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Sir Gordon Conway
Professor of International Development,
Agriculture for Impact,
Imperial College	
  
A	
  Green	
  
Revolu,on	
  for	
  
Mozambique?	
  
Maputo,	
  Mozambique	
  
March	
  6th,	
  2015	
  
The Global Crises
Financial
Food security
Water
Civil Strife
Climate Change
Energy Supply
Ecosystem
Functions
‘A	
  Perfect	
  Storm’	
  
	
   	
  	
  	
   	
  The	
  Global	
  Crises	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
We	
  have	
  to	
  Intensify	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Survival line
Months
Potentialharvest(tons/ha)
1
2
3
2 31 4
Weeds
Pests
Drought
An	
  Insecure	
  Farm	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Survival	
  line	
  
Months	
  
Poten,al	
  harvest	
  (tons/ha)	
  
1	
  
2	
  
3	
  
2	
   3	
  1	
   4	
  
Weeds	
  
Pests	
  &	
  diseases	
  
Drought	
  
Soil	
  
Fer)lity	
  
>2	
  t/ha	
  
Resilient	
  Crops	
  
A	
  Secure	
  Farm	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
  	
   	
  	
  	
   	
  The	
  Key	
  Ingredients	
  	
  of	
  a	
  	
  
	
   	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  Mozambique	
  Green	
  Revolu,on	
  
•  And	
  from	
  Value	
  Chains	
  to	
  Local,	
  Na,onal,	
  Regional	
  and	
  
Interna,onal	
  Markets	
  
•  Linked	
  via	
  Warehouses	
  to	
  Value	
  Chains	
  and	
  Food	
  Processors	
  
•  BEGIN	
  WITH	
  
•  Farmers	
  with	
  rights	
  to	
  land	
  and	
  belonging	
  to	
  Farmer	
  
Associa,ons	
  
•  With	
  easy	
  access	
  to	
  seeds,	
  fer,lisers,	
  credit	
  through	
  
Agrodealers	
  
•  Provided	
  by	
  local	
  seed	
  and	
  fer,lizer	
  blending	
  companies	
  
and	
  local	
  banks	
  
•  PLUS	
  
•  Investments	
  both	
  technological	
  and	
  financial	
  
•  Poli,cal	
  Leadership	
  and	
  appropriate	
  Enabling	
  Environments	
  
Sustainably	
  Intensifying	
  the	
  links	
  
	
  between	
  farmers	
  	
  
Farmer Associations
Cooperatives
Cereal Banks
Contract Farms
Outgrowers
	
   	
  	
   	
  Farmer	
  Associa,ons	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Input MarketsInput	
  Markets	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
 	
   	
   	
  	
  Seed	
  companies	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
  	
  	
  	
   	
  Warehouse	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  Uganda	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
  	
  	
  	
   	
  Warehouse	
  	
  
	
   	
  	
  	
   	
  Mozambique	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Maize	
  Cob	
  Sheller	
  
	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
   	
  Youthful	
  entrepreneurs	
  
	
   	
  	
   	
   	
   	
  	
  Uganda	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
URBAN	
  
LIVELIHOODS	
  
RURAL	
  
DEVELOPMENT	
  
RESEARCH	
  &	
  DEVELOPMENT	
  
NATIONAL	
  
MARKETS	
  
ASSUMED	
  RISK	
   NUTRITION	
  
WASTE	
  
ADDED	
  VALUE	
  
RURAL	
  
LIVELIHOODS	
  
REGIONAL	
  
MARKETS	
  
INTERNATIONAL	
  
MARKETS	
  
FOOD	
  
PRODUCTION	
  
VALUE	
  CHAINS	
   LAND	
  TENURE	
  
BUILD	
  
RESILIENCE	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
  	
  	
   	
   	
   	
  Ethiopian	
  	
  
	
   	
  	
   	
   	
  Commodity	
  Exchange	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
¡ There is not much more new arable
land available and water is scarce
¡ We have to intensify
¡ More with Less
¡ Greater productivity but minimised
environmental footprint
	
   	
  	
   	
   	
   	
  We	
  have	
  to	
  Intensify	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
  	
  	
   	
   	
  But	
  it	
  has	
  to	
  be	
  sustainable	
  
•  With efficient and prudent use of inputs
•  Pesticides, herbicides, fertilisers
•  Minimising emissions of Greenhouse Gases
•  Methane, nitrous oxide, CO2
•  While increasing natural capital and
environmental services
•  Soil moisture, natural enemies of pests
•  Strengthening Resilience
•  Reducing environmental impact
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
  	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
   	
  We	
  need	
  
	
   	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
   	
  Precise	
  Technologies	
  
Microdosing	
  in	
  Niger	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Microdosing	
  Water	
  
Drip	
  Irriga,on	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
  	
  	
   	
   	
   	
  Targeted	
  Fer,lisers	
  
	
   	
  	
   	
   	
  Ethiopia	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
  	
  	
   	
   	
   	
  Targeted	
  Fer,lisers	
  
	
   	
  	
  	
   	
  Mozambique	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Blended	
  N,	
  P,	
  K	
  
Zn,	
  Mo,	
  Bo,	
  S	
  
Plus	
  Lime	
  
	
  	
  
	
  
4-­‐6	
  tons	
  /	
  ha	
  
Mul,ple	
  Approaches	
  
•  Ecology	
  
•  Gene,cs	
  
•  Socio-­‐economics	
  
•  plus	
  Integrated	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
•  Use ecological principles to
design agricultural practices
•  e.g.
– Agroforestry
– Integrated Pest
Management
– Organic farming In
	
   	
   	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  Sustainable	
  Ecological	
  	
  
	
  	
   	
   	
   	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  Intensifica,on	
  
	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Intercropping	
  	
  
maize	
  and	
  cowpea	
  
  	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  Rotate	
  with	
  Legumes	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Sustainable Genetic
Intensification
•  Plants more nutritious
–  carbohydrate and protein
–  micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc)
•  Plants more resilient to
–  pests and diseases
–  climate change
•  Plants more efficient at
–  converting sunlight to food
–  taking up nitrogen from
the atmosphere
–  using water
Modern	
  Plant	
  Breeding	
  
	
   	
  	
   	
   	
   	
  	
  	
   	
  Sustainable	
  Gene,c	
   	
  
	
   	
   	
   	
  	
   	
  Intensifica,on	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
 	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  Orange	
  Fleshed	
  	
  
	
  	
   	
   	
   	
  	
   	
   	
  Sweet	
  Potatoes	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Sustainably	
  Intensifying	
  the	
  links	
  	
  between	
  farmers	
  and	
  markets	
  
Kenya	
  
Sussex	
  
	
   	
  	
   	
   	
  Sustainable	
  Socio-­‐economic	
  	
  
	
   	
  Intensifica,on	
  
Tanzania	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
•  Integrated	
  Pest	
  Management	
  (IPM)	
  
•  Integrated	
  Soil	
  Management	
  (ISM)	
  
	
   	
  	
  	
   	
  Integrated	
  Approaches 	
   	
  	
  
	
   	
   	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Africa’s	
  Soils	
  are	
  Degrading	
  
Rapidly	
  
For	
  SSA	
  land	
  degrada,on	
  
hotspots	
  affect	
  26%	
  of	
  
the	
  land	
  area	
  
	
  
The	
  economic	
  loss	
  is	
  
about	
  $68	
  billion	
  a	
  year	
  
affec,ng	
  180	
  million	
  
people	
  
	
  
	
   Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Healthy	
  Soils	
  
	
  
A	
  Healthy	
  Soil	
  is	
  strong	
  in	
  Structure	
  
With	
  an	
  op,mal	
  mix	
  of	
  large	
  and	
  small	
  
par,cle	
  sizes	
  
Providing	
  good	
  permeability	
  and	
  
water	
  holding	
  capacity.	
  
It	
  is	
  highly	
  fer,le	
  with	
  rich	
  humus	
  
and	
  sufficient	
  nutrients	
  for	
  high	
  yields	
  
It	
  is	
  also	
  rich	
  in	
  soil	
  biota	
  
and	
  contains	
  no	
  pollutants.	
  
REPAIR,	
  RESTORE,	
  ENHANCE	
  AND	
  CARE	
   Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Soil	
  Pit	
  
Chimoio,	
  Mozambique	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Maize	
  plus	
  mulch	
  only	
  
Mozambique	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Combining	
  Conserva,on	
  Agriculture	
  
with	
  Microdosing	
  
Microdosing	
  
Conserva,on	
  	
  
Agriculture	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Emissions	
  con,nue	
  to	
  rise	
  	
  
over	
  next	
  century,	
  	
  
leading	
  to	
  about	
  40C	
  above	
  preindustrial	
  
IPPC,	
  2014.	
  Summary	
  for	
  Policy	
  Makers	
  
	
   	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  If	
  Greenhouse	
  Gas	
  Emissions	
  	
  
	
  	
   	
   	
   	
  	
  remain	
  High	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
More than 5%
reduction in length of
growing period
Average Annual Max
Temp > 300C
Source:	
  Ericksen	
  et	
  al	
  Mapping	
  hotspots	
  of	
  climate	
  change	
  and	
  food	
  insecurity	
  in	
  the	
  global	
  tropics	
  
Climate	
  Smart	
  Soil	
  
CLIMATE	
  SMART	
  SOIL	
  HELPS	
  AGRICULTURAL	
  SYSTEMS	
  BECOME	
  BETTER	
  ADAPTED	
  AND	
  
RESILIENT	
  TO	
  THE	
  ADVERSE	
  EFFECTS	
  OF	
  CLIMATE	
  CHANGE,	
  WHILE	
  MINIMISING	
  THE	
  
EMISSIONS	
  OF	
  GHGS	
  AND	
  RESTORING	
  THE	
  LOST	
  CARBON	
  IN	
  THE	
  SOIL	
  
	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Adapta,on	
  
•  Reducing	
  the	
  impact	
  of	
  high	
  temperatures	
  
– Eg	
  by	
  Mulching	
  
•  Conserving	
  moisture	
  
– Eg	
  Terracing	
  	
  
•  Drought	
  Tolerant	
  Varie,es	
  
– Eg	
  Maize	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Increasingly	
  frequent	
  and	
  severe	
  
droughts,	
  floods,	
  and	
  storms	
  
	
  
Fer,le	
  lowlands	
  good	
  crops	
  but	
  
can	
  be	
  destroyed	
  during	
  flood	
  
	
  	
  
Highlands	
  good	
  crops	
  of	
  maize	
  
and	
  cassava	
  during	
  flood	
  years,	
  
but	
  less	
  produc,ve	
  otherwise	
  	
  
	
  
hOp://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/landscape/projects/adap)v...	
  	
  
Eduardo	
  Mondlane	
  
	
  	
   	
   	
   	
  	
   	
  Resilience	
  in	
  Nwadjahane,	
  	
  
	
   	
  	
  	
   	
   	
  Mozambique	
  	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Mi,ga,on	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Carbon	
  Sequestra,on	
  
•  Key	
  is	
  Soil	
  Organic	
  Carbon	
  (SOC)	
  
•  SOC	
  lost	
  due	
  to	
  agricultural	
  prac,ces	
  
•  Can	
  be	
  put	
  back	
  
– Conserva,on	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  farming	
  
– Agroforestry	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Risk	
  and	
  The	
  Dynamics	
  of	
  
Resilience	
  
	
  	
   	
   	
   	
  	
   	
  The	
  Dynamics	
  of	
  Resilience	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Farmer	
  
Innova,on	
  
in	
  the	
  
Sunderbans	
  
India	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  How	
  do	
  we	
  build	
  	
  
	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Resilient	
  Livelihoods?	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Poli,cal	
  Leadership	
  
Imperial	
  College,	
  
London	
  
President	
  John	
  Kufuor,	
  	
  
Ghana	
  
President	
  Filipe	
  Nyusi,	
  
Mozambique	
  
Rural Economy
Farm Household in a
Farmer Association
Seed Co
Agro
dealer
Fertiliser
Co
Banks for
microcredit
Local
trader
Connectivity
Regional trade
National trade
Model	
  of	
  Alliance	
  for	
  a	
  Green	
  Revolu,on	
  for	
  Africa	
  (AGRA)	
  
	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
   	
  An	
  Enabling	
  Environment	
  
 	
  	
   	
   	
  	
  	
  It	
  is	
  about	
  People	
  
For more info on Ag4Impact,
go to:
www.ag4impact.org
www.canwefeedtheworld.org
Contact:
gordon@ag4impact.org
Twitter:@Ag4Impact
Facebook: One Billion Hungry

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A green revolution for Mozambique, march 5, 2015

  • 1. info@ag4impact.org Tel. +44 (0) 207 594 9337 Twitter:@Ag4Impact Facebook: One Billion Hungry   Sir Gordon Conway Professor of International Development, Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College   A  Green   Revolu,on  for   Mozambique?   Maputo,  Mozambique   March  6th,  2015  
  • 2. The Global Crises Financial Food security Water Civil Strife Climate Change Energy Supply Ecosystem Functions ‘A  Perfect  Storm’            The  Global  Crises   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 3. We  have  to  Intensify   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 4. Survival line Months Potentialharvest(tons/ha) 1 2 3 2 31 4 Weeds Pests Drought An  Insecure  Farm   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 5. Survival  line   Months   Poten,al  harvest  (tons/ha)   1   2   3   2   3  1   4   Weeds   Pests  &  diseases   Drought   Soil   Fer)lity   >2  t/ha   Resilient  Crops   A  Secure  Farm   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 6.            The  Key  Ingredients    of  a                    Mozambique  Green  Revolu,on   •  And  from  Value  Chains  to  Local,  Na,onal,  Regional  and   Interna,onal  Markets   •  Linked  via  Warehouses  to  Value  Chains  and  Food  Processors   •  BEGIN  WITH   •  Farmers  with  rights  to  land  and  belonging  to  Farmer   Associa,ons   •  With  easy  access  to  seeds,  fer,lisers,  credit  through   Agrodealers   •  Provided  by  local  seed  and  fer,lizer  blending  companies   and  local  banks   •  PLUS   •  Investments  both  technological  and  financial   •  Poli,cal  Leadership  and  appropriate  Enabling  Environments  
  • 7. Sustainably  Intensifying  the  links    between  farmers     Farmer Associations Cooperatives Cereal Banks Contract Farms Outgrowers        Farmer  Associa,ons   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 8. Input MarketsInput  Markets   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 9.          Seed  companies   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 10.          Warehouse              Uganda   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 11.          Warehouse              Mozambique   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 12. Maize  Cob  Sheller                        Youthful  entrepreneurs                Uganda   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 13. URBAN   LIVELIHOODS   RURAL   DEVELOPMENT   RESEARCH  &  DEVELOPMENT   NATIONAL   MARKETS   ASSUMED  RISK   NUTRITION   WASTE   ADDED  VALUE   RURAL   LIVELIHOODS   REGIONAL   MARKETS   INTERNATIONAL   MARKETS   FOOD   PRODUCTION   VALUE  CHAINS   LAND  TENURE   BUILD   RESILIENCE   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 14.            Ethiopian              Commodity  Exchange   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 15. ¡ There is not much more new arable land available and water is scarce ¡ We have to intensify ¡ More with Less ¡ Greater productivity but minimised environmental footprint            We  have  to  Intensify   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 16.          But  it  has  to  be  sustainable   •  With efficient and prudent use of inputs •  Pesticides, herbicides, fertilisers •  Minimising emissions of Greenhouse Gases •  Methane, nitrous oxide, CO2 •  While increasing natural capital and environmental services •  Soil moisture, natural enemies of pests •  Strengthening Resilience •  Reducing environmental impact Imperial  College,   London  
  • 17.                  We  need                    Precise  Technologies   Microdosing  in  Niger   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 18. Microdosing  Water   Drip  Irriga,on   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 19.            Targeted  Fer,lisers            Ethiopia   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 20.            Targeted  Fer,lisers            Mozambique   Imperial  College,   London   Blended  N,  P,  K   Zn,  Mo,  Bo,  S   Plus  Lime         4-­‐6  tons  /  ha  
  • 21. Mul,ple  Approaches   •  Ecology   •  Gene,cs   •  Socio-­‐economics   •  plus  Integrated   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 22. •  Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices •  e.g. – Agroforestry – Integrated Pest Management – Organic farming In                      Sustainable  Ecological                      Intensifica,on     Imperial  College,   London   Intercropping     maize  and  cowpea  
  • 23.                Rotate  with  Legumes   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 24. Sustainable Genetic Intensification •  Plants more nutritious –  carbohydrate and protein –  micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc) •  Plants more resilient to –  pests and diseases –  climate change •  Plants more efficient at –  converting sunlight to food –  taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere –  using water Modern  Plant  Breeding                    Sustainable  Gene,c                Intensifica,on   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 25.                  Orange  Fleshed                    Sweet  Potatoes   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 26. Sustainably  Intensifying  the  links    between  farmers  and  markets   Kenya   Sussex            Sustainable  Socio-­‐economic        Intensifica,on   Tanzania   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 27. •  Integrated  Pest  Management  (IPM)   •  Integrated  Soil  Management  (ISM)            Integrated  Approaches                               Imperial  College,   London  
  • 28. Africa’s  Soils  are  Degrading   Rapidly   For  SSA  land  degrada,on   hotspots  affect  26%  of   the  land  area     The  economic  loss  is   about  $68  billion  a  year   affec,ng  180  million   people       Imperial  College,   London  
  • 29. Healthy  Soils     A  Healthy  Soil  is  strong  in  Structure   With  an  op,mal  mix  of  large  and  small   par,cle  sizes   Providing  good  permeability  and   water  holding  capacity.   It  is  highly  fer,le  with  rich  humus   and  sufficient  nutrients  for  high  yields   It  is  also  rich  in  soil  biota   and  contains  no  pollutants.   REPAIR,  RESTORE,  ENHANCE  AND  CARE   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 30. Soil  Pit   Chimoio,  Mozambique   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 31. Maize  plus  mulch  only   Mozambique   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 32. Combining  Conserva,on  Agriculture   with  Microdosing   Microdosing   Conserva,on     Agriculture   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 33. Emissions  con,nue  to  rise     over  next  century,     leading  to  about  40C  above  preindustrial   IPPC,  2014.  Summary  for  Policy  Makers              If  Greenhouse  Gas  Emissions                remain  High   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 34. More than 5% reduction in length of growing period Average Annual Max Temp > 300C Source:  Ericksen  et  al  Mapping  hotspots  of  climate  change  and  food  insecurity  in  the  global  tropics   Climate  Smart  Soil   CLIMATE  SMART  SOIL  HELPS  AGRICULTURAL  SYSTEMS  BECOME  BETTER  ADAPTED  AND   RESILIENT  TO  THE  ADVERSE  EFFECTS  OF  CLIMATE  CHANGE,  WHILE  MINIMISING  THE   EMISSIONS  OF  GHGS  AND  RESTORING  THE  LOST  CARBON  IN  THE  SOIL     Imperial  College,   London  
  • 35. Adapta,on   •  Reducing  the  impact  of  high  temperatures   – Eg  by  Mulching   •  Conserving  moisture   – Eg  Terracing     •  Drought  Tolerant  Varie,es   – Eg  Maize   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 36. Increasingly  frequent  and  severe   droughts,  floods,  and  storms     Fer,le  lowlands  good  crops  but   can  be  destroyed  during  flood       Highlands  good  crops  of  maize   and  cassava  during  flood  years,   but  less  produc,ve  otherwise       hOp://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/landscape/projects/adap)v...     Eduardo  Mondlane                Resilience  in  Nwadjahane,                Mozambique     Imperial  College,   London  
  • 38. Carbon  Sequestra,on   •  Key  is  Soil  Organic  Carbon  (SOC)   •  SOC  lost  due  to  agricultural  prac,ces   •  Can  be  put  back   – Conserva,on            farming   – Agroforestry   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 39. Risk  and  The  Dynamics  of   Resilience                The  Dynamics  of  Resilience   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 40. Farmer   Innova,on   in  the   Sunderbans   India                                        How  do  we  build                                          Resilient  Livelihoods?   Imperial  College,   London  
  • 43.                                    Poli,cal  Leadership   Imperial  College,   London   President  John  Kufuor,     Ghana   President  Filipe  Nyusi,   Mozambique  
  • 44. Rural Economy Farm Household in a Farmer Association Seed Co Agro dealer Fertiliser Co Banks for microcredit Local trader Connectivity Regional trade National trade Model  of  Alliance  for  a  Green  Revolu,on  for  Africa  (AGRA)                An  Enabling  Environment  
  • 45.              It  is  about  People  
  • 46. For more info on Ag4Impact, go to: www.ag4impact.org www.canwefeedtheworld.org Contact: gordon@ag4impact.org Twitter:@Ag4Impact Facebook: One Billion Hungry