The document discusses gold seasonality patterns and predictions for gold prices over the remainder of 2009 and into 2010-2012. It notes that gold has historically risen between mid-August and the end of the year, averaging 11.4% gains. The document predicts gold will reach $1240/ounce by early 2010 and could reach $1620-2450/ounce in the next 12-36 months. It also discusses factors like dollar weakness, inflation, and economic uncertainty as supportive of higher gold prices in the medium term.
Rising interest rates have weighed on gold prices recently, with gold struggling and declining over 10% year-to-date. However, central banks continue accommodative monetary policies and rising inflation may offset short-term headwinds from higher rates. While cryptocurrencies have attracted attention, gold and cryptocurrencies are fundamentally different, with gold playing an important strategic role in portfolios as a hedge against volatility and inflation.
The document summarizes developments in the gold and silver markets in October 2012. It notes that gold prices continued rallying due to quantitative easing programs by central banks. Gold funds increased their exposure and ETF buying accelerated. The document predicts gold has further upside potential. Silver also increased sharply but faces supply above $35/oz, with its rally expected to consolidate before further gains.
The document discusses 8 factors that affect gold prices: 1) Social conditions like wars can cause prices to increase as gold is seen as a stable investment. 2) The US dollar, as the main currency for international exchange, influences gold prices inversely - when the dollar rises, gold falls. 3) Gold prices rarely decrease in the current economy but may dip slightly at year-end. 4) Declining prices negatively impact gold mining industries by reducing profitability. 5) Gold prices are more stable than other commodities due to limited supply and universal value. 6) Gold is seen as a stable investment since it increases steadily without major fluctuations. 7) It's good to invest when prices dip to buy more gold as a hedge
Gold prices fell sharply in 2013, dropping $500/oz from late 2012 levels, driven by investors shifting out of gold as central banks signaled an end to quantitative easing programs. This large amount of gold hitting the market at one time was exacerbated by restrictions on gold imports in India. The sell-off has made many high-cost gold mines unprofitable. Global mine output is expected to fall around 15% over the medium term as mines close and new projects are delayed. The author expects gold to trade in a range of $1,000 to $1,750/oz for the rest of the decade as supply and demand factors act as stabilizers to the price slump.
The document discusses the technical outlook for gold prices and their relationship with the US dollar and volatility. It notes that gold faces tough conditions in the near term as the dollar is strengthened by rising yields and risk appetite remains firm. Gold needs to rise above $1810 to show technical support, and the next few weeks may be difficult seasonally. Recent signs show gold's relationship with volatility returning to historical levels, though gold prices have not made significant technical progress and it remains unclear if $1835 resistance can be cleared.
Gold rose 1.5% in October despite higher bond yields and strong equity markets. Four key drivers of gold's performance are economic expansion, market risk, opportunity cost, and momentum. US mint gold coin demand is on track to be the strongest in over two decades, suggesting solid investment demand. Looking forward, some central banks are beginning to raise rates or taper asset purchases, which could impact gold prices depending on implications for interest rates.
The gold price faces rejection at key resistance levels ahead of important US inflation data. Analysts predict gold is on the verge of a major breakout if it can close above $1,834, while the US CPI reading could show the fastest inflation since 1990. Bank analysts say gold prices are poised to break out of their downtrend as real yields plummet and positioning is vulnerable to a squeeze if inflation comes in hotter than expected.
Rising interest rates have weighed on gold prices recently, with gold struggling and declining over 10% year-to-date. However, central banks continue accommodative monetary policies and rising inflation may offset short-term headwinds from higher rates. While cryptocurrencies have attracted attention, gold and cryptocurrencies are fundamentally different, with gold playing an important strategic role in portfolios as a hedge against volatility and inflation.
The document summarizes developments in the gold and silver markets in October 2012. It notes that gold prices continued rallying due to quantitative easing programs by central banks. Gold funds increased their exposure and ETF buying accelerated. The document predicts gold has further upside potential. Silver also increased sharply but faces supply above $35/oz, with its rally expected to consolidate before further gains.
The document discusses 8 factors that affect gold prices: 1) Social conditions like wars can cause prices to increase as gold is seen as a stable investment. 2) The US dollar, as the main currency for international exchange, influences gold prices inversely - when the dollar rises, gold falls. 3) Gold prices rarely decrease in the current economy but may dip slightly at year-end. 4) Declining prices negatively impact gold mining industries by reducing profitability. 5) Gold prices are more stable than other commodities due to limited supply and universal value. 6) Gold is seen as a stable investment since it increases steadily without major fluctuations. 7) It's good to invest when prices dip to buy more gold as a hedge
Gold prices fell sharply in 2013, dropping $500/oz from late 2012 levels, driven by investors shifting out of gold as central banks signaled an end to quantitative easing programs. This large amount of gold hitting the market at one time was exacerbated by restrictions on gold imports in India. The sell-off has made many high-cost gold mines unprofitable. Global mine output is expected to fall around 15% over the medium term as mines close and new projects are delayed. The author expects gold to trade in a range of $1,000 to $1,750/oz for the rest of the decade as supply and demand factors act as stabilizers to the price slump.
The document discusses the technical outlook for gold prices and their relationship with the US dollar and volatility. It notes that gold faces tough conditions in the near term as the dollar is strengthened by rising yields and risk appetite remains firm. Gold needs to rise above $1810 to show technical support, and the next few weeks may be difficult seasonally. Recent signs show gold's relationship with volatility returning to historical levels, though gold prices have not made significant technical progress and it remains unclear if $1835 resistance can be cleared.
Gold rose 1.5% in October despite higher bond yields and strong equity markets. Four key drivers of gold's performance are economic expansion, market risk, opportunity cost, and momentum. US mint gold coin demand is on track to be the strongest in over two decades, suggesting solid investment demand. Looking forward, some central banks are beginning to raise rates or taper asset purchases, which could impact gold prices depending on implications for interest rates.
The gold price faces rejection at key resistance levels ahead of important US inflation data. Analysts predict gold is on the verge of a major breakout if it can close above $1,834, while the US CPI reading could show the fastest inflation since 1990. Bank analysts say gold prices are poised to break out of their downtrend as real yields plummet and positioning is vulnerable to a squeeze if inflation comes in hotter than expected.
The document summarizes information on gold prices and drivers. It includes sections on gold volatility and correlation, local gold prices in China and India, gold futures curves, and long-term and short-term drivers of gold prices. Various charts are provided to illustrate gold's volatility, correlation with other assets, futures curves, and the contribution of economic and market factors to gold returns over time. The document aims to analyze gold price movements and expectations through different data and frameworks.
Gold is a countercyclical asset whose price is influenced by macroeconomic factors like interest rates, inflation, oil prices, and the strength of the US dollar. When economic growth is strong, gold prices tend to fall as alternative investments become more attractive. Conversely, gold prices typically rise during economic downturns as it is considered a safe haven asset. Currently, a weakening US dollar and signs of slowing economic data have contributed to gold maintaining gains above $1900 per ounce.
This document discusses analyzing gold charts through fundamental and technical analysis. It provides details on how technical analysis uses charts to interpret price fluctuations over time to predict future prices. It also describes the different types of charts used (line, bar, candlestick) and how to read them. Factors influencing gold prices like currency exchange rates, inflation, and economic indicators are examined.
The document discusses topics related to the gold market, including gold price movement, inflation, the US dollar, and the future of gold prices. It notes that gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar and inflation. When interest rates are low and the dollar is weak, gold demand increases from investors seeking a hedge. The document predicts gold prices may rise further if the US Federal Reserve announces more quantitative easing. Over the long run, factors like currency inflation and demand for a safe haven asset are expected to continue pushing gold prices gradually higher.
The document discusses the monthly forex seasonality for November 2021. Key points:
- November is typically a good month for US stocks like the S&P 500, with average gains of over 2% for the past 5 and 10 years.
- It is typically a bad month for gold, with average losses of over 2.5% for gold prices against the US dollar.
- The US dollar is generally sideways trading in November, while the British pound and Japanese yen tend to perform well against the dollar. The euro typically underperforms.
This document discusses historical gold prices and provides predictions for future prices. It analyzes factors that influence gold prices like inflation, currency fluctuations, and interest rates. The document predicts gold prices will continue rising in 2021 and beyond due to monetary stimulus increasing inflation and weakening currencies. Analysts expect gold to act as a hedge against volatility and inflation. While gold saw record highs in 2020, some technical indicators now point to a potential trend reversal in the near future.
The document discusses Comex gold futures, the world's leading benchmark for gold prices. Comex gold futures (GC) offer traders superior liquidity and can be used to diversify portfolios, invest in gold as a safe haven, and hedge inflation. Key factors that influence gold prices are US economic reports, monetary policy announcements, inflation data, and geopolitical events. GC futures provide traders an easy way to gain exposure to gold markets through a standardized contract that offers leverage and opportunities in varying market conditions.
Gold prices rose for the second straight week and seventh consecutive day as US inflation data accelerated to a 30-year high. Gold futures settled slightly higher on Friday at $1,868.50 per ounce but were on track for the biggest weekly gain since May due to rising inflation concerns challenging the Federal Reserve's view that inflation will be transitory. While gold was down on the day, it headed for its largest weekly jump in six months as investors saw bullion as a hedge against inflation. Technical analysis of gold futures showed support at $1,831 and resistance at $1,873, with the long-term and medium-term trends both remaining bullish.
The document discusses the price movements of gold (XAU/USD), which has been trading sideways within a range of $1,840-65. While inflation data has supported gold prices recently, pushing them higher, the relative strength index is in overbought territory, suggesting the upward move may slow. Attention is now on upcoming comments from Fed officials that could impact expectations around the pace of monetary policy normalization and inflation.
The document summarizes a report on gold, silver, and copper prices from 2015. It finds:
- Gold prices have fallen over 35% since 2011 and miners have cut costs, with fewer expecting prices to rebound soon. The average long-term planning price among miners is $1,284 per ounce.
- Silver has fallen over 50% since 2011 and is in a slump but demand for its industrial uses will continue.
- Though down from 2011 highs, copper is still profitable around $3 per pound and essential for infrastructure.
- Miners have restructured for the current low price environment but must focus on growth while balancing risks, as investment and demand have slowed. The industry
Gold prices fell as the dollar rose, making gold more expensive for international buyers. Traders are waiting for the upcoming U.S. jobs report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's plans to taper its economic stimulus programs. While inflation concerns provide some support, gold is expected to remain volatile until the jobs data is released.
Gold has historically been seen as a hedge against currency debasement and inflation. However, the document analyzes whether gold is a good investment now. While gold prices have surged in the past due to crises, this may be a temporary increase unless sustained inflation occurs. Central bank buying has supported gold prices, but retail demand is falling as consumers reduce spending during the economic downturn. Gold makes sense as a portfolio hedge but cannot be the primary investment due to its volatility and lack of dividends.
The document discusses several factors that influence gold prices, including income levels, gold's price level, economic crises, government stimulus packages, inflation, interest rates, monsoons, geopolitical tensions, the US dollar, the supply and demand of gold, and technical indicators. Higher incomes increase gold demand while higher gold prices decrease demand. During economic uncertainty, investors view gold as a safe haven asset. Government spending and inflation also boost gold prices. Rural gold demand depends on monsoon rains. The dollar and gold typically have an inverse relationship.
Gold prices struggle near $1,800 as the US dollar recovers from recent losses. Lower US Treasury yields had been supporting gold by weighing on the US dollar, but yields rebounded and the dollar strengthened following upcoming central bank meetings. Traders are watching central bank commentary on growth and inflation as various central banks begin adjusting monetary policies, which could impact gold prices. Technical analysis shows gold bulls were making progress but recent price action has moved lower to test dynamic support levels.
The document discusses gold's global trading market. It notes that while the gold market is inherently global and trades continuously, there is no single integrated market due to differences in regulations and standards across countries. The market includes a range of participants such as producers, refiners, banks, and investors. Wholesale trading facilitates price discovery and transactions between buyers and sellers. Market integrity is important to give participants confidence.
The document discusses gold prices and the outlook for gold. It summarizes an analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence that gold prices are likely to climb back towards last year's all-time highs above $2050 per ounce. It provides details on gold's performance outperforming other commodities in the last 20 years. The document also analyzes technical charts and indicates gold remains entrenched in its current range but faces downside pressure and risks declining further.
Investors Guide to the Gold Market (2).pdfJakeCompton2
Learn how to invest in gold. Learn what investing in gold can do for you. Learn how it can help with savings, survive economic troubles, and secure your future. Download your copy now.
Gold was one of the worst performing investments in 2021, declining almost 4% in September alone. Rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar in the third quarter were headwinds for gold prices. While gold is still seen as a hedge against inflation over the long run, its appeal as a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge have diminished recently due to expectations that the Fed will taper its monetary stimulus. However, if inflation proves more persistent than expected, demand for gold could rise again as an inflation hedge.
The document discusses gold price exchange rates and technical analysis of gold prices. It covers:
- The XAU/USD exchange rate for gold to the US dollar and how gold price fluctuations affect currencies.
- Common candlestick patterns in gold prices like the Piercing Line and Three White Soldiers patterns that indicate bullish trends.
- A technical analysis of recent gold price gains, noting support around $1810 and resistance at $1882, $1900, and $1915.
- How the US dollar index moving lower and inflation concerns support higher gold prices, though Fed policy could impact prices.
The document discusses the XAUUSD currency pair, which represents the price of gold in US dollars. It covers what XAUUSD is, factors that influence gold prices like supply and demand, and provides an outlook for gold prices. Charts of historical XAUUSD prices are included, showing gold in an ongoing range between support at $1,764/oz and resistance at $1,836/oz. Recent gains in gold have taken prices back towards resistance levels, and further rises would require a break above $1,789.
The document discusses the relationship between gold prices, the US dollar, and real interest rates. It shows that gold prices have an inverse correlation with both the dollar and real interest rates. When the dollar is weak and real rates are low or negative, gold prices tend to rise. Recent rises in gold above $2,000 have coincided with dollar depreciation since spring 2020 and extremely dovish monetary policy keeping real rates low. Going forward, further dollar weakness could support ongoing gold strength, though short-term dollar bounces are also possible.
The document summarizes information on gold prices and drivers. It includes sections on gold volatility and correlation, local gold prices in China and India, gold futures curves, and long-term and short-term drivers of gold prices. Various charts are provided to illustrate gold's volatility, correlation with other assets, futures curves, and the contribution of economic and market factors to gold returns over time. The document aims to analyze gold price movements and expectations through different data and frameworks.
Gold is a countercyclical asset whose price is influenced by macroeconomic factors like interest rates, inflation, oil prices, and the strength of the US dollar. When economic growth is strong, gold prices tend to fall as alternative investments become more attractive. Conversely, gold prices typically rise during economic downturns as it is considered a safe haven asset. Currently, a weakening US dollar and signs of slowing economic data have contributed to gold maintaining gains above $1900 per ounce.
This document discusses analyzing gold charts through fundamental and technical analysis. It provides details on how technical analysis uses charts to interpret price fluctuations over time to predict future prices. It also describes the different types of charts used (line, bar, candlestick) and how to read them. Factors influencing gold prices like currency exchange rates, inflation, and economic indicators are examined.
The document discusses topics related to the gold market, including gold price movement, inflation, the US dollar, and the future of gold prices. It notes that gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar and inflation. When interest rates are low and the dollar is weak, gold demand increases from investors seeking a hedge. The document predicts gold prices may rise further if the US Federal Reserve announces more quantitative easing. Over the long run, factors like currency inflation and demand for a safe haven asset are expected to continue pushing gold prices gradually higher.
The document discusses the monthly forex seasonality for November 2021. Key points:
- November is typically a good month for US stocks like the S&P 500, with average gains of over 2% for the past 5 and 10 years.
- It is typically a bad month for gold, with average losses of over 2.5% for gold prices against the US dollar.
- The US dollar is generally sideways trading in November, while the British pound and Japanese yen tend to perform well against the dollar. The euro typically underperforms.
This document discusses historical gold prices and provides predictions for future prices. It analyzes factors that influence gold prices like inflation, currency fluctuations, and interest rates. The document predicts gold prices will continue rising in 2021 and beyond due to monetary stimulus increasing inflation and weakening currencies. Analysts expect gold to act as a hedge against volatility and inflation. While gold saw record highs in 2020, some technical indicators now point to a potential trend reversal in the near future.
The document discusses Comex gold futures, the world's leading benchmark for gold prices. Comex gold futures (GC) offer traders superior liquidity and can be used to diversify portfolios, invest in gold as a safe haven, and hedge inflation. Key factors that influence gold prices are US economic reports, monetary policy announcements, inflation data, and geopolitical events. GC futures provide traders an easy way to gain exposure to gold markets through a standardized contract that offers leverage and opportunities in varying market conditions.
Gold prices rose for the second straight week and seventh consecutive day as US inflation data accelerated to a 30-year high. Gold futures settled slightly higher on Friday at $1,868.50 per ounce but were on track for the biggest weekly gain since May due to rising inflation concerns challenging the Federal Reserve's view that inflation will be transitory. While gold was down on the day, it headed for its largest weekly jump in six months as investors saw bullion as a hedge against inflation. Technical analysis of gold futures showed support at $1,831 and resistance at $1,873, with the long-term and medium-term trends both remaining bullish.
The document discusses the price movements of gold (XAU/USD), which has been trading sideways within a range of $1,840-65. While inflation data has supported gold prices recently, pushing them higher, the relative strength index is in overbought territory, suggesting the upward move may slow. Attention is now on upcoming comments from Fed officials that could impact expectations around the pace of monetary policy normalization and inflation.
The document summarizes a report on gold, silver, and copper prices from 2015. It finds:
- Gold prices have fallen over 35% since 2011 and miners have cut costs, with fewer expecting prices to rebound soon. The average long-term planning price among miners is $1,284 per ounce.
- Silver has fallen over 50% since 2011 and is in a slump but demand for its industrial uses will continue.
- Though down from 2011 highs, copper is still profitable around $3 per pound and essential for infrastructure.
- Miners have restructured for the current low price environment but must focus on growth while balancing risks, as investment and demand have slowed. The industry
Gold prices fell as the dollar rose, making gold more expensive for international buyers. Traders are waiting for the upcoming U.S. jobs report, which could influence the Federal Reserve's plans to taper its economic stimulus programs. While inflation concerns provide some support, gold is expected to remain volatile until the jobs data is released.
Gold has historically been seen as a hedge against currency debasement and inflation. However, the document analyzes whether gold is a good investment now. While gold prices have surged in the past due to crises, this may be a temporary increase unless sustained inflation occurs. Central bank buying has supported gold prices, but retail demand is falling as consumers reduce spending during the economic downturn. Gold makes sense as a portfolio hedge but cannot be the primary investment due to its volatility and lack of dividends.
The document discusses several factors that influence gold prices, including income levels, gold's price level, economic crises, government stimulus packages, inflation, interest rates, monsoons, geopolitical tensions, the US dollar, the supply and demand of gold, and technical indicators. Higher incomes increase gold demand while higher gold prices decrease demand. During economic uncertainty, investors view gold as a safe haven asset. Government spending and inflation also boost gold prices. Rural gold demand depends on monsoon rains. The dollar and gold typically have an inverse relationship.
Gold prices struggle near $1,800 as the US dollar recovers from recent losses. Lower US Treasury yields had been supporting gold by weighing on the US dollar, but yields rebounded and the dollar strengthened following upcoming central bank meetings. Traders are watching central bank commentary on growth and inflation as various central banks begin adjusting monetary policies, which could impact gold prices. Technical analysis shows gold bulls were making progress but recent price action has moved lower to test dynamic support levels.
The document discusses gold's global trading market. It notes that while the gold market is inherently global and trades continuously, there is no single integrated market due to differences in regulations and standards across countries. The market includes a range of participants such as producers, refiners, banks, and investors. Wholesale trading facilitates price discovery and transactions between buyers and sellers. Market integrity is important to give participants confidence.
The document discusses gold prices and the outlook for gold. It summarizes an analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence that gold prices are likely to climb back towards last year's all-time highs above $2050 per ounce. It provides details on gold's performance outperforming other commodities in the last 20 years. The document also analyzes technical charts and indicates gold remains entrenched in its current range but faces downside pressure and risks declining further.
Investors Guide to the Gold Market (2).pdfJakeCompton2
Learn how to invest in gold. Learn what investing in gold can do for you. Learn how it can help with savings, survive economic troubles, and secure your future. Download your copy now.
Gold was one of the worst performing investments in 2021, declining almost 4% in September alone. Rising bond yields and a stronger US dollar in the third quarter were headwinds for gold prices. While gold is still seen as a hedge against inflation over the long run, its appeal as a safe-haven asset and inflation hedge have diminished recently due to expectations that the Fed will taper its monetary stimulus. However, if inflation proves more persistent than expected, demand for gold could rise again as an inflation hedge.
The document discusses gold price exchange rates and technical analysis of gold prices. It covers:
- The XAU/USD exchange rate for gold to the US dollar and how gold price fluctuations affect currencies.
- Common candlestick patterns in gold prices like the Piercing Line and Three White Soldiers patterns that indicate bullish trends.
- A technical analysis of recent gold price gains, noting support around $1810 and resistance at $1882, $1900, and $1915.
- How the US dollar index moving lower and inflation concerns support higher gold prices, though Fed policy could impact prices.
The document discusses the XAUUSD currency pair, which represents the price of gold in US dollars. It covers what XAUUSD is, factors that influence gold prices like supply and demand, and provides an outlook for gold prices. Charts of historical XAUUSD prices are included, showing gold in an ongoing range between support at $1,764/oz and resistance at $1,836/oz. Recent gains in gold have taken prices back towards resistance levels, and further rises would require a break above $1,789.
The document discusses the relationship between gold prices, the US dollar, and real interest rates. It shows that gold prices have an inverse correlation with both the dollar and real interest rates. When the dollar is weak and real rates are low or negative, gold prices tend to rise. Recent rises in gold above $2,000 have coincided with dollar depreciation since spring 2020 and extremely dovish monetary policy keeping real rates low. Going forward, further dollar weakness could support ongoing gold strength, though short-term dollar bounces are also possible.
There are interrelationships between the US dollar, gold, oil, and real estate. Historically, the dollar was linked to gold through the gold standard until 1971. There are now inverse relationships between the dollar and both gold and oil. When the dollar declines in value, the prices of gold and oil tend to rise due to factors like inflation hedging, portfolio diversification, and OPEC pricing oil in dollars. Oil prices can also indirectly impact gold prices by affecting the broader economy and costs of gold mining operations.
- The document discusses gold sentiment and provides a bullish outlook for gold prices.
- It notes that gold timers are less bullish now than in late July despite gold prices being 18% higher, which is viewed as a bullish contrarian signal.
- Sentiment indicators suggest a "wall of worry" has been rebuilt in the gold market, which could allow for further price rallies going into 2012.
Gold is often considered an inflation hedge but the data does not clearly show it is a reliable hedge against short-term inflation. While gold tends to preserve value over the long run, its correlation with annual inflation rates is negative. Hedge funds have recently increased bullish bets on gold, suggesting more buying pressure, but gold prices still need to close above key resistance levels like $1,800 for the bull trend to continue. Technical indicators show gold floating above short-term support but needing confirmation to sustain an upside move.
The document discusses gold's recent performance and outlook. It notes that gold's brief rally after falling did not provide it strength, as the consolidation period was longer than past bottoms. Credit spreads declining to unprecedented low levels is typically bearish for gold, though it could signal economic problems later. While economic confidence remains high, supporting risk assets over gold for now, credit spreads may abruptly widen if a crisis emerges, benefiting gold.
The document discusses several factors that may impact the price of gold, including inflation, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risks like war, interest rates, and supply and demand dynamics. While inflation does not have a strong direct correlation with gold prices, currency depreciation and geopolitical instability tend to drive gold prices higher. Interest rates also have an inverse relationship with gold, as rising rates make bonds and dividends more attractive alternatives. Supply and demand from both institutional investors and countries like China and India are also important determinants of the gold price.
- Gold has experienced strong performance in some decades but lower returns in other periods, especially when US investors could not directly own gold in the 1970s.
- Over the long run from 1971-2011, gold has not outperformed major stock indices and produced lower average returns than US small cap stocks.
- Gold does not reliably hedge against inflation and its price volatility is higher than inflation measures.
- While gold may provide diversification benefits when held in small amounts as part of a broader commodity strategy, it does not generate income or cash flows like stocks and is a speculative asset.
The document discusses 8 factors that affect gold prices: 1) Social conditions like wars can cause prices to increase sharply. 2) The US dollar value influences gold prices inversely - when the dollar rises, gold falls and vice versa. 3) Gold prices rarely decrease under normal socioeconomic conditions. 4) Decreases negatively impact mining industries by reducing profitability. 5) Gold prices are more stable than other commodities due to limited supply and universal valuation. 6) Gold is seen as a stable investment unaffected by inflation, making it attractive for investment. 7) It is good to invest when prices dip to buy more gold as a hedge. 8) Experts predict gold prices will stabilize in mid-2012 and rise steadily after
The document discusses 8 factors that affect gold prices: 1) Social conditions like wars can cause prices to increase as gold is seen as a stable investment. 2) The US dollar, as the main currency for international exchange, influences gold prices inversely - when the dollar rises, gold falls. 3) Gold prices rarely decrease in the current economy but may dip slightly at year-end. 4) Declining prices negatively impact gold mining industries by reducing profitability. 5) Gold prices are more stable than other commodities due to limited supply and universal value. 6) Gold is seen as a stable investment since it increases steadily without major fluctuations. 7) It's good to invest when prices dip slightly. 8) Experts predict
The document discusses gold's performance in Q1 2013 and analyzes the recent pullback in gold prices. It makes the following key points:
- Gold prices fell 3.6% in Q1 amid gains in other assets, and dropped another 10% in mid-April. However, gold's volatility declined.
- Analysts have questioned if this signals the end of gold's bull run, but structural changes over the past decade have supported long-term price increases despite past corrections.
- Gold prices have previously fallen more than 10% seven times and over 20% three times since 2001 during its bull run, with prices rebounding after each correction. Emerging market demand has increased during past pullbacks
The document discusses the recent rally in commodity and equity markets after predictions of a 2016 US recession. It provides details on positive recent US economic data that has driven the rally, including upward revisions to Q4 GDP and better-than-expected employment numbers. However, it cautions that the global economic outlook remains uncertain, with risks including weak data from China and Japan and potential "Brexit." It argues that while recession may not have reached the US yet, economic tides can change rapidly.
Discover why gold & silver will never be worthless like other investments. Learn why gold & silver is a financial safe-house for investors. Uncover how metals can diversify your portfolio in times of inflation & market stress. Learn why gold & silver is undervalued and how to take advantage of it. Features: supply & demand charts, precious metals trends, long & short term price projections and more!
- Gold markets rallied in late August after dovish comments from Powell suggested continued loose monetary policy. Breaking above $1830 could push gold higher to $1910.
- Technical analysis shows gold in a "buy the dips" environment unless it falls below key support at $1680. Resistance remains at $1830 and $1835.
- Inflation measures like the PCE Price Index rising could continue supporting gold as a hedge. A weaker US dollar and falling bond yields also boost gold prices. Upside momentum remains if $1819 resistance is surpassed on the way to higher targets.
The document analyzes the gold market and provides a forecast for XAU/USD (gold prices). It notes that gold prices continue to correct from highs in a potential "Head and Shoulders" pattern. It expects gold to test support near $1740 before potentially rebounding to over $1885. However, rising US Treasury yields make gold more susceptible to declines. The analysis concludes that gold may consolidate in the near term but broader declines are possible if yields continue rising.
- Gold has suffered historical drawdowns in July 2021, falling close to key support levels of $1,750 per ounce.
- The current price action and movement of the USD Index is similar to patterns seen in 2012, suggesting gold may see a short-term relief rally.
- However, analogies to gold's movements in 2008 and 2012 point to an overall bearish outlook, with the possibility of further drawdowns in the coming weeks or months, before finding a lasting bottom in the $1,450 to $1,500 range.
The document discusses various topics related to gold prices and their relationship to the economy. It covers how gold affects the economy, how gold prices reveal the state of the US economy, key events in gold price history like the gold rushes and Nixon abandoning the gold standard, and reasons why investors purchase gold as a hedge.
Shamik Gold Standard & Reasons 2011 SeptShamik Bhose
The document discusses 11 reasons why gold prices could rise significantly in the next 2-4 years, reaching as high as $5,000-$10,000 per ounce. It outlines factors such as heavy government debt leading to currency devaluation, lack of new gold supply discoveries, central banks and large companies increasing gold reserves, and many analysts predicting much higher future gold prices. Over 130 analysts are cited who believe gold will reach prices from $2,500-$20,000 per ounce in the next few years due to ongoing currency debasement and other supply and demand factors driving gold higher.
A list of blogs and articles by Shamik bhose...a list of links and summary of TV interviews of Shamik on National business channels like ET Now or Cnbc or Zee Business news etc etc..
The document provides an overview of the crude oil market in summer 2012. It discusses several factors impacting crude oil prices at the time, including:
1. A projected 17% drop in North Sea crude oil production in September due to maintenance at the Buzzard oil field.
2. Ongoing tensions between Iran and Western countries over Iran's nuclear program, as well as fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Uncertainty in the Middle East from Syria's civil war and the potential for supply shocks from political instability in other oil producing countries.
The document analyzes supply and demand trends and geopolitical risks that were supporting elevated crude oil prices at
1) The document discusses how the world is facing an imminent economic and social disaster due to decades of monetary mismanagement, debt accumulation, and moral and financial decadence.
2) Rising food and fuel prices are causing empty stomachs to riot in many countries, leading to regime changes, and this instability will likely spread across the globe.
3) The world is on the precipice of a hyperinflationary depression of unprecedented scale, as real money, food, and fuel are running out simultaneously just as governments have no ability to alleviate problems and stave off disaster.
Central banks, especially those in emerging markets, hold less than 4% of their foreign exchange reserves in gold on average, which is below the suggested optimal level of 4.6-7% for diversification. A new report from the World Gold Council finds that valuing gold holdings in local currency rather than US dollars could allow the optimal level to rise to 8.4-10% without adding risk. The report concludes that this valuation method minimizes the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations and improves risk-adjusted returns for central banks. In the first quarter of 2012, gold futures rose 6% beating other commodities and dollar indices, driven in part by signals from the US Federal Reserve that more stimulus may be needed for the US economy
The document discusses rising global debt levels and their implications. Total global debt, including government and private sector debt, has nearly tripled since 2001 to over $82 trillion. In comparison, total global equity assets are only around $44 trillion, resulting in a negative global net worth of around $38 trillion. High and rising debt levels increase the risk of fiscal and financial crises for governments and could plunge countries into crisis if debt is not rolled over successfully. The higher global debt climbs, the greater the risks become.
The document discusses 11 reasons why gold prices could rise significantly in the next 2-4 years, reaching as high as $5,000-$10,000 per ounce. It cites factors like heavy government debt leading to currency devaluation, lack of new gold supply discovery, central banks and large companies increasingly purchasing gold to diversify reserves, and widespread analyst predictions of much higher gold prices. Over 130 analysts are referenced who foresee gold's peak price being at least $2,500/ounce, with 90 predicting it will surpass $5,000/ounce, within the next few years.
The document discusses several topics:
1) FX is a commodity, not an asset, as it does not provide utility to the holder independently of price changes. Commodities are used as inputs in production while currencies enable exchange.
2) There are strong correlations between various markets such as the US dollar index, DJIA, gold, oil, and commodities indexes. Weakness in the dollar tends to correlate with strength in commodities and stocks.
3) To generate returns or "alpha" in FX, one should take a trading approach like a produce seller, aiming for frequent small profits rather than trying to predict long-term price movements.
4) Quantitative easing policies have added
The document discusses gold seasonality patterns and predictions for gold prices over the remainder of 2009 and into 2010-2012. It notes that gold has historically risen between mid-August and the end of the year, averaging 11.4% gains. The document predicts gold will reach $1240/ounce by early 2010 and could reach $1620-2450/ounce in the next 12-36 months. It also discusses factors like dollar weakness, inflation, and economic uncertainty as supportive of higher gold prices in the medium term.
Satellite data has confirmed that groundwater levels are declining rapidly in some parts of northwest India inhabited by 114 million people. Between 2002 and 2008, three Indian states lost a volume of groundwater equal to over twice the capacity of Lake Mead, the largest US reservoir. The depletion is mostly due to unsustainable pumping of groundwater for irrigation, which has tripled India's irrigated area since 1970. Without action to curb water usage, drinking water shortages and reduced crop production are likely to result.
Equities, interest rates, energy, commodities and currencies have become more correlated in their movements in recent years. This lack of diversification increases volatility and risk for portfolios. The document discusses how quantitative easing policies have caused liquidity to spread beyond domestic markets, influencing commodity prices globally and reducing benefits from diversification across asset classes.
The document discusses chaos theory and the perception of risk in markets. It argues that after periods of strong returns, markets tend to enter periods of choppy trading as returns average out. The author believes the Indian market has entered such a period after high returns from 2002-2008. Sentiment indicators are swinging quickly between fear and complacency. The author advises a cautious approach, focusing on stock picking rather than trying to replicate past decade's performance in current conditions.
The document discusses Japan's deteriorating financial situation, with a debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 200%, the highest in the world besides Zimbabwe. This has led S&P to downgrade Japan's credit rating, raising concerns that other countries like the US could face similar downgrades if deficits are not reduced. Rising debt is a major global problem with nations having to pay higher interest rates, making deficits harder to manage.
Ray & Santiniketan, a little drop of dewShamik Bhose
This summary provides high-level information about the document in 3 sentences:
The document discusses Satyajit Ray's time at Santiniketan and memories the author has of him from their days there, where he was known as Manik-da. It describes interactions between Ray and the author, including a last meeting in Calcutta where Ray seemed tired. The author also shares memories of performing in a play in Santiniketan and interactions with other students from those days.
Shamik bhose profile as director of commodity & currencyShamik Bhose
Shamik Bhose has over 24 years of experience in commodity, currency, and financial markets. He is currently the Executive Director of Commodity, Currency and Interest rate futures markets for Microsec Group. Previously, he held senior positions with major trading houses and e-trading ventures. He has expertise in developing client bases, identifying new markets and business opportunities, and advising exchanges on contract design.
The document discusses peak oil theory and political factors affecting the oil market. It argues that while Hubbert's peak oil theory is valid, geological limitations alone will not cause economic issues due to vast untapped reserves. However, the oil market is not truly free and government intervention in exploration, pricing, consumption and other areas could potentially lead to constraints on supply and serious economic problems in the future for political rather than geological reasons. The bottom line is that sustained commodity shortages only occur when governments interfere in markets.
1. Gold is set to continue its record run this year ; Can prices double in the next 12-36 months ie.
go to 1240$ -1620$- 2450$ ??
We begin Gold and the Dollar with a look at Gold Seasonality
Since the beginning of its long-term bull market gold has tended to be flat from late May through
to mid August. In fact, during the 7-year period from 2001 through to 2007 the average change in
the gold price between 21st May and 15th August was only 3% and the maximum change was
only 6%. Last year was an outlier in that it produced a 15.6% decline during the mentioned
period.
Here are the details, updated to include this year's performance:
Year: Net Change in Spot Gold Price Between 21st May and 15th Aug:
2001 -2.8%
2002 -0.3%
2003 -2.4%
2004 +3.9%
2005 +6.0%
2006 -5.2%
2007 +0.9%
2008 -15.6%
2009 -1.0%
Clearly, gold followed its seasonal pattern over the past 12 weeks. Let's now look at what we can
expect if gold follows its seasonal pattern over the remainder of the year.
Since the beginning of its long-term bull market gold has ALWAYS risen between mid August
and the final trading day of the year. The gain over this period has ranged from 1.1% to 24.7%,
with an average of 11.4%. Moreover, even last year's September-November crash failed to
prevent gold from keeping this perfect record intact. Here are the details:
Year: Net Change in Spot Gold Price Between 15th Aug and 31st Dec:
2001 +1.1%
2002 +10.5%
2003 +14.4%
2004 +9.6%
2005 +17.0%
2006 +2.1%
2007 +24.7%
2008 +12.0%
2009 + 8.25% 17 August to 22 Sept
2. In other words, the seasonal pattern represents a tailwind for gold over the
remainder of the year.
The yellow metal is very near its all-time high of $1030 per ounce, reached earlier in 2008’Feb
And its value would continue its unprecedented upswing, now eight years running, amid
continuing economic and geopolitical turmoil. Seen as a safe-haven investment, the metal does
best when many other factors are at their worst. With uncertainty in the market about how long
the global credit crisis will drag on, the falling value of the US dollar and fears about tightening
oil supply, have been underlined with rising hedge fund activity, ETF buying from investors
diversifying and the price has also been helped by falling mining production, which dropped by
about 1 per cent last year due to a sharp decrease in South Africa, home to the world's largest
deposits.
The weakness of the dollar has also contributed greatly to the strong run of the metal, which is
denominated in the US currency and thus becomes more valuable for investors in other
currencies as the greenback falls. Expectations of further dollar weakening, has led many analysts
to predict that the gold price will continue to rise. Some cautioned, however, that it could hit a
short-term speed bump as investors sell out and take profits but that the overall geopolitical and
economic picture bodes well for the price of the metal.
Goldfields, said last year that they feel quite comfortable about gold at $1,200 per ounce in the
next 24 months.
Even at those levels, in inflation-adjusted terms, it still has a long way to reach the equivalent of
the $850 level it reached in 1980. In today's market, that would equal about $2,500 per ounce.
Targets of 920$ and then 1030$ shall be seen as a pit stop for gold, occasional volatility and
corrections due to technical and monetary reasons should be taken into account. Thus to
conclude we must take into account both fundamental and monetarist reasoning for gold price
rise and a sudden change in either shall bring out about short term profit booking and thus
volatility – this could basically come from the behavior of dollar and the views from the Federal
Reserve. In current context assuming that there are no more interest rate cuts left in the arsenal of
the FED to stall any possible credit crunch or the recessionary meltdown from spreading further,
dollar will decline. That plus the rise of crude oil prices, which is inflationary is providing a boost
to gold. These trends are usually self re-enforcing and the cross current of issues should take gold
and silver much higher before the trend tires or its under lying reasons change !!
It was said in 2008 * In a desperate effort to revive the economy and the electoral chances of the
Republican Party, the US Federal Government will become the primary engine of debt/money
expansion (inflation) during 2008. As a result, the people who doubt the ability of the powers-
that-be to maintain a high level of monetary expansion in the face of a 'tapped out' consumer will
receive an "Inflation 101" course. They will learn that there is no limit to the amount of bonds that
the US government can issue to the Fed in exchange for newly-created currency.
Note: The "pushing on a string" analogy often cited in discussions about the inflationary abilities
of governments and central banks is based on the patently false assumption that every increase in
money supply will be met by an equivalent increase in money demand with no change in the
price (purchasing power) of money. This assumption goes against basic economic law. Until the
law of supply and demand is repealed there will be no question that an entity with the power to
3. expand the supply of money ad infinitum will also have the power to reduce the purchasing
power of the money (bring about a general increase in prices, that is). The challenge facing the
monetary authorities isn't to maintain a high level of inflation; it's to do so whilst keeping
inflation FEARS in check.
Is that Provocative; yes it is
We are presently bullish on both gold and the US$, but this does not mean that we expect gold
and the Dollar Index to rally together over the next few months. Rather, it means that we think
the upside potential outweighs the downside risk in both markets. In the case of the Dollar Index
we think that a bottoming process is underway and that while this process continues the
downside risk will be limited to a test of the last November(2008) low (74-75). In gold's case, the
potential will exist for significant additional gains until the dollar's bottoming process is almost
complete, following which a sizeable gold-market corrective phase via sideways range bound
trade could begin.
If the dollar's current bottoming process follows the typical historical pattern then it will take
3-6 months to complete, after which a strong rebound should begin. This suggests to us that
intermediate-term US$ rally will start before the end of next March and that gold will reach
an intermediate-term peak during the first two months of the next year by Feb 2010 (since
turning points in the gold market usually lead turning points in the currency market) and this
could be 1240$ per ounce .
We expect that that real interest rates will remain low; and that financial market volatility will
increase. If so then the backdrop will remain 'gold bullish' and a US$-inspired 2-4 month
downturn in the gold market during the first half of the next year will be followed by another
powerful advance. Our guess is that gold will end 2010 above $1600, but will trade at a $940-
1250 at some point during the first half of the year.
Gold's upward trend relative to the base metals should continue during 2009…. Also, we expect
that gold will move sharply higher relative to oil. Further to the above discussion, we suspect
that gold is within about 10-12 weeks of an important peak. In the mean time, however,
significant additional gains are likely amidst some intense volatility as gold gyrates to
movements in the currency market namely the yen and the Euro amongst the components of the
US$ Index.
Gold commenced a secular bull market relative to all fiat currencies, the CRB Index, bonds and
most stock market indices during 1999-2001. This secular trend will peak sometime between 2014
and 2020. Commodities, as represented by the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI), commenced
a secular BULL market in 2001 in nominal dollar terms. The first major upward leg in this bull
market ended during the first half of 2008, but a long-term peak won't occur until 2014-2020.
US $ index to gold and crude oil --There is a strong inverse correlation between the $ index
and both gold and crude oil. However, crude oil's correlation has strengthened while gold's
has weakened.
4. 2007 US $/gold -91%
2007 US $/crude oil -96%
2008 US $/gold -76%
2008 US $/crude oil -82%
2009 US $/gold -64%
2009 US $/crude oil -96%
Conclusion -- if the US $ index stays weak, crude oil was soon set for another rally even
though there is a seasonal tendency for crude oil to weaken from the last week of Sep until the
first week of Dec. One can take argument with some conclusions but the strikingly high
correlations in the $ versus crude oil and the $ versus the gold is persisting and a higher crude
oil price is pro-inflation, thus gold friendly.
Current Market Situation
Silver versus Gold
As discussed many times over the years, the silver/gold ratio tends to function as an indicator of
financial and/or economic confidence in that silver tends to out-perform gold when confidence is
rising and under-perform gold when confidence is falling. As a result, we expect that silver will
do well relative to gold until the stock market reaches an intermediate-term peak, after which it
will become relatively weak. For this reason, SLV (the silver ETF) put options would provide a
means of hedging a portfolio heavily laden with gold- and silver-related investments. This is just
something to bear in mind.
The US Dollar Drivers ;
Almost all the international trade in oil is conducted in US dollars, which means, according to
some that a higher price of oil will create additional demand for dollars and, therefore, that a
rising oil price is bullish for the dollar. This 'logic' is back-to-front, however, because one of the
main reasons for the higher US$ oil price is WEAKNESS in the US$.
It is true that higher prices will tend to increase the demand for a currency (if prices are higher
then more money will be needed for each purchase), but this is not a 'chicken or the egg' situation
because prices wouldn't have risen in the first place unless there had been an increase in the
supply of the currency relative to the demand for the currency. The way it works is that inflation
(growth in the supply of money) causes the purchasing power of a currency to fall, resulting in
an increase in the demand for the currency. (The current price of anything, including currencies,
is, by definition, the price that brings supply and demand into balance; so an increase in supply
will always lead to a corresponding increase in demand and, most likely, a lower price). But if
this increase in currency demand is followed by a further increase in currency supply then more
purchasing power is lost, prices rise again and more currency is then needed to complete each
transaction (there's a further increase in the demand for currency). This process will continue
until the currency becomes completely worthless or until the inflation ends.
5. Sbhose@microsec.in www.microsec.in Phones 0091-33-30512100 Fax 009133-30512020
The argument is, in effect, that a loss in the dollar's value relative to oil is BULLISH for the dollar,
which implies that the faster the dollar loses its purchasing power the more bullish it will be. This
is, of course, ridiculous.
The fact is that the world could make do with almost any quantity of US dollars; the purchasing
power of the US$ would simply adjust based on the dollar's supply relative to its demand.
Obviously, if the global supply of dollars were to suddenly contract then this could cause big
problems because today's price levels for assets, debt, commodities, and everything else are
based on the current dollar supply. However, if dollar inflation had been consistently lower over
the past 20 years such that the total supply of dollars was now half its current level there would
be no dollar shortage; instead, each dollar would buy, on average, twice as much as it currently
buys.
We are in full agreement with the notion that a contraction in the US current account deficit
would be accompanied by a global economic downturn, but implying that the reduction in the
current account deficit was the root cause of the subsequent economic downturn would be akin
to saying that a lack of drugs was the root cause of the sickness felt by a drug addict who was
trying to 'kick the habit'. The financial system has become addicted to a high level of inflation and
the solution, according to many others, is to continue 'feeding the habit'.
On a side note, there will be no danger of the gold bull market coming to an end as long as
continuing to 'feed the habit' is widely believed to be the right economic remedy.
From trade deficits to budget deficits to GDP-growth differences to the absurd "massive dollar
short position" theory, we never cease to be impressed by the large number of irrelevant factors
that are regularly put forward to explain and forecast currency exchange rates. In our opinion,
the only things that matter over long time periods (periods exceeding 5 years) are inflation rate
differentials.
Specifically, if Currency A is inflated at a faster rate than Currency B over a long period,
causing it to lose its purchasing power at a faster rate, then Currency A will be in a long-term
downward trend relative to Currency B. End of story.
Over shorter time periods (periods of 6 months to 2 years) the only things that matter are real
interest rates and interest rate spreads, where the real interest rate is calculated by subtracting
the EXPECTED rate of currency depreciation from the nominal interest rate.
Another Point of View
I think most analysts hit the nail on the head when they referred to the way money is sloshing
around looking for a haven. Certainly, I am utterly opposed to the currency debasement that is
occurring. There is also too close a relation between the FRB and the banks and At some point,
the FRB will be forced to deal with inflation. When that happens, it will convulse commodity
markets and the spasms will be measured in nano-seconds.
6. Money needs a haven to get parked, with hedge fund managers finding the financial market
treacherous, found a life line with strong commodity prices… Higher prices attract more
investors…virtuous cycle, till the marginal cost of liquidity far exceeds the expected marginal
return…The same thing is being played here… we need to watch more technical factors to
ascertain when that tipping point shall come via……..Open Interest, volume, backwardation,
oscillators…
Of course in our mind, perhaps the really big questions center on whether the Banking System
will survive and whether or not the Dollar will collapse. At present, we believe that a huge
Banking System crisis will be seen in the next 18 to 20 months, and that several large
‘mainstream’ banks may end up failing. We also believe that the risk of a Dollar collapse is
extremely high, and that an Argentina style Devaluation is brewing up like an afternoon
thunderstorm in the tropics. Whether or not a deep recession evolves into a full out Depression
may ultimately hinge on how much damage is inflicted on the Dollar as the falling dollar has
been pushing up commodity prices over time, and in so doing, pushing down real consumer
spending.
A historical analogy is that during the Civil War the US government printed fiat money (US
notes, i.e., Greenbacks) and cut back on coinage, particularly, silver coinage. This coincided with
a huge expansion in the production of silver (the Comstock Lode, Tombstone, etc.). After the
war, the government continued to limit the issue of silver coinage and silver certificates. Mines
continued to increase production of the stuff during that period. Up to the time of Woodrow
Wilson and World War 1 the issue of what to do with silver was a paramount issue in US
politics. The Republicans wanted sound money, i.e., gold; the Democrats wanted to expand use
of silver coinage and certificates, which would have been inflationary. After the Federal Reserve
Board was established in 1913 the whole issue became moot due to that change. I think that also
coincided with an increase in industrial demand for silver and mine closures either because they
played out or became too costly to exploit, hence the increase in price during and after WWI,
which caused a mini boom in mine deliveries of silver, which caused prices to collapse. Then the
depression came after 1929 and the rest, so to speak, is the sad history of currency debasement
(silver certificates were taken out of circulation during the 60s when a silver $ became worth
more than a $; the Treasury refused to redeem silver certificates in 1964 and they became
collectors’ items worth more than silver $).
Will we see a repeat of this in certain Western – East European or South American Countries,
wherein currency debasement and lack of faith internationally in that countries fiat paper
money shall lead to gold or silver < directly or indirectly >once again as de-facto money
Sbhose@microsec.in www.microsec.in Phones 0091-33-30512100 Fax 009133-30512020