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AI and Diligence
- 1. (+ Diligence AI) Northwestern University May 12, 2017 Understanding > Prediction Kripa Rajshekhar (Metonymy Labs, Fulbrook Capital Management)
- 2. 1. Long Understanding / Short Prediction 2. How AI must come to Diligence? #ADAI Cause:#ADAI Tweet:@metolabs LinkedIn:kripar
- 7. Third Wave AI The opportunity in diligence #ADAI in practice
- 8. Let’s take for example, the word “take”
- 9. ~5 Billion instances 40+ meanings
- 10. Did you take my stapler? What’s your take on this problem? Take that you wascally wabit One of my favorites: What’s their take ($mm!) from this deal?
- 11. Take? ● S: (v) take (carry out) "take action"; "take steps"; "take vengeance" ● S: (v) take, occupy, use up (require (time or space)) "It took three hours to get to work this morning"; "This event occupied a very short time" ● S: (v) lead, take, direct, conduct, guide (take somebody somewhere) "We lead him to our chief"; "can you take me to the main entrance?"; "He conducted us to the palace" ● S: (v) take, get hold of (get into one's hands, take physically) "Take a cookie!"; "Can you take this bag, please" ● S: (v) assume, acquire, adopt, take on, take (take on a certain form, attribute, or aspect) "His voice took on a sad tone"; "The story took a new turn"; "he adopted an air of superiority"; "She assumed strange manners"; "The gods assume human or animal form in these fables" ● S: (v) take, read (interpret something in a certain way; convey a particular meaning or impression) "I read this address as a satire"; "How should I take this message?" ● S: (v) bring, convey, take (take something or somebody with oneself somewhere) "Take these letters to the boss"; "This brings me to the main point" ● S: (v) take (take into one's possession) "We are taking an orphan from Romania"; "I'll take three salmon steaks" ● S: (v) take (travel or go by means of a certain kind of transportation, or a certain route) "He takes the bus to work"; "She takes Route 1 to Newark" ● S: (v) choose, take, select, pick out (pick out, select, or choose from a number of alternatives) "Take any one of these cards "Choose a good husband for your daughter"; "She selected a pair of shoes from among the dozen the salesgirl had shown her" ● S: (v) accept, take, have (receive willingly something given or offered) "The only girl who would have him was the miller's daughter"; "I won't have this dog in my house!"; "Please accept my present" ● S: (v) fill, take, occupy (assume, as of positions or roles) "She took the job as director of development"; "he occupies the position of manager"; "the young prince will soon occupy the throne" ● S: (v) consider, take, deal, look at (take into consideration for exemplifying purposes) "Take the case of China"; "Consider the following case" ● S: (v) necessitate, ask, postulate, need, require, take, involve, call for, demand (require as useful, just, or proper) "It takes nerve to do what she did"; "success usually requires hard work"; "This job asks a lot of patience and skill"; "This position demands a lot of personal sacrifice"; "This dinner calls for a spectacular dessert"; "This intervention does not postulate a patient's consent" ● S: (v) take (experience or feel or submit to) "Take a test"; "Take the plunge" ● S: (v) film, shoot, take (make a film or photograph of something) "take a scene"; "shoot a movie" ● …. Context + Knowledge
- 12. Understanding, with money involved ... TITLE: Process for manufacturing a DMOS transistor ABSTRACT: In a new process of making a DMOS transistor, the doping of the sloping side walls can be set independently from the doping of the floor region in a trench structure. Furthermore, different dopings can be established among the side walls. This is achieved especially by a sequence of implantation doping, etching to form the trench, formation of a scattering oxide protective layer on the side walls, and two-stage perpendicular and tilted final implantation doping. For DMOS transistors, this achieves high breakthrough voltages even with low turn-on resistances, and reduces the space requirement, in particular with regard to driver structures.
- 13. What are the key ideas? { ["in"], :tag "PP"} { ["a" "new" "process"], :tag "NP"} <<<<<<<<<< { ["of"], :tag "PP"} { ["making"], :tag "VP"}<<<<<<<<<< { ["a" "dmos" "transistor"], :tag "NP"}<<<<<<<<<< { ["the" "doping"], :tag "NP"} { ["of"], :tag "PP"} { ["the" "sloping" "side" "walls"], :tag "NP"} { ["can" "be" "set"], :tag "VP"} { ["independently"], :tag "ADVP"} { ["from"], :tag "PP"} { ["the" "doping"], :tag "NP"} { ["of"], :tag "PP"} { ["the" "floor" "region"], :tag "NP"} { ["in"], :tag "PP"} { ["a" "trench" "structure" "furthermore" "different" "dopings"], :tag "NP"} …
- 15. Wave 1 1960 (handcrafted knowledge systems) Wave 2 2000 (statistical pattern recognition) Wave 3 2020+ (explanatory knowledge models)
- 20. Probabilistic Programming Languages (PPLs) drive economics towards model building ● Shorter: Reduce LOC by 100x for machine learning applications ○ Seismic Monitoring: 28K LOC in C vs. 25 LOC in BLOG ○ Microsoft MatchBox: 15K LOC in C# vs. 300 LOC in Fun ● Faster: Reduce development time by 100x ○ Seismic Monitoring: Several years vs. 1 hour ○ Microsoft TrueSkill: Six months for competent developer vs. 2 hours with Infer.Net ○ Enable quick exploration of many models SOURCE: http://www.darpa.mil/attachments/ppaml-proposers-day.pptx
- 22. Third Wave AI The opportunity in diligence #ADAI in practice
- 23. THE PRUDENT MAN RULE "observe how men of prudence, discretion and intelligence manage their own affairs, not in regard to speculation, but in regard to the permanent disposition of their funds, considering the probable income, as well as the probable safety of the capital to be invested"
- 27. $6 Bn royalties - 93 patents, 767 title words ~$8 million / word. That’s intangible value.
- 28. Billion-dollar topics for later debate and discussion ... 1. Prudent man Vs 2008 2. Tangible Vs intangible metrics 3. Pricing Vs valuation a. Benchmarking Vs generative models b. PPLs to explain more granular data
- 29. Third Wave AI The opportunity in diligence #ADAI in practice
- 30. Median damages awards (in $ millions)
- 31. "The patent attorney has on call the millions of issued patents, with familiar trails to every point of his client's interest."
- 32. 35% chance of owning prime property
- 33. https://www.artificiallawyer.com/2017/05/05/guest-post-the-third-wave-of-legal-ai/ #ADAI highlights - Cases with 9 figure damages - Models of prior judgements - Diligence completeness tests - Find relevant files 4X better
- 34. The S&P 500 Index (1996-2016) 2000-02 Dot Com Bubble Burst 2007-08 The Great Recession >>>> #ADAI can help
- 35. “It was inevitable that meaning would force its way back in” Jean-Pierre Dupuy Cause:#ADAI Tweet:@metolabs LinkedIn:kripar