Michael Chik is an experienced Lean and Agile coach who has worked with many large companies. In this presentation, he discusses how Kanban systems can help project managers add more value by focusing on leadership activities like risk management rather than administrative tasks. He covers Kanban principles, flow efficiency, metrics like lead time, and how to do risk analysis and forecasts. The overall message is that Kanban can enable managers to improve predictability, manage risks proactively, and reliably meet commitments and customer needs.

1. MICHAEL CHIK
http://linkedin.com/in/michaelchik
Senior Agile Coach, McKinsey & Co
Founder, Ars Agilis
ARS AGILIS
AGILE PM
WITH KANBAN & LEAN

2. ARS AGILISLearning Objectives
• How you add value as a Project Manager in an environment of uncertainty
• Understand what a Kanban system is
• Principles & mindset behind the Kanban Method
• Metrics in Kanban systems
• How to manage risks in Kanban and make everything faster
• Learn how to give estimates that work
• How to scale up and manage portfolios

3. ARS AGILISSpeaker introduction
Michael Chik
Lean & Agile Coach for Enterprises & Startups
戚本錦
Work History:
McKinsey & Company Fidelity International
Cathay Pacific Ben & Jerry’s
JP Morgan Walt Disney Company
Standard Chartered Bank Amnesty International
國際特赦組織
michael_chik@mckinsey.com
@arsagilis
casmaron
linkedin.com/in/michaelchik
• Michael is a Lean & Agile Coach with over 15 years of
experience in the software industry. He is an Accredited
Kanban Trainer and Certified Scrum Practitioner.
• He started his Lean & Agile journey around 2001. With a
background in coaching, he strongly believes in the
human aspect of technology.

4. ARS AGILISAre you adding VALUE?
Do you spend your time…
Scheduling meetings?
Coordinating participation?
Collecting data?
Reporting status?
Sending emails?
Running down problems?
Firefighting?

5. ARS AGILISAre you adding VALUE?
Oh, you must be…
… the …
Secretary!

6. ARS AGILISWouldn’t you rather be a…
Leader?
Director?
Risk Manager?
Service Delivery Manager?
All of the above???
Kanban systems help
organizations improve predictability
of knowledge worker activities
Reliable, predictable,
trustworthy services

7. ARS AGILISWouldn’t you rather be a…
Kanban enables
managers to realize their full
potential…
… to manage risk, lead with
confidence, and delight
customers
In short:
TO BE A
LEADER

8. ARS AGILISWhat Is A Kanban System?
© Lean Kanban University

9. ARS AGILISKanban Are Pull Systems
F
F
O
M
N
K
J
I
Pull
Backlog
D
I
Dev
Ready
G
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 3
Test
Ready
5
F
B
CPull
Pull
*
There is capacity here
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
Pulling work from development will
create capacity here too –
the pull signals move upstream!
Now we have capacity to
replenish our ready buffer
This is only an
example workflow!
© Lean Kanban University

10. ARS AGILIS
Processes & Tools
For High Efficiency Kanban Systems
Resource Efficiency
Punctual improvements
Principles & Mindsets
Flow Efficiency
Continuous Innovation

11. ARS AGILISPrinciples & Mindset
1. Start Where
You Are
2. Create a Shared &
Visual Understanding
3. Improve
Evolutionary source: https://goo.gl/0cNfvq

12. ARS AGILIS
Processes & Tools
For High Efficiency Kanban Systems
Resource Efficiency
Punctual improvements
Principles & Mindsets
Flow Efficiency
Continuous Innovation

13. ARS AGILISFlow Efficiency: Theory of Constraints
1. Reduce intake 2. Fix bottleneck3. Increase intake 4. Fix next

14. ARS AGILISFlow over Batch Processing

15. ARS AGILISMetrics: Lead Time
Test
Ready
F
F
FF
F
F F
E
I
G
D
Pull
Cycle Time
M
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 35
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
The clock starts ticking when
we accept the customers
order, not when it is placed!
Until then customer orders
are merely available options
Kanban system lead
time ends when the
item reaches the first
∞ queue
© Lean Kanban University

16. ARS AGILISHistogram
SLA expectation of
16 days with 85% on-time
SLA expectation of
23 days with 95 % on-time
SLA expectation of
12 days with 70% on-time

17. ARS AGILISSERVICE LEVEL AGREEMENTS
0
5
10
15
5
10
15
20
25
30
40
45
55
65
MoreLead Time (Days)
Service A
Frequency
0
10
20
30
Lead Time in Days
Service B
Frequency
Mean 17 days Mean 12 days
Median ~9 days Median ~9 days
85% 15 days
98% 30 days
85% ~40 days
98% 70+ days
© Lean Kanban University

18. ARS AGILISProject Managers Focus on Risks
E
D
F
F
FM
L
P
F
G
Ideas
Dev
Ready
5
Ongoing
Development Testing
Done
3 3
Test
Ready
5
UAT
Release
Ready
∞ ∞
12
34
Defect
Blocking
Issue
Managers must develop
a capability for…
issue management,
risk identification, root cause
analysis, risk reduction &
mitigation

19. ARS AGILISRisk Management & Lead Time
85th
percentile
mean
Risks often cause long
lead timesIdentify risks, their likelihood & impact
(delay that extends lead time).
Eliminating risks or reducing their impact
trims the tail on the distribution.
Trimming the tail moves the mean to
the left, increasing delivery rate!

20. ARS AGILIS
Processes & Tools
For High Efficiency Kanban Systems
Resource Efficiency
Punctual improvements
Principles & Mindsets
Flow Efficiency
Continuous Innovation

21. ARS AGILISMonthly Risk Review Kata / Meeting
Monthly Risk Review Kata
‣ Harvest blocker tickets over a 1 month period
‣ Cluster blockers based on the stories behind the delay
‣ Each cluster represents a risk
‣ Identify Likelihood & Impact
‣ Root Cause Analysis
‣ Reduction & Mitigation actions
http://www.klausleopold.com/2013/09/blocker-clusters-problems-are-not.html
Monthly Risk Review Kata
• Harvest blocker tickets over a 1 month period
• Cluster blockers based on the stories behind the delay
• Each cluster represents a risk
• Identify Likelihood & Impact
• Root Cause Analysis
• Reduction & Mitigation actions

22. ARS AGILISImprovements
Think Do
Check
Continuous improvement
Think Do
Done

23. ARS AGILISForecasts & Planning
Don’t Answer:
“How Long Will
It Take?”
Ask: “When Do
You Need It For?”
And: “What is the
cost of delay?”

24. ARS AGILISForecasts
User stories
/
requirement
17 24
mean
22
Use Statistical
Methods & Probabilistic
Forecasting
0
5
10
15
5
10
15
20
25
30
40
45
55
65
More
Lead Time (Days)
Service A
Frequency
Mean 17 days
Median ~9 days
85% ~40 days
98% 70+ days

25. ARS AGILISIt gets more advanced
Use
Lead Time &
Little’s Law
for portfolio planning
Probabilistic
forecasting

26. ARS AGILISExamples of Forecasts

27. ARS AGILISThe Big Gap Is In The Mindset
source: http://goo.gl/lexe3b

28. ARS AGILISQuestion Time…
Puzzled?
Questions?
Comments?

29. ARS AGILISGo And Be A Rock Star!
STAY IN TOUCH!
michael_chik@mckinsey.com
@arsagilis
casmaron
linkedin.com/in/michaelchik