- Almond acreage has increased steadily over the past few decades, rising from 411,000 bearing acres in 1990 to 890,000 bearing acres in 2015. - The 2015 almond crop forecast is 1.80 billion meat pounds, down 4% from the previous year, based on a sample of 862 orchard blocks across California. - Yield is forecasted to be 2,020 pounds per acre, down 6% from the previous year, as water allotments are severely low and trees are stressed from the ongoing drought.

1. Presented by ; Doug Flohr,
Vic Tolomeo, Jennifer Van Court
USDA, NASS, Pacific Region Office (PRO)

2. Almond Acreage
2014 Bearing acreage 870,000
2015 Bearing acreage 890,000
20,000 acres * 2000 lbs/acre = 40,000,000 lbs of
production

3. Almond Acreage
Peak Maturity for trees: age 7 to 25 years
Trees aging past maturity
Bearing acreage change 1990 – 1995: 7,000
acres (411,000 to 418,000 bearing acres)
Trees coming into maturity
Bearing acreage change 2010 – 2015: 120,000
acres (770,000 to 890,000 bearing acres)

4. 0.00
0.15
0.30
0.45
0.60
0.75
0.90
1.05
1.20
1.35
1.50
1.65
1.80
1.95
2.10
BillionPounds
Almond Subjective Forecast vs Final Production
1990-2015
Final
Subjective

5. Almond Objective Forecast
Sample: 862 Orchard Blocks
2 trees per orchard
Sample represents the population
Field Work: May 22 – June 19
Use 50+ Enumerators
Random Path Method
Sample of Nuts taken and sent to lab
Measure kernel weight, length, width,
thickness and grade

6. Almond Objective Survey
Measure trunks & limbs

7. Count Nuts

8. Pick Nuts

9. Weigh At Sizing Station

10. Measure with Caliper

11. Samples are very specific, taking into account
variety, location, and age of planting
Models are designed to produce forecast of all
almond production at the state level from the
sample data
Models do not forecast production by variety.
Since there is a large number of Nonpareil
samples, PRO does use NP sample data to
forecast this variety
Sample & OM Models

12. 703
830
1,090
1,040
1,005
915
1,115
1,390
1,630
1,410
1,640
2,030
1,890
2,010
1,870
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MillionMeatlbs.
Year
ALMOND PRODUCTION - CALIFORNIA
OM Forecast vs Final
Final Forecast

13. Almond set 2013 – 2015
State 2013 2014 2015 % Change
6,686 6,646 5,874 -12

14. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
8,157
6,737
6,783
7,561
7,100
7,651
5,536
6,127
7,340
5,400
5,810
7,322
7,041
6,538
6,802
5,829
7,452
5,589
5,956
7,353
7,048
6,686
6,646
5,874
CALIFORNIA ALMONDS
Nuts per Tree, by District
Sacramento Valley San Joaquin Valley State

15. 1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
5,000
5,300
5,600
5,900
6,200
6,500
6,800
7,100
7,400
7,700
8,000
8,300
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Lbs.perAcre
NutsperTree
All Nut Set vs. Yield
Nut Set: All Yield (Lbs/Ac)

16. Almond Set per Tree by Variety,
2013-2015 and % Change
2013 2014 2015
%
Change
Butte 7,535 7,443 7,034 -5
California Types 6,744 6,718 5,737 -15
Carmel 6,571 6,962 5,714 -18
Monterey 6,311 5,910 5,333 -10
Nonpareil 6,141 6,121 5,239 -14
Padre 8,119 7,989 9,037 +13

17. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
7,079
5,136
5,583
7,482
6,571
6,141 6,121
5,239
NONPAREIL TYPE
Nuts per Tree

18. 1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
8,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Lbs.perAcre
NutsperTree
N.P. Nut Set vs. Yield
Nut Set: N.P. Yield (Lbs/Ac)

19. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
7,458
5,302
6,023
6,535
6,845 6,744 6,718
5,737
CALIFORNIA TYPE
Nuts per Tree

20. 1.69
1.60
1.41
1.67
1.45
1.79
1.57
1.47
1.43
1.58
1.72
1.49 1.48
1.36
1.45
1.43
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Grams
Year
CALIFORNIA ALMONDS
Nut Weight (Grams)
13.63
12.87
12.52
13.30
12.34
13.35
12.91
12.39 12.30
13.10 13.20
12.52 12.51
12.11
12.69
12.58
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Millimeters
CALIFORNIA ALMONDS
Kernel Width

21. 1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Lbs.perAcre
Grams
All Kernel Weight vs. Yield
Kernel Weight: ALL Yield (Lbs/Ac)

22. 23.55
23.90
21.54
22.24
22.44
23.73
21.64
21.81
21.60
22.96
23.38
21.84
21.40 21.35 21.42 21.43
20.0
20.5
21.0
21.5
22.0
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Millimeters
Year
CALIFORNIA ALMONDS
Kernel Length
10.24
9.89 9.86
10.47
9.72
10.45
10.31
9.96
9.66
9.93
10.30
9.92 9.94
9.76
10.06
9.89
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Millimeters
Year
CALIFORNIA ALMONDS
Kernel Thickness

23. 98.2 98.1
98.9
97.6
98.4
97.7
97.3
98.5
99.0
98.9
98.7 98.7
99.1
98.9
98.7
98.8
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
Percent
Year
ALMONDS PERCENT SOUND NUTS
2000-2015

24. Forecast and all Statistics
Available On-line
PRO Web: www.nass.usda.gov/ca
NASS Web: www.nass.usda.gov
PRO Contact: (916) 498-5161

25. 2015 Crop Condition
Almond bloom started early this year similar
to last year
Crop is developing quickly and harvest is
expected to be ahead of normal and possibly
ahead of last year’s early start
First hull split around June 6th
Pest and disease pressure is currently low
Water allotments are severely low again this
year, trees stressed last year are facing more
stress this year.

26. 2015 OM Almond Forecast
1.80 Billion Meat Pounds
(-4 Percent)
Bearing Acres: 890,000
(Trees Planted 2013 and earlier)
Yield: 2,020 Pounds
(- 6 Percent)

27. Presented by; Doug Flohr, Vic Tolomeo, Jennifer Van Court