Eurozone falling chickens choice internal or external devaluationMarkets Beyond
The political and economic backround in Europe is awful and no good choice is left to solve the huge imbalances between countries: external or internal devalutation.
Whatever the route followed it will translate into a fall in standard of living of Europeans. The path followed by European politicians for the past 4 years has led to a dead end and they will soon have to decide which of two tough routes to follow..
Post Globalization Issues and Power shift of the CenturyZeeshanMajeed15
GlobalizationWe can define globalization as the increasing interdependence and integration of economies, markets, nations, and cultures.
OR
Globalization envisages a borderless world or seeks the world as a global village.
OR
Globalization is the flow across national borders of trade, finance, people, and of course ideas.
Power shift of the CenturyEra of globalization is ending and giving way to new power centers.
Globalization world was where interconnectedness and the people used to do the same in terms of law and approaches but now we are witnessing the clash of civilizations.
We are now going to a multipolar world where at least three big regions do things increasingly differently.
Macro Manifesto - Investment Outlook for 2015
ABRIDGED RELEASE FOR PUBLIC DISSEMINATION
John Winsell Davies
CIO - Fund Manager
The ‘New Charismatics’, leadership and financial markets
- in the post-consensus, post-parliamentarian world
Narendra Modi - Gujarati brand of compassionate conservatism
Xi Jinping - Bigger than Moa, stocks trump ‘SUFFR’
Shinzō Abe - Brave Diet; audentes fortuna Iuvat ... and Abe
Joko Widodo - Clove Revolution ‘A New Hope’, the Luke Skywalker of Asia
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - Badder than Bin Laden, ‘Black Crow’ event in the making
Enrique Peña Nieto - PEMEX RIP, Mano e mano with El Jefe, Yo Soy 132 be damned
Hassan Rouhani - The promise of Khatami realised 2015? EM investors refocus on Iran
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin - VVP’s Russia, the endgame as I see it
Kim Jong-un - Fun Boy Three, no laughing matter
Emerging Markets corporate governance mandates
- total return not ideology
Where is the floor? Marginal supply and the economics of unconventional oil production
The Dollar Bully World - Captain America still feeling Marvel-lous
What’ll it be? Call drinks for in the New Year
Asset allocation - Huntington, Hopkins, Stanford and Crocker
Geographic dispersion - favoured destinations
Industry sector - priority focus
... Independent Global Macro and Emerging Market Investment Analysis
This is an original opinion piece which may not reflect the views of the Firm
No other parties contributed to the production of this publication; the opinions expressed here are his own
Registered in England and Wales: 02895959 | Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority: 170913
Eurozone falling chickens choice internal or external devaluationMarkets Beyond
The political and economic backround in Europe is awful and no good choice is left to solve the huge imbalances between countries: external or internal devalutation.
Whatever the route followed it will translate into a fall in standard of living of Europeans. The path followed by European politicians for the past 4 years has led to a dead end and they will soon have to decide which of two tough routes to follow..
Post Globalization Issues and Power shift of the CenturyZeeshanMajeed15
GlobalizationWe can define globalization as the increasing interdependence and integration of economies, markets, nations, and cultures.
OR
Globalization envisages a borderless world or seeks the world as a global village.
OR
Globalization is the flow across national borders of trade, finance, people, and of course ideas.
Power shift of the CenturyEra of globalization is ending and giving way to new power centers.
Globalization world was where interconnectedness and the people used to do the same in terms of law and approaches but now we are witnessing the clash of civilizations.
We are now going to a multipolar world where at least three big regions do things increasingly differently.
Macro Manifesto - Investment Outlook for 2015
ABRIDGED RELEASE FOR PUBLIC DISSEMINATION
John Winsell Davies
CIO - Fund Manager
The ‘New Charismatics’, leadership and financial markets
- in the post-consensus, post-parliamentarian world
Narendra Modi - Gujarati brand of compassionate conservatism
Xi Jinping - Bigger than Moa, stocks trump ‘SUFFR’
Shinzō Abe - Brave Diet; audentes fortuna Iuvat ... and Abe
Joko Widodo - Clove Revolution ‘A New Hope’, the Luke Skywalker of Asia
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - Badder than Bin Laden, ‘Black Crow’ event in the making
Enrique Peña Nieto - PEMEX RIP, Mano e mano with El Jefe, Yo Soy 132 be damned
Hassan Rouhani - The promise of Khatami realised 2015? EM investors refocus on Iran
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin - VVP’s Russia, the endgame as I see it
Kim Jong-un - Fun Boy Three, no laughing matter
Emerging Markets corporate governance mandates
- total return not ideology
Where is the floor? Marginal supply and the economics of unconventional oil production
The Dollar Bully World - Captain America still feeling Marvel-lous
What’ll it be? Call drinks for in the New Year
Asset allocation - Huntington, Hopkins, Stanford and Crocker
Geographic dispersion - favoured destinations
Industry sector - priority focus
... Independent Global Macro and Emerging Market Investment Analysis
This is an original opinion piece which may not reflect the views of the Firm
No other parties contributed to the production of this publication; the opinions expressed here are his own
Registered in England and Wales: 02895959 | Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority: 170913
We live in an interconnected world and geopolitical developments in Ukraine and Syria are bound to add volatility in global geopolitical environment and influence small and large economies around the world.
Further, the economic environment is undergoing an unusual shift, through unorthodox and new policy making in Japan, US and Europe.
In such a situation small sized GCC economies, which are also dependent heavily on commodity prices and transit of goods, should exercise caution, and not get swayed by the rosy pictures stock markets around the world are painting.
Ryan Avent writes that this year's best business books on economics all look back, with various degrees of pessimism on the construction of the post-World War II order, and on its demise. Marc Levinson's An Extraordinary Time chronicles the remarkable growth of the period between 1945 and 1973 -- and suggests the problems that have cropped up in the past 40 years represent a reversion to the mean. Rick Wartzman's The End of Loyalty tracks the breakdown of the social contract between employers and employees through the lens of four major U.S. industrial companies. And Walter Scheidel's The Great Leveler argues that the inequality that characterizes our own time has been present in societies since the beginning of recorded history.
Are fiscal/monetary conditions affecting the macro thesis for Canadian farmland investments? Do publicly traded equity investments hedge all inflation regimes? Canada's debt to GDP - looming threat or irrelevancy?
http://bit.ly/GEWjuin2014PwC
Le Brésil accueille la Coupe du Monde de football ce mois-ci. Cet événement sportif va mettre l'accent sur une économie des BRIC qui a traversé une période difficile depuis la crise financière.
We live in an interconnected world and geopolitical developments in Ukraine and Syria are bound to add volatility in global geopolitical environment and influence small and large economies around the world.
Further, the economic environment is undergoing an unusual shift, through unorthodox and new policy making in Japan, US and Europe.
In such a situation small sized GCC economies, which are also dependent heavily on commodity prices and transit of goods, should exercise caution, and not get swayed by the rosy pictures stock markets around the world are painting.
Ryan Avent writes that this year's best business books on economics all look back, with various degrees of pessimism on the construction of the post-World War II order, and on its demise. Marc Levinson's An Extraordinary Time chronicles the remarkable growth of the period between 1945 and 1973 -- and suggests the problems that have cropped up in the past 40 years represent a reversion to the mean. Rick Wartzman's The End of Loyalty tracks the breakdown of the social contract between employers and employees through the lens of four major U.S. industrial companies. And Walter Scheidel's The Great Leveler argues that the inequality that characterizes our own time has been present in societies since the beginning of recorded history.
Are fiscal/monetary conditions affecting the macro thesis for Canadian farmland investments? Do publicly traded equity investments hedge all inflation regimes? Canada's debt to GDP - looming threat or irrelevancy?
http://bit.ly/GEWjuin2014PwC
Le Brésil accueille la Coupe du Monde de football ce mois-ci. Cet événement sportif va mettre l'accent sur une économie des BRIC qui a traversé une période difficile depuis la crise financière.
With Halloween right around the corner, it's the time of year to analyse what is safe and what is scary in investment markets.
And, the scariest investments in the world will become a complete surprise to many.
In this IceCap Global Outlook we detail what to be afraid of and why, and better yet - where you should hide.
The European Union (EU) is a political and economic union of 28 member countries.
Its stated goals are to promote peace, freedom, and justice. It will also enhance economic, social and territorial cohesion, while also respecting everyone's rich culture and diversity.
Reality is a different story.
The EU is a bully.
Its short history is littered with continuous, venomous, and contradicting actions against many of its 28 member countries - and all to the benefit of those in Brussels.
It has been documented, that bullies only respond to strength. And today across the EU - the victims of the bullies in Brussels are fighting back.
The political establishments are quickly losing power.
The tide has turned, and it will have a profound effect on the EU, the Eurozone and global financial markets.
Every major shift in economics, politics and social environments creates significant investment opportunities.
This time will be no different.
It can be said that the capitulation of the Greek government is a gigantic wear to the far left in Europe and in the world and that only uncompromising believers will get serious again any party of the extreme left which has the campaign platform to face the international financial capital. Syriza repeat failure of the leftist parties in the world, including Brazil with Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments which submitted to the dictates of finance capital. This was a victory of great importance for the European Union because sagged Tsipras who was elected on the promise to oppose the austerity programs imposed by the Troika to the Greek government.
Brexit the situation as of march 19th 2017Kitty Ussher
A summary of the political situation around Brexit, good for describing to international business audiences. Covers why the referendum result happened, and outlines what is likely to happen from now.
Could the French Presidential Election have a seismic impact on markets?Hantec Markets
The French Presidential election is next on the agenda. The first round of voting is held on Sunday 23rd April, with a second final run-off to be held on Sunday 7th May, if there is no initial absolute majority for one candidate. Whilst National Font candidate Marine Le Pen has apparently always had the 2022 Presidential campaign as her primary target, the wave of populism that has arisen with Brexit and Trump has thrust her into prominence for 2017. Could Le Pen pull off a similar victory for the anti-establishment movement in France?
We look at the state of play in the run up to the French Presidential election. We consider the candidates and what they stand for, the current polling statistics (for what they are worth), the chances of a Le Pen victory and the potential impact of the result on financial markets.
This month’s update is longer and contains more geopolitics than usual. This is because, for the first time in two generations, the economies of every country in the world are growing (with the possible exception of North Korea). This synchronised global upswing presents new risks and uncertainties.
http://www.jsacs.com/
La aseguradora Coface a través de su publicación "Panorama" nos hace un análisis del riesgo político en Europa y de las consecuencias que puede conllevar.
In this special edition of Valuation Insights, we discuss some of the key valuation and compliance impacts that will likely result from Brexit. Specifically, we review the short-term and long-term economic implications, as well as compliance and regulatory considerations. We also highlight valuation issues, including how companies and investors determine cost of capital and measure risk in the current environment, and discuss implications for transfer pricing with respect to EU Directives. While all industries will be impacted by Brexit, in this issue we focus on the banking and financial services sectors, which stand to be the most heavily affected.
Everyone enjoys a nice surprise - especially the ones that cause you to grin ear to ear, smile non-stop and wish the moment will never end.
There can also be bad surprises - and these are not the least bit enjoyable.
In this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook, we explain how governments are about to experience a bad surprise. And their reaction to these surprises will be significantly higher taxes for everyone.
There will also be a good surprise - adjusting your portfolios in anticipation of the bad surprise will allow you to not only preserve your capital, but also have you grinning ear to ear.
We invite you to read more.
For many, the investment world can be a confusing place. Banks, mutual finds, stocks, bonds, currencies, insurance, inflation, taxes, economies - it's no wonder the majority have glossed eyes.
And sitting on top of this confusion pie are central banks.
Each country has its own central bank which is responsible for setting overnight interest rates and the amount of money in that country's financial system.
Yet, there is one central bank that is the most important, sits on top of the world, and all of its actions impact not only their local country, but also every other country in the world.
This central bank is the US Federal Reserve.
In this latest IceCap Global Outlook we share how actions by the US Federal Reserve are always reactive to a crisis which, ironically, it helped create in the first place.
Today's central banks are once again, trying to thread the financial needle, and rescue us from the crisis that was born from the depths of the 2008-09 Great Financial Crisis.
The crisis is happening, yet there is good news - the crisis is creating opportunities to not only preserve your hard earned savings, but to capitalize too.
For the past 10 years, global central banks have created policies to artificially suppress interest rates to the lowest levels ever recorded.
Included in this strategy has been a deliberate strategy to create negative interest rates which have subsequently created an enormous financial bubble in global bond markets.
While this bubble and associated risks are known to a small section of global investors, Canada remains highly complacent to the risks involved and have demonstrated a lack of appreciation of how risks outside of Canada, can actually create financial stress within Canada.
This issue of the IceCap Global Outlook shares our view on Canadian Provincial Debt markets and why we believe it has a high probability of evolving into a significant liquidity event for Canadian investors.
The current economic expansion has achieved 2 significant milestones. And what makes these milestones special is that when combined together, they create an economic paradox.
For starters, the current economic expansion has set the record as the longest period of continuous economic growth in US history.
While at the same time, it has also set the record as being the weakest period of continuous economic growth in US history.
This should raise questions as well as concerns.
The answer to the primary question is as follows: this economic expansion has been completely supported and enabled by unorthodox interest policies by global central banks. Zero % and negative % interest rates around the world has allowed economies to maintain positive, yet muted growth.
The concern with this economic experience is that the majority of this growth has been artificially created.
In this IceCap Global Outlook, we examine the invisible hand and why it is the key to understanding why economic growth is so weak, and better still - what happens next.
South of San Francisco lies a small stretch of the famous California Highway 1 notoriously known by locals as The Devil's Slide.
The stunning view along this road is supported by a weak and steep foundation of loose rock, and porous soil that has been increasingly eroding away over the years sweeping cars, pavement and lives into the sea below.
Naturally, rock slides from the erosion reached a point where the road has been deemed unsafe and closed. In the end, the Devil in the details was a weak foundation supported by illogical engineering.
Today, the Financial Devil has watched patiently, as the world’s central banks and political leaders built a financial debt and interest rate structure on a foundation consisting of theories, acronyms and worst of all – hope.
Since 1982, the financial world has enjoyed a thrilling ride – one zoomed around the world by 36 years of bailouts and declining long-term interest rates.
In this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook we help you see how a pattern of minor financial stresses will culminate into a major financial stress.
And more importantly, how to identify the opportunities that will be created as the majority of the industry continues to ignore the Financial Devil.
In this issue, IceCap shows how the Toronto housing bubble has been created and what will make it break - the answer may surprise you.
In addition, we detail how the European Central Bank has applied all sorts of financial make-up to convince the world that Italy, Spain, Portugal and others are in solid, financial shape.
Of course, the problem with make-up is that eventually it wears off, and then what is left exposed is not pretty.
The recent American election continues to have the world on edge. Seemingly every media outlet and investment manager around the world continues to hammer away at the bad or good that will be created by the actions of the new President.
This is a mistake.
While the entire world continues to be focused on President Trump and American Politics, it has become completely distracted as to what is happening in Europe.
Europe remains a pile of timber and in this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook, we describe how dramatic swings in politics and interest rates will be the spark that reignites the crisis in the old world.
With Halloween right around the corner, it's the time of year to analyse what is safe and what is scary in investment markets.
And, the scariest investments in the world will become a complete surprise to many.
In this IceCap Global Outlook we detail what to be afraid of and why, and better yet - where you should hide.
The reason the world's economic slump continues is quite clear - people are spending less money than before.
The solution used by the world's central banks is to reduce the amount of money available to people to spend.
Irony or confusion? Take a pick. One thing is clear - investors are doing unusual things with their money, and unfortunately they are paying the price.
When it comes to sleepless nights, Toimi Soini of Finland originally set the record by using the “toothpicks under the eyelids” method for 11 straight days. In hindsight, Toimi was an amateur.
You wouldn’t know it, but the nice people running the Bank of Canada have gone sleepless since 2003 – that’s 3,564 days without sweet dreams.
Yet, that’s nothing compared to the very private folks at the Swiss National Bank. These super-secretive bankers have surpassed over 4,660 sleepless nights – despite living in Zzzzzzurich.
This, of course brings us to the World record for sleepless nights. At 5,025 nights and counting, the always polite and well dressed chaps over at the Bank of England are reigning champions.
Toimi Soini was not a banker and this was his downfall. As for the Canadians, Swiss and British – yes they are all bankers, but not just any bankers. This terrific trio have the displeasure of forever being known as the bankers who sold their gold.
The irony of course, is the action of the World’s central bankers themselves is the reason why gold is destined to remain golden for sometime to come. And with gold sitting near $1700/oz, and with no end to the money printing games, the sleepless nights are destined to continue.
She adores hats. She is always very polite and respectful of others. She waves to everyone, and consistently avoids conflict. She is a lady; she is The Queen.
Without a doubt, Queen Elizabeth lives a life quite unlike everyone else in the World – after all, royalty does have its privileges. Yet, when it comes to investing, the Queen is swimming in the same pool of stock market sharks as us common people.
Like everyone else, she pours through her quarterly statements to see how she’s fared. And like everyone else, she loves to make money and simply deplores negative returns. It was rumored that the 2008 crisis hit her particularly hard – over USD 40 million in stock market losses.
This experience must have jilted something, as when The Queen was visiting the esteemed London School of Economics she asked the professor a rather “un-queen” like question – why did economists fail to predict the biggest global recession since the Great Depression?
Berlin (1990): Inspiration from the German reunification was not inspiring. In fact – nothing was going as planned. Ideas were not flowing, lyrics were not working, and the music certainly wasn’t playing.
The days were so dire, that Bono pleaded that their music would have to move people in mysterious ways, and be even better than the real thing. Never to give up, the rock band dug themselves in and declared they would keep trying to become one, until the end of the world.
Berlin (2013): Inspiration from becoming the World’s exporting super power had long vanished. Throwing their hard earned money at the Irish and Portuguese, staring down the Greeks while Athens burned, and forcing the Italians, Spanish and Cypriots to accept their way or the highway was reason for celebration. Everything was going as planned - until now.
Years ago, the seeds were sown.
Governments began an untenable trend of consistently spending more money than they collected in taxes. The difference of course, was made up by borrowing. As the years and deficits rolled along, so too did the amount of money owing. Governments responded by borrowing even more.
Meanwhile, global economies inevitably experienced varying crises. Governments and central banks always responded the same way - even more spending (and borrowing), and lower interest rates to stimulate growth.
Today, we've reached a dead-end.
Governments continue to borrow, but only because interest rates have been reduced to 0% AND because they are borrowing from themselves by printing money.
This dead-end is also compounded by a slowing global economy caused by the reluctance of private investors to spend.
In this issue of the IceCap Global Outlook, we prepare investors for a collision between:
a slowing economy,
0% and negative% interest rates,
an unsustainable debt binge.
What happens next hasn't occurred before in our lifetime - and this is why many investors will be blindsided.
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
The WhatsPump Pseudonym Problem and the Hilarious Downfall of Artificial Enga...
May 2014 IceCap Global Outlook
1. Our view on global investment markets:
May 2014 – Wind of change
Keith Dicker, CFA
Chief Investment Officer
keithdicker@IceCapAssetManagement.com
www.IceCapAssetManagement.com
2. 1
The wind of change
On February 3, 1960 British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan
addressed the South African Parliament and noted “the wind of
change is blowing through the continent.” This astute recognition of
upcoming independence movements in Africa would become a
polarising subject for years to come.
“Wind of change” was also a power ballad by the German rock band,
the Scorpions. The smooth, lung gripping vocals would go on to sell
14 million copies and become the anthem for political change in
Germany and the Soviet Union. Powerful stuff indeed.
Of course, as everything happens in three’s, the Scorpions could be
on the verge of collecting even more royalties perhaps in as little as
two weeks from now. The May elections to the European Parliament
are rapidly approaching and the unexpected is about to become the
expected.
First a little background.
Nothing in Europe is ever simple. The political structure of the
European Union is so complicated that it would make neuroscientists
blush. Our June 2012 publication “Cool things from Europe” detailed
the distinct lack of common sense in most things put together by the
European Union.
Perhaps the best example of the absurdity behind the money eating
The return of the hair band
May 2014 Wind of change
www.IceCapAssetManagement.com
machine in Brussels is demonstrated by the 26,911 word document
stipulating the rules for selling cabbage across the old world. By
comparison, the entire US Constitution with all 27 Amendments only
used 7,818 words.
Politically, the European Union currently consists of 28 individual
countries, each with their own democratically elected governments.
Adjacent to national governments, each country also elects officials
to the European Parliament. It is this European Parliament that sets
the rules for selling cabbage, amongst other things.
Until recently, few cared about EU Parliament Elections. With voter
turnout routinely less than 20%, the only people who really cared
were those who stood to benefit, everyone else went about their
own business and complained about local politics only. Brussels was
irrelevant – until now.
The ongoing European debt crisis has produced wild political swings
with some countries seeing jaw-dropping shifts from capitalism to
socialism, and others seeing the reverse. Yet, after 5 years with no
economic improvement from either political stand, people are
becoming a tad restless and are beginning to search for political
alternatives from the main stream parties. And the upcoming EU
Elections are proving to be the perfect platform for disgruntled voters
to voice their displeasure.
In the United Kingdom for example, the United Kingdom Independent
3. 2
Watch it on YouTube
www.IceCapAssetManagement.com
Party (UKIP) has just vaulted to the top of the polls. This eclectic
group certainly has a few polarising views that causes anyone at
anytime to turn their heads with a grimace. Yet, it is their adamant
stance that the EU is a complete waste of money; draining jobs away
from local lads, as well as enriching an elite few in the bureaucratic
heaven called Brussels that is drawing support.
Whereas a few years ago, this group barely registered in the polls,
today UKIP has claimed over 38% of voters intentions compared to
just 27% and 18% respectively for the rather very traditional Labour
and Conservative parties.
The UKIP party is lead by Nigel Farage and truth be told, this fella has
turned into somewhat of a folk hero standing against everything the
EU shouldn’t be. Mr. Farage himself is currently a Member of the
European Parliament and his regular and eloquent criticisms of the
very organisation that pays him his weekly cheque can be found on
any YouTube search. It is well worth spending a few minutes listening
and watching.
Yet, once you peel away Mr. Farage, the rest of the UKIP party wears
very thin with many inconsistent and insulting views. Depending
upon the day of the week it may or may not even have an official
party platform.
Within London, the mere mention of UKIP draws snickers and
disapproving sneers. Yet, outside of the global financial super city,
UKIP is very popular. It stands for the man on the street and this is
the reason why it has earned space within our global market outlook.
Everywhere in the world today you will find increasing interest and
coverage of the growing income inequality between the rich and
poor. And this is where political parties such as UKIP capitalise.
Throughout economic history, every time there has been a severe
downturn which has required hitting the reset button, main stream
political parties have fallen to the wayside. It happened in ancient
Rome, Greece, and China, and today’s version will likely be no
different.
First we must understand, that as long as you have a job and a full
belly you are unlikely to express your dissatisfaction on a national
level. Let’s face it, after a long day at the office, and then an early
evening of yard work and looking after the kids, the last thing anyone
would want to do is drag themselves down to the local square to
protest.
This is certainly true in Canada – the economy isn’t booming or
busting, everyone is simply trudging along with full bellies. Yet, in
other parts of the world, and especially in Europe this isn’t the case.
Since money and economies are intricately connected in today’s
global money world, these parts of the world with growing
discontent, decreasing morale and not quite so full bellies should be
of interest to everyone with a bank account.
May 2014 Wind of change
4. 3
Everyone wants to leave – where will they go?
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Everything is booming
The stock markets are booming, the economy is booming, and the
main stream media is booming with stories about both. Yet, if one
looked closely between all of this booming, one would find that
everything isn’t quite booming after all.
For starters, the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC poll reported 54% of
respondents would vote to replace EVERY member of the American
congress if the ballot option was available. Let’s think about that for a
moment – the majority of people in the most democratic country in
the world would boot out every single elected official in Washington.
This isn’t exactly a booming vote of confidence.
The same poll also reported that 66% believe the American economy
is on the wrong track and 65% said their representative didn’t
deserve another term in Washington.
But, the economy and the stock market are booming.
Shifting our attention to Europe, the big media and governments are
also reporting that the stock market is booming and the economy is
also booming once again – just as the governments hoped (there’s
that word again) it would.
Yet, if the stock market and the economy are booming why do we
see:
- UK considering leaving the European Union
- Scotland voting to leave the UK
- Catalonia voting to leave Spain
- Venice voting to leave Italy
- Greece not being allowed a vote on leaving the Eurozone.
From our perspective, the only thing booming in Europe are
separatist movements – no one wants to stay, except of course those
who have a vested interest in the status quo.
And when it comes to the European status quo, there’s no better
status quoy place than France to regain control over the entire world
– yes France, the bastion of the socialists movement.
A couple of years ago, we commented that France was heading up
Merde Creek without an economic paddle. And that was before
current President Francois Hollande was elected. Since then of
course, France’s economic plight has worsened to the point where an
astounding 88% of French voters have absolutely no confidence in
their President to turn things around.
In fact, financial conditions have become so bad in France that both
the rich and the poor want to leave France – and both for the very
same reason.
The rich are leaving due to horrible economic conditions created by
the French government. Meanwhile, poor French students are also
May 2014 Wind of change
5. 4
Merde Creek
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leaving due to horrible economic conditions created by the French
government.
On some levels, getting two distinct and economically different
groups to agree on something is a sign of political success.
Of course, at this very moment President Hollande and his crack
economic advisors are brewing yet another economic recovery plan
to hopefully (there’s that word again) kick start the economy yet
again.
All we can say is don’t hold your breath.
The obvious structural changes necessary include: less red tape for
business, and less government workers overall. Unfortunately, there
is no hope for these needed changes. Instead, the world is treated to
such bizarre anti-business announcements such as restricting a
company’s ability to contact their employees via mobile phone or
emails after the work day is over. Or better still, making limousines
wait 15 minutes before they are permitted to pick-up their client.
So much for meeting those tight deadlines.
Meanwhile, Brussels is directing France to raise taxes further and to
cut spending further. Of course, the only effect these austerity
policies will have is to push France even further up Merde Creek.
To fully appreciate France’s slippery economic slope, simply
understand that the young and unemployed are writing books
detailing how bad it is to live in the land of baguettes.
Unfortunately, since economic policy within France is a disaster, and
economic policy across the rest of Europe is no better, we see no
hope of any economic recovery.
Upcoming wealth taxes and higher property taxes will only further
drive private capital away. Yet, the irony is that European leaders
believe their actions will help to restore investor confidence, when in
fact it is doing the exact opposite.
As can be expected, the very kind folks over in Frankfurt and the
European Central Bank see things differently. One thing is for certain,
the one-dimensional thinking of this uninspiring group never ceases
to amaze us. Here at IceCap, we have consistently expressed our view
that monetary and fiscal policy adopted by our governments and
central banks is deeply flawed and if continued will create an
economic and social storm that will dwarf the 2008 crisis.
Albert Einstein once said that the definition of insanity is doing the
same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result.
Considering central banks in Japan, USA, Britain, Switzerland and
Europe have all warmly embraced 0% interest rates and money
printing, and with each one experiencing absolutely no acceleration
in economic growth, one would think someone in the meeting room
May 2014 Wind of change
6. 5
In my 30 years of experience….
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would have the courage to raise their hand and question the
effectiveness of these crazy economic policies.
Don’t hold your breath waiting for this to happen either – why bite
the hand that feeds you?
As can be expected, the people in France are now as confused as
ever. When you think about it, they should be forgiven. After all, in
2007 they overwhelmingly elected Nicolas Sarkozy to President.
Sarkozy, his super-model spouse and his super-right-wing political
agenda was suppose to return France to its rightful place amongst
the world’s elite countries. Five long years later, Sarkozy, his spouse,
and his right wing views were gone and France performed a political
180 degree turn, landing squarely in the lap of the left-hugging
political machine known as Francois Hollande.
Truth be told, Mr. Hollande was simply in the right place at the right
time. The 2008 economic crisis screamed for political change
everywhere – his campaign platform simply adopted the opposite of
everything Sarkozy stood for.
Two very quick years later, President Hollande has one of the lowest
approval ratings of any elected official in the history of the universe -
not a proud achievement by any means.
As a French voter, you now know the political right didn’t work, and
now you know the political left doesn’t work either – hence the
confusion. Yet, when you compare France to any other Eurozone
country, there really isn’t that much of a difference. Sure the names,
faces and numbers are a bit different, but they are all swinging in the
same direction.
Now to our readers outside of Europe, this may all sound
unimportant. How can the political landscape in France affect
economies in Canada, America, Australia and elsewhere? This
conclusion is actually 100% correct – but only if you are using
economic history from 1980 to 2007.
While many market pundits and larger investment houses commonly
wheel out the “in my 30 years of investment experience, I’ve never
seen [this or that happen]....” Truth be told, the world’s financial,
economic and political history actually predates any Smokey and the
Bandit movie.
It’s our view that Investors today are facing a financial landscape that
hasn’t been seen during the last 100 years and likely not again during
the next 100 years. The sooner investors realise that major financial
turning points are in the distant future the better for their financial
health.
The events leading up to Europe shedding its Euro and fiscal union
will have far reaching effects around the world. Global economic
growth will undoubtedly decline, European bond markets will face
May 2014 Wind of change
7. 6
With arms wide open
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major losses as will their bond holders: the pension funds, insurance
companies and banks. These losses of course will be initiated by
private investors taking their money and running to a safer place. And
it is these safer places that will provide the opportunity to both
protect your wealth and provide opportunities for growth.
Of course, the reason why Europe remains mired in a deathly debt
spiral is due to its illogical insistence to use more debt to cure a debt
problem. To really appreciate the effect of this asinine approach, look
no further than Portugal.
Portugal
In 2007, Portugal had EUR 116 billion in debt and collapsed into the
open arms of the European bailout machine notoriously referred to
as the Troika.
This Troika, consisting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the
European Union (EU) and the European Central Bank (ECB), forced
Portugal to accept a EUR 78 billion low interest loan, or else –
Portuguese children for generations to come would have no future,
so they were told.
Today, after 5 years of Troika imposed tax increases, job losses and
less retirement and healthcare benefits, Portugal owes EUR 214
billion in debt – giving millions of future Portuguese children billions
of reasons to be unthankful to the Troika.
Today, both the Troika and the Portuguese government have declared
that financially, Portugal has been saved.
Yes, it seems that only in the mathematical fantasy land called Europe
can a country be cured from a debt problem by taking on more debt,
and not just a little more debt but a boatload of debt – Merde Creek
style debt to be exact.
Naturally, it’s at this point armchair economists insist that more debt
is okay so long as you have more growth to go along with it. Chart 1
and Chart 2 details exactly how Portugal has faired since the
generous helping hands of the Troika came along.
As for more growth, consider the following:
- 2008 Portugal’s economy was growing at +2.4%.
- 2013 Portugal's economy was growing at -1.4%.
So much for more debt creating more growth.
Now this is where the armchair economists throw in the towel and
rely upon the big bank economists to counter argue that growth
follows employment which is getting better:
- 2008 Portugal had 5.2 million people working
- 2013 Portugal had 4.6 million people working
So much for more debt creating more jobs.
May 2014 Wind of change
8. 7
Chart 1: Portugal debt outstanding
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2007 2013
Before Bailout
After Bailout
Source: Eurostat
EUR 116 billion in debt
EUR 214 billion in debt
May 2014 Wind of change
9. 8
Chart 2: Portugal employment
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Before Bailout
After Bailout
Source: Eurostat
4.6 million people working
5.2 million people working
2008 2013
May 2014 Wind of change
10. 9
Debt cures everything
www.IceCapAssetManagement.com
Of course, once the armchair economists, and the big bank
economists walk away in despair, this leaves everyone’s favourite
global money group – the IMF, to defend their debt bullying tactics.
The conclusion from the latest IMF Review of Portugal is a hum
dinger – all 94 pages of it. For starters, the message is loud and clear:
if this debt bailout thingy doesn’t work, it is all Portugal’s fault. Yes,
the IMF states very clearly that the “short-term outlook has improved
and program implementation remains on track” but then adds
“notwithstanding another adverse Constitutional Court ruling.”
Despite all of the very good and nice intentions of the IMF, it appears
that even the Portuguese courts are having trouble accepting the
draconian 10% pension cuts dictated by the Troika. In fact the
constitutional court concluded the required cuts were
“unconstitutional” and that it “violated the principle of trust”.
So much for more debt creating more trust.
As “trust” is often over rated, the Troika views this as a minor set-
back. More importantly, the IMF report continues with the shocking
news that Portugal “continues to confront major economic
challenges”.
So much for more debt resolving major economic challenges.
Apparently 5 years of recession, 5 years of job losses and 5 years of
cutbacks in government services hasn’t instilled confidence in people
and companies to spend and hire again. We can only assume that the
rumour of the Troika policy “the beatings will continue until morale
improves” is true after all.
Many people don’t realize that the Portuguese bailout (as was the
Irish, Spanish, Italian, Greek and Cypriot bailouts) was simply a
mechanism to bailout Europe’s banks and insurance companies. Of
the EUR 78 billion handed to Portugal, very little remained in the
country. In fact, this new money was simply used to repay old loans
that were coming due. Yes, new loans are used to pay old loans –
Charles Ponzi would’ve have been prouder.
Going forward, as long as Portugal continues to spend more money
than it collects in taxes, its debt outstanding will never decrease. In
fact it will continue to increase until the Portuguese people say
enough is enough and simply stops paying back the money it owes.
Current economic news on Portugal reports that the country has now
exited European bailout programs and is once again able to borrow
money on its own. In fact, today you can buy a Portuguese
Government Bond that will pay you about 3.5% a year in interest over
the next 10 years.
But wait, there’s a catch – there’s always a catch.
May 2014 Wind of change
11. 10
Whatever it takes
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This 3.5% yield is implicitly guaranteed by the European Central Bank
(ECB). Remove this guarantee and you can add another digit in front
of the “3” – yes, that’s the power of a money printing machine.
In 2012, the ECB famously announced it would do whatever it takes
to defend the Euro. As odd as it may sound, if Portugal (or Greece, or
Italy or anyone else for that matter) left the Eurozone, the Euro
would likely collapse. This is the nightmare that keeps the Troika
awake every minute of every night.
As such, it goes without saying that investors buying these shiny new
bonds from Portugal are making a wager that the Eurozone stays
together. It should be very clear that current governments in power
and current policy makers – and we stress “current”, completely
support this stance. The reason IceCap is telling you this story is due
to the fact that current governments are slowly losing their grip on
power in society.
We are very confident that it is only a matter of when – not if, the
Eurozone breaks and the breaking will be caused by either a planned
election or a grass roots social movement to force change.
Now, there are numerous straws that can break the European camel’s
back – simply close your eyes and pick one. The point being, despite
umpteen different bailouts, followed by umpteen different stimulus
programs, neatly delivered by umpteen different election promises –
current European governments are increasingly becoming less
enamoured by its voting citizens.
Eurozone
Ireland
France
Wealth Tax
May 2014 Wind of change
Which straw will break Europe’s back?
12. 11
The Moody Blues
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Current Markets
Depending upon which day of the week you purchased stocks, you
may be up or down for 2014. Yes, it’s been a topsy-turvy year already.
Yet unknown to many, an unusual and perhaps disturbing fact has
emerged during the first 4 months of the year – the only day of the
week that has seen the stock market increase on average has been
Tuesday. We kid you not.
While most people are scouring the earth for the next Google or
Apple, and while others are sharpening their minds to estimate next
year’s earnings for the entire market, and even more people are
simply buying the dip (because we’ve been told this always works),
the real easy money has simply followed the Federal Reserves’
Calendar to determine which day of the week they would be printing
money.
We’ll let you decide the winning day.
On the other 4 days of the week, we continue to have really good
conversations with people from around the world regarding current
market dynamics. Recently, there’s been plenty of media hype over a
possible market crash and in many ways you cannot blame them.
After all, conventional thinking confirms that economic growth does
not support current stock market levels.
In addition, when you consider the price investors are willing to pay
May 2014 Wind of change
Source: ZeroHedge
for current sales and revenue growth, it’s little wonder investors are
concerned. Chart 4 (next page) shows the current Price to Sales Ratio
for the American stock market.
While many market observers like to value the stock market based
upon earnings or profits – the problem with relying upon earnings
metrics for valuation models is that earnings have become easily
affected by one-time charges, different accounting accrual methods
as well as various smoothing techniques to reduce earnings volatility.
In short – earnings are not always what they appear to be.
Chart 3
13. 12
Chart 4: S&P 500 Median Price to Sales Ratio
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May 2014 Wind of change
One way to get around this valuation challenge is to rely upon good
‘ole fashion revenue or sales numbers. It completely filters out the
accounting noise and really provides a good view as to what is really
happening at a company.
Using this metric in the above chart, two things should jump out at
you immediately. First of all, American stocks are more expensive
today relative to any other period shown in the study.
Secondly, today’s valuation is over 2 standard deviations from the
average valuation. In other words, stocks are not only expensive, but
they are really expensive.
So, should investors be worried? The answer – yes and no. Yes, in that
current markets are certainly due for a correction. Markets move in
ebbs and flows and it’s really only every now and then they are truly
at fair value or truly represent the current state of the economy.
Source: Ned Davis Research
1. More expensive than ever
2. Extremely expensive
relative to average
14. 13
1,277 reasons to fear a market correction
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May 2014 Wind of change
That may sound odd, but markets will always overreact to both good
and bad conditions – the trick is to understand the conditions driving
current markets.
Today it is fact that we haven’t seen a 20% market correction in the
US market for a very long time – 1,277 days to be exact.
While a 20% market decline may sound rather harsh, it actually
happens more frequently than you’d think. During Secular Bull
Markets, we usually see 1,105 days before the dreaded 20% decline.
Whereas Secular Bear Markets only manage on average 486 days
before the 20% tumble hits.
Now, the situation isn’t really that much different in other parts of
the world either. Canada has journeyed 493 days without a 20% slide,
and our Chart 5 on the next page details the situation in Europe and
emerging markets.
Source: Ned Davis Research
Within Europe, the United Kingdom has gone a mind blowing 1,307
days without a 20% correction. Maybe Mark Carney and the Bank of
England have figured out how to completely eliminate the business
cycle after all. Regardless, anyone with money invested in UK stocks
should be prepared for a downturn – it’s only a matter of time.
Elsewhere in Europe, the majority of national markets experienced
their 20% decline less than 2 years ago. As all markets are positively
correlated, a sharp decline in the US or the UK will absolutely affect
Europe as well. But in general, European markets are not as
vulnerable to the correction relative to others.
Within emerging markets, South Africa, Malaysia and Mexico are all
on borrowed time and investors in these markets should also prepare
for a bump in the road.
Quite frankly, current markets everywhere are due for a significant
decline with some likely falling a lot more than others. However,
despite a rash of reasons to be fearful of the much touted market
crash – conditions are not present to suggest we are on the precipice
of something evil.
Both market technical data and market sentiment data have not
reached extreme levels, and until this occurs the probability of the
big one hitting remain low.
Market conditions always change and evolve, yet as of today we
would view a 20% market correction as an excellent time to buy.
15. 14
Chart 5: Days without significant correction
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Europe Emerging Markets
Vulnerable to
significant correction
Vulnerable to
any correction
May 2014 Wind of change
Source: Ned Davis Research
16. 15
May 2014 Wind of change
Our Strategy
Over the last 5 years, the world’s largest central banks have flooded
the global economy with unprecedented amounts of stimulus. Yet,
the expected acceleration in economic growth has not occurred.
This distinct lack of flow through to the real economy, should be at
the top of the list of concerns for any serious investment manager.
On a regular basis, we are seeing evidence of significant shifts in
economic, political and social behavior – all of which are a result of
the lingering debt crisis and the responses by policy makers.
As these trends continue to increase in severity; private capital and
wealth will relocate to regions and markets that are perceived to be
safe havens.
Longer-term, we expect the US Dollar to appreciate considerably
relative to all other currencies. We also expect stock markets and
high-end real estate to absorb a lot of private capital as well.
Our research currently suggests that the stock market is due for a
correction and it could be significant if it occurs. However, this would
likely be the last significant correction prior to another strong run up
in stock prices. As we have clearly stated before, the attraction to
stock markets is not due to strong economic growth, but rather due
to inherent risks in global bond markets in Europe and elsewhere.
Longer-term, we are patiently awaiting the opportunity to
significantly increase our allocation to equity markets. While in the
short-term, we will also remain patient and await for signals from our
research to identify whether to increase, or decrease our exposure to
volatile markets.
As always, we’d be pleased to speak with anyone about our
investment views. We also encourage our readers to share our global
market outlook with those who they think may find it of interest.
Please feel to contact:
John Corney at johncorney@IceCapAssetManagement.com or
Keith Dicker at keithdicker@IceCapAssetManagement.com.
Thank you for sharing your time with us.
Markets are still being driven by central bank policy
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