What is statistics and how is the discipline of statistics different to machine learning? Statistics is the oldest kind on the block of data science. However, it is not as popular as machine learning or deep learning is. Nevertheless, there are countless applications of statistical science in the real world.
Agent based modelling is a very useful and flexible modelling technique. It is especially useful when modelling complex systems, such as societies or economies. This makes it particularly useful when modelling token economies. Agent based modelling can be a powerful tool for any ICO.
This slideshare has been produced by the Tesseract Academy (http://tesseract.academy), a company that educates decision makers in deep technical topics such as data science, analytics, and blockchain.
For more information about this topic also visit The Data Scientist:
http://thedatascientist.com/statistics-vs-machine-learning-two-worlds/
Scientific research: What Anna Karenina teaches us about useful negative resultsDaniel S. Katz
a panel talk for the 1st Workshop on E-science ReseaRch leading tO negative Results (ERROR), held in conjunction with the 11th eScience conference on 3 September 2015 in Munich, Germany
This slidecast covers the seven stages in the life cycle of a technology, based on concepts and ideas from noted futurist and technologist Raymond Kurzweil.
Technology Forecasting - Monitoring and Intelligence MethodsMufaddal Nullwala
Introduction to Technology Forecasting
Activities to be carried out
Trend Extrapolation [Growth Curve Fitting]
Trend Impact Analysis(TIA)
Precursor Analysis
Long Wave analysis
MONITORING AND INTELLIGENCE METHODS
Technology Monitoring and Steps in Technology Monitoring
Bibliometrics
Research Profiling
Patent Analysis
Text Mining
What is statistics and how is the discipline of statistics different to machine learning? Statistics is the oldest kind on the block of data science. However, it is not as popular as machine learning or deep learning is. Nevertheless, there are countless applications of statistical science in the real world.
Agent based modelling is a very useful and flexible modelling technique. It is especially useful when modelling complex systems, such as societies or economies. This makes it particularly useful when modelling token economies. Agent based modelling can be a powerful tool for any ICO.
This slideshare has been produced by the Tesseract Academy (http://tesseract.academy), a company that educates decision makers in deep technical topics such as data science, analytics, and blockchain.
For more information about this topic also visit The Data Scientist:
http://thedatascientist.com/statistics-vs-machine-learning-two-worlds/
Scientific research: What Anna Karenina teaches us about useful negative resultsDaniel S. Katz
a panel talk for the 1st Workshop on E-science ReseaRch leading tO negative Results (ERROR), held in conjunction with the 11th eScience conference on 3 September 2015 in Munich, Germany
This slidecast covers the seven stages in the life cycle of a technology, based on concepts and ideas from noted futurist and technologist Raymond Kurzweil.
Technology Forecasting - Monitoring and Intelligence MethodsMufaddal Nullwala
Introduction to Technology Forecasting
Activities to be carried out
Trend Extrapolation [Growth Curve Fitting]
Trend Impact Analysis(TIA)
Precursor Analysis
Long Wave analysis
MONITORING AND INTELLIGENCE METHODS
Technology Monitoring and Steps in Technology Monitoring
Bibliometrics
Research Profiling
Patent Analysis
Text Mining
Not sure how to do this case analysis please help me do it!1.Are t.pdfamitbagga0808
Not sure how to do this case analysis please help me do it!
1.Are the regions similar?
2.What would be a good forecasting method to use?
3.Are there more advanced methods that might be considered?
Here is the data
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LYZHLx9f0Av9FJ6NLfULMU61cZPV3voqrVzbJNfV
jKk/edit?usp=sharing
Solution
Most people view the world as consisting of a large number of alternatives. Futures research
evolved as a way of examining the alternative futures and identifying the most probable.
Forecasting is designed to help decision making and planning in the present.
Forecasts empower people because their use implies that we can modify variables now to alter
(or be prepared for) the future. A prediction is an invitation to introduce change into a system.
There are several assumptions about forecasting:
1. There is no way to state what the future will be with complete certainty. Regardless of the
methods that we use there will always be an element of uncertainty until the forecast horizon has
come to pass.
2. There will always be blind spots in forecasts. We cannot, for example, forecast completely
new technologies for which there are no existing paradigms.
3. Providing forecasts to policy-makers will help them formulate social policy. The new social
policy, in turn, will affect the future, thus changing the accuracy of the forecast.
Many scholars have proposed a variety of ways to categorize forecasting methodologies. The
following classification is a modification of the schema developed by Gordon over two decades
ago:
Genius forecasting - This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck.
Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts
are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new
technologies with uncanny accuracy.
There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting
the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting
is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass.
Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream
science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply to difficult to accept. Our
current understanding of reality is not adequate to explain this phenomena.
Trend extrapolation - These methods examine trends and cycles in historical data, and then use
mathematical techniques to extrapolate to the future. The assumption of all these techniques is
that the forces responsible for creating the past, will continue to operate in the future. This is
often a valid assumption when forecasting short term horizons, but it falls short when creating
medium and long term forecasts. The further out we attempt to forecast, the less certain we
become of the forecast.
The stability of the environment is the key factor in determining whether tren.
Electric Load Forecasting Using Genetic Algorithm – A Review IJMER
Many real-world problems from operations research and management science are very
complex in nature and quite hard to solve by conventional optimization techniques. So, intelligent
solutions based on genetic algorithm (GA), to solve these complicated practical problems in various
sectors are becoming more and more widespread nowadays. GAs are being developed and deployed
worldwide in myriad applications, mainly because of their symbolic reasoning, flexibility and
explanation capabilities.
This paper provides an overview of GAs, as well as their current use in the field of electric load
forecasting. The types of GA are outlined, leading to a discussion of the various types and parameters of
load forecasting. The paper concludes by sharing thoughts and estimations on GA for load forecasting
for future prospects in this area. This review reveals that although still regarded as a novel
methodology, GA technologies are shown to have matured to the point of offering real practical benefits
in many of their applications.
Practical Opinion Mining for Social MediaDiana Maynard
This tutorial will introduce the concepts of sentiment analysis and opinion mining from unstructured text in social media, looking at why they are useful and what tools and techniques are available. It will cover both rule-based and machine learning techniques, provide some background information on the key underlying NLP processes required, and look in detail at some of the major problems and solutions, such as detection of sarcasm, use of informal language, spam opinion detection, trustworthiness of opinion holders, and so on. The techniques will be demonstrated with real applications developed in GATE, an open-source language processing toolkit. Links are provided to some hands-on material to try at home.
3rd alex marketing club (pharmaceutical forecasting) dr. ahmed sham'aMahmoud Bahgat
#Mahmoud_Bahgat
#Marketing_Club
Join us by WhatsApp to me 00966568654916
*اشترك في صفحة ال Marketing Club* عالفيسبوك
https://www.facebook.com/MarketingTipsPAGE/
*اشترك في جروب ال Marketing Club* عالفيسبوك
https://www.facebook.com/groups/837318003074869/
*Marketing Club Middle East*
25 Meetings in 6 Cities in 1 year & 2 months
Since October 2015
*We have 6 groups whatsapp*
*for almost 600 marketers*
From all middle east
*since 5 years*
& now 10 more groups
For Marketing Club Lovers as future Marketers
أهم حاجة الشروط
*Only marketers*
From all Industries
No students
*No sales*
*No hotels Reps*
*No restaurants Reps*
*No Travel Agents*
*No Advertising Agencies*
*Many have asked to Attend the Club*
((We Wish All can Attend,But Cant..))
*Criteria of Marketing Club Members*
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
For Better Harmony & Mind set.
*Must be only Marketer*
*Also Previous Marketing experience*
●Business Managers
●Country Manager,GM
●Directors, CEO
Are most welcomed to add Value to us.
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
《 *Unmatched Criteria*》
Not Med Rep,
Not Key Account,
Not Product Specialist,
Not Sales Supervisor,
Not Sales Manager,
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
But till you become a marketer
you can join other What'sApp group
*Marketing Lover Future Club Group*
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
《 *Unmatched Criteria*》
For Conflict of Intrest
*Also Can't attend*
If Working in
*Marketing Services Provider*
=not *Hotel* Marketers
=not *Restaurant* Marketers
=not *Advertising* Marketer
=not *Event Manager*
=not *Market Researcher*.
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
*this Club for Only Marketers*
Very Soon we will have
*Business Leaders Club*
For Sales Managers & Directors
Will be Not for Markters
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
■ *Only Marketers* ■
*& EPS Marketing Diploma*
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
Confirm coming by Pvt WhatsApp
*To know the new Location*
*#Mahmoud_Bahgat*
00966568654916
*#Marketing_Club*
http://goo.gl/forms/RfskGzDslP
*اشترك بصفحة جمعية الصيادلة المصريين* عالفيسبوك
https://lnkd.in/fucnv_5
■ *Bahgat Facbook Page*
https://lnkd.in/fVAdubA
■ *Bahgat Linkedin*
https://lnkd.in/fvDQXuG
■ *Bahgat Twitter*
https://lnkd.in/fmNC72T
■ *Bahgat YouTube Channel*
https://www.Youtube.com /mahmoud bahgat
■ *Bahgat Instagram*
https://lnkd.in/fmWPXrY
■ *Bahgat SnapChat*
https://lnkd.in/f6GR-mR
*#Mahmoud_Bahgat*
*#Legendary_ADLAND*
www.TheLegendary.info
Optimizing Data Synthesis and Visualization in Real-Time Decision-MakingCSSI_Inc
CSSI’s Kim Bender was a speaker at 2014's AMS Summer Community Meeting: Improving Forecasts and the Communication of Forecasts. Kim was a member of the panel on “Synthesizing Forecasting Information” which discussed the plethora of information forecasters have to guide their decisions.
Possibilistic prediction and risk analyses
A talk given at the EA annual Conference, Bonn, May 2015
Abstract:
It is in the nature of complex systems that predictions that give a probability are not possible.
Indeed I argue that giving "the most likely" or "rough" prediction is more harmful than useful.
Rather an approach which maps out some of the possible outcomes is outlined.
Agent-based modelling is ideal for producing these - including, crucially, possibilities that could not have been conceived just by thinking about it (due to the fact that events can combine in ways that are more complex than the human brain can cope with directly).
A characterisation of the real future possibilities and their nature allows some positive responses to events:
* putting in place 'early warning indicators' for the emergence of identified possibilities
* contingency planning for when they are indicated.
Such an approach would allow policy makers to better 'drive' their decision making, without abnegating responsibility to experts.
TECH 1940 Science & Tech? Science vs. Tech?Paul Cesarini
This slidecast covers content from Unit 1 of TECH 1940: Inquiry in Science & Technology, taught by Dr. Paul Cesarini, at Bowling Green State University.
Not sure how to do this case analysis please help me do it!1.Are t.pdfamitbagga0808
Not sure how to do this case analysis please help me do it!
1.Are the regions similar?
2.What would be a good forecasting method to use?
3.Are there more advanced methods that might be considered?
Here is the data
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LYZHLx9f0Av9FJ6NLfULMU61cZPV3voqrVzbJNfV
jKk/edit?usp=sharing
Solution
Most people view the world as consisting of a large number of alternatives. Futures research
evolved as a way of examining the alternative futures and identifying the most probable.
Forecasting is designed to help decision making and planning in the present.
Forecasts empower people because their use implies that we can modify variables now to alter
(or be prepared for) the future. A prediction is an invitation to introduce change into a system.
There are several assumptions about forecasting:
1. There is no way to state what the future will be with complete certainty. Regardless of the
methods that we use there will always be an element of uncertainty until the forecast horizon has
come to pass.
2. There will always be blind spots in forecasts. We cannot, for example, forecast completely
new technologies for which there are no existing paradigms.
3. Providing forecasts to policy-makers will help them formulate social policy. The new social
policy, in turn, will affect the future, thus changing the accuracy of the forecast.
Many scholars have proposed a variety of ways to categorize forecasting methodologies. The
following classification is a modification of the schema developed by Gordon over two decades
ago:
Genius forecasting - This method is based on a combination of intuition, insight, and luck.
Psychics and crystal ball readers are the most extreme case of genius forecasting. Their forecasts
are based exclusively on intuition. Science fiction writers have sometimes described new
technologies with uncanny accuracy.
There are many examples where men and women have been remarkable successful at predicting
the future. There are also many examples of wrong forecasts. The weakness in genius forecasting
is that its impossible to recognize a good forecast until the forecast has come to pass.
Some psychic individuals are capable of producing consistently accurate forecasts. Mainstream
science generally ignores this fact because the implications are simply to difficult to accept. Our
current understanding of reality is not adequate to explain this phenomena.
Trend extrapolation - These methods examine trends and cycles in historical data, and then use
mathematical techniques to extrapolate to the future. The assumption of all these techniques is
that the forces responsible for creating the past, will continue to operate in the future. This is
often a valid assumption when forecasting short term horizons, but it falls short when creating
medium and long term forecasts. The further out we attempt to forecast, the less certain we
become of the forecast.
The stability of the environment is the key factor in determining whether tren.
Electric Load Forecasting Using Genetic Algorithm – A Review IJMER
Many real-world problems from operations research and management science are very
complex in nature and quite hard to solve by conventional optimization techniques. So, intelligent
solutions based on genetic algorithm (GA), to solve these complicated practical problems in various
sectors are becoming more and more widespread nowadays. GAs are being developed and deployed
worldwide in myriad applications, mainly because of their symbolic reasoning, flexibility and
explanation capabilities.
This paper provides an overview of GAs, as well as their current use in the field of electric load
forecasting. The types of GA are outlined, leading to a discussion of the various types and parameters of
load forecasting. The paper concludes by sharing thoughts and estimations on GA for load forecasting
for future prospects in this area. This review reveals that although still regarded as a novel
methodology, GA technologies are shown to have matured to the point of offering real practical benefits
in many of their applications.
Practical Opinion Mining for Social MediaDiana Maynard
This tutorial will introduce the concepts of sentiment analysis and opinion mining from unstructured text in social media, looking at why they are useful and what tools and techniques are available. It will cover both rule-based and machine learning techniques, provide some background information on the key underlying NLP processes required, and look in detail at some of the major problems and solutions, such as detection of sarcasm, use of informal language, spam opinion detection, trustworthiness of opinion holders, and so on. The techniques will be demonstrated with real applications developed in GATE, an open-source language processing toolkit. Links are provided to some hands-on material to try at home.
3rd alex marketing club (pharmaceutical forecasting) dr. ahmed sham'aMahmoud Bahgat
#Mahmoud_Bahgat
#Marketing_Club
Join us by WhatsApp to me 00966568654916
*اشترك في صفحة ال Marketing Club* عالفيسبوك
https://www.facebook.com/MarketingTipsPAGE/
*اشترك في جروب ال Marketing Club* عالفيسبوك
https://www.facebook.com/groups/837318003074869/
*Marketing Club Middle East*
25 Meetings in 6 Cities in 1 year & 2 months
Since October 2015
*We have 6 groups whatsapp*
*for almost 600 marketers*
From all middle east
*since 5 years*
& now 10 more groups
For Marketing Club Lovers as future Marketers
أهم حاجة الشروط
*Only marketers*
From all Industries
No students
*No sales*
*No hotels Reps*
*No restaurants Reps*
*No Travel Agents*
*No Advertising Agencies*
*Many have asked to Attend the Club*
((We Wish All can Attend,But Cant..))
*Criteria of Marketing Club Members*
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
For Better Harmony & Mind set.
*Must be only Marketer*
*Also Previous Marketing experience*
●Business Managers
●Country Manager,GM
●Directors, CEO
Are most welcomed to add Value to us.
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
《 *Unmatched Criteria*》
Not Med Rep,
Not Key Account,
Not Product Specialist,
Not Sales Supervisor,
Not Sales Manager,
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
But till you become a marketer
you can join other What'sApp group
*Marketing Lover Future Club Group*
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
《 *Unmatched Criteria*》
For Conflict of Intrest
*Also Can't attend*
If Working in
*Marketing Services Provider*
=not *Hotel* Marketers
=not *Restaurant* Marketers
=not *Advertising* Marketer
=not *Event Manager*
=not *Market Researcher*.
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
*this Club for Only Marketers*
Very Soon we will have
*Business Leaders Club*
For Sales Managers & Directors
Will be Not for Markters
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
■ *Only Marketers* ■
*& EPS Marketing Diploma*
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
Confirm coming by Pvt WhatsApp
*To know the new Location*
*#Mahmoud_Bahgat*
00966568654916
*#Marketing_Club*
http://goo.gl/forms/RfskGzDslP
*اشترك بصفحة جمعية الصيادلة المصريين* عالفيسبوك
https://lnkd.in/fucnv_5
■ *Bahgat Facbook Page*
https://lnkd.in/fVAdubA
■ *Bahgat Linkedin*
https://lnkd.in/fvDQXuG
■ *Bahgat Twitter*
https://lnkd.in/fmNC72T
■ *Bahgat YouTube Channel*
https://www.Youtube.com /mahmoud bahgat
■ *Bahgat Instagram*
https://lnkd.in/fmWPXrY
■ *Bahgat SnapChat*
https://lnkd.in/f6GR-mR
*#Mahmoud_Bahgat*
*#Legendary_ADLAND*
www.TheLegendary.info
Optimizing Data Synthesis and Visualization in Real-Time Decision-MakingCSSI_Inc
CSSI’s Kim Bender was a speaker at 2014's AMS Summer Community Meeting: Improving Forecasts and the Communication of Forecasts. Kim was a member of the panel on “Synthesizing Forecasting Information” which discussed the plethora of information forecasters have to guide their decisions.
Possibilistic prediction and risk analyses
A talk given at the EA annual Conference, Bonn, May 2015
Abstract:
It is in the nature of complex systems that predictions that give a probability are not possible.
Indeed I argue that giving "the most likely" or "rough" prediction is more harmful than useful.
Rather an approach which maps out some of the possible outcomes is outlined.
Agent-based modelling is ideal for producing these - including, crucially, possibilities that could not have been conceived just by thinking about it (due to the fact that events can combine in ways that are more complex than the human brain can cope with directly).
A characterisation of the real future possibilities and their nature allows some positive responses to events:
* putting in place 'early warning indicators' for the emergence of identified possibilities
* contingency planning for when they are indicated.
Such an approach would allow policy makers to better 'drive' their decision making, without abnegating responsibility to experts.
TECH 1940 Science & Tech? Science vs. Tech?Paul Cesarini
This slidecast covers content from Unit 1 of TECH 1940: Inquiry in Science & Technology, taught by Dr. Paul Cesarini, at Bowling Green State University.
Thinking of getting a dog? Be aware that breeds like Pit Bulls, Rottweilers, and German Shepherds can be loyal and dangerous. Proper training and socialization are crucial to preventing aggressive behaviors. Ensure safety by understanding their needs and always supervising interactions. Stay safe, and enjoy your furry friends!
A review of the growth of the Israel Genealogy Research Association Database Collection for the last 12 months. Our collection is now passed the 3 million mark and still growing. See which archives have contributed the most. See the different types of records we have, and which years have had records added. You can also see what we have for the future.
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
Delivering Micro-Credentials in Technical and Vocational Education and TrainingAG2 Design
Explore how micro-credentials are transforming Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) with this comprehensive slide deck. Discover what micro-credentials are, their importance in TVET, the advantages they offer, and the insights from industry experts. Additionally, learn about the top software applications available for creating and managing micro-credentials. This presentation also includes valuable resources and a discussion on the future of these specialised certifications.
For more detailed information on delivering micro-credentials in TVET, visit this https://tvettrainer.com/delivering-micro-credentials-in-tvet/
Safalta Digital marketing institute in Noida, provide complete applications that encompass a huge range of virtual advertising and marketing additives, which includes search engine optimization, virtual communication advertising, pay-per-click on marketing, content material advertising, internet analytics, and greater. These university courses are designed for students who possess a comprehensive understanding of virtual marketing strategies and attributes.Safalta Digital Marketing Institute in Noida is a first choice for young individuals or students who are looking to start their careers in the field of digital advertising. The institute gives specialized courses designed and certification.
for beginners, providing thorough training in areas such as SEO, digital communication marketing, and PPC training in Noida. After finishing the program, students receive the certifications recognised by top different universitie, setting a strong foundation for a successful career in digital marketing.
This presentation was provided by Steph Pollock of The American Psychological Association’s Journals Program, and Damita Snow, of The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), for the initial session of NISO's 2024 Training Series "DEIA in the Scholarly Landscape." Session One: 'Setting Expectations: a DEIA Primer,' was held June 6, 2024.
Exploiting Artificial Intelligence for Empowering Researchers and Faculty, In...Dr. Vinod Kumar Kanvaria
Exploiting Artificial Intelligence for Empowering Researchers and Faculty,
International FDP on Fundamentals of Research in Social Sciences
at Integral University, Lucknow, 06.06.2024
By Dr. Vinod Kumar Kanvaria
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
Biological screening of herbal drugs: Introduction and Need for
Phyto-Pharmacological Screening, New Strategies for evaluating
Natural Products, In vitro evaluation techniques for Antioxidants, Antimicrobial and Anticancer drugs. In vivo evaluation techniques
for Anti-inflammatory, Antiulcer, Anticancer, Wound healing, Antidiabetic, Hepatoprotective, Cardio protective, Diuretics and
Antifertility, Toxicity studies as per OECD guidelines
1. February 5, 2013
Volti, Unit 1 information, chapters 1-3
• The Nature of Technology
• Winners and Losers: The Differential Effects
of Technological Change
• The Sources of Technological Change
2. February 5, 2013
Forecasting
• Any individual or organization affected by
technological change inevitably engages in
forecasting (financial, economic, etc.)
• Goal is not always to predict future
• examine trends
• predict likely scenarios
• develop contingency plans
3. February 5, 2013
Methods of Forecasting
• Summarized from Martino’s Technological
Forecasting: An Introduction handout (PDF
available in Course Documents area)
• Examples may overlap with more than one
method
4. February 5, 2013
Extrapolation
• Projecting a pattern that has been found in
the past, to anticipate potential outcomes in
the future
• Examples: Moore’s Law / El Nino
• Examples?
5. February 5, 2013
Leading Indicators
• Using one time series to anticipate / obtain
information another time series
• Assumption is that both time series share
similar behaviors, but with a time-lag
• Example: “What the barometer is doing today
is what the rain clouds will do tomorrow”
6. February 5, 2013
Causal Models
• Finding cause and effect relationships
• Contextualizing first two methods
• Example: understanding why the barometer
itself works, in order to better understand why
there will be rain clouds tomorrow.
7. February 5, 2013
Probabilistic Methods
• Forecasting using any combination of the first
three methods, then arriving at a range of
possible values
• Example: 70% chance of showers
Editor's Notes
Example: planning for Y2K bug back in late 1990s. No one was entirely certain what would definitely happen if we did nothing, so most companies did as much as possible to overcompensate against any potential problems that might arise as a result of it.
El Nino: Name given to the occasional development of warm ocean surface waters along the coast of Ecuador and Peru. When this warming occurs the tropical Pacific trade winds weaken and the usual upwelling of cold, nutrient rich deep ocean water off the coast of Ecuador and Peru is reduced. The El Nino normally occurs around Christmas and lasts usually for a few weeks to a few months. Sometimes an extremely warm event can develop that lasts for much longer time periods.
For presidential election: “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation”
A leading indicator for PC sales would be that there is usually more demand from July - September. A causal model would examine why this is the case: back-to-school shopping season