This document examines the economic impact of petroleum oil price fluctuations in Kenya using an econometric approach. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model is estimated using time series data and cointegration analysis to determine the short-run and long-run dynamics. The study finds that oil price fluctuations have a negative and significant impact on Kenya's economic performance. It recommends that the government adopt appropriate policy measures to manage oil prices since they are determined exogenously, despite debate around mismanagement in the sector.
An updated UK Consumer Price Inflation PowerPoint Slide Pack. Includes comparisons between UK, Eurozone and Republic of Ireland inflation trends. In addition, the latest trends in oil, petrol & diesel prices are included.
KENYA AIRWAYS STOCK ANALYSIS- LUDENYO CIFAJESSELUDENYO
This document provides daily stock price data for KQ stock on the NSE over the last quarter, including the opening, high, low, and closing prices as well as volume and returns compared to the overall market index. It shows that KQ stock price fluctuated over this period, with some days seeing increases and others seeing decreases of up to 8%. A moving average is also plotted to analyze trends over time.
The document provides sales tax collection data for various areas in Mesa, Arizona for 2010 and 2011. It shows the monthly and total sales tax amounts collected in each area for both years, as well as the percentage change between years. Several areas saw sales tax collection increases from 2010 to 2011, such as Gateway Airport (+28.9%), while other areas such as Fiesta Mall Surrounding District (-18.8%) and Fiesta Mall (-5.2%) saw decreases. The document also notes that starting in July 2010, accounts receivable were included in the reported figures.
Energy East Corporation reported quarterly net income for 2007 and the first quarter of 2008 for its electric, natural gas, and non-regulated businesses. In the first quarter of 2008, total net income was $132.0 million, a $1.2 million decrease from the first quarter of 2007. Electric business income decreased $8.4 million to $56.2 million, while natural gas income increased $8.7 million to $87.1 million. Non-regulated businesses saw a $1.5 million income decrease to a $11.3 million loss. Electric sales volumes decreased across all three utilities, while natural gas sales were down 1% at two utilities but up 14% at Berkshire Gas.
This document provides an overview of health reform and how hospitals are responding to changes. It discusses rising healthcare costs in the US compared to other countries. Key aspects of the reform are outlined, including the creation of Accountable Care Organizations and a shift to paying for outcomes rather than procedures. The document also summarizes some of the main ways hospitals are responding, such as aligning with physicians, focusing on the full care continuum, increasing transparency, emphasizing value over volume, and developing a shared community vision. Employer strategies for incentivizing employees to use high quality, low cost providers are also reviewed.
The Economics and Uncertainty of Offshore Drillingjclark_selc
This document summarizes two reports on the potential economic benefits of offshore drilling in the South Atlantic. It finds that the estimates in the API report are likely overestimates because they are based on outdated high oil price assumptions. The Walden report provides sensitivity analysis showing that estimates of economic impacts and jobs could vary widely depending on uncertain factors like oil prices and estimated oil resources. Compared to the large uncertainty of drilling, the established tourism and fishing industries in the region already provide significant economic value. Overall, the document questions the reliability of optimistic drilling estimates due to uncertainty and changing market conditions.
An Introduction to Upstream Economics, Risk Analysis & Fiscal Analysis is a practical course that will enable delegates from all technical and commercial disciplines to become familiar with the theories and methods used to value oil and gas prospects, discoveries and fields in the international petroleum industry. It also describes in detail the financial structure and mechanisms of PSCs across the world and the economic and value implications of the various terms. The course is punctuated with a number of worked examples and case studies taken from actual contracts in the global oil industry.
This course will help you:
• Develop your knowledge of upstream economic evaluation
• Understand practices to quantify uncertainty and risk in exploration, reserves and cost determination, and economic evaluation
• Contribute to economic evaluation and appraisal for exploration, development and production activities
Course benefits include:
• Gaining experience of economic evaluations
• Constructing production sharing contract and tax and royalty concession spreadsheets
• Understanding the government and oil company perspectives
• Understanding the differences between petroleum production fiscal and contract terms
• Evaluating investment opportunities
• Investigate cost recovery
• Understand profit sharing
• Learn about bonuses and bonus calculations
• Examine sliding scale fiscal mechanisms
• Identify taxation liability and allowances
• Study ring fence calculations and examples
• Analyse and discuss the economics of PSCs
An updated UK Consumer Price Inflation PowerPoint Slide Pack. Includes comparisons between UK, Eurozone and Republic of Ireland inflation trends. In addition, the latest trends in oil, petrol & diesel prices are included.
KENYA AIRWAYS STOCK ANALYSIS- LUDENYO CIFAJESSELUDENYO
This document provides daily stock price data for KQ stock on the NSE over the last quarter, including the opening, high, low, and closing prices as well as volume and returns compared to the overall market index. It shows that KQ stock price fluctuated over this period, with some days seeing increases and others seeing decreases of up to 8%. A moving average is also plotted to analyze trends over time.
The document provides sales tax collection data for various areas in Mesa, Arizona for 2010 and 2011. It shows the monthly and total sales tax amounts collected in each area for both years, as well as the percentage change between years. Several areas saw sales tax collection increases from 2010 to 2011, such as Gateway Airport (+28.9%), while other areas such as Fiesta Mall Surrounding District (-18.8%) and Fiesta Mall (-5.2%) saw decreases. The document also notes that starting in July 2010, accounts receivable were included in the reported figures.
Energy East Corporation reported quarterly net income for 2007 and the first quarter of 2008 for its electric, natural gas, and non-regulated businesses. In the first quarter of 2008, total net income was $132.0 million, a $1.2 million decrease from the first quarter of 2007. Electric business income decreased $8.4 million to $56.2 million, while natural gas income increased $8.7 million to $87.1 million. Non-regulated businesses saw a $1.5 million income decrease to a $11.3 million loss. Electric sales volumes decreased across all three utilities, while natural gas sales were down 1% at two utilities but up 14% at Berkshire Gas.
This document provides an overview of health reform and how hospitals are responding to changes. It discusses rising healthcare costs in the US compared to other countries. Key aspects of the reform are outlined, including the creation of Accountable Care Organizations and a shift to paying for outcomes rather than procedures. The document also summarizes some of the main ways hospitals are responding, such as aligning with physicians, focusing on the full care continuum, increasing transparency, emphasizing value over volume, and developing a shared community vision. Employer strategies for incentivizing employees to use high quality, low cost providers are also reviewed.
The Economics and Uncertainty of Offshore Drillingjclark_selc
This document summarizes two reports on the potential economic benefits of offshore drilling in the South Atlantic. It finds that the estimates in the API report are likely overestimates because they are based on outdated high oil price assumptions. The Walden report provides sensitivity analysis showing that estimates of economic impacts and jobs could vary widely depending on uncertain factors like oil prices and estimated oil resources. Compared to the large uncertainty of drilling, the established tourism and fishing industries in the region already provide significant economic value. Overall, the document questions the reliability of optimistic drilling estimates due to uncertainty and changing market conditions.
An Introduction to Upstream Economics, Risk Analysis & Fiscal Analysis is a practical course that will enable delegates from all technical and commercial disciplines to become familiar with the theories and methods used to value oil and gas prospects, discoveries and fields in the international petroleum industry. It also describes in detail the financial structure and mechanisms of PSCs across the world and the economic and value implications of the various terms. The course is punctuated with a number of worked examples and case studies taken from actual contracts in the global oil industry.
This course will help you:
• Develop your knowledge of upstream economic evaluation
• Understand practices to quantify uncertainty and risk in exploration, reserves and cost determination, and economic evaluation
• Contribute to economic evaluation and appraisal for exploration, development and production activities
Course benefits include:
• Gaining experience of economic evaluations
• Constructing production sharing contract and tax and royalty concession spreadsheets
• Understanding the government and oil company perspectives
• Understanding the differences between petroleum production fiscal and contract terms
• Evaluating investment opportunities
• Investigate cost recovery
• Understand profit sharing
• Learn about bonuses and bonus calculations
• Examine sliding scale fiscal mechanisms
• Identify taxation liability and allowances
• Study ring fence calculations and examples
• Analyse and discuss the economics of PSCs
This document provides data on domestic and foreign investment in Pakistan from 2000-2014. It shows that foreign direct investment peaked at $3.67 billion in 2007 but declined to $0.58 billion in 2013, while domestic investment remained relatively stable between $14-19 billion per year over the same period. The document also includes data on GDP growth by economic sector from 2007-2015, with agriculture and livestock seeing overall growth but variability between years. Country-wise FDI inflows are given for several countries from 2007-2016. In conclusion, the author examines the relationship between domestic saving and investment in Pakistan and determines that capital mobility, rather than domestic saving, is a determinant of domestic investment.
Venture Backed Exits - Q4 '07/full year 2007 mensa25
- Venture-backed IPOs increased in Q4 2007, with 31 IPOs raising $3 billion, the highest quarterly number since 2000. For the year, 86 companies went public raising $10.3 billion.
- However, M&A deals declined to the lowest quarterly level since 1998, with 46 deals. Average disclosed deal value reached a 7-year high of $290 million.
- For the full year, 305 companies were acquired for a total disclosed value of $25.4 billion, the highest since 2000.
Venture Backed Exits Q2 2008 - NVCA Declares Capital Crisis for Start Up C...mensa25
This document summarizes a report by the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA) and Thomson Reuters that there were no venture-backed Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in the second quarter of 2008, which has not occurred since 1978. It notes that venture capitalists attribute the IPO drought to skittish investors, the credit crunch, and Sarbanes-Oxley regulation. The number of mergers and acquisitions declined compared to previous years, though the technology sector saw the most activity. The lack of exits via IPO is concerning for the venture capital industry and startup community.
The venture capital exit market remained strong in the third quarter of 2007 despite stock market volatility and concerns about subprime mortgages. There were 67 M&A deals totaling $7.7 billion, with the average deal size the highest since 2000. Additionally, there were 12 IPOs that raised $945.2 million. While exits face challenges in the coming quarters as acquisitions take longer to close and some IPOs trade below offering prices, the third quarter exit market demonstrated resilience.
FAISAL BASRI: Subsidi BBM Sudah Bewujud Kanker GanasRuslan Chandra
Forum Diskusi Ekonomi Politik "Subsidi BBM, Solusi atau Masalah?" Minggu, 7 September 2014 bertempat di
Double Bay Lounge and Resto, Lobby Ibis Budget (ex Formula 1) Plaza Menteng GF 9-10, Jl Cokroaminoto 79 Jakarta Pusat.
Pembicara :
Ir. Hasto Kristiyanto, MM (Wakil Sekjend PDIP)
Faisal Basri (Pengamat Ekonomi)
Joko Anwar (Seniman Indonesia)
Olga Lydia (Seniman Indonesia)
Moderator : Azwar Zulkarnaen (FDEP).
Upload by: Ruslan Andy Chandra
http://liputansatu.blogspot.com/2014/09/faisal-basri-subsidi-bbm-solusi-atau.html.
Sumber: Forum Diskusi Ekonomi Politik (FDEP),
The global economic crisis heavily impacted venture-backed exits in 2008. IPO activity reached a 30-year low with just 6 exits for the year. M&A activity also slowed with 260 deals for the full year, down from 300+ deals annually since 2003. The inability of strong companies to go public and softening of acquisitions had major effects on the venture investment lifecycle in 2008 and will slow new investments and fundraising in 2009 until exit markets improve.
The document discusses the Indian economy and trends in Asian economies. It provides an overview of India's economic transition to a services-driven economy, with services now accounting for 57% of GDP. It summarizes growth rates for key sectors in India such as agriculture, industry, and services between 2005-2011. It also discusses the impacts of the global recession of 2008-2009 on Asian economies and indicators of recovery. Overall, it analyzes economic growth trends and the structure of economies across Asia.
Analysis of effect of inflation on savings of individuals in india for past 1...ANIRBAN BHATTACHARYA
Analysis of effect of inflation on savings India: Real rates give an accurate, historical picture of how an investment is performing. A real rate of return is the annual percentage return realized on an investment, which is adjusted for changes in prices due to inflation. The historical figures for past 10 years from 2009 to 2018 related to inflation and savings interest rate (National Saving Certificate- NSC) having sovereign guarantee and tax benefits was considered for analysis. The real rates (adjusted for Inflation) were negative starting from year 2010 to 2013 and in a positive territory 2014 onwards till 2018. Anyone who could increase their income by 3% y-o-y with increase in expenses @ 13% y- o-y could beat the benchmark index returns.
11.price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demandAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines import demand in the Dominican Republic from 1980-2005. It estimates import demand functions for services, merchandise, petroleum, and other products using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The key findings are:
1) All estimated import demand functions show a long-run equilibrium relationship between imports, relative prices, and domestic income.
2) The long-run price elasticities are below 1, indicating relative prices do not affect import demand.
3) The long-run income elasticities are significantly above 1, showing imports are strongly affected by domestic economic activity.
4) These results have implications for sustainable economic growth in the Dominican Republic given its membership
Venture-backed exits continued to decline in Q3 2008, with only 1 IPO. The number of M&A deals was 58, continuing low levels. For the first 3 quarters of 2008 there were only 6 IPOs, the lowest level since 1977. The financial crisis has caused companies to postpone IPOs and made corporations more cautious about acquisitions. The venture capital industry may see fewer new investments if current conditions persist into 2009 as firms focus on supporting companies waiting to exit. Information technology was the most active sector for M&A deals, while the largest deal was an energy company acquired for $856.4 million.
This document summarizes trends in the wood supply industry in the U.S. South from 1995-2015. It finds that the export wood pellet market has led to the opening of 16 new pellet mills while some pulp/paper mills have closed. The growth of the pellet industry has increased demand for wood removals, especially pine, but overall removals have remained steady as a percentage of the total forest inventory. The increased demand from pellet mills has contributed to higher pulpwood and residual prices in the region.
Venture-backed IPO activity increased in Q1 2007 with 17 companies raising $2.09 billion, a 70% increase from Q1 2006. However, merger and acquisition activity declined with only 62 deals compared to 104 in Q1 2006. While the number of deals decreased, the average deal size increased to $161.2 million. Information technology companies accounted for most of the IPO and acquisition activity.
E2 a02 unit_i_sectoral development in india4512452
The document provides an overview of sectoral development in the Indian economy, focusing on trends in the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors from 1950-2016. Key points include:
- GDP growth has increased over time, averaging 3.5% from 1950-1990 and 6.2% from 1991-2011.
- The tertiary sector has grown as the largest contributor to GDP, rising from 50.6% in 2013-14 to 53.8% in 2016-17. The primary sector's contribution has declined from 18.6% to 17.4% over the same period.
- Agricultural production and productivity have increased over time but growth has slowed, with foodgrain production reaching 252 million
Strong Fund Reserves Diminish Need For Venture Capitalists to Raise Additiona...mensa25
Strong fund reserves have diminished the need for venture capitalists to raise additional capital in 2022. In the first quarter, 44 venture capital funds raised $2.2 billion, a 56% decline from the previous quarter. This is an appropriate level given existing reserves and the investment pace. Limited partners have less appetite for new commitments until there is more liquidity from portfolio company exits. The average venture fund size was $50 million, reflecting downward trends in technology valuations.
The document summarizes growth and economic policies in India from 1950 to 2006. It divides this period into four phases based on differences in growth rates and changes in policy regimes. The first phase from 1950-1965 saw average growth of 4.1% annually. The second phase from 1965-1981 saw slower growth of 3.2% due to increased socialism. The third phase from 1981-1988 saw improved growth of 4.8% associated with some liberalization. Finally, the fourth phase from 1988-2006 saw the fastest growth of 6.3% following more substantial economic reforms. Scholars debate the relative importance of specific reforms versus other factors in driving India's increased growth over time.
1. The document contains an economics test with two sections - Macroeconomics and questions related to circular flow, multipliers, autonomous investments, effective demand, unemployment and differences between classical and Keynesian theories.
2. Section A contains three compulsory questions - the first asks to identify business cycles in economic indicators over 32 quarters and recommend measures for the economy. The second calculates total national income after 10 years using a government investment multiplier. The third evaluates costs and benefits of expanding production capacity.
3. Section B asks to attempt any five of seven questions worth 10 marks each, explaining economic concepts like circular flow, multipliers, demonstration and peak income effects, and differences between classical and Keynesian theories.
Efficiency in Managing Working Capital of Maharatna Oil Companies in IndiaRupesh Yadav
The oil sector, one of the eight essential industries in India, makes a significant contribution
towards developing the economy. Due to changes brought by the liberalization of economy, a
number of oil companies in India which had grown exponentially over the years in a virtually
non-competitive environment started facing increasingly severe competition. Therefore, a
paradigm changes in Indian oil sector also become inevitable to meet the new challenges.
The companies operating in this sector forced to reorient their strategies for managing their
working capital (WC). Some of them have been able to adopt themselves to the new situation
while other could not so reorient. In this backdrop, the present paper attempts to analyse the
efficiency of managing WC of Maharatna oil companies during the period 2006-07 to 2020-
21. The efficiency of Working Capital Management (WCM) of the companies under study has
been analysed using Bhattacharya Model (1995). While tackling the issue relevant statistical
tools and techniques have been applied at appropriate places.
Venture-backed IPO activity continued to increase in the second quarter of 2007, with 26 companies raising $4.27 billion compared to 19 companies raising $2 billion in the same quarter of 2006. However, venture-backed merger and acquisition activity declined, with 67 deals in the second quarter of 2007 versus 95 deals in the second quarter of 2006. The technology sector saw the most IPO and M&A activity. Boston and San Jose were the metro regions with the most venture-backed IPO exits.
Abnormalities of hormones and inflammatory cytokines in women affected with p...Alexander Decker
Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) have elevated levels of hormones like luteinizing hormone and testosterone, as well as higher levels of insulin and insulin resistance compared to healthy women. They also have increased levels of inflammatory markers like C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and leptin. This study found these abnormalities in the hormones and inflammatory cytokines of women with PCOS ages 23-40, indicating that hormone imbalances associated with insulin resistance and elevated inflammatory markers may worsen infertility in women with PCOS.
This document provides data on domestic and foreign investment in Pakistan from 2000-2014. It shows that foreign direct investment peaked at $3.67 billion in 2007 but declined to $0.58 billion in 2013, while domestic investment remained relatively stable between $14-19 billion per year over the same period. The document also includes data on GDP growth by economic sector from 2007-2015, with agriculture and livestock seeing overall growth but variability between years. Country-wise FDI inflows are given for several countries from 2007-2016. In conclusion, the author examines the relationship between domestic saving and investment in Pakistan and determines that capital mobility, rather than domestic saving, is a determinant of domestic investment.
Venture Backed Exits - Q4 '07/full year 2007 mensa25
- Venture-backed IPOs increased in Q4 2007, with 31 IPOs raising $3 billion, the highest quarterly number since 2000. For the year, 86 companies went public raising $10.3 billion.
- However, M&A deals declined to the lowest quarterly level since 1998, with 46 deals. Average disclosed deal value reached a 7-year high of $290 million.
- For the full year, 305 companies were acquired for a total disclosed value of $25.4 billion, the highest since 2000.
Venture Backed Exits Q2 2008 - NVCA Declares Capital Crisis for Start Up C...mensa25
This document summarizes a report by the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA) and Thomson Reuters that there were no venture-backed Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in the second quarter of 2008, which has not occurred since 1978. It notes that venture capitalists attribute the IPO drought to skittish investors, the credit crunch, and Sarbanes-Oxley regulation. The number of mergers and acquisitions declined compared to previous years, though the technology sector saw the most activity. The lack of exits via IPO is concerning for the venture capital industry and startup community.
The venture capital exit market remained strong in the third quarter of 2007 despite stock market volatility and concerns about subprime mortgages. There were 67 M&A deals totaling $7.7 billion, with the average deal size the highest since 2000. Additionally, there were 12 IPOs that raised $945.2 million. While exits face challenges in the coming quarters as acquisitions take longer to close and some IPOs trade below offering prices, the third quarter exit market demonstrated resilience.
FAISAL BASRI: Subsidi BBM Sudah Bewujud Kanker GanasRuslan Chandra
Forum Diskusi Ekonomi Politik "Subsidi BBM, Solusi atau Masalah?" Minggu, 7 September 2014 bertempat di
Double Bay Lounge and Resto, Lobby Ibis Budget (ex Formula 1) Plaza Menteng GF 9-10, Jl Cokroaminoto 79 Jakarta Pusat.
Pembicara :
Ir. Hasto Kristiyanto, MM (Wakil Sekjend PDIP)
Faisal Basri (Pengamat Ekonomi)
Joko Anwar (Seniman Indonesia)
Olga Lydia (Seniman Indonesia)
Moderator : Azwar Zulkarnaen (FDEP).
Upload by: Ruslan Andy Chandra
http://liputansatu.blogspot.com/2014/09/faisal-basri-subsidi-bbm-solusi-atau.html.
Sumber: Forum Diskusi Ekonomi Politik (FDEP),
The global economic crisis heavily impacted venture-backed exits in 2008. IPO activity reached a 30-year low with just 6 exits for the year. M&A activity also slowed with 260 deals for the full year, down from 300+ deals annually since 2003. The inability of strong companies to go public and softening of acquisitions had major effects on the venture investment lifecycle in 2008 and will slow new investments and fundraising in 2009 until exit markets improve.
The document discusses the Indian economy and trends in Asian economies. It provides an overview of India's economic transition to a services-driven economy, with services now accounting for 57% of GDP. It summarizes growth rates for key sectors in India such as agriculture, industry, and services between 2005-2011. It also discusses the impacts of the global recession of 2008-2009 on Asian economies and indicators of recovery. Overall, it analyzes economic growth trends and the structure of economies across Asia.
Analysis of effect of inflation on savings of individuals in india for past 1...ANIRBAN BHATTACHARYA
Analysis of effect of inflation on savings India: Real rates give an accurate, historical picture of how an investment is performing. A real rate of return is the annual percentage return realized on an investment, which is adjusted for changes in prices due to inflation. The historical figures for past 10 years from 2009 to 2018 related to inflation and savings interest rate (National Saving Certificate- NSC) having sovereign guarantee and tax benefits was considered for analysis. The real rates (adjusted for Inflation) were negative starting from year 2010 to 2013 and in a positive territory 2014 onwards till 2018. Anyone who could increase their income by 3% y-o-y with increase in expenses @ 13% y- o-y could beat the benchmark index returns.
11.price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demandAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines import demand in the Dominican Republic from 1980-2005. It estimates import demand functions for services, merchandise, petroleum, and other products using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The key findings are:
1) All estimated import demand functions show a long-run equilibrium relationship between imports, relative prices, and domestic income.
2) The long-run price elasticities are below 1, indicating relative prices do not affect import demand.
3) The long-run income elasticities are significantly above 1, showing imports are strongly affected by domestic economic activity.
4) These results have implications for sustainable economic growth in the Dominican Republic given its membership
Venture-backed exits continued to decline in Q3 2008, with only 1 IPO. The number of M&A deals was 58, continuing low levels. For the first 3 quarters of 2008 there were only 6 IPOs, the lowest level since 1977. The financial crisis has caused companies to postpone IPOs and made corporations more cautious about acquisitions. The venture capital industry may see fewer new investments if current conditions persist into 2009 as firms focus on supporting companies waiting to exit. Information technology was the most active sector for M&A deals, while the largest deal was an energy company acquired for $856.4 million.
This document summarizes trends in the wood supply industry in the U.S. South from 1995-2015. It finds that the export wood pellet market has led to the opening of 16 new pellet mills while some pulp/paper mills have closed. The growth of the pellet industry has increased demand for wood removals, especially pine, but overall removals have remained steady as a percentage of the total forest inventory. The increased demand from pellet mills has contributed to higher pulpwood and residual prices in the region.
Venture-backed IPO activity increased in Q1 2007 with 17 companies raising $2.09 billion, a 70% increase from Q1 2006. However, merger and acquisition activity declined with only 62 deals compared to 104 in Q1 2006. While the number of deals decreased, the average deal size increased to $161.2 million. Information technology companies accounted for most of the IPO and acquisition activity.
E2 a02 unit_i_sectoral development in india4512452
The document provides an overview of sectoral development in the Indian economy, focusing on trends in the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors from 1950-2016. Key points include:
- GDP growth has increased over time, averaging 3.5% from 1950-1990 and 6.2% from 1991-2011.
- The tertiary sector has grown as the largest contributor to GDP, rising from 50.6% in 2013-14 to 53.8% in 2016-17. The primary sector's contribution has declined from 18.6% to 17.4% over the same period.
- Agricultural production and productivity have increased over time but growth has slowed, with foodgrain production reaching 252 million
Strong Fund Reserves Diminish Need For Venture Capitalists to Raise Additiona...mensa25
Strong fund reserves have diminished the need for venture capitalists to raise additional capital in 2022. In the first quarter, 44 venture capital funds raised $2.2 billion, a 56% decline from the previous quarter. This is an appropriate level given existing reserves and the investment pace. Limited partners have less appetite for new commitments until there is more liquidity from portfolio company exits. The average venture fund size was $50 million, reflecting downward trends in technology valuations.
The document summarizes growth and economic policies in India from 1950 to 2006. It divides this period into four phases based on differences in growth rates and changes in policy regimes. The first phase from 1950-1965 saw average growth of 4.1% annually. The second phase from 1965-1981 saw slower growth of 3.2% due to increased socialism. The third phase from 1981-1988 saw improved growth of 4.8% associated with some liberalization. Finally, the fourth phase from 1988-2006 saw the fastest growth of 6.3% following more substantial economic reforms. Scholars debate the relative importance of specific reforms versus other factors in driving India's increased growth over time.
1. The document contains an economics test with two sections - Macroeconomics and questions related to circular flow, multipliers, autonomous investments, effective demand, unemployment and differences between classical and Keynesian theories.
2. Section A contains three compulsory questions - the first asks to identify business cycles in economic indicators over 32 quarters and recommend measures for the economy. The second calculates total national income after 10 years using a government investment multiplier. The third evaluates costs and benefits of expanding production capacity.
3. Section B asks to attempt any five of seven questions worth 10 marks each, explaining economic concepts like circular flow, multipliers, demonstration and peak income effects, and differences between classical and Keynesian theories.
Efficiency in Managing Working Capital of Maharatna Oil Companies in IndiaRupesh Yadav
The oil sector, one of the eight essential industries in India, makes a significant contribution
towards developing the economy. Due to changes brought by the liberalization of economy, a
number of oil companies in India which had grown exponentially over the years in a virtually
non-competitive environment started facing increasingly severe competition. Therefore, a
paradigm changes in Indian oil sector also become inevitable to meet the new challenges.
The companies operating in this sector forced to reorient their strategies for managing their
working capital (WC). Some of them have been able to adopt themselves to the new situation
while other could not so reorient. In this backdrop, the present paper attempts to analyse the
efficiency of managing WC of Maharatna oil companies during the period 2006-07 to 2020-
21. The efficiency of Working Capital Management (WCM) of the companies under study has
been analysed using Bhattacharya Model (1995). While tackling the issue relevant statistical
tools and techniques have been applied at appropriate places.
Venture-backed IPO activity continued to increase in the second quarter of 2007, with 26 companies raising $4.27 billion compared to 19 companies raising $2 billion in the same quarter of 2006. However, venture-backed merger and acquisition activity declined, with 67 deals in the second quarter of 2007 versus 95 deals in the second quarter of 2006. The technology sector saw the most IPO and M&A activity. Boston and San Jose were the metro regions with the most venture-backed IPO exits.
Similar to An econometric approach to the economic impact of petroleum oil price fluctuation in kenya (20)
Abnormalities of hormones and inflammatory cytokines in women affected with p...Alexander Decker
Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) have elevated levels of hormones like luteinizing hormone and testosterone, as well as higher levels of insulin and insulin resistance compared to healthy women. They also have increased levels of inflammatory markers like C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and leptin. This study found these abnormalities in the hormones and inflammatory cytokines of women with PCOS ages 23-40, indicating that hormone imbalances associated with insulin resistance and elevated inflammatory markers may worsen infertility in women with PCOS.
A usability evaluation framework for b2 c e commerce websitesAlexander Decker
This document presents a framework for evaluating the usability of B2C e-commerce websites. It involves user testing methods like usability testing and interviews to identify usability problems in areas like navigation, design, purchasing processes, and customer service. The framework specifies goals for the evaluation, determines which website aspects to evaluate, and identifies target users. It then describes collecting data through user testing and analyzing the results to identify usability problems and suggest improvements.
A universal model for managing the marketing executives in nigerian banksAlexander Decker
This document discusses a study that aimed to synthesize motivation theories into a universal model for managing marketing executives in Nigerian banks. The study was guided by Maslow and McGregor's theories. A sample of 303 marketing executives was used. The results showed that managers will be most effective at motivating marketing executives if they consider individual needs and create challenging but attainable goals. The emerged model suggests managers should provide job satisfaction by tailoring assignments to abilities and monitoring performance with feedback. This addresses confusion faced by Nigerian bank managers in determining effective motivation strategies.
A unique common fixed point theorems in generalized dAlexander Decker
This document presents definitions and properties related to generalized D*-metric spaces and establishes some common fixed point theorems for contractive type mappings in these spaces. It begins by introducing D*-metric spaces and generalized D*-metric spaces, defines concepts like convergence and Cauchy sequences. It presents lemmas showing the uniqueness of limits in these spaces and the equivalence of different definitions of convergence. The goal of the paper is then stated as obtaining a unique common fixed point theorem for generalized D*-metric spaces.
A trends of salmonella and antibiotic resistanceAlexander Decker
This document provides a review of trends in Salmonella and antibiotic resistance. It begins with an introduction to Salmonella as a facultative anaerobe that causes nontyphoidal salmonellosis. The emergence of antimicrobial-resistant Salmonella is then discussed. The document proceeds to cover the historical perspective and classification of Salmonella, definitions of antimicrobials and antibiotic resistance, and mechanisms of antibiotic resistance in Salmonella including modification or destruction of antimicrobial agents, efflux pumps, modification of antibiotic targets, and decreased membrane permeability. Specific resistance mechanisms are discussed for several classes of antimicrobials.
A transformational generative approach towards understanding al-istifhamAlexander Decker
This document discusses a transformational-generative approach to understanding Al-Istifham, which refers to interrogative sentences in Arabic. It begins with an introduction to the origin and development of Arabic grammar. The paper then explains the theoretical framework of transformational-generative grammar that is used. Basic linguistic concepts and terms related to Arabic grammar are defined. The document analyzes how interrogative sentences in Arabic can be derived and transformed via tools from transformational-generative grammar, categorizing Al-Istifham into linguistic and literary questions.
A time series analysis of the determinants of savings in namibiaAlexander Decker
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An econometric approach to the economic impact of petroleum oil price fluctuation in kenya
1. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online)
Vol.3, No.7, 2012
An Econometric Approach to the Economic Impact of
Petroleum Oil Price Fluctuation in Kenya
Kotut Cheruiyot Samwel*1 Menjo Kibiwot Isaac2, Jepkwony Joel3
1. School of Business and Economics, Department of Economics, Moi University, P.O Box 3900
Eldoret 30100 Kenya. TEL:- +254722462522 or +254722775422,
*Email kotutmogo@yahoo.com
2. P.O Box 4685 Eldoret 30100 Kenya. TEL:- +254722992841 or +254732992841
Email:- Menjomogo@yahoo.com
3. School of Business and Economics, Department of Marketing and Management Science,
P.o Box 3900, Eldoret, 30100 Kenya Tel +254722684214 Email: kemboi_joel@yahoo.com
Abstract
Oil prices in Kenya have been fluctuating over time hence raising the question as to its impact on the economic
performance, this paper examines the economic impact of oil prices in Kenya on an econometric perspective. In
carrying out the analysis a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) Model was estimated, as a standard behavior with time
series Data stationarity test was carried out followed by the determination of the short run as well as the Long
run Dynamics of the model following co-integration analysis, before the estimation of the VAR model. The study
found out that oil price fluctuation has a negative significant impact on the economic performance in Kenya. We
strongly recommend that the government should adopt appropriate policy measures to manage oil price since
despite the fact that they are determined exogenously there is a lot of debate to mismanagement within the sector.
Key words:- Oil prices, Economy, Inflation, co-integration Analysis, VAR Model
1.0 Introduction
Petroleum oil consumption is generally regarded as a major determinant of economic activities in a country. The
recent fluctuation in oil prices brings concern about possible slowdowns in the economic growth of both
developed and developing economies. Since 1980’s Kenya has under taken major macro economic reforms
aimed at improving economic performance in the country. These reforms have included reforming the energy
sector so as to make it competitive, efficient as well as attracting investment in the sector.
This paper analyses the impact of oil price fluctuations on economic performance in Kenya, it expounds on the
role of oil prices on macroeconomic performance in the country adopting Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model
During the past fifteen years the Kenyan economy has been subjected to exceptional fluctuations that have
actually hindered its performance. Unless appropriate policies are put in place so as to alleviate these macro
economic problems the countries economic prospects of Vision 2030 will just remain a dream.
The purpose of this study is to establish the economic impact of petroleum oil fluctuation on economic
performance in Kenya; this was done by analyzing the trend of oil prices as well as other macro economic
variables on the economic growth in the country. The study adopts VAR model to estimate the relationship
between dependent and independent variables.
1.1 Problem Statement
Kenya for the past twenty years or so have had serious fluctuations in economic activities which have had a lot
of set back to its economic performance, the ever raising inflation, fluctuation in international oil prices,
fluctuation in exchange rates among others have been experienced over the years. Oil prices especially to
petroleum oil importing countries like Kenya have acted as a major economic burden since pricing of this crucial
commodity is determined entirely by the oil exporting countries, in fact there is the latest hypothesis that the
Saudis control the petroleum market in the world today, since most activities are depended on the availability
and amount of petroleum consumed. The level of petroleum consumed in a country depends on several factors
which among them include its prices, the level of economic activity, inflation among others, most of this factors
have been constantly fluctuating in Kenya. To be able to draw policy measures on petroleum and the energy
sector as a whole, as well as the macro economic policies, it is necessary to establish the interrelationship
between the macroeconomic variable and petroleum oil price flutuation. This paper therefore sought to establish
this relationship in Kenya adopting VAR model.
1.2 Petroleum sector in Kenya
Petroleumoil has been and is still the most important source of commercial energy in kenya. Petroleum fuels are
imported in form of crude oil for domestic processing in changamwe(Mombasa) and also as refined products, it
is mainly used in the transport, commercial and industrial sectors. Fluctuations in international prices have
directly affected domestic prices in the country. For instance, the international price of Murban crude oil rose by
17
2. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online)
Vol.3, No.7, 2012
aproximately 46% from US$ 62.05 per barrel in December 2006 to US$ 90.60 per barrel in December 2007 and
about US$140 per barrel in August 2008, before plummeting to less than US$ 50 by March 2009. Total
quantities of petroleum imports registered a growth of 16.4% to stand at 3 691.8 thousand tonnes in 2007. The
total import bill of petroleum products rose by 7.1% in 2007 compared to 8.9% in 2006. Total domestic demand
for petroleum products also rose by about 2.8% that is from3 131.5 thousand tonnes in 2006 to 3 218.3
thousand tonnes in 2007( see table 1.2). Trends in the sale or consumption of petroleum oils indicate that retail
pump outlets and road transport constitute the largest consumer of petroleum oils followed by aviation and
power generation (see table 1.1). Kerosene as a cooking and lighting fuel is equally important especially for the
rural and urban poor households and sometimes used as a substitute to wood fuel. Tax policy measures on
kerosene have far reaching implications on its consumption and household welfare. Kerosene has other
implications on air pollution, health impacts on the poor and security concerns particularly when used to
adulterate other fuels. However this does not affect its consumption in the country.
Table 1.1 Oil Sales
period Light Jet oil Fuel Motor Illuminating Heavy LPG Aviation Total
oil spirits
diseal kerosean Diseal fuels
oil oil
2010 97.6 44.8 43.4 38.8 25.0 1.7 6.1 0.15 257
June 97.6 44.8 43.4 38.8 25.0 1.7 6.1 0.15 257
jully 109.9 47.4 38.8 41.3 21.5 2.2 4.1 0.14 264.9
Aug 97.3 54.7 39.0 40.6 20.1 2.1 6.20 0.15 260.1
sept 107.7 46.6 43.2 41.9 21.9 2.1 5.6 0.08 269.2
Oct 104.6 50.0 51.8 42.1 22.8 1.9 4.8 0.15 278.1
Nov 99.6 50.4 42.2 42.8 21.3 2.5 4.2 0.14 263.1
Dec 114.8 53.8 50.3 53.3 20.7 2.1 4.0 0.17 299.1
2011
Jan 107.1 57.2 48.1 42.4 21.3 2.3 5.4 0.19 283.8
Feb 107.4 52.4 47.4 42.4 19.0 2.7 4.1 0.17 275.5
Mar 121.4 72.4 61.6 47.9 23.6 2.5 5.8 0.05 335.2
Apr 106.1 50.8 54.0 43.7 23.9 2.1 5.3 0.13 285.9
May 107.2 51.9 61.5 46.2 20.7 2.2 5.5 0.14 295.3
Jun 106.5 46.3 47.0 44.0 20.8 1.9 5.3 0.21 272.0
Source, Ministry of Energy
18
3. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online)
Vol.3, No.7, 2012
Table 1.2 murban adnoc prices 2006-2011 US$BBL
Month/Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
January 62.15 54.85 92.25 48.85 77.50 95.55
February 60.95 58.75 95.10 44.95 74.20 103.60
March 60.85 62.10 102.20 47.55 78.30 112.55
April 67.50 67.60 109.35 45.85 84.80 120.70
May 68.50 68.40 125.75 60.15 77.85 113.60
June 68.85 69.70 134.00 71.65 74.80 112.15
July 73.00 73.70 137.35 66.95 73.00 113.95
August 72.70 71.75 117.50 72.75 74.60
September 63.25 78.55 98.05 69.10 75.90
October 59.35 81.80 69.25 69.25 81.50
November 59.70 91.75 51.40 78.60 85.65
December 62.05 90.60 42.10 76.10 91.85
Source, Ministry of Energy
1.3 Theoretical Frame.
This study analyses the relationship between oil price fluctuation and economic performance in Kenya. The oil
consumption amount is determined by the Willingness to Pay by the consumer. The Willingness to Pay (WTP) is
an economic theory that aims to determine the amount of money that a consumer is willing to use for the energy
product; this indicates the value that the consumer attaches for the energy product. The consumers’ WTP is
becoming a popular concept and is now one of the standard approaches used by researchers and economists to
place a value on goods or services for which no market-based pricing mechanism exists {koss (2001) and Gill et
al. (2000)}.
Existing Literature have suggested that there are two approaches used to analyze the consumers’ willingness to
pay. These are;- the direct approach, which involves taking a survey through a structured questionnaire of
consumers’ WTP specified prices for hypothetical services, also referred as Contingent Valuation Method
(CVM). Next is the indirect approach that involves observing consumers’ behavior and modeling of behavior
based on the approximate expenditure in terms of time and money to obtain the goods or services and infer about
WTP through measurement of revealed preference {Kristrom and Laitila (2003), Raje et al. (2002), Cookson
(2000)}. The revealed preferences approach derives WTP values indirectly from the actual market behavior of
individuals.
This study estimates a VAR model to determine the macroeconomic relationship between oil price consumption
and economic performance in Kenya.
1.4 Conceptual Frame
There are several factors that determine the level of economic activities in a country, this include inflationary
situations, exchange rates, monetary as well as fiscal policies among others. How ever the amount of oil
consumption plays a major role in determining the level of activities, the question therefore is to determine the
macroeconomic relationship between oil prices and economic performance. This is diagrammatically presented
as follows.
19
4. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online)
Vol.3, No.7, 2012
2.0 Methodology
This study adopts the following Vector Auto Regressive model as proposed by Sims (1980)
p −1
∑
Z t = µ + Ai Z t −1 + ε T : ε t ≈ i.i.d (0, Ω) .
Where Zt is=1 (Kx1) Vector of variables, µ is a (Kx1) Vector of Intercept terms, Ai is a (KxK) matrix of
i a
coefficients, p is the number of lags adopted, ԑt is a (KxK) of Vector error terms for t=1,2,3,…………,T. also ԑt
is independently and identically distributed i.e (i.i.d) with zero mean and a (KxK) constant Variance- Covariance
matrix { E(ԑt) = 0, E(ԑt ε t' ) = Ω }
2.1 Data Sources and Definition of Variable
This study adopted secondary data from Kenya National Bureau of statistics (KNBS) and the Central Bank of
Kenya (CBK) data base. The dependent variable is Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while the independent
variables incorporated in the model include, Murban oil prices (OP) representing import prices, Inflation (Inf)
rates and Real Exchange Rates (REER).
3.0 Findings
3.1 Unit Root Test
The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Test was adopted in this study to test for unit root. The results in table 1
shows that the Null hypothesis of no Unit root was rejected at 10%
3.2 Stability Test
While interpreting the long run VAR model it is assumed that the sample coefficients remain stable over the
study period since the inference drawn might be invalid if it so happens that the sample coefficients were indeed
not stable. The study adopted the plot of CUSUM test and CUSUM sum of squares test as propounded by Brown
et al (1975). Figure 1.1 shows that there were no statistically significant error and that the model was properly
specified, otherwise instability would have been seen by movement of residue plot outside the critical lines.
3.3 Co-integration Analysis
To estimate the existence of short run as well as the long run association between the variables, the study used
the Johansen and Juselius (JJ) multivariate cointegration technique. The results in Table 1.2 indicate that when
two lags are adopted the null Hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected at 10% significance level. This therefore
provide a precedence to conclude that there exist a long run association between the oil prices and the
independent variables included in the study, hence giving a go ahead to estimate the VAR model
3.4 Discussion of Findings
After the establishment of the existence of a long run association we proceeded to estimate the VAR model.
These results are presented in table 1.3. The test statistics are satisfactory. The goodness-of-fit variable (R2) show
that the exogenous variables account for 76.73% of the variations economic performance in the short run. The
20
5. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online)
Vol.3, No.7, 2012
DW statistic is approximately 2.0 and larger than R2, implying that the regression is not spurious1. From the
diagnostic test statistics, the null hypotheses of the absence of residual autocorrelation, normality,
misspecification and heteroscedasticity in the residual cannot be rejected. The evidence here indicates that the
macroeconomic variables (Oil performance, Real exchange rate and Inflation rate) are all having statistical
significant impact on performance of the economy. It is evident that oil prices have a negative impact on the
performance of the economy which conforms to findings in other countries that import oil. Therefore concluding
that oil prices play a major role the performance of Kenya’s economy hence calling for adequate macroeconomic
management in relation to this sector.
Table 1.4 presents the wald test of significance which indicate that the variables are significant and there is no
statistical problems of Auto correlation and multi-colliniarity hence satisfying our finding.
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1
According to Granger and Neshold, an R2 > d (dw) is a good rule of thumb to suspect that the estimated
regression is spurious. The estimated regression in this study reveal a non spurious regression as R2
(0.7673)< d ( 2.0039)
21
6. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online)
Vol.3, No.7, 2012
Econometrica, Econometric Society, 75(2), pp459-502.
Shapiro, M. D. and M. W. Watson (1988). “Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations”, in Fischer, S. (ed.), NBER
Macroeconomics Annual 1988, MIT Press.
Appendix
Table 1.1 Unit root tests for residuals
*******************************************************************************
Based on VAR regression of GDP on:
GDP(-1) GDP(-2) GDP(-3) GDP(-4) OP
INFL REER C
56 observations used for estimation from 2007M5 to 2011M12
*******************************************************************************
Test Statistic LL AIC SBC HQC
DF -6.9848 -56.9798 -57.9798 -58.8604 -58.3046
ADF(1) -4.8313 -56.9788 -58.9788 -60.7400 -59.6282
ADF(2) -3.8650 -56.9777 -59.9777 -62.6195 -60.9519
ADF(3) -3.6417 -56.7182 -60.7182 -64.2406 -62.0171
ADF(4) -3.1092 -56.7180 -61.7180 -66.1210 -63.3417
ADF(5) -2.7381 -56.7180 -62.7180 -68.0016 -64.6664
ADF(6) -2.4547 -56.7179 -63.7179 -69.8821 -65.9911
ADF(7) -3.2548 -53.7870 -61.7870 -68.8318 -64.3849
ADF(8) -2.8183 -53.7869 -62.7869 -70.7123 -65.7096
ADF(9) -2.5393 -53.7807 -63.7807 -72.5867 -67.0281
ADF(10) -2.3526 -53.7613 -64.7613 -74.4479 -68.3334
ADF(11) -1.9384 -53.5514 -65.5514 -76.1186 -69.4482
ADF(12) -1.7980 -53.5507 -66.5507 -77.9985 -70.7723
*******************************************************************************
Table 1.2 Co-integration with no Intercepts or Trends in the VAR
Co-integration LR Test Based on Maximal Eigenvalue of the Stochastic Matrix
*******************************************************************************
56 observations from 2007M5 to 2011M12. Order of VAR = 1.
List of variables included in the co-integrating vector: GDP
List of I(0) variables included in the VAR: OP INFL REER
List of eigenvalues in descending order: .040825
*******************************************************************************
Null Alternative Statistic 95% Critical Value 90% Critical Value
r=0 r=1 2.4593 4.1600 3.0400
*******************************************************************************
Use the above table to determine r (the number of co-integrating vectors).
Co-integration with no intercepts or trends in the VAR
Choice of the Number of Co-integrating Relations Using Model Selection Criteria
*******************************************************************************
56 observations from 2007M5 to 2011M12. Order of VAR = 1.
List of variables included in the co-integrating vector: GDP
List of I(0) variables included in the VAR: OP INFL REER
List of eigenvalues in descending order: .040825
*******************************************************************************
Rank Maximized LL AIC SBC HQC
r=0 -76.3548 -79.3548 -82.4711 -80.5713
r=1 -75.1252 -79.1252 -83.2803 -80.7472
*******************************************************************************
AIC = Akaike Information Criterion SBC = Schwarz Bayesian Criterion
HQC = Hannan-Quinn Criterion
22
7. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development www.iiste.org
ISSN 2222-1700 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2855 (Online)
Vol.3, No.7, 2012
Table 1.3: OLS Estimation of a Single Equation in The Unrestricted VAR
*******************************************************************************
Dependent variable is GDP
56 observations used for estimation from 2007M5 to 2011M12
*******************************************************************************
Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio[Prob]
GDP(-1) .89944 .14283 6.2974 [.000]
GDP(-2) .0048291 .19205 .025144 [.980]
GDP(-3) .0073766 .19250 .038321 [.970]
GDP(-4) .8530E-4 .14709 .5799E-3 [1.00]
OP -.0042568 .0067912 -.62681 [.034]
INFL -.012422 .014618 -.84980 [.040]
REER .011249 .0064774 1.7367 [.008]
*******************************************************************************
R-Squared .79269 R-Bar-Squared .76730
S.E. of Regression .94804 F-stat. F( 6, 49) 31.2261[.000]
Mean of Dependent Variable 4.3286 S.D. of Dependent Variable 1.9653
Residual Sum of Squares 44.0406 Equation Log-likelihood -72.7338
Akaike Info. Criterion -79.7338 Schwarz Bayesian Criterion -86.8226
DW-statistic 2.0039 System Log-likelihood -72.7338
*******************************************************************************
A:Lagrange multiplier test of residual serial correlation
B:Ramsey's RESET test using the square of the fitted values
C:Based on a test of skewness and kurtosis of residuals
D:Based on the regression of squared residuals on squared fitted values
Table 1.4 Wald Test of Restriction(s) Imposed on Parameters
*******************************************************************************
Based on VAR regression of GDP on:
GDP(-1) GDP(-2) GDP(-3) GDP(-4) OP
INFL REER
56 observations used for estimation from 2007M5 to 2011M12
*******************************************************************************
Coefficients A1 to A7 are assigned to the above regressors respectively.
List of restriction(s) for the Wald test:
A1+ A2+ A3+ A4+ A5+ A6+ A7=2
*******************************************************************************
Wald Statistic CHSQ( 1)= 239.2899[.000]
*******************************************************************************
Figure 1.1 Plot of Cumulative Sum of Recursive Residuals
Plot of Cumulative Sum of Recursive Residuals
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2007M5 2008M3 2009M1 2009M11 2010M9 2011M7 2011M12
The straight lines represent critical bounds at 5% significance level
23
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