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Jun 10, 2011
[object Object],[object Object]
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[object Object]
[object Object]
[object Object]
[object Object]
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[object Object]
Example: Hybrid Cars © 2003, Toyota ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Jun 10, 2011 Example: Hybrid Cars © 2003, Toyota ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Examples: Tango ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Examples: Analog Audio
Examples: the Abacus © 2001, FSU ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Examples: the Mimeograph © 2001, Gowanda Pennysaver News ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Examples: Smartphone ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Examples: the Compact Disc © 2003, IEE Japan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Examples: DataPlay ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
Examples: DataPlay ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Examples: the Book ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Jun 10, 2011
 
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302 unit3 kurzweil

Editor's Notes

  1. OCR , music synthesis , speech recognition , reading technology , virtual reality , financial investment , medical simulation , and cybernetic art . All of these technologies continue today as market leaders. Raymond Kurzweil Inventor: principle developer of OCR, scanning, and text-to-speech, for disabled Noted futurist / technologist Entrepreneur: developed numerous businesses Kurzweil, cont. 1999 National Medal of Technology recipient 2002 inductee, National Inventors Hall of Fame See MIT Bio video clip (broadband & QuickTime required)
  2. Kurzweil’s 7 stages in the life cycle of a technology Precursor Invention Development Maturity False pretenders Obsolescence Antiquity
  3. 7 stages, cont. Precursor - “ the prerequisites of a technology exist, and dreamers may contemplate these elements coming together.” Not the same as inventing, since there is nothing tangible yet. Invention - Bringing a new technology to life.
  4. 7 stages, cont. Precursor - “ the prerequisites of a technology exist, and dreamers may contemplate these elements coming together.” Not the same as inventing, since there is nothing tangible yet. Invention - Bringing a new technology to life.
  5. 7 stages, cont. Development - “ the invention is protected and supported by …guardians [patents / IP], in order for it to take root and flourish.” Maturity - “ The technology now has a life of its own and has become an independent and established part of the community. It may become so interwoven in the fabric of life that it appears to many observers that it will last forever.”
  6. 7 stages, cont. Development - “ the invention is protected and supported by …guardians [patents / IP], in order for it to take root and flourish.” Maturity - “ The technology now has a life of its own and has become an independent and established part of the community. It may become so interwoven in the fabric of life that it appears to many observers that it will last forever.”
  7. 7 stages, cont. False pretenders - “A n upstart threatens to eclipse the older technology. Its enthusiasts prematurely predict victory. While providing some distinct benefits, the newer technology is found on reflection to be missing some key element of functionality or quality. …usually a short-lived victory for the aging technology”
  8. 7 stages, cont. Obsolescence - “ the technology lives out its senior years in gradual decline, its original purpose and functionality now subsumed by a more spry competitor.” Antiquity - An old or ancient technology no longer used; a relic
  9. 7 stages, cont. Obsolescence - “ the technology lives out its senior years in gradual decline, its original purpose and functionality now subsumed by a more spry competitor.” Antiquity - An old or ancient technology no longer used; a relic
  10. Invention / development / maturity stages, depending on specific car & type of hybrid technology used
  11. Prius = maturity
  12. Development or false pretender
  13. Album & cassette tape - obsolescence, 8-track tape - antiquity
  14. Antiquity (possibly maturity or obsolescence in some non-Western countries)
  15. Obsolescence or antiquity
  16. Development
  17. Maturity / obsolescence
  18. False pretender
  19. False pretender
  20. False pretender
  21. False pretender
  22. Hard to say which category book fall into, so let’s check out eBooks first…
  23. Kurzweil, The Future of Libraries (1994) “ The printed book, like any other technology, will not live forever.” “ Knowledge is not free, nor should it be.” “ Why do we have difficulty comprehending the value of information when the physical content of a product shrinks to nothing?”
  24. Electronic Books (eBooks) Growing industry Tons of content, both free / pay Established companies: eBooks, cont. Convenient Portable in terms of weight Portable in terms of space Text, images, links Choice of font size and type, text select, quote, text-to-speech Stunted industry Confusing mess of hardware / software Free content = old pay content = new eBooks, cont. Inconvenient Interoperability issues: content and platform Difficult to read Sharing is awkward or impossible, depending on format First sale impossible Backup copies?
  25. Will virtual libraries / eBooks replace actual libraries / hardcopy books? Can we own “soft” property? Out of Kurzweil’s “7 Stages”, which one best describes the current state of eBooks?