29.0 icimod june 2017

1. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Closing Knowledge Gaps to scale
adaptation: Knowledge resources
for NAPs support
LEG Regional Training Workshop
Manila, Phillipines
13th – 17th June, 2017
Dhrupad Choudhury
Programme Manager
Regional Programme on Adaptation to Change

2. Extends over 3,500 km from Afghanistan to
Myanmar and home to 210 million people
The Hindu Kush Himalayan Region
The Inter-Governmental Institution:
serving the eight countries of the Region
A regional mountain
knowledge, learning and
enabling centre devoted to
sustainable mountain
development for mountains
and people
Afghanistan, Bangladesh,
Bhutan, China, India,
Myanmar, Nepal, and
Pakistan

3. • Largest reserve of snow
and ice outside the polar
regions
• 54,000 glaciers; 60,000
km2 area; 6,000 km3 ice
volume (ICIMOD, 2011)
• ~760,000 km2 snow cover
• 10 river basins; 6
transboundary
• provides services to 1.3
billion people
– Water
– Food
– Energy
– Biodiversity
Hindu Kush Himalayan region: The
Third Pole; Asia’s “Water tower”

4. Analysis based on CMA GLASAT dataset (Xu et al., 2014)
Changes in temperature extremes

5. Liu and Chen, 2000
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
y = -161.57 + 0.081443x R= 0.59188
=8.09
=0.33
TemperatureAnomaly(
o
C)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
y = -134.43 + 0.068 x R= 0.49862
=20.22
=0.31
TemperatureAnomaly(
o
C)
Year
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
y = -184.44 + 0.093 x R= 0.65632
=-3.09
=0.39
TemperatureAnomaly(
o
C)
a.
b.
c.
d.
Shrestha et al. 2009
Tibetan Plateau
HKH (CRU)
Elevation dependent warming

6. Analysis based on CMA GLASAT dataset (Xu et al., 2014)
PAA WDA DPIA • Light=<50p
• Moderate=50-
90p
• Intense=>90p
Changes in precipitation extremes

8. Glacier dynamics
HKH and Indus
Scherler et al., 2011; Nature Geoscience

9. Glacier change projection
• Area change -20 to -
55%
• Indus: -20 to -30%

10. Glacial hazards:
glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF)

11. 1. The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) have seen significant warming in past
decades, slightly higher than, or nearly equal to, the global average—a trend
that will likely continue. Even if global warming is kept to 1.5oC (1.5oC),
warming in the HKH will likely be at least 0.3oC higher, and in some parts at
least 0.7oC higher. Such large warming could trigger a multitude of
biophysical and socio-economic impacts.
2. For the past 5–6 decades, the HKH have shown a rising trend of extreme
warm events; a falling trend of extreme cold events; and a rising trend in
extreme values and frequencies of temperature based indices (both
minimum and maximum). These changes are likely to continue.
3. The HKH is experiencing increasing variability in western disturbances and
a higher probability of snowfall in the Karakoram and western Himalaya,
changes that will likely contribute to increases in glacier mass in those
areas.
4. Consensus among models for the HKH is weak—a result of the region’s
complex topography and the coarse resolution of global climate models. To
improve evidence-based adaptation planning, better climate models and
Key Messages

12. Bridging the Knowledge Gap –
across scales
• Down scaled scenarios
• Water availability
• Ecosystem services
assessments
• Vulnerability assessments
Knowledge generation, pilots
& adaptation action:
multi-stakeholders
partnerships at different levels,

13. Climate induced hazards: One-third
of disasters are floods
(Source: EM-DAT – The OFDA/CRED
International Disaster Database)
Transboundary floods - shared vulnerability
across national borders

14. Impact of Climate Change -
Water Induced Disasters -
Downstream
Assam, North
East India –
flood impact
(sand casting)

15. HKH-HYCOS: Setting up monitoring
stations and establishment of real-time
flood information systems
‘Making Information Travel Faster Than Flood Waters’
Establishment of a Regional
Flood Information System in the
HKH-Region - Timely exchange
of flood data and information
through an accessible and user
friendly platform
HYCOS is a vehicle for technology
transfer, training, and capacity building

16. Regional flood outlook
Developed a flood
outlook system for
the Ganges-
Brahmaputra basin
utilizing freely
available data and
weather forecasts
Mathematical
model describing
the precipitation-
runoff process in
the catchments
and hydrodynamic
flood routing along
the river system.

17. Dissemination of information:
Web-based charts and tables

18. Impacts of flood:
Communities are the first responders
of any disasters
Pakistan Flood 2010
Afghanistan Flood, 2013
Koshi,Nepal Flood, 2008
Bangladesh Flood, 2014
Uttarakhand, India Flood, 2013

19. Community Based Monitoring and
Early Warning

20. Nepal
Ratu Khola,
Koshi
Afghanistan
Baghlan and
Badagshan
(potential)
CBFEWS in HKH
India
Jiadhal and
Singora rivers,
Assam
Pakistan
Indus basin

21. Ecosystem Services:
Methodology for Vulnerability
assessment
• Vunerability assessments: Socio-
economic; do not cover
ecosystem services
• HKH population highly dependent
on ecosystem services
• Vulnerability assessments, must
factor in vulnerability of
ecosystem services
• Methodology applied for Nepal’s
NAPs preparations
Predicted changes in net primary
productivity in Koshi Basin, Nepal
Predicted changes in leaf area
index in Koshi Basin, Nepal

22. Enhancing capacity of partners:
Downscaling for effective LAPAs
• LAPAs: Adaptation
Plans for Action at
district/ VDC levels
• Adaptation for
Smallholder farmers
in Hilly Areas of
Nepal (ASHA) – 6
districts; sub
watershed
• Vulnerability
assessment of
ecosystems

23. Adaptation Practice – Lessons in
resilience building: Learning through
pilots
• Community-led Veterinary
health services (Garo Hills)
• Institutional mechanisms
for Flood response
(CBFEWS, Remittance &
Flood preparedness)
• Tourism Destination
Management Plans (Inlay,
Myanmar)
• Agricultural Extension
services (RCT: Nepal)
• Resilient Mountain
Villages

24. Gender must be central to
adaptation action……

25. Support for NAPs……
• Knowledge
products/
methodologies/
tools already
available
• Learnings from
Pilots – adaptation
solutions
• Capacity building
(www.icimod.org)

26. Thank you