The document discusses the economic dynamics between Indonesia and China, highlighting the growth of the Chinese economy and its implications for ASEAN nations. It emphasizes the need for improved ICT education and readiness of human resources in Indonesia to better engage in the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA). The presentation outlines various economic agreements between ASEAN member states and China, detailing the competitive trade structure and the impacts of foreign investments.

1. CAFTA Trickle Down Effect:
ICT Education Roles on
Human Resources Readiness
for Indonesia
Djadja Achmad Sardjana, S.T., M.M
Lecture on Informatics Engineering
Widyatama University
djadja.sardjana@widyatama.ac.id
http://www.slideshare.net/djadja Seminar on CAFTA
25 January 2010 Telkomsel 1

2. Presentation Outline
• World Economic Growth: The cheese already moved
to east (mostly China)
• Economic characteristics and its development of
ASEAN members and China
• Trade and Investment between Indonesia – China, and
their impacts on Indonesian economy.
• ASEAN China Free Trade Area (ACFTA): The Basic
Agreement and Current Development
• ICT Education Roles on Human Resources Readiness
for Indonesia
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 2

3. World Economic Growth :
The cheese already moved
to the east (mostly China)
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 3

4. World GDP
Real 2000 GDP ($billions)
14000
From the fourth quarter of 2008 to the final quarter of
12000
2009, the economists expect the economy to contract
0.2%. However, that's looking across the valley of a long
10000 and deep recession concentrated in the fourth quarter
of 2008 and the first and second quarters of 2009.
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
North America Latin America Europe Former Soviet Union
Asia and Oceania Middle East Africa
25 January 2010
Prepared and copyright by Gene Shackman Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 4
Data from USDA
The Global Social Change Research Project The International Macroeconomic Data Set
http://gsociology.icaap.org http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/

5. Countries with highest growth
Real 2000 GDP ($billions)
2500
2000
The World Bank upped its estimate
for Chinese economic growth to
1500 7.2% as against its March forecast
of only 6.5% growth for year 2009
1000
500
0
69
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
China Singapore Taiwan South Korea Malaysia
Hong Kong Thailand World Average
25 January 2010
Prepared and copyright by Gene Shackman Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 5
Data from USDA
The Global Social Change Research Project The International Macroeconomic Data Set
http://gsociology.icaap.org http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/

6. Countries with highest growth
Excluding China. Real 2000 GDP ($billions)
800
Indonesia is building more roads, bridges and power plants
700 to sustain economic growth, which Bank Indonesia forecasts
at as much as 5.5 percent this year (2010). President Susilo
600 Bambang Yudhoyono pledged to double infrastructure
spending to as much as $140 billion in his second five-year
500 term until 2014. The economy may expand 6.6 percent on
average over the next five years, Yudhoyono said on Jan. 6.
400
300
200
100
0
Singapore Taiwan South Korea Malaysia Hong Kong Indonesia World Average
25 January 2010
Prepared and copyright by Gene Shackman Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 6
Data from USDA
The Global Social Change Research Project The International Macroeconomic Data Set
http://gsociology.icaap.org http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Macroeconomics/

7. CHINA IS A SUPER
POWER already
• China GDP will grow by seven percent or more next
year.
• China will mandate buy China for domestic usage
• China will buy IMF bonds
• China owns about 800 billion of US Treasury
• China has two trillion dollars of foreign reserve. This
will grow to three trillion in next five years.
• China wants to have significant say at IMF
• China does not want to called as part of BRIC, It
should be renamed as BRIM (Brazil, Russia, India, and
Mexico)
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 7

8. Economic characteristics
and its development
of ASEAN members and China
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 8

9. Economic Growth:
ASEAN Behind China
20
15
10 China
India
Indonesia
5
Percent
ASEAN-5
0
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
-5
-10
-15
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 9 Source: IMF

10. GDP Comparison:
ASEAN’s GDP only 34% of the Chinese (2008)
China 4,401.6
India 1,209.7
Indonesia 511.8
Thailand 273.2
Malaysia 222.2
Singapore 181.9
Philippines 168.6
Viet Nam 89.8
Myanmar 27.2
Brunei Darussalam 14.6
Cambodia 11.2
Lao PDR 5.3
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Billions of USD
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 10
Source: 2008 figure, IMF

11. GDP Structure:
ASEAN members, China and India
120
100 8.0 1.1
2.8
19.1 41.1
23.1 39.7 15.2
28.8 27.8
80
39.8 9.7
44.4 6.2
30.9 19.1 8.4
60 11.6 11.9
Percent
12.5
12.9 10.7
13.5
40
67.3 71.1
20.8 60.9
54.7 54.8
41.0 45.2
20 36.1
20.1
0 -1.8
-5.3
-16.5
-20
Brunai China Singapore Malaysia India Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Philipina
Private consumption Government consumption Gross domestic capital formation Net Export
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 11 Source: ADB

12. Trade and Investment between
Indonesia – China, and their
impacts on Indonesian economy
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 12

13. High Growth of FDI in China:
Impact of Economic Reform
120
China
100
80
Billion USD
60 ASEAN
40
20 Indonesia
- India
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
(20)
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 13 Source: UNCTAD

14. FDI Inflow (1998-2008):
China is far Above ASEAN
China 677.2
ASEAN 396.4
Singapore 190.0
Thailand 75.3
Malaysia 47.8
India 33.5
Vietnam 29.2
Indonesia 20.3
Philippines 17.4
Brunei Darussalam 8.4
Cambodia 3.7
Myanmar 3.3
Lao People's Dem. Rep. 1.0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Billion USD
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 14 Source: UNCTAD

15. Exports and Import:
Huge Surplus of China’s International Trade
China 1428.5
ASEAN 879.3
India 187.4
Singapore 241.4
Malaysia 194.5
Exports
Thailand 175.0
Imports
Indonesia 137.0
Viet Nam 61.8
Philippines 49.0
Brunei Darussalam 8.8
Myanmar 6.6
Cambodia 4.4
Lao PDR 0.8
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Billions of USD
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 15
Source: Asean Economic Community Chartbook, 2008

16. Top 5 ASEAN Exports to China:
Dominated by Electonics Parts and Primary Commodities
Others, 58%
Palm oil & its
fractions, not
chemically modified,
Electronic integrated 5%
circuits and Automatic data
microassemblies, 18% processing machines; Petrolium oils, not
optical reader, etc, 7% crude, 6%
Natural rubber,
balata, gutta-percha
etc, 6%
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 16
Source: Asean Economic Community Chartbook, 2008

17. ASEAN Commodities Export to China:
Main Source for China’s Demand , 2008
Marble,travertine, ecaussines etc 76.6
Niobium, tantalum, vanadium ores & concentrates 76.7
Zinc ores & concentrates 76.9
Ores & concentrates, nes 77.3
compounded rubber, unvulcanised, in primary forms 82.9
Iron oxides & hydroxides 84.1
Zirconium & articles thereof, including waste & scrap 86
Chromium ores & concentrates 89.9
Alumunium ores & concentrates 91.8
Iron ores & concentrates; including roasted iron pyrites 94.8
Slag. Dross other than granulated slag 97
Uranium or thorium ores & concentrates 99.9
75 80 85 90 95 100
Percent
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 17
Source: ASEAN Economic Commonity Chartbook 2009

18. 5 Top ASEAN’s Import
ASEAN from China, 2008
Others, 76%
Electric app for line
telephony,
Hot rolled, flat- including current
rolled products of Automatic data line system, 6%
iron or nonalloy processing Parts & acces od
steel, 2% machines; optical computers & office
Electronic reader, etc, 5% machines, 6%
integrated circuits
and
microassamblies,
5%
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar ASEAN Economic Commodity Chartbook, 2009
Source: on CAFTA 18

19. ASEAN trade with China:
Continuous increase of deficit
120
100
Import
80
60
Billion USD
Export
40
20
0
-0.9 -1.7 -4.3 -2.0 -2.7 -4.0 -2.9 -3.7 -1.5
-6.4 -8.9 -9.9
-20 -15.2
Balance of trade -21.4
-40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 19
Source: ASEAN Statistical Yearbook, 2008

20. ASEAN China Free Trade Area
(ACFTA):
The Basic Agreement
and Current Development
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 20

21. List of ASEAN Free Trade Agreements
AGREEMENT SIGNING DATE EFFECTIVE
ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand 27 February 2009 Preparations are currently being undertaken for the ratification and the
Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) subsequent implementation of the Agreement by the parties
ASEAN-China Free Trade Area November 2002 The realization of ACFTA in 2010 for Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia,
(ACFTA) Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and China, and 2015 for
Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Viet Nam.
ASEAN-India Trade in Goods 13 August 2009 The ASEAN-India FTA will see tariff liberalisation of over 90% of products
(TIG) Agreement traded between the two dynamic regions. Tariffs on over 4,000 product
lines will be eliminated by 2016, at the earliest. The ASEAN-India TIG
Agreement will enter into force on 1 January 2010 once India and at least
one ASEAN Member State notify completion of their internal ratification
process.
ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive April 2008 The Agreement entered into force on 1 December 2008. As of July 2009,
Economic Partnership (AJCEP) Brunei Darussalam, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, Viet
Nam and Japan have ratified the Agreement.
ASEAN-ROK Framework 13 Dec. 2005 The Framework Agreement provides for an ASEAN-ROK Free Trade Area by
Agreement on Comprehensive the year 2008 (with flexibility to 2010) for ROK, 2010 (with flexibility to
Economic Cooperation 2012) for Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore
and Thailand, 2016 for Viet Nam and 2018 for Cambodia, Lao PDR, and
Myanmar.
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 21

22. Countries Economic Characteristics:
ASEAN Needs to Define A Better Strategy
• China is an economic giants to ASEAN
• GDP and Foreign Reserve of China are far above those
of ASEAN members
• Trade structure between China and ASEAN members
show that Chinese products are highly competitive
• Almost all ASEAN members face trade deficit against
China
• Chinese attractiveness for foreign investment is above
that of ASEAN members in average.
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 22

23. ACFTA:
Gates to Liberalization
• ACFTA was agreed in November 2002 and effectively due
date on January 01, 2010. Both sides have targeted the
realization of ACFTA in 2010 for Brunei Darussalam,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and
China, and 2015 for Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Viet
Nam.
• Under the ACFTA, tariffs on certain products as known as
the Early Harvest Program (EHP), were reduced before the
onset of the FTA (came into effect on 1 January 2004).
• Others agreements by sectors have also been agreed under
ACFTA.
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 23

24. Agreements Under ACFTA #1
• The ASEAN-China MOU on Strengthening Sanitary and
Phytosanitary (SPS) Cooperation was signed in November 2007.
• ASEAN-China MOU on Agricultural Cooperation in November 2002
in Phnom Penh; a more direct cooperation in the agricultural sector
between the lead national agencies in ASEAN and China. An
extended ASEAN-China MOU on Agricultural Cooperation for
2007-2011 was signed in January 2007 in Cebu.
• ASEAN and China strategic partnership in Information and
Communications Technology (ICT) to promote international
cooperation in terms of investment in human resources development
on ICT and to explore the possibility of establishing Greater Mekong
Sub-region (GMS) information highway.
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 24

25. Agreements Under ACFTA #2
• ASEAN and China cooperation: the MOU on Transport
Cooperation in November 2004 in Vientiane, promoting: i)
transport infrastructure construction; ii) transport facilitation; iii)
maritime safety and security; iv) air transport; v) human resources
development; and vi) information exchange.
• The 7th ASEAN-China Maritime Transport Agreement (ACMTA),
November 2008 agreed in principle with the Strategic Plan for
ASEAN-China Transport Cooperation, identifying transport
infrastructure projects aimed at enhancing international and cross-
border transportation and facilitation.
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 25

26. Agreements Under ACFTA #2
• ASEAN and China cooperation: the MOU on Transport
Cooperation in November 2004 in Vientiane, promoting: i)
transport infrastructure construction; ii) transport facilitation; iii)
maritime safety and security; iv) air transport; v) human resources
development; and vi) information exchange.
• The 7th ASEAN-China Maritime Transport Agreement (ACMTA),
November 2008 agreed in principle with the Strategic Plan for
ASEAN-China Transport Cooperation, identifying transport
infrastructure projects aimed at enhancing international and cross-
border transportation and facilitation.
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 26

27. ICT Education Roles
on Human Resources Readiness
for Indonesia
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 27

28. Learn from Singapore
• Aim: Our basic blueprint, Infocomm21, lays out plans
to develop Singapore into a dynamic and vibrant
infocomm capital with a thriving and prosperous
Internet economy by 2010.
• Vision: To develop Singapore into a dynamic and
vibrant global infocomm capital with a thriving and
prosperous e-economy and an infocomm-savvy e-
society.
DR TONY TAN KENG YAM, SINGAPORE ACTING PRIME MINISTER
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 28

29. Knowledge-driven
• The knowledge-driven economy continues to be
characterized by a rapidly changing and pervasive
information infrastructure.
• The Internet and its accompanying applications # e-
Business platforms, interactive experiences with new
forms of content, sophisticated consumer
devices, leading-edge information technology # are
all elements of the digital economy.
Heavily supported by prominent
ICT Education Institution
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 29

30. Ecosystem of the Infocomms and Media
• Communications
• e-Business
• Information Technology (IT)
• Media & Digital Entertainment
(MDE)
Education Institution as part of
“Innovator & Early-Adopter”
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 30

31. e-Powering the Public Sector Strategies
• Encourage the delivery of online public services
• Innovate with technology to build new capabilities
• Develop thought leadership on e-government
• Promote the use of e-government services
• Leverage the private sector
Widyatama can propose to Telkomsel as
“Change Agent” for Educate their external
stakeholder (customer
, partner, community, supplier etc.)
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 31

32. e-Powering the People Sector Strategies
• Improve the accessibility of infocomm
technology
• Bridge the digital divide
• Encourage the adoption of an e-lifestyle
Widyatama can propose to Telkomsel as
“Change Agent” for Universal Sevice
Obligation (USO) stakeholder (customer
, partner, community, supplier etc.)
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 32

33. Trend for ICT for the next 5 years
• Network Security
• Mobile Wireless & Broadband Access
• Service Delivery Platform (SDP) for
Convergence
Widyatama can propose to Telkomsel to
Educate & Train their internal stakeholder
(employee, manager, shareholder etc.)
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 33

34. Thank You
25 January 2010 Telkomsel Seminar on CAFTA 34