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A Network-Based Model for Predicting
Hashtag Breakouts in Twitter
Agenda
 Background
 Methodology
 Our visualization tool
 Experiment & Results
Introduction
 Tweets:
 Textual contents
 User interaction: retweeting,
mentioning, replying, etc.
 Hashtags:
 tagging mechanism created
by users
 Help in categorizing tweets
 Become very popular in
trending topics
Some Definitions
 Tweet Hashtag Volume: Number of tweets “containing a given
hashtag” per day.
 Spike: sharp increase in the volume
Research Question
 Some hashtags become viral.
 Can we predict whether a hashtag will go viral at nascent
stages?
 Network base?
 Textual Content base?
Viral Diffusion
Network Based Analysis
• Arruda et al. examined the role of centrality measures in disease
spread on a SIR model and spreading rumors on a social network.
• In SIR model for rumors, infected individuals recover by some
probability while a spreader becomes a carrier thru contacts in
social networks.
Content Based Analysis
• Hypothesized that a specific groups of words are more likely to be
contained in viral tweets.
• Li et al. analyzed tweets in terms of emotional divergence aspects
(or sentiment analysis) and noted that highly interactive tweets
tend to contain more negative emotions than other tweets.
Running average and standard deviation
 20 days sliding window
Running Average and Standard Deviation
 20 days sliding window
Hashtag Volume
Utilizing Three Sigma Rule
 68-95-99.7 Rule
 Empirical rule
Hashtags Distribution
Accumulative Period
 Break out or Die
out?
 Build a
predictive
learning model
based on …
Accumulative Period
 Break out or Die
out?
 Build a
predictive
learning model
based on …
Break out vs Die out
Break out Non break out (Die out)
Our Approach
 Can we predict #Hashtag breakouts in Twitter at their early stages using local
and global network interaction measures ?
 Local measures: interaction network within the 20 days accumulation window.
 Global measures: interaction network from earlier until the end of the current window.
1. Define a 3-sigma/empirical rule based breakout measure
2. Model evolutionary episodes of hashtag volumes, as:
• Accumulation, Breakout, Die-Out
3. Extract local and global network features
4. Train and test a classifier to:
• Predict if Accumulation leads to Breakout or Die-Out
IDENTIFY evolutionary episodes in #Hashtag
volume time-series
BreakoutAccumulation Die-out Accumulation Die-out
Trending Hashtag Forcaster
Local and global network measures are
computed as features
 Network measures:
 Eigen Vector Centrality
 Page Rank
 Closeness Centrality
 Betweeness Centrality
 Degree Centrality
 Indegree Centrality
 Outdegree Centrality
 Link Rate
 Distinct Link Rate
 Number of Uninfected neighbors of early adopters
 Neighborhood average degree
PCA Ranking of Features
 Exploratory method: reducing the original measure
variables by orthogonal transformation.
 PCA would return sorted number of (linearly uncorrelated)
components along with its variance.
 Highest number of variance among instances.
PCA Ranking of Features
Prediction Accuracies
 Break out
• Non Break out (die out)
Conclusion and Future Work
• A content independent network
based classifier for predicting
hashtag breakouts
• Next, we propose to study the
utility of content based features
such as keywords, named-entities,
topics and sentiments.
Thank you for listening!
Any question?

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A network based model for predicting a hashtag break out in twitter

  • 1. A Network-Based Model for Predicting Hashtag Breakouts in Twitter
  • 2. Agenda  Background  Methodology  Our visualization tool  Experiment & Results
  • 3. Introduction  Tweets:  Textual contents  User interaction: retweeting, mentioning, replying, etc.  Hashtags:  tagging mechanism created by users  Help in categorizing tweets  Become very popular in trending topics
  • 4. Some Definitions  Tweet Hashtag Volume: Number of tweets “containing a given hashtag” per day.  Spike: sharp increase in the volume
  • 5. Research Question  Some hashtags become viral.  Can we predict whether a hashtag will go viral at nascent stages?  Network base?  Textual Content base?
  • 6. Viral Diffusion Network Based Analysis • Arruda et al. examined the role of centrality measures in disease spread on a SIR model and spreading rumors on a social network. • In SIR model for rumors, infected individuals recover by some probability while a spreader becomes a carrier thru contacts in social networks. Content Based Analysis • Hypothesized that a specific groups of words are more likely to be contained in viral tweets. • Li et al. analyzed tweets in terms of emotional divergence aspects (or sentiment analysis) and noted that highly interactive tweets tend to contain more negative emotions than other tweets.
  • 7. Running average and standard deviation  20 days sliding window
  • 8. Running Average and Standard Deviation  20 days sliding window
  • 10. Utilizing Three Sigma Rule  68-95-99.7 Rule  Empirical rule
  • 12. Accumulative Period  Break out or Die out?  Build a predictive learning model based on …
  • 13. Accumulative Period  Break out or Die out?  Build a predictive learning model based on …
  • 14. Break out vs Die out Break out Non break out (Die out)
  • 15. Our Approach  Can we predict #Hashtag breakouts in Twitter at their early stages using local and global network interaction measures ?  Local measures: interaction network within the 20 days accumulation window.  Global measures: interaction network from earlier until the end of the current window. 1. Define a 3-sigma/empirical rule based breakout measure 2. Model evolutionary episodes of hashtag volumes, as: • Accumulation, Breakout, Die-Out 3. Extract local and global network features 4. Train and test a classifier to: • Predict if Accumulation leads to Breakout or Die-Out
  • 16. IDENTIFY evolutionary episodes in #Hashtag volume time-series BreakoutAccumulation Die-out Accumulation Die-out
  • 18. Local and global network measures are computed as features  Network measures:  Eigen Vector Centrality  Page Rank  Closeness Centrality  Betweeness Centrality  Degree Centrality  Indegree Centrality  Outdegree Centrality  Link Rate  Distinct Link Rate  Number of Uninfected neighbors of early adopters  Neighborhood average degree
  • 19. PCA Ranking of Features  Exploratory method: reducing the original measure variables by orthogonal transformation.  PCA would return sorted number of (linearly uncorrelated) components along with its variance.  Highest number of variance among instances.
  • 20. PCA Ranking of Features
  • 21. Prediction Accuracies  Break out • Non Break out (die out)
  • 22. Conclusion and Future Work • A content independent network based classifier for predicting hashtag breakouts • Next, we propose to study the utility of content based features such as keywords, named-entities, topics and sentiments.
  • 23. Thank you for listening! Any question?