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Prospectiva de Largo Plazo con el Modelo IFs - Barry hughes
The document outlines the work of the Pardee Center for International Futures, focusing on long-term scenario development and forecasting for countries in Peru and Latin America. Barry Hughes discusses the International Futures (IFS) system, which analyzes various trends in demographics, economics, education, and health to improve future planning and decision-making. The IFS has been utilized by various organizations including the United Nations and the European Union for critical reports and analyses.
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Prospectiva de Largo Plazo con el Modelo IFs - Barry hughes
- 1. Laimportanciadelaperspectivadel futuroparaelPerúyLatinoamérica Foro Internacional: Barry Hughes Directordel Pardee Center for International Futures, Universidad de Denver Autor del modelo prospectivo IFs, además de asesor del National Intelligence Council de USA
- 2. LONG-TERM FORECASTING WITH INTERNATIONALFUTURES (IFS) March 28, 2014 Lima, Peru Barry B. Hughes Frederick S. Pardee Center University of Denver
- 3. THE PARDEE CENTERAND THE INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS) SYSTEM • Frederick S. Pardee Center at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver • IFs developed over a 35+ year period • Focus is on long-term, integrated scenario development • Have produced Patterns of Potential Human Progress series: Poverty, Education, Health, Infrastructure, and Governance 3
- 4. INTERNATIONAL FUTURES (IFS)USERS • United Nations Environment Programme: Global Environment Outlook 4 • United Nations Human Development Reports: HDRs 2012 and 2013 • European Union Commission: New Economy and Renewable Energy Projects • United States National Intelligence Council Reports to the President: Global Trends 2020, 2025, 2030 • Others include: World Bank, Peru CEPLAN, Western Cape Provincial Government, New Partnership for African Development, Population Services International, United States Institute of Peace, Google Public Data Explorer 4
- 5. THE INTERNATIONAL FUTURESSYSTEM DESIGN ELEMENTS • 186 countries • Integrated multi- issue, long-term • User interface for data and scenario analysis • Transparent/open, available at: 5 Basic Features pardee.du.edu PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
- 6. PARDEE CENTER FORINTERNATIONAL FUTURES BLOCK DIAGRAM OF IFS Demographics Education Economics Health Infrastructure Energy Agriculture EnvironmentTechnology Governance Government Finance International Politics
- 7. PARDEE CENTER FORINTERNATIONAL FUTURES FORECASTING AND PLANNING WITH IFS ANALYSIS OF TRENDS: GLOBAL, REGIONAL, NATIONAL, SUBNATIONAL SETTING GOALS: DATA ANALYSIS AND BENCHMARKING PERFORMANCE PLANNING: INTERVENTION AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS ENVISIONING AND IMPROVING THE FUTURE
- 8. IFs available atpardee.du.edu Let’s look at it PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES
- 9. TREND ANALYSIS: DEMOGRAPHICSAND EMPOWERMENT PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES 2010 2030
- 10. TREND ANALYSIS: ECONOMICGROWTH PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES 5 10 15 20 25 GDP per Capita (PPP) History plus Forecast Thousand2005Dollars Year 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Argentina Bolivia Chile Peru
- 11. TREND ANALYSIS: HUMANDEVELOPMENT PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 HDI New (2010 Reformulation) Index Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Amer-Carib Amer-Central Amer-South
- 12. TREND ANALYSIS: ENERGYPRODUCTION PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Latin America: Energy Production by Type BillionBarrelsOilEquivalent Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Oil Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear OthRenew
- 13. BENCHMARKING: INFANT MORTALITY PARDEECENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES Argentina Bolivia Brazil Colombia Cuba Peru Venezuela 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 Benchmarking Infant Mortality InfantMortalityper1000Births GDPper Capita at Purchasing Power Parity
- 14. BENCHMARKING: EDUCATION PARDEE CENTERFOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Cuba Ecuador Peru 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 Benchmarking Years of FormalEducation EducationYearsofPopulation,15+YearsOld GDPper Capita at Purchasing Power Parity
- 15. SCENARIO ANALYSIS: GREENHOUSEGASES PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES 400 450 500 550 600 Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere, Parts per Million PartsperMillion Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Markets First Policy FIrst Security First Sustainability First
- 16. SCENARIO ANALYSIS: PERU’SECONOMIC GROWTH PARDEE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL FUTURES 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Peruvian Scenarios: GDP per Capita at PPP Thousand2005Dollars Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Base Case Combined Interventions Combined Interventions: 10% higher workforce participation; 20% higher export value; 30% higher FDI inflows
- 17. PARDEE CENTER FORINTERNATIONAL FUTURES RECAP: FORECASTING AND PLANNING WITH IFS ANALYSIS OF TRENDS: GLOBAL, REGIONAL, NATIONAL, SUBNATIONAL SETTING GOALS: DATA ANALYSIS AND BENCHMARKING PERFORMANCE PLANNING: INTERVENTION AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS ENVISIONING AND IMPROVING THE FUTURE Learn more and try basic system: Pardee.du.edu
- 18. Marzo, 2014 Barry B.Hughes Gracias Frederick S. Pardee Center University of Denver