Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.
info@ag4impact.org
Tel. +44 (0) 207 594 9311
Twitter:@Ag4Impact
Facebook: One Billion Hungry
Sir Gordon Conway
Professor o...
The Global Crises
Financial
Food security
Water
Civil Strife
Climate Change
Energy Supply
Ecosystem
Functions
The Crises a...
What we have to
achieve
A Key role for agriculture, food & nutrition security
in the international climate change negotiat...
The Global Food Crisis
Increasing food prices and recurring food price
spikes
About 1 billion people
(1 in 6 of the world’s population)
are chron...
IMF prices
Imperial College,
London
They are under height for their age and suffer from
stunted development and possible blindness and
death
Child malnutritio...
Demand
• Population Growth
• Changing Diets
• Biofuel Demand
Supply
• Rising fuel and
fertiliser prices
• Land degradation...
Emissions continue to rise over next
century, leading to about 40C above
preindustrial levels.
IPPC, 2014. Summary for Pol...
The Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
• Crop Plants and Livestock are inherently
affected by:
• Too much or too little water
• Too high or too low temperatures
...
Source: ILRI, 2006, Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty.
Rwanda and
neighbours
Days
Length of Growing Period
Imperia...
More than 5%
reduction in length of
growing period.
Over next 100 years?
Source: Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climat...
Growing Season Temperature
1980 -2008
Imperial College,
London
The Climate is Changing - UK
Variation in farm income induced
by climate change under high
emissions
Climate Change in the...
Average
Annual Max
Temp > 300C
by 2050
Source: Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change
and food insecurity in th...
Each degree day spent above
30 °C
reduced the final yield by 1%
under optimal rain-fed
conditions
by 1.7% under drought
co...
Grain-filling stage
CIMMYT. Atlas of Maize in Africa. CIMMYT,
Mexico
www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/atl
as...
Over 80% Global Production, Value over $4bn
Groundwater Depletion and Aquifer collapse
Drought and Almonds in California,
...
Russia
• Severe heatwave in 2010
• 30% of grain crops lost to burning
• $15bn total loss
Pakistan
• Worst floods in 80 yea...
Farmers are
especially vulnerable
• Millions of Farmers in developing countries:
• are small smallholders with <1ha
• are ...
• 80% of population in sub-Saharan Africa is rural
• 70% of these depend on food production (crops or
livestock) for most ...
Farmer Associations
Cooperatives
Cereal Banks
Contract Farms
Outgrowers
Farmer Associations are a
source of strength
Sustainable Intensification
 Agricultural land is becoming
severely degraded
 Water for agriculture is becoming
scarce
 We have to produce More wit...
But it has to be
sustainable
• With efficient and prudent use of inputs
• Pesticides, herbicides, fertilisers
• Adapting t...
Adaptation
Multiple Potential Approaches to
Adaptation
• Sustainable Agro-ecological Intensification
• Sustainable Genetic Intensific...
• Use ecological principles to design adaptive
agricultural practices
e.g.
–Agroforestry
–Integrated Pest
Management
–Orga...
http://www.taa.org.uk/assets/pubs/Tony%20Reynolds%20v2%20Lan
Benefits
•8.75 to 10 ton/ha wheat
•Crop establishment cost £2...
Conservation Farming
Zambia
Imperial College,
London
• Plants more nutritious
– carbohydrate and protein
– micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc)
• Plants more resilient to
– pest...
Orange Fleshed Sweet
Potatoes
Imperial College,
London
Florence Sipalla, CIMMYT
Drought Tolerant Maize
Imperial College,
London
Sustainably Intensifying the links between farmers and markets
Kenya
Sussex
Tanzania Ethiopia
Sustainable Adaptive
Socio-e...
URBAN
LIVELIHOODS
RURAL
DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
NATIONAL
MARKETS
ASSUMED RISK
NUTRITION
WASTE
ADDED VALUE
RURAL...
Adaptation:
Top Down or
Bottom Up?
• Contingency plans and adaptive measures
need to be taken.
• Anticipatory, proactive a...
Increasingly frequent and severe
droughts, floods, and storms
Fertile lowlands good crops but
can be destroyed during floo...
Risk and The Dynamics of
Resilience
The Dynamics of Resilience
Imperial College,
London
Farmer
Innovation in
the
Sunderbans
India
How do we build
Resilient Livelihoods?
Imperial College,
London
Integrated Approaches
• Integrated Pest Management (IPM)
Combines modern technology, the application of synthetic, yet
selective, pesticides, an...
Le, Q.B., Nkonya, E. and A. Mirzabaev. 2014. Biomass Productivity-Based Mapping of Global Land
Degradation Hotspots. (ZEF ...
Africa’s Soils are Degrading
Rapidly
For SSA land
degradation hotspots
affect 26% of the land
area
The economic loss is
ab...
A Healthy Soil is strong in Structure
With an optimal mix of large and small
particle sizes
Providing good permeability an...
Climate Smart Soil
Imperial College,
London
Soil Pit
Chimoio, Mozambique
Imperial College,
London
Blended N, P, K
Zn, Mo, Bo, S
Plus Lime
4-6 tons / ha
Targeted Fertilisers
Mozambique
Imperial College,
London
http://www.willingtoncropservices.co.uk/
Phosphorus Deficiency
Harper Adams University
Precision Farming
Imperial College,...
Combining Conservation Agriculture
with Microdosing
Microdosing
Conservation
Agriculture
Imperial College,
London
Mitigation
Agriculture is a Significant
Emitter of GreenHouse Gases
• Agriculture emits nitrous oxide, methane and
carbon dioxide.
• ...
GHGs and Agriculture
Imperial College,
London
• Key is Soil Organic Carbon (SOC)
• SOC lost due to agricultural practices
• Can be put back
– Conservation
farming
– Agr...
Incentives
Incentives
• Despite the considerable potential gains
• Uptake of ISM in Africa remains low
• Many factors affect farmers ...
There is a need to scale-up funding
• Development organisations, governments and the private
sector need to devise new fin...
• Countries have agreed to publicly outline in their
INDCs what actions they intend to take under a
global agreement well ...
• Eg
• Country X will agree to plant ????million ha of
Faidherbia agroforestry.
• They will be rewarded on the basis of es...
Political Leadership and People
It Is All About People
Imperial College,
London
Thank you
For more info on Ag4Impact, go to:
www.ag4impact.org
Contact:
info@ag4impact.org
Tel. +44 (0) 207 594 9337
Twitt...
We are all in the same boat.climate smart agriculture seminar, Montpellier march 15, 2015
We are all in the same boat.climate smart agriculture seminar, Montpellier march 15, 2015
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

We are all in the same boat.climate smart agriculture seminar, Montpellier march 15, 2015

657 views

Published on

It is becoming increasingly obvious that human-induced climate change is affecting us all albeit in different ways. We all have to adapt and although the practices may be different there are common principles. We also all have a role to play in mitigating the effects, even if our responsibilities differ.
For example, the enormity of land degradation in both developed and developing countries requires that we invest in climate smart soils. Sustainable Intensification also offers a framework for addressing these complex global challenges. Maybe there are other solutions and lessons to draw?

Published in: Science
  • Don't forget another good way of simplifying your writing is using external resources (such as ⇒ www.WritePaper.info ⇐ ). This will definitely make your life more easier
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here

We are all in the same boat.climate smart agriculture seminar, Montpellier march 15, 2015

  1. 1. info@ag4impact.org Tel. +44 (0) 207 594 9311 Twitter:@Ag4Impact Facebook: One Billion Hungry Sir Gordon Conway Professor of International Development, Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College We are all in the same boat: Food production and food security under threat by climate change Climate-Smart Agriculture Conference Montpellier, France March 15, 2015
  2. 2. The Global Crises Financial Food security Water Civil Strife Climate Change Energy Supply Ecosystem Functions The Crises all Around Us Imperial College, London
  3. 3. What we have to achieve A Key role for agriculture, food & nutrition security in the international climate change negotiations. • Agricultural adaptation: agree on the principles and practices. • Agricultural mitigation: agree the potential practical role of agriculture in mitigating climate change. • National strategies that reflect targets for achieving climate smart agriculture. • Public and private financing mechanisms to make this happen. Imperial College, London
  4. 4. The Global Food Crisis
  5. 5. Increasing food prices and recurring food price spikes About 1 billion people (1 in 6 of the world’s population) are chronically hungry We have to increase food production by 60- 100% by 2050 We Face 3 Interconnected Challenges Imperial College, London
  6. 6. IMF prices Imperial College, London
  7. 7. They are under height for their age and suffer from stunted development and possible blindness and death Child malnutrition Imperial College, London
  8. 8. Demand • Population Growth • Changing Diets • Biofuel Demand Supply • Rising fuel and fertiliser prices • Land degradation • Water scarcity CLIMATE CHANGE MAKES ALL OF THIS MORE DIFFICULT Feeding the World by 2050 Imperial College, London
  9. 9. Emissions continue to rise over next century, leading to about 40C above preindustrial levels. IPPC, 2014. Summary for Policy Makers If GHG emissions remain high Imperial College, London
  10. 10. The Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture
  11. 11. • Crop Plants and Livestock are inherently affected by: • Too much or too little water • Too high or too low temperatures • The length of growing season • Seasonal variation • Other climatic extremes Agriculture is especially vulnerable Imperial College, London
  12. 12. Source: ILRI, 2006, Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty. Rwanda and neighbours Days Length of Growing Period Imperial College, London
  13. 13. More than 5% reduction in length of growing period. Over next 100 years? Source: Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics Shorter growing periods Imperial College, London
  14. 14. Growing Season Temperature 1980 -2008 Imperial College, London
  15. 15. The Climate is Changing - UK Variation in farm income induced by climate change under high emissions Climate Change in the UK Imperial College, London
  16. 16. Average Annual Max Temp > 300C by 2050 Source: Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics High temperatures Imperial College, London
  17. 17. Each degree day spent above 30 °C reduced the final yield by 1% under optimal rain-fed conditions by 1.7% under drought conditions. Lobell,, D.B. et al. 2011.Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials.Nature Climate Change (2011) doi:10.1038/nclimate1043 Maize: Effects of High Temperatures Imperial College, London
  18. 18. Grain-filling stage CIMMYT. Atlas of Maize in Africa. CIMMYT, Mexico www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/atl asafricanag_all.pdf Maize is highly vulnerable High Inputs Imperial College, London
  19. 19. Over 80% Global Production, Value over $4bn Groundwater Depletion and Aquifer collapse Drought and Almonds in California, 2014/15 Imperial College, London
  20. 20. Russia • Severe heatwave in 2010 • 30% of grain crops lost to burning • $15bn total loss Pakistan • Worst floods in 80 years • Submerged 1/5th of the country, • Including 14% of Pakistan’s cultivated land Weather Extremes, 2010/11 Imperial College, London
  21. 21. Farmers are especially vulnerable • Millions of Farmers in developing countries: • are small smallholders with <1ha • are poor <$1 a day • cannot feed their families • are highly vulnerable to extreme climatic events • In developed countries, many farmers: • struggle to make a living • depend on subsidies and insurance payouts • and are also highly vulnerable to extreme climatic events Imperial College, London
  22. 22. • 80% of population in sub-Saharan Africa is rural • 70% of these depend on food production (crops or livestock) for most of their livelihoods. • In SSA rural poverty accounts for 90% of total poverty • Small-scale farming provides most of the food produced in Africa Employs 60 – 70% of working people. Farmers are especially vulnerable Imperial College, London
  23. 23. Farmer Associations Cooperatives Cereal Banks Contract Farms Outgrowers Farmer Associations are a source of strength
  24. 24. Sustainable Intensification
  25. 25.  Agricultural land is becoming severely degraded  Water for agriculture is becoming scarce  We have to produce More with Less  Greater productivity but minimised environmental footprint We have to Intensify Imperial College, London
  26. 26. But it has to be sustainable • With efficient and prudent use of inputs • Pesticides, herbicides, fertilisers • Adapting to Climate Change • Ecological, genetic, Socio-economic approaches • Minimising emissions of Greenhouse Gases • Methane, nitrous oxide, CO2 • While increasing natural capital and environmental services • Soil moisture, natural enemies of pests • Strengthening Resilience • Reducing environmental impact Imperial College, London
  27. 27. Adaptation
  28. 28. Multiple Potential Approaches to Adaptation • Sustainable Agro-ecological Intensification • Sustainable Genetic Intensification • Sustainable Socio-economic Intensification • Sustainable Integration Imperial College, London
  29. 29. • Use ecological principles to design adaptive agricultural practices e.g. –Agroforestry –Integrated Pest Management –Organic farming Intercropping maize and legume Sustainable Adaptive Agro-ecological Intensification Imperial College, London
  30. 30. http://www.taa.org.uk/assets/pubs/Tony%20Reynolds%20v2%20Lan Benefits •8.75 to 10 ton/ha wheat •Crop establishment cost £245 down to £36/ ha •Fuel use 96 to 43 l/ha •No wind erosion •No moisture stress •Elimination of black grass Conservation Agriculture, UK Imperial College, London
  31. 31. Conservation Farming Zambia Imperial College, London
  32. 32. • Plants more nutritious – carbohydrate and protein – micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc) • Plants more resilient to – pests and diseases – climate change • Plants more efficient at – converting sunlight to food – taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere – using water Sustainable Adaptive Genetic Intensification Imperial College, London
  33. 33. Orange Fleshed Sweet Potatoes Imperial College, London
  34. 34. Florence Sipalla, CIMMYT Drought Tolerant Maize Imperial College, London
  35. 35. Sustainably Intensifying the links between farmers and markets Kenya Sussex Tanzania Ethiopia Sustainable Adaptive Socio-economic Intensification Imperial College, London
  36. 36. URBAN LIVELIHOODS RURAL DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT NATIONAL MARKETS ASSUMED RISK NUTRITION WASTE ADDED VALUE RURAL LIVELIHOODS REGIONAL MARKETS INTERNATIONAL MARKETS FOOD PRODUCTION VALUECHAINS LAND TENURE ADAPTATION & RESILIENCE MITIGATION Value Chains Imperial College, London
  37. 37. Adaptation: Top Down or Bottom Up? • Contingency plans and adaptive measures need to be taken. • Anticipatory, proactive approaches are better than reactive approaches. • There is need for large-scale publically funded and supported adaptation initiatives. • But we need to build on local initiatives Imperial College, London
  38. 38. Increasingly frequent and severe droughts, floods, and storms Fertile lowlands good crops but can be destroyed during flood Highlands good crops of maize and cassava during flood years, but less productive otherwise http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/landscape/projects/adaptiv... Eduardo Mondlane Resilience in Nwadjahane, Mozambique Imperial College, London
  39. 39. Risk and The Dynamics of Resilience The Dynamics of Resilience Imperial College, London
  40. 40. Farmer Innovation in the Sunderbans India How do we build Resilient Livelihoods? Imperial College, London
  41. 41. Integrated Approaches
  42. 42. • Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Combines modern technology, the application of synthetic, yet selective, pesticides, and the engineering of pest resistance with natural methods of control. • Integrated Soil Management (ISM) Combines organic approaches with a prudent use of necessary inputs, through microdosing water and fertiliser. On Africa’s depleted soils, production cannot be increased and maintained without bringing nutrients in from the outside, either through livestock manure, mineral fertiliser or cultivation of legumes. Integrated Approaches Imperial College, London
  43. 43. Le, Q.B., Nkonya, E. and A. Mirzabaev. 2014. Biomass Productivity-Based Mapping of Global Land Degradation Hotspots. (ZEF Discussion Papers 193) Land degradation hot spots cover about 29% of global land area, inhabited by 3.2b people Global Soils are Degrading Rapidly Imperial College, London
  44. 44. Africa’s Soils are Degrading Rapidly For SSA land degradation hotspots affect 26% of the land area The economic loss is about $68 billion a year affecting 180 million people Le, Q.B., Nkonya, E. and A. Mirzabaev. 2014. Biomass Productivity-Based Mapping of Global Land Degradation Hotspots. (ZEF Discussion Papers 193) Imperial College, London
  45. 45. A Healthy Soil is strong in Structure With an optimal mix of large and small particle sizes Providing good permeability and water holding capacity. It is highly fertile with rich humus and sufficient nutrients for high yields It is also rich in soil biota and contains no pollutants. REPAIR, RESTORE, ENHANCE AND CARE Healthy Soils Imperial College, London
  46. 46. Climate Smart Soil Imperial College, London
  47. 47. Soil Pit Chimoio, Mozambique Imperial College, London
  48. 48. Blended N, P, K Zn, Mo, Bo, S Plus Lime 4-6 tons / ha Targeted Fertilisers Mozambique Imperial College, London
  49. 49. http://www.willingtoncropservices.co.uk/ Phosphorus Deficiency Harper Adams University Precision Farming Imperial College, London
  50. 50. Combining Conservation Agriculture with Microdosing Microdosing Conservation Agriculture Imperial College, London
  51. 51. Mitigation
  52. 52. Agriculture is a Significant Emitter of GreenHouse Gases • Agriculture emits nitrous oxide, methane and carbon dioxide. • Nitrous oxide and methane are 300 times and 35 times respectively as powerful in contributing to global warming as carbon dioxide. • Cultivation of the soil can reduce the carbon containing humus. • The cumulative historical loss of carbon dioxide from agriculture is between 50 and 78 Gt of carbon dioxide. AGRICULTURE HAS A POTENTIAL ROLE IN MITIGATION Imperial College, London
  53. 53. GHGs and Agriculture Imperial College, London
  54. 54. • Key is Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) • SOC lost due to agricultural practices • Can be put back – Conservation farming – Agroforestry Carbon Sequestration Imperial College, London
  55. 55. Incentives
  56. 56. Incentives • Despite the considerable potential gains • Uptake of ISM in Africa remains low • Many factors affect farmers decisions • Too often the choice is made to forgo better land management practices in lieu of more affordable, less labour intensive or alternative uses of resources • We need stronger incentives and better information Imperial College, London
  57. 57. There is a need to scale-up funding • Development organisations, governments and the private sector need to devise new financial and programming instruments to address these challenges A good example is IFAD’s ASAP programme: World's largest climate change adaptation programme focused explicitly on smallholder farmers; More than USD 300 million channelled to at least 8 million smallholder farmers to build their resilience to climate- related shocks and stresses; Financed by IFAD and the governments of Belgium, Canada, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and United Kingdom. Imperial College, London
  58. 58. • Countries have agreed to publicly outline in their INDCs what actions they intend to take under a global agreement well before the Paris Summit. • Their form and rigor will largely determine whether an ambitious 2015 agreement will be achieved. • It is crucial that INDCs address both options for adaptation and mitigation in agriculture Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Imperial College, London
  59. 59. • Eg • Country X will agree to plant ????million ha of Faidherbia agroforestry. • They will be rewarded on the basis of estimates of: 1. The adaptation contribution 2. The reduction in methane and nitrous oxide emissions 3. The carbon sequestered Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) Imperial College, London
  60. 60. Political Leadership and People
  61. 61. It Is All About People Imperial College, London
  62. 62. Thank you For more info on Ag4Impact, go to: www.ag4impact.org Contact: info@ag4impact.org Tel. +44 (0) 207 594 9337 Twitter:@Ag4Impact Facebook: One Billion Hungry

×