I. The document discusses alternative futures for higher education (HE) provision in the UK, focusing on productivity, core missions, impacts, and partnerships. II. It notes the changing HE marketplace with various providers and delivery models, and how universities need to better align with regional economic needs by understanding high-growth industries and occupations through good labor market data and partnerships. III. Key topics discussed include the devolution of skills training to local levels, graduate migration and employment patterns, career expectations of younger graduates, and the need to improve social mobility through education.

1. Productivity, core
missions and impacts –
Alternatives and
partnerships
Dr. Jamie Mackay | Business Development Manager for HE
Jamie.Mackay@economicmodelling.co.uk | 07740 344750

2. I. Background
II. Good data is key
III. Where East meets West
IV. Post-Graduation
V. Discussion
Outline

3. Background
Alternative
futures for
HE
HE provision
marketplace
Productivity
+
Employability
Devolution
revolution

4. 4
The HE provision
market place
Providers
• Universities
• Alternative / Private
Providers
• Colleges
•In-house
• Overseas
Delivery models
•Traditional
•Part-time
•Online
•Blended
•Work-based
Market
•Supply - students
•Demand - business
•Both

5. 5
Productivity and
Employability
“We need to develop skills
in interaction with
business and in preparing
students for the work
world.”
-Liz Shutt
University Alliance, 2015
>
>
>
Fixing the Foundations (BIS, 2015):
Cites the need for universities to
contribute more to economic
growth by building better and more
direct links with industry
Tuition Fees: Focusing students’
minds. Reflected in Graduate
Careers Survey 2015 and HESA data
on subject uptake
Universities being encouraged not
only to impact on productivity but
also improve employability of their
students

6. 6
The Devolution
Revolution
• November 2015: ‘devolution revolution’
heralded at Spending Review
• Kevin Richardson (HEFCE) providing
running commentary on developments
(e.g. Six Regional Investment
Opportunities for HE - European
Investment Bank, UKTI, Combined
Authority Investment Funds, Devolved
Business Rates…)
• Local Enterprise Partnerships are key.
“Universities must join forces with
employers in their regions to
produce graduates who meet the
changing needs of industry.”
-Mike Boxall
The Guardian, February 2016

7. 7
• To align with needs of regional
economy, universities first need
to understand what those needs
are
• Good Labour Market Intelligence
can uncover those needs by
tapping into industry and
occupation trends:
Good data is
key: • Which industries are set to
grow the most over the next
few years?
• Which graduate occupations
do these industries employ?
• How do our courses compare
to the needs of our regional
economy?

8. Where East meets
West
ipsum
The most beautiful and
powerful presentation
ever
ipsum
2.1m
Jobs (2015)
£21.5k
Average
Earnings
(2015)
4.7m
Population
(2015)
The East Midlands
Exports:
£141.54b
Exports &
Imports
(2015)
Imports:
£87.2b

9. Where East meets
West
ipsum
The most beautiful and
powerful presentation
ever
ipsum
2.5m
Jobs (2015)
£23.2k
Average
Earnings
(2015)
5.7m
Population
(2015)
The West Midlands
Exports:
£176.96b
Exports &
Imports
(2015)
Imports:
£101.72b

10. East Midlands | Top industries
106,471
64,131
91,604
71,962
37,607
112,220
69,154
95,830
74,452
39,482
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Temporary
employment agency
activities
Restaurants and
mobile food service
activities
Hospital activities Public administration
and defence;
compulsory social
security
Warehousing and
storage
2016 Jobs 2019 Jobs
What are the top five industries forecast to grow, 2016-19?

11. West Midlands | Top industries
What are the top five industries forecast to grow, 2016-19?
75,595
118,714
38,918
63,264
30,555
82,324
125,210
41,827
66,051
33,310
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Temporary
employment agency
activities
Hospital activities Warehousing and
storage
Restaurants and
mobile food service
activities
Accounting,
bookkeeping and
auditing activities;
tax consultancy
2016 Jobs 2019 Jobs

12. Within the top Industries, what are the top five occupations (level 3+) forecast to grow,
2016-19?
31,830
18,821
6,890
3,828
9,485
33,218
19,693
7,410
4,249
9,905
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Nurses Nursing auxiliaries
and assistants
Restaurant and
catering
establishment
managers and
proprietors
Primary and nursery
education teaching
professionals
Medical practitioners
Employed in Industry Group (2016) Employed in Industry Group (2019)
East Midlands | Top occupations

13. 38,941
20,417
7,442
12,551
2,924
40,700
21,492
8,044
13,086
3,324
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Nurses Nursing auxiliaries
and assistants
Chartered and
certified accountants
Medical practitioners Primary and nursery
education teaching
professionals
Employed in Industry Group (2016) Employed in Industry Group (2019)
West Midlands | Top occupations
Within the top Industries, what are the top five occupations (level 3+) forecast to grow,
2016-19?

14. Degree
Apprenticeships
Reference: http://www.managers.org.uk/insights/news/2016/march/parents-degree-apprenticeships-
better-than-oxbridge

15. Degree
Apprenticeships
Reference: http://agr.org.uk/news/graduate-recruitment-slows-down-as-apprenticeships-take-
off#.VunyFsc5Qdf

16. Degree
Apprenticeships
“Understand what the demand for a
degree apprenticeship looks like
through use of national and local
information on priority sectors, skills
shortages and labour market trends.
Engage with strategically important
employers and work closely with local
enterprise partnerships (LEPs) and
other stakeholders (such as local
authorities).”

17. 17
Post-
Graduati
on

18. 18
Graduate
migration*
(2012-13)
• Loyals – Graduates who go
to university in the region
where they live, and who are
working in that same region
six months after completing
their degree
• Returners – Those who study
outside their home region, and
then return to that region to
work after graduating
• Stayers – Those who study outside their home region and then stay in that region to work
• Incomers – Those who work in a region in which they neither studied nor were domiciled
* Reference: Ball, C. 2015. Loyals, Stayers, Returners and Incomers: Graduate
migration patterns. HECSU.

19. The graduate class of 2015*
2.
1. 4.
+3.3% graduates hired by
The Times Top 100
Graduate Employers in
2015, compared to 2014:
smaller than expected.
Graduates turning down or
reneging job offers (1,000
positions left unfilled in
2015)
32% of 2016 roles
expected to be filled by
those with work
experience of the
organisations (e.g.
internships, placements
etc.)
3.
Top employers intend to
expand graduate
recruitment by 7.5% in
2016 (fourth consecutive
year)
* Reference: High Fliers Research. 2016. The Graduate
Market in 2016.

20. 20
Where will Graduates
work?
Business local unit size distribution | East
Midlands
Business local unit size distribution | West
Midlands
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 200,000
1
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
1

21. Will Graduates
settle for one
career?
• Generation Y Graduates* (born 1980-
95) expect swift career advancement
and support for these progressions
• Implications are that future generations
will look to move around in the
workforce
• Implications for ongoing, lifelong
learning: From universities, perhaps?
Reference:
https://www.ashridge.org.uk/getattachment/Faculty-
Research/Research/Current-Research/Research-
Projects/Great-Expectations-Managing-Generation-
Y/GENY-Report-2011.pdf

22. Social mobility
“This report is a wake-up call for educators and
employers as well as policy-makers, both local and
national. If social mobility is to take off, much more will
need to be done if there is to be a level playing field of
opportunity in our country. The gulf between the
ambition of a one nation Britain and today’s reality of a
divided Britain is far too wide.”
| Alan Milburn, Chairman,
Social Mobility and Child Poverty, January 2016

23. 23
Discussion
1. Productivity: Employability
2. Core Missions: Provision &
impact
3. Progression pathways:
Schools, Colleges, LEPs,
Business, Alumni

24. Thank
You
Dr. Jamie Mackay
Jamie.Mackay@economicmodelling.co.u
k
07740 344750
www.economicmodelling.co.uk