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![Promo Programs Popular
IN-STORE RETAILER [NET]
64%
ONLINE RETAIL STORE [NET]
53%
83% plan to take part in a promo
program when shopping for tech products](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2016holidayoutlook-160921202644/85/2016-Holiday-Outlook-53-320.jpg)
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2016 Holiday Outlook
The CTA's 23rd annual holiday outlook predicts mixed signals for consumer spending during the 2016 holiday season, with overall retail sales projected to grow by 3.8%. While mobile sales are expected to increase significantly, electronics retailers anticipate a decline of 2.9% in sales. Additionally, consumer sentiment is steadily improving, with 75% of adults planning to buy technology gifts this year.
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2016 Holiday Outlook
- 2. CTA’s 23rd Annual Holiday Outlook Shawn DuBravac,Ph.D., CFA Chief Economist shawnd@CTA.tech @shawndubravac Steve Koenig Sr. Director, Market Research skoenig@CTA.tech @koenigsteve
- 3. Scoring Our 2015Holiday Forecast
- 4. 2015 Holiday ForecastAssessment Series Projected 2015 Holiday Growth Actual 2015 Holiday Growth Overall Retail Sales 3.4% 3.9% GAFO Retail Sales 1.7% 0.7% Electronics Retailers 1.9% -5.4% Online Sales 13.9% 14.8% Mobile Sales 34.7% 50.9% Consumer Spending on Tech 2.3% 1.4%
- 5. Looking Ahead toHoliday 2016
- 6. 2016 Holiday Forecast SeriesProjected 2016 Holiday Growth Overall Retail Sales 3.8% GAFO Retail Sales 0.5% Electronics Retailers -2.9% Online Sales 16.4% Mobile Sales 45.2% Consumer Spending on Tech 3.1%
- 7. CTA Forecast: HolidayTech Spending up 3.1% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Consumer Holiday Spending on Tech Forecast 10-yr Average (4.7%) 20-yr Average (6.7%)
- 8. Key Holiday 2016Themes 1. Sentiment: Mixed Signals 2. Existing Tech Stays Strong 3. Emerging Tech Percolates In Gifting Plans 4. Online (led by mobile) Defines Growth Profile 5. Rapidness of Online (Deals) Creates Isolation
- 9. #1 Sentiment: MixedSignals
- 10. 2010 65% 2011 76% 2012 80% 2013 86% 2014 87% 2015 88% 2016 92% % of consumersplanning to spend money on holiday gifts Holiday Gift Buying Plans 2016 = 227 million U.S. adult gift givers
- 11. Consumer Tech isthe Gift to Give 2012 77% % of gift buyers planning to buy tech as holiday gifts 2010 76% 77% 2011 Q: B21: What % of your holiday gift spending will be on consumer electronics? Base: random national sample of 1,005 U.S. adults 2013 74% 2014 73% 2015 74% 2016 75%
- 12. % of U.S.Adults Buying Technology Gifts
- 13. CTA Sentiment TrackingSteadily Higher 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180 185 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CEA Index of Consumer Expectations (Left) CEA Index of Consumer Technology Expectations (Right) 13
- 14. -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2000 2001 20022003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Revolving Credit (Y/Y % Change) Consumer Credit Growing Again
- 15.
- 16. Shifts in HolidayGift Spending Plans Spend More Spend Same Spend Less
- 17. Allocation of GiftSpending on Tech Base: random national sample of 1,005 U.S. adults 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % of gift spending on CT 28% 29% 32% 32% 30% 33% 32% 32% 30% Amount $222 $222 $245 $251 $258 $248 $286 $287 $241 -16% Spend Less: 30%; $96 Spend More: 16%; $603 2016 Average Tech Gift Spending: Q: B21: What percent of you gift budget will be spent on CE this holiday? 2015: 18%, $326 2015: 28%, $194
- 18. Top 20% Capturedover 80% of Income Growth $(2,000) $- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 Lowest Second Third Fourth Highest 2008-2012 2008-2014 Average annual income changes by income quintile between 2008 and 2014
- 19. Top 20% Accountfor 50% of Spending Increase $(1,000) $- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 Lowest Second Third Fourth Highest 2008-2012 2008-2014 Average annual expenditure changes by income quintile between 2008 and 2014
- 20. 2011 2012 20132014 2015 2016 Don't have the money 71% 62% 66% 53% 44% 60% Increased cost of living 59% 56% 64% 50% 38% 57% Fixed Income 60% 48% 56% 48% 44% 54% Concerns with the economy 77% 66% 68% 46% 36% 46% Have What You Need 55% 57% 67% 47% 38% 45% Earning less money 52% 52% 49% 37% 38% 40% Concerned with the Presidential Election Outcome 38% Lost Job / Unemployed 37% 34% 34% 18% 25% 27% Stock Market / Investment Concerns 42% 22% 26% 20% 17% 18% Lower Spenders: Other Spending Priorities? Reasons to Adjust Holiday Expenditures Much Higher This Year QB18: You indicated you plan to spend less this year than last. Which of the following, if any, are reasons why you plan to spend less on gifts this year? Base: random national sample of 1,005 U.S. adults
- 21. How much consumerswill spend on technology products? More Less Much more The same 11%16%17%56% 61% 20% 8% 13% Strength Meter How strongly respondents felt about their answers % of People Response Mix Likelihood % Probability More Less Much more The same 11%16%17%56% 61% 20% 8% 13% Strength Meter How strongly espondents felt about heir answers % of People Response Mix Likelihood % Probability re Less Much more The same 11%16%17%% % 20% 8% 13% More Less Much mor 16%17%56% 61% 20% 8% Strength Meter How strongly respondents felt about their answers % of People Response Mix Likelihood % Probability More Less Much more The same 11%16%17%56% 61% 20% 8% 13% Strength Meter How strongly respondents felt about their answers % of People Response Mix Likelihood % Probability Last holiday season, total consumer purchases of technology products averaged $274 per person. Compared to last year's holiday season, how much do you think, on average, consumers will spend on technology products this holiday season?
- 22. Growth rate fortechnology products? 0% (no growth) 5% or more 3.5% 3.6% to less than 5% More than 0%, but less than 2% 12%16%16%20%28% 29% 16% 17% 19% 16% Strength Meter How strongly respondents felt about their answers % of People Response Mix Likelihood % Probability 2% to less than 3.5% 8% 9% 3.5% 3.6% to less than 5% More than 0%, but less than 2% 12%16%16% 17% 19% 16% 0% (no growth) 5% or more 3.5% 3.6% to less than 5% More than 0%, but le than 2% 12%16%16%20%28% 29% 16% 17% 19% 16% Strength Meter How strongly respondents felt about their answers % of People Response Mix Likelihood % Probability 0% (no growth) 5% or more 3.5% 3.6% to less than 5% More than 0%, but less than 2% 12%16%16%20%28% 29% 16% 17% 19% 16% Strength Meter How strongly respondents felt about their answers % of People Response Mix Likelihood % Probability 0% (no growth) 5% or more 20%28% 29% 16% Strength Meter How strongly respondents felt about their answers % of People Response Mix Likelihood % Probability Last holiday season, total consumer purchases of technology products experienced a growth rate of approximately 3.5% over the previous 2014 holiday season. Compared to last year (2015), the growth rate for technology products this coming holiday season (2016) will be?
- 23. #2 Existing TechStays Strong #3 Emerging Tech Percolates
- 24. Most Requested 2016 HolidayTech Gift Wish List - Adults Smartphone, 8% TV, 8% Tablet, 7% Smartwatch, 3% Portable GPS, 2% VG console, 5% Notebook, 11%VR Headset, 2% Home Robotic Vacuum, 2%
- 25. Innovation Continues toGrow Into Holiday Gift Mix Purchase Intent – Yes/Maybe Base: random national sample of 1,005 U.S. adults
- 26. Holiday Tech Gifts:Computers & Smartphone Devices eReader 12% (14%) Notebook 23% Tablet 22% (26%) External Storage 15% (14%) Computing 53% Smartphone 26% (24%) 2016 % (2015 %)
- 27. Tablet Forecast U.S. UnitShipments (000s) -2% -6% -7% -1% -2% Source: CTA, July 2016 Consumer Tech Sales and Forecasts
- 28. Feature % ofLaptop Buyers 2015 2016 Touch Screen 73% 56% Hybrid PC 61% 45% Chromebook -- 19% Laptop Features
- 29. Smartphone Forecast U.S. UnitShipments (000s) 5% -2% -3% -3% -2% -4% Source: CTA, July 2016 Consumer Tech Sales and Forecasts 2016 HH Penetration 74%* +2pts from 2015 * CTA, 18th Annual Consumer Technology Ownership Study, March 2016
- 30. Holiday Tech Gifts:Video & Imaging Devices Video 34% TV 18% (17%) Digital Media Player 18% (16%) Blu-ray or DVD Player 12% (15%) Action Camera 12% Camcorder 6% Digital Camera (Any Type) 13% (14%) Digital Imaging 24% (22%) 360-degree camera 6% Ultra HD Blu-ray Player 7% 2016 % (2015 %)
- 31. 4K Ultra HDTVs – Big for Holiday 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Internet connected 51% 63% 61% 63% 78% 76% Screen <60” 76% (79%) Screen >=60” 45% (35%) 4K Ultra HD 56% (59%) HDR TV 53% 2016 % (2015 %)
- 32. Source: CTA, July2016 Consumer Tech Sales and Forecasts The Outlook for 4K Ultra HD LCD this Holiday Season 1. LCD TV unit volume is down 1% YTD 2. 4K UHD unit volume up 41% YTD 3. October 2015 and November 2015 were the first months to see 4K UHD unit volume exceed 1M units a month 4. CTA anticipates 4.6M to 5M units in 4Q2016
- 33. Holiday Tech Gifts:Audio Audio 53% (52%) Portable Wireless Speakers 18% MP3 Player 16% (14%) Soundbar 12% Headphones (any kind) 40% Bluetooth Speaker 25% High Res Audio Player 8% Headphone Feature % of Headphone Buyers Over or on the ear: less than $100 53% Wireless 45% Earbuds 35% Sports or fitness 25% Over or on the ear: $100 or more 24% 2016 % (2015 %)
- 34. Holiday Tech Gifts:Automotive & Gaming Portable GPS 11% (12%) Automotive 24% (22%) Hands-Free Kit 12% Rearview or Dashboard Camera 8% 2016 % (2015 %) Mid-generation Game Console 14% Gaming 24% (26%) Portable Game Console 10% (11%) Game Console 17% (22%)
- 35. Smartwatch 17% (12%) Holiday TechGifts: Wearables Wearables 27% Activity Tracker 15% (12%) GPS Sports Watch 6% 2016 % (2015 %) Consumer Purchase* *Consumer Journey to Purchase: Health & Fitness (November 2015) Purchased Most Recently Plan to Purchase in Next 12 Months Smartwatch 17% 35% Dedicated Wearable Device 25% 27% Fitness GPS 9% 21% Heart Rate Monitor or Strap 9%
- 36. Fitness Tracker Forecast U.S.Unit Shipments (000s) 5% -2% 60% 25% 20% 15% 10% Source: CTA, July 2016 Consumer Tech Sales and Forecasts
- 37. Smartwatch Forecast U.S. UnitShipments (000s) 15% 5% 2% 1% 0% Source: CTA, July 2016 Consumer Tech Sales and Forecasts
- 38. Holiday Tech Gifts:Smart Home Smart Thermostat 10% (6%) Smart Home 24%Home Camera 8% Digital Assistant Device 6% Home Robotic Vacuum 5% Smart Door Lock 5% 2016 % (2015 %) Estimated U.S. Installed Unit Base 2016 HH Purchase Intent Smart Home Device (excluding Smart Thermostat) 28.6 million 6% Smart Thermostat 10 million 5% Consumer Ownership* *18th Annual Consumer Technology Ownership & Market Potential Study
- 39. Drone 9% (7%) Holiday TechGifts: Emerging Tech Emerging Tech 30% Connected or Digital Toys 11% Smart or Connected Sports Equipment 6% 3D Printer 6% (4%) Pet-related Tech 6% Smart Tracker Tags 5% Connected Scale 2% 2016 % (2015 %) VR Headset 10%
- 40. Video Game Accessory 18%(23%) Holiday Tech Gifts: Accessories Accessories 51% (58%) Electronic Device Case 25% Additional Memory Card 24% (25%) Portable Battery Charger 23% Computer Accessory 17% (20%) Bluetooth Headset 17% (14%) 2016 % (2015 %)
- 41. #4 Online DefinesGrowth Profile
- 42. Planning to BuyMore Holiday Gifts Online This Year 2016 = 28% 2015 = 27% 2014 = 26%
- 43. Online vs. In-StorePurchase Intent % Very or Somewhat Likely to Purchase Tech from… 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 77% 77% 75% 77% 77% 74% 47% 46% 45% 54% 55% 57% Physical Store Online
- 44. % making anonline consumer technology purchase? Strength Meter How strongly respondents felt about their answers % of People Response Mix Likelihood % Probability 50% to less than 55% 6% 11% 65% to less than 70% 3% 7% Less than 50% 14% 22% 55% (remain the same) 7% 6% 56% to less than 60% 25% 27% 60% to less than 65% 12% 14% 70% or more 33% 17% Last holiday season, about 55% of consumers said they were likely to make a technology product purchase online. What percentage of consumers will likely make a consumer technology purchase online this holiday season?
- 45. % making anin-store consumer technology purchase? 70% to less than 77% 7% 12% 78% to less than 85% 7% 10% 85% to less than 90% 7% 4% Less than 60% 36% 39% Strength Meter How strongly respondents felt about their answers % of People Response Mix Likelihood % Probability 60% to less than 65% 10% 19% 65% to less than 70% 9% 12% 90% or more 11% 4% 77% (remain the same) 13% 7% Last holiday season, 77% of US adults said they planned to purchase consumer technology products at a physical store. What percentage of consumers will purchase technology products from a physical store this coming holiday season?
- 46. 61% (+4% over2015) of consumers buying tech will use a mobile device to help them shop for tech. 24.4% 2016 Holiday Mobile Share of Online Sales Mobile Holiday Sales $20.1B
- 47. Online and MobileDriving Holiday Growth 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Online Holiday Sales $29B $28B $29B $34B $41B $48B $53.9B $62.5B $72.3B $84.2B Total Online Holiday Sales (Y/Y Growth) 16% -3.4% 3.6% 17.2% 20.6% 17.1% 12.4% 15.9% 15.7% 16.4% Mobile Holiday Sales $1B $3.7% $6.2B $7.3B $9.2B $13.9B $20.1B Mobile as a % of online holiday sales 3% 9% 13% 13.4% 14.7% 19.2% 23.9%
- 48. #5 Online Deals/Shopping CreatesIsolation
- 49. Where Will ConsumersLearn About Deals? 2015 2014 52% (2015) 63% (2015) 30% (2015)
- 50. Two-Thirds of U.S.Adults Start Shopping in Nov/Dec Q: When do you typically start buying gifts? 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 September or Earlier 22% 18% 17% 16% 17% 15% 16% 14% 18% 15% 15% October 21% 19% 16% 19% 17% 16% 11% 11% 13% 9% 10% November 29% 31% 36% 33% 32% 35% 39% 38% 38% 38% 39% December 23% 26% 26% 25% 27% 28% 25% 30% 23% 29% 27% Don’t Buy Gifts 3% 4% 5% 7% 7% 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% Base: Random national sample of 1,005 U.S. adults
- 51. … And MostGift Buying Occurs Later When do you expect to buy gifts? 2014 2015 2016 October or earlier (Net) 16% 12% 13% September or earlier 9% 5% 7% October 7% 6% 6% November or December (Net) 83% 87% 85% November 49% 44% 44% In November before Thanksgiving 16% 15% 12% From Thanksgiving (incl. Black Friday) 33% 29% 32% December 34% 42% 41%
- 52. 53% 50% Consumers Ready toPounce on Deals 41% Make an Unplanned Purchase Based on a Deal Shop Specific In-Store Holiday Sales Events 42% 2016: 2014: 52% Shop Specific Online Holiday Sales Events N/A 50%41%2015: 51%
- 53. Promo Programs Popular IN-STORERETAILER [NET] 64% ONLINE RETAIL STORE [NET] 53% 83% plan to take part in a promo program when shopping for tech products
- 54. Final Things toConsider
- 55. • Emphasis onExclusivity • Flash Sales and Season Long Deals • Apps Drive More Mobile Purchasing • Wish Lists: Shop, Scan, Build • Price-Matching, Free Shipping, In-Store Pick-Up Holiday 2016 Will Build On 2015 Retail Trends
- 56. Tech in theBullseye: Target’s Top Teen Toys for 2016 • Jetson V6 Hoverboard (available Oct. 23; Target Exclusive) • Nerf Rival Khaos in Red or Blue • Pokémon Sun for Nintendo 3DS • Pokémon Moon for Nintendo 3DS • PlayStation 4 Console • PlayStation VR Headset for PS4 (available Oct. 13) • Madden 2017 for PS4 • Beats Solo 2 Headphones in Red, Yellow or Blue
- 57. The Growing TensionBetween Opening and Closing
- 58. Holiday Shopping Rituals:Then and Now
- 61. 2016 Holiday Forecast SeriesProjected 2016 Holiday Growth Overall Retail Sales 3.8% GAFO Retail Sales 0.5% Electronics Retailers -2.9% Online Sales 16.4% Mobile Sales 45.2% Consumer Spending on Tech 3.1%
- 62. Questions? Shawn DuBravac, Ph.D.,CFA Chief Economist shawnd@CTA.tech @shawndubravac Steve Koenig Sr. Director, Market Research skoenig@CTA.tech @koenigsteve CTA.tech/holiday