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θAlgae σjMeans SDθFish
Sensitivity differences among
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Log(NOEC)
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Hayashi & Kashiwagi (2009)
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Monte Carlo Analysis
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Calculation of predictive
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Posterior distributions of ECD
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Results: Quantitative Risk Comparison
Median and 90% range of EPAF
log10(EPAF)
Large Risk→←Small Risk
Chemicals
Ammonia
Copper
Nickel
Zinc
Hayashi and Kashiwagi (2011)
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θAlgae σjMeans SDθFish
Sensitivity differences among
taxonomic groups Normal distributions
Log(NOEC)
Parameters were estimated
by MCMC simulations
θInvertebrate
Hayashi & Kashiwagi (2009)
Hayashi & Kashiwagi (2010)
Monte Carlo Analysis
EPAF = F
µECD - µSSD
sECD
2
+ sSSD
2
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µECD µSSDsECD sSSD
Calculation of predictive
distribution of EPAF
Posterior distributions of ECD
parameters
Posterior distributions of SSD
parameters
Results: Quantitative Risk Comparison
Median and 90% range of EPAF
log10(EPAF)
Large Risk→←Small Risk
Chemicals
Ammonia
Copper
Nickel
Zinc
Hayashi and Kashiwagi (2011)
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応用哲学会2018『リスク分析と予防原則』