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CONTAINMENT GAMES
The Hit
BLC
After
# of men off Winning chances With 1 point open
0 97.0% 97.7%
1 95.7% 97.0%
2 93.5% 95.2%
3 89.8% 92.5%
4 84.6% 88.6%
5 78.1% 83.5%
6 69.3% 76.3%
7 61.0% 67.0%
8 50.8% 57.2%
9 42.1% 52.7%
10 31.8% 37.9%
11 24.3% 27.4%
12 17.4% 20.9%
13 20.9% 23.3%
14 8.5% 08.5%
What you need to know
ea. Pip adjusts about 1.5 percent
When do you have a redouble?
It’s generally a redouble and a take if you have 4
fewer checkers off and he is on the bar.
If you have 5 fewer off, it’s generally not a redouble.
Redoubling Rules of Thumb
If you have 3 fewer off, it’s generally not a take; you have lost
your market!
Ex: If he has 9 checkers off, you can redouble with 5 checkers off.
All assume NMS (Normal Match Score) or money game, a closed
board or the 6 point and no gaps (clearing from the top).
Pip = 42 (-135)
Pip = 177 (+135)
3. Do not slot the back of a 4 prime…too many
numbers hit you or get by you.
1. 21/14 is best. Flood the outfield, prepare for the
worst.
2. Do not get off of the 1 point. You generally do not
go after the second checker until you’ve contained
the first. Most people get off the 24 too soon.
 Do slot the back of a 5 prime. Only 2 numbers hit and
you stand an excellent chance to make a 6 prime
with two covers.
 Again, do not get off of the 24 until you have
contained the rogue checker.
Pip = 42 (-96)
Pip = 138 (+96)
Pip = 40 (-98)
Pip = 138 (+98)
 Slot the back of the 5-prime.
 Don’t come off the 24 point.
Weren’t you
listening?!
 Do not break your prime to hit (small blunder)
 Do not come off the 24 (medium large blunder)
Pip = 40 (-98)
Pip = 138 (+98)
SLOT THE BACK OF THE 5
PRIME!!!!!!! Dammit,
listen!!!!!
Pip = 39 (-136)
Pip = 175 (+136)
 Do not come off the 24
 Flood the outfield (24/21 18/16 best)
 Do not try to stop 6-6
 Again, it’s too soon to get off the 24 point.
 Hit loose but keep the prime.
 Pointing on the blot is a .050 error but second best.
Pip = 35 (-123)
Pip = 158 (+123)
 You can block 6-6 or you can block 6-5. If he
rolls the one that is not blocked, you probably
lose the game. So which one should you block?
It’s pretty close by the way.
Pip = 38 (-53)
Pip = 91 (+53)
 Hitting is a must.
Pip = 40 (-51)
Pip = 91 (+51)
 The 3 down to the 10 gives you the most covers.
Phil’s Magic Formula to Improving
1. You improve with study, not by playing (Abe Lincoln)
2. Deliberate practice is the best method—break the game down
into segments and learn each segment one at a time.
3. You cannot get better without help. You need XG, books,
articles, mentors, teachers. It would take you years to discover
on your own what others can teach you.
4. At the higher levels, you have to diminish your reliance on
“rules of thumb” and “generalities” and truly get your hands
dirty. You have to consider all the factors and calculate the odds
and give each option a numeric value. There is only one
“shortcut” to great playing—see No. 5.
5. Reference positions are the only shortcuts. The more good ones
you have, the better.

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After the hit

  • 2. # of men off Winning chances With 1 point open 0 97.0% 97.7% 1 95.7% 97.0% 2 93.5% 95.2% 3 89.8% 92.5% 4 84.6% 88.6% 5 78.1% 83.5% 6 69.3% 76.3% 7 61.0% 67.0% 8 50.8% 57.2% 9 42.1% 52.7% 10 31.8% 37.9% 11 24.3% 27.4% 12 17.4% 20.9% 13 20.9% 23.3% 14 8.5% 08.5% What you need to know ea. Pip adjusts about 1.5 percent
  • 3. When do you have a redouble?
  • 4. It’s generally a redouble and a take if you have 4 fewer checkers off and he is on the bar. If you have 5 fewer off, it’s generally not a redouble. Redoubling Rules of Thumb If you have 3 fewer off, it’s generally not a take; you have lost your market! Ex: If he has 9 checkers off, you can redouble with 5 checkers off. All assume NMS (Normal Match Score) or money game, a closed board or the 6 point and no gaps (clearing from the top).
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Pip = 42 (-135) Pip = 177 (+135) 3. Do not slot the back of a 4 prime…too many numbers hit you or get by you. 1. 21/14 is best. Flood the outfield, prepare for the worst. 2. Do not get off of the 1 point. You generally do not go after the second checker until you’ve contained the first. Most people get off the 24 too soon.
  • 8.  Do slot the back of a 5 prime. Only 2 numbers hit and you stand an excellent chance to make a 6 prime with two covers.  Again, do not get off of the 24 until you have contained the rogue checker. Pip = 42 (-96) Pip = 138 (+96)
  • 9. Pip = 40 (-98) Pip = 138 (+98)  Slot the back of the 5-prime.  Don’t come off the 24 point. Weren’t you listening?!
  • 10.  Do not break your prime to hit (small blunder)  Do not come off the 24 (medium large blunder) Pip = 40 (-98) Pip = 138 (+98) SLOT THE BACK OF THE 5 PRIME!!!!!!! Dammit, listen!!!!!
  • 11. Pip = 39 (-136) Pip = 175 (+136)  Do not come off the 24  Flood the outfield (24/21 18/16 best)  Do not try to stop 6-6
  • 12.  Again, it’s too soon to get off the 24 point.  Hit loose but keep the prime.  Pointing on the blot is a .050 error but second best. Pip = 35 (-123) Pip = 158 (+123)
  • 13.  You can block 6-6 or you can block 6-5. If he rolls the one that is not blocked, you probably lose the game. So which one should you block? It’s pretty close by the way. Pip = 38 (-53) Pip = 91 (+53)
  • 14.  Hitting is a must. Pip = 40 (-51) Pip = 91 (+51)  The 3 down to the 10 gives you the most covers.
  • 15. Phil’s Magic Formula to Improving 1. You improve with study, not by playing (Abe Lincoln) 2. Deliberate practice is the best method—break the game down into segments and learn each segment one at a time. 3. You cannot get better without help. You need XG, books, articles, mentors, teachers. It would take you years to discover on your own what others can teach you. 4. At the higher levels, you have to diminish your reliance on “rules of thumb” and “generalities” and truly get your hands dirty. You have to consider all the factors and calculate the odds and give each option a numeric value. There is only one “shortcut” to great playing—see No. 5. 5. Reference positions are the only shortcuts. The more good ones you have, the better.