Presentación del Dr. Barry Hughes (EE.UU) Director del Pardee Center for International Futures, de la Universidad de Denver y autor el modelo prospectivo IFs, además de asesor del National Intelligence Council de USA, en el XII Foro del Futuro. 28.03.2014

1. Laimportanciadelaperspectivadel
futuroparaelPerúyLatinoamérica
Foro Internacional:
Barry Hughes
Director del Pardee Center for International
Futures, Universidad de Denver
Autor del modelo prospectivo IFs, además de
asesor del National Intelligence Council de USA

2. LONG-TERM FORECASTING WITH
INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS)
March 28, 2014
Lima, Peru
Barry B. Hughes
Frederick S. Pardee Center
University of Denver

3. THE PARDEE CENTER AND
THE INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS) SYSTEM
• Frederick S. Pardee Center at the Josef Korbel School of
International Studies at the University of Denver
• IFs developed over a 35+ year period
• Focus is on long-term, integrated scenario development
• Have produced Patterns of Potential Human Progress series:
Poverty, Education, Health, Infrastructure, and Governance
3

4. INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS) USERS
• United Nations Environment Programme: Global Environment Outlook 4
• United Nations Human Development Reports: HDRs 2012 and 2013
• European Union Commission: New Economy and Renewable Energy
Projects
• United States National Intelligence Council Reports to the President:
Global Trends 2020, 2025, 2030
• Others include: World Bank, Peru CEPLAN, Western Cape Provincial
Government, New Partnership for African Development, Population
Services International, United States Institute of Peace, Google Public Data
Explorer
4

5. THE INTERNATIONAL FUTURES SYSTEM
DESIGN ELEMENTS
• 186 countries
• Integrated multi-
issue, long-term
• User interface for
data and scenario
analysis
• Transparent/open,
available at:
5
Basic Features
pardee.du.edu
PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES

6. PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
BLOCK DIAGRAM OF IFS
Demographics
Education Economics Health
Infrastructure Energy
Agriculture EnvironmentTechnology
Governance Government Finance International Politics

7. PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
FORECASTING AND PLANNING WITH IFS
ANALYSIS OF TRENDS: GLOBAL, REGIONAL, NATIONAL, SUBNATIONAL
SETTING GOALS: DATA ANALYSIS AND BENCHMARKING PERFORMANCE
PLANNING: INTERVENTION AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS
ENVISIONING AND IMPROVING THE FUTURE

8. IFs available at pardee.du.edu
Let’s look at it
PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES

9. TREND ANALYSIS: DEMOGRAPHICS AND
EMPOWERMENT
PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
2010 2030

10. TREND ANALYSIS: ECONOMIC GROWTH
PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
5
10
15
20
25
GDP per Capita (PPP) History plus Forecast
Thousand2005Dollars
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Argentina Bolivia Chile Peru

11. TREND ANALYSIS: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.70
0.72
0.74
0.76
0.78
HDI New (2010 Reformulation)
Index
Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Amer-Carib Amer-Central Amer-South

12. TREND ANALYSIS: ENERGY PRODUCTION
PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Latin America: Energy Production by Type
BillionBarrelsOilEquivalent
Year
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Oil Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear OthRenew

13. BENCHMARKING: INFANT MORTALITY
PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Colombia
Cuba
Peru Venezuela
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000
Benchmarking Infant Mortality
InfantMortalityper1000Births
GDPper Capita at Purchasing Power Parity

14. BENCHMARKING: EDUCATION
PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Cuba
Ecuador
Peru
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
Benchmarking Years of FormalEducation
EducationYearsofPopulation,15+YearsOld
GDPper Capita at Purchasing Power Parity

15. SCENARIO ANALYSIS: GREENHOUSE GASES
PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
400
450
500
550
600
Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere, Parts per Million
PartsperMillion
Year
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
Markets First Policy FIrst Security First Sustainability First

16. SCENARIO ANALYSIS: PERU’S ECONOMIC GROWTH
PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Peruvian Scenarios: GDP per Capita at PPP
Thousand2005Dollars
Year
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Base Case Combined Interventions
Combined Interventions: 10% higher workforce participation;
20% higher export value; 30% higher FDI inflows

17. PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
RECAP: FORECASTING AND PLANNING WITH IFS
ANALYSIS OF TRENDS: GLOBAL, REGIONAL, NATIONAL, SUBNATIONAL
SETTING GOALS: DATA ANALYSIS AND BENCHMARKING PERFORMANCE
PLANNING: INTERVENTION AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS
ENVISIONING AND IMPROVING THE FUTURE
Learn more and try basic system: Pardee.du.edu

18. Marzo, 2014
Barry B. Hughes
Gracias
Frederick S. Pardee Center
University of Denver