A detailed analysis of the Forces that Impact the Forex market of Afghanistan.

1. Afghanistan:
Remittance Market Analysis.
By Zain Alv

2. Total Area: 652,230 sq km
Population 34,124,811
0-24 years: 52.92%
25-54 30-35%
55 and over 6.51%
Median Age 18.8 years
Urban
Population 27.6%

3. ECONOMY

5. The importance of services in the economy of Afghanistan and other countries is measured as
the value added of services as percent of GDP. The services sector includes wholesale and
retail trade, transport, financial services, education, health care, and real estate.

6. The average value for Afghanistan during that period was 0.5 million passengers with
a minimum of 0.05 million passengers in 1998 and a maximum of 2.28 million passengers in
2011

7. The average value for Afghanistan during that period was -1.43 points with a minumum of -
1.64 points in 2008 and a maximum of -1.18 points in 1998.

9. Remittance
Ecosystem

10. Key Players
Banks
Hawala
Sarafs (FX
dealers)
Micro
finance Inst
Money
Transfer
Org : MTO
WU/ MG
Money
Service
Providers
(MSP)/ EMI

11. The average value for Afghanistan during that period was 1.75 bank branches with a minimum of
0.38 bank branches in 2004 and a maximum of 2.46 bank branches in 2010

14. Remittance Market Analysis

16. • Dollar amount resulted from a 4.4% gain since 2009 when the
Great Recession kicked in, but a -26.3% decline from 2015 to
2016.
Particularly in the provinces, many banks might not have the capacity to
deal with foreign exchange.
There are large, yet informal, foreign exchange markets in major cities and
provinces such as Jalalabad, Kabul, Kandahar, Herat and Mazar-e Sharif,
where U.S. dollars, British pounds, and euros are readily available.

17. The average remittance outward for Afghanistan was a maximum of 293.05
million U.S. dollars in 2016.

18. Country $
Iran $175,000,000
Pakistan $131,000,000
Saudi Arabia $65,000,000
Germany $16,000,000
United States $9,000,000
United Kingdom $7,000,000
Canada $5,000,000
Netherlands $4,000,000
Australia $3,000,000
Sweden $3,000,000
Norway $2,000,000
Austria $1,000,000
Turkey $1,000,000
United Arab
Emirates
$1,000,000
Denmark $1,000,000
Latvia <$1,000,000
Czech Republic <$1,000,000
Bahrain <$1,000,000
Dominican
Republic
<$1,000,000
Ecuador <$1,000,000
Outward Remittances

19. Personal transfers consist of all current transfers in cash or in kind made or received by
resident households to or from nonresident households. Personal transfers thus include all
current transfers between resident and nonresident individuals
Worldwide remittances

22. Vs.

23. Name Province Population Western Union
Locations
Moneygram
Locations
Kabul Kabul 3,589,000 100+ 30+
Kandahar Kandahar 491,500 10 12
Herat Herat 436,300 9 4
Mazar-i-Sharif Balkh 368,100 9 3
Jalalabad Nangarhar 306,500 10 4
Kunduz Kunduz 304,600 3 2
Lashkargah Helmand 250,200 3 0
Taloqan Takhar 219,000 1 0
Pul-e Khomri Baghlan 203,600 4 1
Charikar Parwan 171,200 0 1
Sheberghan Jowzjan 161,700 5 0
Ghazni Ghazni 157,600 1 1
Khost Khost 133,700 3 2
Chaghcharan Ghor 131,800 1 0
Mihtarlam Laghman 126,000 1 0
Farah Farah 108,400 1 0
Puli Alam Logar 102,700 1 0
Aghanistan : Province vs Presence Analysis

24. Western Union Money Gram
Bakhtar Bank Aghan United Bank
Azizi Bank Bank Al Faha
Maiwand Bank Soneri Bank Ltd
Kabul Bank Sindh Bank Ltd
Bank E Milli Bank Islami Pakistan
Sahary Sahzada market MCB Bank Limted
Ghazafar bank Bank Al Habib
Bank Mazar Albaraka Bank Pakistan
Pashtany Bank Afghan International Bank
Bank Alfalah Herat
Partner Network

25. Western Union Money Gram
Larger Agent Network Spread
Better conversion rate then WU
42 USD with DC/CC 31USD with DC/CC
20 USD with Bank Account 15 USD with Bank Account
In Minutes with DC/CC 10 Minutes with DC/CC
4 business Days with Accounts 4 business Days with Accounts
Max 3000 USD Remittance limit Max 3000 USD Remittance Limit
Max 5000 USD Release limit Max 5000 USD Release limit
Service Parameter Analysis

26. FACTORS IMPACTING FOREX REMITTANCE

27. Trade: An Analysis

28. Trade (2016) Value Products Countries
Exports (FOB) US$ 596 million 42 48
Imports (CIF) US$ 6,534 million 69 77

30. 10 exports accounted for 89.2% of the overall value of its global shipments.
Gems and precious metals fastest-growing among the top 10 export categories,.
2nd place :spices and coffee , cumin, kirabia, caraway and saffron up by 311%
3rd place Gums, resins and other vegetable saps posted 133.2%.
Leading decliners among the top 10 Afghan export categories
textile floor coverings (down by -87.3%) and oil seeds (down by -73.3%).

31. 93.6% of Afghan exports by value were delivered to other Asian countries.
European importers bought 5.6% of Afghanistan’s total shipments
Trailed by 0.6% sent to North American customers.

36. Amount of money spent by TOURISTS in the country
$168m (£128m) in 2012 to $91m in 2014 (decline)*.
*Most recent year's statistics available.

37. Afghanistan
Student
Outward
Mobility.

38. Four-fold increase in outbound student numbers
over the past decade would suggest, the
demand for high-quality education continues to
grow within Afghanistan.
2016, UNESCO reports that approximately
17,000 Afghan students studied abroad in
2013, with 9,033 (53 percent) in Iran, 2,330 (14
percent) in India, 1,310 (8 eight percent) in
Turkey, 1,226 (seven percent) in Saudi Arabia,
and 428 (three percent) in the United States.

39. Afghanistan : Outward Student Mobility 27866
Country Student Outward Mobility
Iran, Islamic Rep. 13,797
India 4,404
Turkey 3,672
Saudi Arabia 1,398
Malaysia 568
United States 510
Kazakhstan 500
United Arab Emirates 340
Tajikistan 256
Egypt 248
Germany 226
Japan 199
United Kingdom 184
Russian Federation 168
France 161
Kyrgyzstan 123
Italy 98
Canada 81
Brazil 51
Turkmenistan 51
Time line 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Afghanistan 9,686 10,008 13,468 19,507 24,267 27,872 27,866
Student Outward Mobility Trend

40. The average value for Afghanistan during was maximum of 17.19 billion U.S. dollars in 2012.

41. Business Environment

43. The average value for Afghanistan during that period was 48 points with a minimum of
0 points in 2017 and a maximum of 65 points in 2013.

45. Significant Investments in Afghanistan comes from:

46. An Country that would have one of the most youngest population in the world
with increased focused on education by both the Government and the residents is
expected accelerate the growth of remittances by exploring local and
international markets in both creating more opportunities in business and jobs.
Rapid adoption of digital technologies and online business is expected to create a
positive impact on consumer and business alike.
Governments openness to address their systems ex. IMF , Education, etc are good
signs towards a long road of restructuring of business and finance ecosystem.
The challenges of Informal Transfer ( Hawala) / Banking systems, Corruption and
Terrorism still and will pose as hurdles in the times to come.

47. …Zain Alvi.