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In this issue, IceCap shows how the Toronto housing bubble has been created and what will make it break - the answer may surprise you.
In addition, we detail how the European Central Bank has applied all sorts of financial make-up to convince the world that Italy, Spain, Portugal and others are in solid, financial shape.
Of course, the problem with make-up is that eventually it wears off, and then what is left exposed is not pretty.
Mohamed El-Erian, Chair of President, Obama’s Global Development Council, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, Former CEO & Co-Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO
Eloy Lindeijer, CIO, PGGM
An enormous effort has gone into banking and financial regulatory reform following the recent financial crisis. This presentation is an attempt to:
Describe some key open questions about the relation among stability, growth, and regulatory reform.
Raise some concerns about overemphasis on some instruments and under emphasize on others in the ongoing reform process.
What are the risks of stablecoins? The folks at Treasury are concerned about things like fraud, mismanagement and bank runs if these growing assets are not regulated.
https://youtu.be/Kadjcq4EQ_A
Monthly Viewpoint from our CIO, Marco Pabst - August 2017: "Aging Bulls"Felipe Massu
• There is a new bull market in doomsayers predicting a market crash
• Low volatility is partly structural and we have witnessed similarly extended periods without corrections before
• Waiting for corrections is a futile and opportunistically expensive exercise
• We would not throw in the towel on Trump as midterm elections are looming and the GOP needs some success stories
• Equities are entering a slower period of year and hedging some exposure is advised
As the global financial crisis entered its most dramatic phase, in the second half of 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), many governments and several distinguished scholars advocated expansionary fiscal olicy as the second most effective tool (after monetary stimulus) to fight deep recession and deflation. Now, more than a year later, the previous excitement surrounding the supposed power of fiscal stimulus largely disappeared and instead has been replaced by ising concerns over the sustainability of public finances in many countries. Unfortunately, the previous enthusiasts of the active counter‐cyclical fiscal policy have not always realized the causality between the two.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2009
In this issue, IceCap shows how the Toronto housing bubble has been created and what will make it break - the answer may surprise you.
In addition, we detail how the European Central Bank has applied all sorts of financial make-up to convince the world that Italy, Spain, Portugal and others are in solid, financial shape.
Of course, the problem with make-up is that eventually it wears off, and then what is left exposed is not pretty.
Mohamed El-Erian, Chair of President, Obama’s Global Development Council, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, Former CEO & Co-Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO
Eloy Lindeijer, CIO, PGGM
An enormous effort has gone into banking and financial regulatory reform following the recent financial crisis. This presentation is an attempt to:
Describe some key open questions about the relation among stability, growth, and regulatory reform.
Raise some concerns about overemphasis on some instruments and under emphasize on others in the ongoing reform process.
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Achieving Investment Portfolio Resilience & Agility in Today’s Uncertain Landscape - Mohamed A. El-Erian News Release
1. Interview with: Mohamed A. El-
Erian, Chief Economic Adviser,
Allianz, Former CEO & Co-CIO of
PIMCO
“Investors must recognise that their
mindset, beliefs and historical experi-
ences will be challenged by unusual
fluidity in the political, economic,
financial and institutional areas,” says
Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic
Adviser, Allianz, Former CEO & Co-CIO
of PIMCO. “Investors should not just
target one likely outcome, but recognise
there is “unusual uncertainty” and build
portfolio resilience and agility,” he
continues.
El-Erian is a keynote speaker at the
marcus evans European Pensions &
Investments Summit 2017, taking
place in Montreux, Switzerland, 15 – 17
May.
What are some of the recent
changes to the global economic
system that investors and pension
funds should be aware of?
The biggest changes come from the
political side and the implications for
economics, finance, institutions and the
markets. It is the unusual uncertainty
associated with political developments,
particularly in the US and Europe. In the
US, it is the election of Donald Trump
and the wider set of two-sided risks he
brings to investors. On the one side, he
may unlock the gridlock in policies and
help promote economic growth, push
asset prices higher and allow the Fed to
normalise in an orderly fashion. On the
other side, more worrying is the
possibility of trade wars as economic
nationalism and populism picks up fuel.
In Europe economic nationalism is also
fuelling anti-establishment movements
and raising questions not just about
economic growth and markets, but also
on how institutions and regional
economic arrangements are set up.
The bottom line is, investors have to
consider political risk in a manner that
they did not have to do before, and the
extent to which that can impact the
economy, institutions, markets and,
therefore, the trifecta that is most
important to their portfolios: expected
return, asset volatility and asset
correlation.
How should they change the way
they construct their portfolio?
A lot depends on which Trump
administration we get. There are two
possibilities. One is a supportive Trump
administration that passes tax reform,
deregulates in a prudent fashion, and
embarks on infrastructure spending,
which would raise not just actual growth
but also the future growth potential of
the US. That would be beneficial for
long-term investors as fundamentals
ultimately drive portfolio returns. But
there is also the possibility of protec-
tionism consistent with campaign talk to
dismantle NAFTA, impose high tariffs on
China and Mexico, end bilateral trade
agreements with countries such as
Korea, which would result in stagflation.
This would promote the risk of a trade
war, undermine global growth and raise
consumer prices around the world. That
would not be good for investors, who
would lose both from low growth and
their fixed income exposure would
suffer from inflation.
It is too early to tell which side will
prevail. If I were forced to make a call
today, I would say we are more likely to
get the first Trump administration than
the second, but the extent of uncer-
tainty is quite high.
How can they build portfolio
resilience and agility?
Investors must get used to running
multiple scenario analyses, to explicitly
realize that many outcomes are possible
and to have detailed plans for what to
do as more information becomes
available. This is a mindset shift from
targeting just one asset allocation to
recognising there are many alternatives,
and they have to think about them
during the calm days.
The second is to be much more
selective in allocating to sectors and
giving up on liquidity. Liquidity has
become even more important as it gives
investors the ability to respond quickly.
The third element is to recognise that
traditional endogenous risk mitigation
based on traditional correlations is going
to be challenged in a world of political
risk.
Any final advice on risk mitigation?
Pension funds, especially if they are
underfunded, need to ask themselves
what mistakes they can afford to make
and what mistakes they cannot afford.
That is not an easy discussion to have.
But it is a very important one given the
unusual degree of uncertainty.
Investors
must get
used to
running
multiple
scenario
analyses
Achieving Investment Portfolio Resilience
& Agility in Today’s Uncertain Landscape
2. The Investment Network –
marcus evans Summits group
delivers peer-to-peer information
on strategic matters, professional
t r e n d s a n d b r e a k t h r o u g h
innovations.
Please note that the Summit is a
closed business event and the
number of participants strictly
limited.
About the European Pensions & Investments Summit 2017
The 17th annual European Pensions & Investments Summit is the ultimate meeting
point, bringing elite buyers and sellers together. The Summit offers regional pension
investors and international fund managers and consultants an intimate environment
for focused discussion of the key new drivers shaping institutional asset allocations.
Taking place at the Fairmont Le Montreux Palace, Montreux, Switzerland, 15 - 17
May, the Summit includes presentations on global economic trends, mastering
private equity, exploring real estate opportunities and implementing socially
responsible policies.
www.epi-summit.com
Contact
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To view the web version of this interview, please click here:
http://events.marcusevans-events.com/epi2017-mohamed-el-erian