligently instead of asking for more data that may not be available.
The del2infinity Forecasting System leverages on artificial intelligence and uses proprietary algorithms
based on statistical machine learning. The machine learning using statistical pattern recognition and

07760989341/09674761450
autonomous algorithms composing of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with multiple layers of connections
plays a crucial role in the forecasting system. The major two parts of the forecasting system are described
herein.
DATA INTEGRATION
del2infinity uses modern data architecture to store, arrange and integrate data from the Supervisory
Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems and/or other customer specific servers. Additionally,
significant effort has been put into automating the pre-processing of data so as to minimize time lag
between obtaining real-time raw data and converting it to meaningful data that can be input into the
Analytics Engine to generate forecast. Historical data (1-3 years) is used to train the forecasting system.
Real-time data is used to do forecast revisions for improved accuracy in intra-day wind power forecasts.

07760989341/09674761450
ANALYTICS ENGINE
del2infinity uses Power to Power (P2P) algorithm as the basic functional module of the analytics engine.
In this module the input is only the wind/solar-power time series data (aggregated or plant level). The
analytics engine uses different statistical pattern matching and ANN algorithms to fetch different
statistical information related to the wind/solar power data. The P2P algorithm generates different
patterns in wind/solar power data as well as information on wind/solar power ramping events. The
system forecasts the next day’s wind/solar power output in 15 minute time blocks. The P2P algorithm
does not use wind speed/radiation (like DNI) or weather related data to ensure system performance
when there is lack of such data.
The power to power (‘P2P’) forecast methodology developed by del2infinity is used to forecast the
solar and wind power data points. The P2P forecast methodology works better if there is no curtailment
issue. But the curtailment issue of one day creates erroneous forecast in next day and affects next few
days if only P2P Artificial Intelligence (‘AI’) system is used. Hence though the proposed methodology
uses P2P AI system, two parallel weather feedback loops are introduced to adapt the system. One
feedback loop is used for pattern matching using support vector machine (‘SVM’) and the other loop is
used to measure the stochastic variation of power input. The analytics engine also has a number of
feedback loops that use wind/solar and weather data. Data used in these feedback loops can include
numerical weather prediction variables (e.g. forecasted wind speed, direction, and pressure / DNI,
ambient temperature etc) and weather observations. These parallel feedback loops are activated only
when these data are available.
del2infinity’s RE Power Forecasting analytics tools and services are capable of doing 24 hours day-
ahead power forecast with maximum 16 revisions, weekly ahead forecast as well as monthly and yearly
forecast. The proprietary solution of del2infinity’s forecasting and scheduling is tested over 3
GW of RE generations in India and other parts of the globe.

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BRIEF PORTFOLIO & RESULTS
Due to confidentiality with our clients, del2infinity cannot disclose the name of the clients (but the
knowledge acquired during the course of such critical exercise of forecasting & scheduling for
various Government, Private Companies including all national and international clients may
be implemented and utilised during execution of the project, if assigned).
del2infinity Energy Consulting’s Wind Forecasting and Scheduling Solution has achieved
efficiency with unprecedented accuracy (87% time-blocks is under +/-10% error margin
depending on the accuracy of real time data)1
.
del2infinity Energy Consulting’s Solar Power forecasting solution is tested more than 200 MW and is
capable of providing solar power forecast with unprecedented accuracy (96% time-blocks is under
+/- 5% error margin depending on the accuracy of real time data).2
1
This Forecasting & Scheduling exercise was assigned by one Private entities to del2infinity Energy Consulting for their 90.3 MW
Wind Plant at Kaladongar, Rajasthan
2
This Forecasting & Scheduling exercise was assigned to del2infinity Energy Consulting to comply with the draft Tamil Nadu
Electricity Regulatory Commission (Forecasting, Scheduling, Deviation Settlement and Related Matters of Wind and Solar
Generation Sources) Regulations 2016.

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THE RESULTS OF AGGREGATED WIND POWER FORECAST OF KARNATAKA STATE, 20143 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
Aggregated wind power Forecasting (Sample KA 2014, Low wind session)
Aggregated wind power Forecasting (Sample KA 2014, High wind session)
3
This Forecasting & Scheduling exercise was assigned by one Government entities and by one Pvt. Think Tank at Delhi to
del2infinity Energy Consulting for feasibility analysis of forecasting

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NORMALIZED MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (MAE) AND ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR (RMSE) FOR DIFFERENT FORECAST
HORIZONS
To evaluate the accuracy of del2infinity’s aggregated wind power forecast, the Root Mean Square Error
(RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were calculated. Here, 60 representative days were chosen,
equally spaced throughout the time period under analysis to calculate RMSE and MAE values for 6-hours
ahead forecast. The following figure shows RMSE and MAE values normalized by installed wind power
capacity in Karnataka during the time period.
RMSE and MAE values for aggregated wind power forecast (6-hours ahead) for Karnataka. All error values are
normalized by the total installed wind power capacity in the state.

07760989341/09674761450
Considering the present CERC formulation of error calculation the accuracy level of forecasting for
different IPPs are as follows:

07760989341/09674761450
SERVICE FEES STRUCTURE
del2infinnity Energy Fees Structure4
for 1st
(first) year5
of the service
Sl
No
Energy
Forecasting
Description of
Service
del2infintiy’s
standard Fees
Excluding all taxes
del2infinity Fees
/ Price with
Limited Liability
del2infinity Fees
/ Price with
Financial Liability
(INR/MW/Month
for available
capacity)
(INR/MW/Month
for available
capacity)
(INR/MW/Month
for available
capacity)
1
Wind
Energy
Forecasting
Upto 500 MW 1800 150 600
2 501-1000 MW 1800 150 550
1001-5000 MW 1800 150 500
5001 MW above 1800 150 450
3 Solar
Energy
Forecasting
0-1000 MW 1800 NA 600
4
1001 MW + 1800 NA 550
For more detail get in touch with us:
Email:- contact@del2infinity.xyz
Phone:- +91- 9674761450 / 7760989341
Website: www.del2infinity.xyz
4
This offer for fees structure is only valid for the Company for its domestic plants, only on singing a binding contract / service
agreement by both the Parties, within 30 days from the date of issue of this proposal.
5
At the moment no Service Tax is charged, the same shall be applicable as and when the same liability arises.

Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Forecasting, Scheduling, Deviation Settlement and Related Matters of Solar and Wind Generation Sources) Regulations, 2016

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Andhra Pradesh Electricity Regulatory Commission (Forecasting, Scheduling, Deviation Settlement and Related Matters of Solar and Wind Generation Sources) Regulations, 2016