Data-Driven Supply Planning and Decision-making Leads to Cost-Savings and Greater Access to Contraceptives at Service Delivery Points in Bangladesh. Presentation- International UHC conference, 2015.

1. THEME: DATA AND INDICATOR
AUTHOR: M G Kibria1
SIAPS / Management Sciences for Health (MSH), Bangladesh
PRESENTER: Mohammad Golam Kibria, Senior Technical Advisor,
SIAPS/ Management Sciences for Health (MSH), Bangladesh
MODE OF PRESENTATION: PowerPoint
Title: Data-Driven Supply Planning and Decision-making Leads to Cost-Savings and Greater Access to
Contraceptives at Service Delivery Points
Background: In Bangladesh, accurate forecasting of essential health commodities, including
contraceptives, remains a challenge. Though recording and reporting on stock-levels is recognized as a
critical component of the supply chain management cycle, the linkages between facility-level
information and national-level program policies and plans have traditionally been weak. When accurate
data are available, evidence-based decisions on commodity financing and procurement can be made.
Purpose: Studies indicate that the absence of a national coordination mechanism and limited technical
capacity to forecast for contraceptives have compelled the Directorate General of Family Planning
(DGFP) to rely on past distribution data; producing stock imbalances, overstocking of contraceptives and
stock-outs with a preponderance of emergency orders. It ultimately wastes money and compromises
the integrity of FP program.
Methodology: In 2012, the USAID-funded Systems for Improved Access to Pharmaceuticals and Services
(SIAPS) Program, implemented by MSH, worked with DGFP to create “Forecasting Working Group”,
tasked with forecasting needs and ensuring that resources are allocated.
With SIAPS support, DGFP made a five-year (2012-2016) forecast and a two-year supply plan using
available data, generating programmatic scenarios for future need.
Findings: As a result, DGFP decided not to make anticipated procurements of 65,000 implants in FY
2012-13 and 410,000 implants for FY 2014-15, respectively leading to $1.38 million and $4.1 million in
savings.
Interpretation: Availability of contraceptives at service delivery points (SDPs) also improved. A pre-post
analysis showed significant reduction in stock-out rates for contraceptives at SDP level from 1.63% in
February 2014 to 0.28% in January 2015 (R Squared=59%).
Originality: Analysis and sharing of available information across systems and stakeholders is crucial for
improved decision-making and ensures that people have contraceptives available that are affordable,
safe, effective, and of assured quality.
1
Corresponding author: mkibria@msh.org