2018 ta strategy

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
STRATEGY REPORT 2018
Shahd Raa’fat, CMT
Senior Technical Analyst
Shahd.Raafat@MubasherFS.com
Thursday, 18 January 2018
c

IT IS ALMOST A TRENDLESS YEAR
Can this be a ‘Rising Wedge’?
Long periods of sideways allow the indicators to loosen up.
The heavyweight became a heavy load.
EGX 70 BEATS EGX 30
Rise of the Phoenix
2017 in Review: Key Events
THE UPTREND NEEDS FUEL
Is the index strong enough to carry on?
2018 ANALYST FAVORTIES
BANKS
REAL ESTATE
TRAVEL & LEISURE
INDUSTRIAL GOODS AND SERVICES AND AUTOMOBILES
FOOD & BEVERAGE
FINANCIAL SERVICES
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS STRATEGY REPORT 2018
1
TABLE OF CONTENTS

3
• Selling pressures appeared more often in
the previous year, creating close
resistances in a very small range.
• This raised concerns of forming a ‘Rising
Wedge’.
• Let’s highlight some facts about ‘Rising
Wedges’. They are more likely to be the
last impulsive wave (wave five) and
followed by a severe correction running
counter to the dominant trend, which
might have been the case! But if this is a
“Rising Wedge” (wave five), where is
wave four?
• For those who are not familiar with Elliot
waves, it is hard to count the waves.
Based on possibilities, there is one solid
ground everyone can agree upon and
easy to spot; it is wave three.
• Wave three is hard to miss and is usually
combined with some signs. It is known
for being powerful with good breadth,
occurring after reforms, improving
fundamentals, and it is never the
shortest wave. (Please review the
investors psychology section in our
strategy of 2017.)
• Then the corrective wave four appears,
which is known for being dull and
disappointing because it was preceded
by a big move, where everyone was
making a lot of money.
• There is one crystal clear fact about wave
four which is that it is accompanied by
dry volumes. Undoubtedly, volumes in
2017 were too weak compared to 2016.
• The previous analysis is why we think
there must be another rally in the
market.
“Rising
Wedges
usually
come at
the end of
a trend.”
Can this be a
‘Rising Wedge’?
Source : Eikon Reuters
IT IS ALMOST A
TRENDLESS YEAR

•IT IS ALMOST A
•TRENDLESS YEAR
4
“Too much
time for a
correction
wave.”
• By taking a close look at the
monthly chart, we will find that
EGX 30 has reached the resistance
range 13,000-14,000 before it got
stuck for eight months in a
sideways correction.
• “A correction of a flat range,
lower limit 11,000 and upper limit
13,000 (give or take 5%) followed
by a rise towards 17,000.” These
were our exact words and the
highest probable odd for the year
2017. It was mainly because the
level 13,000 represented a 161%
Fibonacci retracement level /
target.
• Nonetheless, we did not expect
that the sideways move will take
as much time as the impulsive
wave itself.
• The long period of sideways
raised questions about the
continuity of the upward trend
and gave many indicators an
excuse to loosen up after a tense
rally.
• All of the commonly-used
oscillators have reached
overbought zones but none of
them left these zones; this is
considered an assuring signal for
now. Also, an important indicator
like MACD is still in a ‘Buy’ mode
and above the zero line.
• If we talk about sentiment, we
will see simply that the market
players are not as enthusiastic as
they were before. However, they
are not scared of the trend
reversal either, which has been
very obvious on the volumes
during the downswings.
Long periods of sideways
allow the indicators to
loosen up.
IT IS ALMOST A
TRENDLESS YEAR
(Cont.'d)

5
“How
would
the index
make it
without
40% of
its
weight!”
The heavyweight became
a heavy load.
• Commercial International Bank “CIB”
(COMI.EGX), whether we like it or not, controls
the benchmark index EGX 30; it has almost 40%
of the weight. So, we cannot discuss the
healthiness of a car without checking its engine
first.
• During the past couple of years, COMI was the
forerunner until mid-2017. The stock made a
significant high at 88.00 then declined almost
25% to reach 72.00 before it rebounded one
more time to hover around the minor
resistance level 80.00.
• We can see clearly that COMI is no longer an
index outperformer as displayed on the Relative
Strength Comparative to EGX30 (the bottom
panel) which started to head south recently.
• The point is that COMI started the uptrend first
then the rest of the stocks moved. Market
participants started to look for high earnings
growth and undervalued stocks which
outshined the stock a little bit despite its
uptrend.
• While COMI was declining, the index did not
follow it down. The other index constitutes’
good performances were capable of keeping
the index from declining.
• Nevertheless, market participants could not
turn a blind eye to the fact that the leading
stock is no longer leading the march. Not only
that but to make matters even worse, COMI
started a downtrend on the daily chart for the
first time since 2015.
• On one hand, we believe COMI is facing a key
resistance zone at the levels 80.00-82.00.
Breaking above it should push the price towards
88.00 again.
• On the other hand, if COMI did not break the
resistance zone 80.00-82.00, this will increase
the possibility of forming a ‘Head and
Shoulders’ pattern which can push the price
down towards 71.00 then 65.00.
IT IS ALMOST A
TRENDLESS YEAR
IT IS ALMOST A
TRENDLESS YEAR
(Cont.'d)

6
Rise of the Phoenix
“2017 was
a good year
for EGX 70
and 2018
can be even
better.”
• Last year, we believed that 2017 was
going to be a good year for the small
caps index, and indeed EGX 70 did not
only fulfill our target (650), but it almost
doubled!
• Of course, the price-weighted index is
also dominated by high-priced stocks,
like Egypt Gas (EGAS.EGX) and Egypt
Aluminum (EGAL.EGX), but the overall
performance of the rest of the stocks
was good too.
• EGX 70 finally managed to break above
the downtrend that lasted for almost a
decade. Moreover, it has been
outperforming EGX 30 for the entire
year, and it seems like this is going to be
the case for quite a while.
• By taking a look at the Relative Strength
Comparative to EGX 30 (the bottom
panel), we see that the indicator has
formed a solid support and started
heading north.
• This does not necessarily mean that
small caps will just continue rising, but it
certainly means that EGX 70 will decline
less and increase more than EGX 30 (if
the indicator kept moving up).
• Also, breaking above a major downtrend
is a healthy sign and most probably will
be followed by a series of higher highs
and higher lows.
• We keep in mind that the levels 900 and
1,200 are considered vital resistances
and the index will not be able to violate
them easily. On the other hand, breaking
back below the key support 670 will be
an alarming sign.
• Holders of high-priced stocks can hold on
to positions as long as the prices do not
decline below their key support levels.
Meanwhile, low-priced stocks and so-
called “penny” stocks should be analyzed
in isolation of the index due to their light
weights.
EGX 70
BEATS
EGX 30

7

8
Is the index strong
enough to carry on?
THE UPTREND
NEEDS FUEL
“Our target
is 17,000 -
17,500 and
our trailing
stop loss is
12,500.”
• Downtrend starts usually with one of
two things: a crisis or when no reason
pushes the prices higher anymore.
Because the second reason is difficult to
agree on, it usually takes time and
comes with dry volumes. Then the panic
starts until prices decline so low.
• Uptrend starts after periods of
desperation when everyone has lost
hope in the market, negative reasons
diminish or disappear and when the
bears become tired of being bearish.
Then accumulation starts when the risk
is low and securities are oversold and—
maybe—undervalued.
• By looking at the benchmark index EGX
30, since the Global Financial Crisis
(GFC) in 2008, the only reason that was
capable of pushing it so high in a short
period of time was the bold and
aggressive reforms that were taken by
the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) end of
2016.
• The reforms were one step in the right
direction. Gradual diminishing of the
precautionary measures was another
step in the same right direction. But the
trend needs fuel to proceed. We had
what it takes to start a new uptrend, but
we need good reasons to resume.
• Last year, the corruption crackdown in
Saudi Arabia and the Qatar-Gulf crisis
caused us a couple of setbacks.
• Between the IMF loan and meeting
their requirements besides a couple of
successful IPOs, nothing was so
impressive to start a real steep uptrend.
• On the other hand, nothing was too bad
to melt down. This is a very solid ground
to build up on a sort of optimistic yet
conservative strategy. As long as there is
no crisis and no key support violations
occur, the uptrend can actually resume
at a slower pace—at least in the short
and medium terms. Even a downward
correction towards 14,000 does not
change this scenario.
Short Selling
“We will get
used to it.”
• Talks about short selling have been
there for quite a long time now. “If
it is going to be applied in 2018
after a period of rising, this might
actually threat the continuity of the
uptrend.” This is a claim we do not
agree with.
• Even if short selling is applied at
this stage, market participants will
eventually get used to it. Even
better, it will help increase
efficiency of this emerging market
after all, with news and results of
the listed companies truly
influencing market prices.
• Moreover, it will be a good trading
tool for foreign investors who
already see and use it in many
developed markets to see it in the
Egyptian market too.
• There is one thing we are sure of: If
the leverage/margin could not
make an uptrend, then there is no
way that short selling will end one.
• This is simply because every seller
is selling to some buyer and both of
them think that they are doing the
right thing.

• With everything being up in the sky or on fire,
market players started to look for stocks that
have not moved yet or so-called undervalued
stocks, which is the right thing to do.
• The previous year was a lock-up for more
securities than cash. Many investors would be
asking themselves if they are holding the right
security or if they were missing some better
opportunity.
• Let’s set some simple rules that you can
follow to make sure you are not on the losing
side.
• First, if your stock is making a profit and in an
uptrend, there is no need to sell as long as it
does not violate a key support. On the other
hand, do not overweight without a good
reason.
• Second, if your stock is in accumulation for so
long and did not catch up with the market yet,
in different circumstances we would have
recommended exiting the positions and not
wasting your time. But not this year! We
believe that stocks that have been
accumulating for so long have a good chance
this year to finally pay off.
• Third, if you have had a losing position for a
while, there is no point in holding on to it. We
can always stop our loss and get back in the
stock at better price levels with less risk.
Otherwise, you would be missing a better
opportunity and taking a higher risk.
• We believe that the market will have one last
rally before it starts a decent correction. Make
sure your stock is ready to outperform the
index for higher profits.
• Generally, we are bullish on theses sectors:
Travel & Leisure, Healthcare &
Pharmaceuticals, Financial Services, and Food
& Beverage.
• We are conservative on these sectors:
Telecommunications, Real Estate, and
Industrial Goods & Services & Automobiles.
9
2018
ANALYST
FAVORTIES
“One last
rally … get
ready
and wait
for it!”
Sectors
Performance
in 2017
You have to be selective.
116.1%
84.0%
79.2%
78.6%
76.8%
67.6%
62.2%
43.0%
30.7%
21.7%
16.5%
10.8%
9.1%
3.2%
Personal & Household Products
Chemicals
Travel & Leisure
EGX 70
Health Care & Pharmaceuticals
Industrial Goods & Services
Food & Beverages
Basic Resources
Construction & Materials
EGX 30
Real Estate
Banks
Financial Services
Telecommunications

-6%
5%
23%
62%
75%
127%
204%
EGBE
COMI
FAIT
SAUD
UNBE
ADIB
CANA
2017 GAINERS AND LOSERS
Egyptian Gulf Bank “EGB” (EGBE.EGX) finally managed to
break a downtrend that lasted for a couple of months.
This violation was followed by a healthy retest to the
broken downtrend. Currently, the stock is facing a key
resistance at the level 0.93. By violating this level further,
a rise towards 1.10-1.15 is likely. Recently, the stock has
formed an “Inverted Head & Shoulders” pattern which
makes the resistance 0.93 a neckline as well.
Sector: Banks
Advice: Buy after a valid breakout to the level 0.93
Targets: 1.10, 1.15, 1.25
Stop Loss Level: 0.85
The strong moves are already
behind us.
• We discussed our view on COMI previously,
but generally we believe that the banking
sector was very successful the last couple of
years. This year, it might stay on the “good
sectors” list but just not as profitable as
before.
• Abu Dhabi Islamic bank (ADIB.EGX) rose
sharply in 2017, and it is currently facing a
solid resistance at the level 17.50. Only a
valid breakout or a strong downward
correction might bring new cash and push
the stock towards 19.00.
• Suez Canal Bank (CANA.EGX) was the
winner last year, and there is a good chance
the stock may rebound to test its key
resistance 19.00. That said, our conservative
look will not change until it breaks that level.
• Union National Bank – Egypt (UNBE.EGX)
has been trying to stay above the resistance
level 8.00 for almost five months now, but
the seller kept smashing hopes. That said,
holders of the stock have no reason to quit
their positions as long as the stock holds
above the levels 7.00-6.50.
• Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt (FAIT.EGX) is
moving in a sideways range, and it might
witness a rebound soon towards the upper
boundary of this range at the level 20.00.
• Al Baraka Bank – Egypt (SAUD.EGX) is near
to its all-time high at the level 15.50. If it
could manage to break above that level, a
further rise towards 21.00 is likely.
11

13
3%
7%
14%
22%
26%
27%
27%
42%
179%
MNHD
TMGH
AMER
EMFD
PHDC
OCDI
PORT
HELI
ELSH
• Taalat Moustafa Group “TMG” Holding (TMGH.EGX) is
one of the promising stocks in 2018 that we believe will
have a big role in pushing EGX 30 towards the next
targets 17,000-17,500. Moreover, it will probably
perform better than the benchmark index as its Relative
Strength compared to the index is at its lowest levels and
will probably rebound. We recommend buying after the
stock violates the resistance 10.50. Meanwhile, holders
of the stock can keep their positions as long as it holds
above 9.00.
Sector: Real Estate
Advice: Buy after breaking the level 10.50.
Targets: 12.00, 15.00
A waverer year for real estate, but
we can still build some hopes.
• Heliopolis Housing & Development
(HELI.EGX) has been one of the leading
stocks in the sector for a couple of years. It
might get hindered a little at the level 38.00
before breaking above it. This should push
the stock higher towards 45.00. If the stock
cannot break 38.00, we recommend partial
profit taking.
• We still believe Six of October Development
& Investment “SODIC” (OCDI.EGX) is capable
of reaching 25.00-26.00 this year if it
manages to sustain above the level 19.00.
• Madinet Nasr Housing & Development
(MNHD.EGX) has been in a corrective wave
for a couple of months, and we believe that
this year will be a good Year for MNHD as
odds favor continuation towards 12.00 then
14.00.
• Palm Hills Developments “PHD” (PHDC.EGX)
is struggling to sustain above the key
resistance level 4.00. Eventually, the stock
should be able to break it and reach 5.00.
• For Emaar Misr for Development
(EMFD.EGX), the level 4.00 is a big obstacle.
Violating this level should push the stock
towards 4.50 then 5.00.
• Amer Group (AMER.EGX) declined to test a
key support at 0.25, and it worked perfectly.
The stock rebounded off that level and has a
great chance to reach the resistance 0.40
then 0.45.

14
• Porto Group (PORT.EGX) is yet another stock (along with
Amer Group) that is affected by the relatively low-priced
category. No one wants to stay in line for days to execute.
However, every time the stock tries to increase, the volumes
were fully supporting. We believe that this year the stock will
have a good chance and might approach the levels 0.50 and
0.55. The Stochastic reading supports this scenario as well.
Sector: Real Estate
Advice: Buy and hold
Targets: 0.50,0.55
Stop loss level: 0.32
Sector: Real Estate
Targets: 0.50, 0.55
• Al Shams Housing & Urbanization (ELSH.EGX) achieved
the highest gains in the sector. We cannot see when this
major uptrend will end, but we can see that the current
level might bring profit-taking thoughts to investors’ minds,
especially after the stock lost its momentum. We expect
the stock is ready for a sideways correction to catch its
breath before getting back on track one more time for the
targets 11.50-12.00. Keep in mind that breaking below 7.00
is our stop loss level.
Sector: Real Estate
Advice: Partial profit taking then buy dips.
Targets: 11.50-12.00
3%
7%
14%
22%
26%
27%
27%
42%
179%
MNHD
TMGH
AMER
EMFD
PHDC
OCDI
PORT
HELI
ELSH
A waverer year for real estate, but
we can still build some hopes.

16
5%
14%
36%
59%
92%
277%
GOCO
ELWA
EGTS
SDTI
RTVC
ORHD
• Years of accumulation always pay off, and Egyptian
Resorts Company “ERC” (EGTS.EGX) has been
accumulating for a decade. The volumes have always
supported the upwards swings. MACD is in a ‘Buy’ mode
now. We strongly favor the odd of this being the long-
waited bottom for the stock. Upwards violation will bring
new blood to the stock to help in its fast acceleration.
Sector: Travel and Leisure
Advice: Buy and Add to the position above 10.50
Targets: 10.50, 12.00
Catch the plane before the
take-off.
• We would not call El-Wadi for Touristic Investments
(ELWA.EGX) structure an “Ascending Triangle” because it is
taking too much time. But what we all can agree on is that the
bulls are getting serious as time passes. By looking at the
volumes, we can notice that they have been heavier lately
which increases the probability of that being a bottom. +DI is
crossing above –DI, which means that bulls are taking over.
We would recommend partial buying now and adding to the
position when the price makes it above 10.50.
Sector: Travel and Leisure
Targets: 2.00, 2.10, 2.90

INDUSTRIAL GOODS
AND SERVICES AND
AUTOMOBILES

18
• GB Auto (AUTO.EGX) has been moving in a down trend
since its listing, and it finally managed to break it late 2017.
We still maintain our position that started in August 2017 as
we believe that the stock will perform better than both EGX
30 and EGX 70 in 2018. MACD “Buy” signal is still intact, and
it is currently hovering above the zero line. Those who are in
cash are advised to buy after confirming breaking above the
downtrend line at the level 4.80. Our short-, medium-, and
long-term targets are 6.00,7.00 and 8.50, respectively. We
think that a retest of the broken down trend is a buying
opportunity and a break back below the down trend calls
for a stop loss.
Sector: Industrial Goods & Services & Automobiles
Advice: Buy after confirming the violation of 4.80.
Targets: 6.00 and 8.50.
Stop Loss Level: 4.00.
Don’t buy until the bulls beat
the bears. The whole sector is
facing key resistances.
• Egyptian Transport & Commercial Services
“Egytrans” (ETRS.EGX) performed very well
last year, and it is facing key resistance at the
level 15.50. We do not recommend buying
until the stock breaks this resistance. In case
it does, a further rise towards 18.00 will be
expected.
• Elsewedy Electric (SWDY.EGX) has been one
of the distinctive stocks in 2017. We believe
the stock will reach the levels 170-180 after
a short correction towards the level 120.
• Canal Shipping Agencies (CSAG.EGX) was
one of our stock calls in 2017, and we still
think the stock has a lot to offer. Violating
the resistance 14.00-15.00 will pave the way
for a further rise towards 20.00. Do not buy
until it violates the resistance.
• United Arab Shipping (UASG.EGX) is similar
to CSAG; it is facing a key resistance at 1.80.
If it manages to break it, the stock has a
good chance to reach 2.50.
• Electro Cable – Egypt (ELEC.EGX) is in an
accumulation phase, and we have every
reason to believe it will end soon. We
recommend buying above the resistance
1.00 for targets 1.40-1.60.
• The year 2017 was a breath-catching year for
Alexandria Containers & Cargo Handling
(ALCN.EGX). The stock is moving in a
sideways range between 150 and 190.
Penetrating this rectangle should push the
stock towards 230.
-10%
6%
43%
56%
73%
115%
180%
ALCN
ELEC
GB AUTO
UASG
CSAG
SWDY
ETRS

20
• El-Nasr for Manufacturing Agricultural
Corps (ELNA.EGX) has formed a solid
support and is going through a medium-
term accumulation phase. It is also moving
below the down trend line. We believe that
the stock is capable of breaking above the
resistance level 11.00 and violating the
down trend. Reaching the resistance at the
level 11.00 is somewhat imminent but
breaking it should start a brand new up
trend.
Sector: Food and Beverage
Advice: Buy and add to the position after breaking the level 11.00
Targets: 11.00, 13.50 and 17.50.
A very successful year and 2018
should be too …
• Middle Egypt Flour Mills (CEFM.EGX) rose
sharply, and we believe the stock has to
slow down a little bit towards 35.00-33.00,
at least to attract the bulls again.
• Cairo Poultry (POUL.EGX) can continue
rising towards 10.00 before experiencing a
decent correction.
• Extracted Oils (ZEOT.EGX) was one of our
stock calls in 2017, and we still think the
stock has a lot to offer. Violating the
resistance 2.10 should pave the way for a
further rise towards 2.85-3.00.
• Juhayna Food Industries (JUFO.EGX) cut its
2015 and 2016 losses and we believe the
stock can break the resistance 12.00 and
resume rising towards 14.00-15.00.
• Arabian Food Industries “Domty”
(DOMT.EGX) is testing a key support level
on the weekly chart and an uptrend line
started in 2016. In case it could not sustain
above it, we recommend taking profit.
• Ajwa Group for Food Industries
(AJWA.EGX) rebounded off a good support
level and has a good chance to rise towards
3.40 then 4.00.
0%
46%
51%
98%
124%
134%
150%
AJWA
DOMT
JUFO
NASR
ZEOT
POUL
CEFM

22
• Beltone Financial Holding (BTFH.EGX)
has formed a “Symmetrical Triangle”
recently, and the bulls managed to
violate the resistance line of this
triangle. The stock will probably
continue rising towards the next
resistance at the level 15.00 then
decline for a while before it rises again
to reach the target of this pattern: the
levels 17.00-17.50. RSI readings are in
advance and support the previous
scenario.
Sector: Financial services
Advice: Buy dips and add to position after a valid breakout to 15.00.
Targets: 15.00,17.50.
• Relative to its peers, Al Ahly for Development
& Investment (AFDI.EGX) performed very
well last year. However, we are not very
bullish on the stock as it is facing some selling
pressure at the levels 14.00-14.50.
• Orascom Construction Limited (ORAS.EGX)
has been in a sideways wave lately, which it is
capable of violating to continue rising towards
160.00-170.00.
• In 2016, we had said that Qalaa Holdings
(CCAP.EGX) is bottoming and heading to 1.50
then 1.70. We still maintaining our bullish
view as long as it holds above 1.24.
• EFG Hermes Holding (HRHO.EGX) did not
have a good year in 2017. We believe the
stock will keep moving sideways between
20.00 and 25.00 for a while
• Arabia Investments, Development, &
Financial Investment Holding (AIND.EGX) was
one of our stock calls in 2017. We expect the
stock to reach 1.20 then 1.50. It reached our
first target then bad news was released. We
believe that this decline was an overreaction,
and we expect the current rebound to resume
towards the levels 0.90 then 1.00.
• We believe that dollar-denominated stocks
can witness a good performance this year.
Naeem Holding (NAHO.EGX), in specific,
found a good support and our targets are 0.50
then 0.55. We recommend “Buy and Hold”.
-36%
-27%
-7%
14%
25%
33%
55%
NAHO
AIND
HRHO
BTFH
CCAP
ORAS
AFDI
A dull performance

23
Performance of our technical calls in 2017
Ticker Company name Sector Advice Date Targets
First
target
hit?
Second
target
hit?
Highest
return since
call
Date
TMGH Taalat Mostafa Holding Real Estate Buy 30-Mar-17 10.00, 11.50 Yes Not yet 12.75% 30-Mar-17
CASG Canal Shipping
Industrial Goods &
Services
Buy dips 4-Apr-17 10.00, 14.00 Yes Yes 102.00% 22-Oct-17
ETRS Egytrans
Industrial Goods &
Services
Buy 4-Apr-17 6.50-7.00 Yes Yes 181.00% 18-Oct-17
EFIC
Egyptian Financial
& Industrial Co. (EFIC)
Chemicals Buy 21-May-17 19.00, 25.00 Yes Not yet 28.61% 10-Oct-17
COMI
Commercial International
Bank (CIB)
Banks Buy 28-May-17 82.20-100 Yes No 9.88% 17-Jul-17
AMER Amer Group Real Estate Buy 5-Jun-17
0.38-0.45-
0.55
Yes Not yet 33.33% 1-Oct-17
OCDI
Six of October Development
& Investment Co. (SODIC)
Real Estate Buy 20-Jun-17 15.50 Yes - 50.00% 13-Dec-17
MNHD
Madinet Nasr Housing
& Development
Real Estate Sell 9-Jul-17 9.00 Almost - 16.81% 27-Aug-17
ETEL Telecom Egypt Telecommunications Buy 16-Aug-17 13.00, 16.00 Yes Not yet 20.00% 8-Oct-17
AUTO GB Auto
Industrial Goods &
Services
Buy 23-Aug-17 3.00-3.50 Yes Yes 143.00% 11-Jan-18
EMFD Emaar Misr Real Estate Accumlate 7-Sep-17 3.00-3.30 Yes Yes 40.55% 31-Oct-17
ECAP Ezz Ceramics
Construction &
Materials
Buy 7-Sep-17 7.50-8.50 Yes No 16.60% 11-Oct-17
ZEOT Extracted Oils Food & Beverage Buy 7-Sep-17 1.25, 1.30 yes yes 98.00% 11-Jan-18
ETRS Egytrans
Industrial Goods &
Services
Take Profit 7-Sep-17 9.00-8.00 No No N/A -
ACGC Arab Cotton Ginning
Personal & Household
Products
Sell rallies 7-Sep-17 4.20 No - N/A -
HELI
Heliopolis Housing
& Development
Real Estate
Sell rallies
then buy dips
7-Sep-17 - - - N/A -
EFIC
Egyptian Financial
& Industrial Co. (EFIC)
Chemicals Follow-up call 20-Sep-17 21.00-25.00 Almost Not yet 7.50% 10-Oct-17
EGTS Egyptian Resorts Co. Travel & Leisure Buy 16-Sep-17 1.55, 2.10 Yes Not yet 21.50% 11-Jan-18
ZEOT Extracted Oils Food & Beverage Follow-up call 15-Oct-17 2.00-3.00 Yes Not yet 33.50% 11-Jan-18
AIND Arabia Investments Financial Services Buy 18-Oct-17 1.20, 1.50 yes No 30.00% 7-Nov-17
OCDI
Six of October Development
& Investment Co. (SODIC)
Real Estate Buy 2-Nov-17 25.00, 26.00 Not yet Not yet 10.18% 13-Dec-17
EMFD Emaar Misr Real Estate
Sell rallies
then buy dips
7-Nov-17 3.10-3.00 Almost No 10.60% 19-Nov-17
COMI
Commercial International
Bank (CIB)
Banks Buy dips 19-Nov-17 77.00-78.00 Yes Yes 10.80% 11-Jan-18
AUTO GB Auto
Industrial Goods &
Services
Add to
position
27-Nov-17 4.50-4.70 Yes Yes 46.50% 11-Jan-18

DISCLOSURE
APPENDIX
Methodology
Technical market analysis is, at its essence, a study of crowd behavior and market psychology. We enhance this analysis by studying chart patterns, overlaying a
large suite of technical indicators, volatility and volume data to gauge sentiment and trend strength, looking for divergences and confirmation. It is vitally
important to view indicators in relation to where the market is in its wave cycle.
Our methodology is to focus on stocks that are suitable for active traders, swing traders and proactive investors focusing on these stocks for long positions and,
when appropriate, for shorting. The technical analysis process we use is based on the ‘pure’ price and volume, rule-based analysis of the Elliott Wave Principle
and to overlay a broad suite of technical indicators, positioning and sentiment evidence in order to recommend a trade. The time horizon is normally short- to
medium-term (days, multi-week/month). Translating our analysis into actual trading ideas and positions, our investment process combines a trend following
trading methodology and its discipline with the technical analysis of the Elliott Wave Principle. A potential trade set-up is given by the wave structure and
supporting technical analysis such as Japanese candlesticks, trend extension and exhaustion measures, momentum oscillators and sentiment. However, the trade
is only executed when there is an objective movement of momentum in the direction the technical analysis suggests. The trade entry and trade exit are governed
by the moving averages acting as both a trailing stop loss and take profit discipline. By overlaying a disciplined, proven investment strategy such as Trend
Following on technical analysis we seek to run winning trades and cut losing trades early.
Other Disclosures
MFS does not have any proprietary holding in any securities. Only as a nominee, MFS holds shares on behalf of its clients through Omnibus accounts. MFS is not
currently a market maker for any listed securities.
Analyst Certification
I (we), Shahd Raafat, employed with Mubasher International Securities, a company under the National Technology Group of Saudi Arabia being a shareholder of
Mubasher Financial Services BSC (c) and author(s) of this report, hereby certify that all the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my (our)
views about the subject issuer(s) or security(ies). I (we) also certify that no part of my (our) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the
specific recommendation(s) or view(s) expressed in this report. Also, I (we) certify that neither myself (ourselves) nor any of my (our) close relatives hold or trade
into the subject securities.
Head of Research Certification
I, Amr Hussein Elalfy, Global Head of Research of Mubasher Financial Services BSC (c) confirm that I have vetted the information, and all the views expressed by
the Analyst in this research report about the subject issuer(s) or security(ies). I also certify that the author(s) of this report, has (have) not received any
compensation directly related to the contents of the Report.
Disclaimer
This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Mubasher
Financial Services BSC (c) (‘MFS’) has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently
verified; MFS makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. The opinions contained
within the document are based upon publicly available information at the time of publication and are subject to change without notice. This document is not
intended for all recipients and may not be suitable for all investors. Securities described in this document are not available for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain
category of investors. The document is not substitution for independent judgment by any recipient who should evaluate investment risks. Additionally, investors
must regard this document as providing stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional documents relating to the issuers and/or
securities mentioned herein. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be
subject to change without notice. The value of any investment or income may go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount invested. Where
an investment is denominated in a currency other than the local currency of the recipient of the research report, changes in the exchange rates may have an
adverse effect on the value, price or income of that investment. In case of investments for which there is no recognized market, it may be difficult for investors to
sell their investments or to obtain reliable information about its value or the extent of the risk to which it is exposed. References to ratings/recommendations are
for informational purposes only and do not imply that MFS adopts, supports or confirms in any way the ratings/recommendations, opinions or conclusions of the
analysts. This document is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality,
state, country, or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject MFS or its
affiliates to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. MFS accepts no liability for any direct, indirect, or consequential damages or losses
incurred by third parties including its clients from any use of this document or its contents.
Copyright
Copyright © 2018, Mubasher Financial Services BSC (MFS), ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part or excerpt of this document may be redistributed, reproduced, stored
in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written
permission of MFS. MubasherTrade is a trademark of Mubasher Financial Services BSC. Mubasher Financial Services BSC (c) is an Investment Business Firm
Category 1, licensed and regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain.
Issuer of Report
Mubasher Financial Services BSC (c) is an Investment Business Firm Category 1, licensed and regulated by the Central Bank of Bahrain.
Website: www.MubasherTrade.com
E-mail: Research@MubasherTrade.com
Sales & Research Contact Details
INSTITUTIONAL SALES RETAIL SALES RESEARCH
Egypt Egypt Research Team
Institutions-Egy@Mubasher.net Egypt@MubasherTrade.com Research@MubasherTrade.com
+202 2262 3310 Call Center: 16699 / +202 2262 3230

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