The future of robot assisted task, how robots will enter your daily life, flexible robots in production, interaction between humans and robots

1. Potential of
human-robot interaction
for manufacturing
Prof dr ir Bram Vanderborght
bram.vanderborght@vub.ac.be
!
Robotics Research Group
Vrije Universiteit Brussel
2/5/14
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2. Ageing population
Change 1990 to 2009
1990
(1) Excluding French overseas departments.
(2) Data may be affected by the change of population definition in 2008.
(3) 2008 instead of 2009.
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind)
In 1990
In 2060
Persons 65+ à
13,7 %
Persons
Figure 2.8: Population structure by major age groups, EU-27 (1) 65+ à
Persons 85+ à
Persons 85+ à
(% of total population)
3,1 %
3.1
3.3
4.5
10.6
100
12.3
12.7
66.8
67.2
à increase with 250% k
à increase with 400% k
5.7
6.9
14.4
8.9
11.0
12.1
16.6
18.0
17.8
17.8
75
50
30%
12%
67.2
64.6
61.9
59.2
57.1
56.0
25
19.5
17.2
15.6
15.4
14.5
14.0
14.1
14.0
1990
2000
2009
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
0
In 1990
67% of population
support population
80+ years
65-79 years
15-64 years
0-14 years
In 2060
Only 56% of population
support population
Working
(1) Excluding French overseas departments; 2020 to 2060 data are EUROPOP2008 convergence scenario.
Source: Eurostat (demo_pjanind and proj_08c2150p)
population shall
- Work harder
- Work more
To realize the same
Today 40 hout/week
!2
à In 2060:2/5/14
50 hour/week pag.

3. Increasing life expectancy
In 1960
Life expectancy
Belgium
69,66 years
Av. EU
67,72 years
In 2008 (50 years later)
Life expectancy
Belgium
80,10 years
Av. EU
78,66 years
At age of 65
Belgium
13,52 years
Av. EU
13,99 years
At age of 65
Belgium
19,50 years
Av. EU
18,46 years
!
Source:
HEIDI
data
tool
EU-­‐Commission
!
For Belgium this is an increase of 18,2% over 50 years !
1/5 longer life!!!
2/5/14
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4. Increased need for assistance
The need for Personal Assistance
with everyday activities increases with age.
!
% of persons needing assistance with
everyday activities by age
Not only functional weakness, but mobility also affected by lower motor
skills due to stroke or neurological misfunction
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5. Increased health cost
For EU by 2050:
!
healthcare spending increase
with 25%
For Flanders by 2050 :
• will be confronted much
stronger
• its demographic pattern counts
more elderly people
• And Healthcare costs are
higher in comparison with
other EU countries
!
• Today = 11,1% of GDP
= 36,8 billion EUR
Source: EU White Paper “Together for Health: A Strategic Approach for the EU 2008-2013”.
Health is the
greatest
wealth!
!
• Increase of 25%
= 9,2 billion EUR/year
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6. ?
2/5/14
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7. Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life,
business, and the global economy
Policy makers and societies need to prepare for
future technology. To do this well, they will need a
clear understanding of how technology might shape
the global economy and society over the coming
decades.
!
Since the Industrial Revolution, technology has had
a unique role in powering growth and transforming
economies.
!
The McKinsey Global Institute set out to identify
which of these technologies could have a massive
economically disruptive impact between now and
2025.
2/5/14
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8. Study Gartner
• 2013
Hype
Cycle
on
evolving
relationship
Combine
the
best
of
the
two
worlds
Machines
between
human
and
machine.
• precision
• repeatability
• 3
trends:
– Augmenting
humans
with
technology
– Machines
replacing
humans
– Humans
and
machines
working
alongside
each
other
• 3D
jobs
• …
Humans
• creativity
• problem
solving
• dexterity
• …
!
Human
robot
interaction
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9. Foresight study of Fraunhofer about the future
technology domains Germany next 10-15 years
2/5/14
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10. Robots are about to enter our daily life
Zora
clip
Reinout
Verbeke
Cyberlegs
AMPFoot
Probo
2/5/14
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11. Need for a strong manufacturing industry
Manufacturing industry:
20% employment / 80% export
Indirect employment: 2-5 jobs
Manufacturing industry essential for other industries
(without product, nothing to transport).
Manufacturing industry under pressure (Ford Genk,…)
Innovation required
!
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12. Manufacturing industry:
outflow to low cost countries
path manufacturing in low cost countries
Japan - South Korea - China - Vietnam - …
!
Labor costs:
US: $23.32/hour
Germany: 25.80$/hour
China: 1.36$/hour
!
• Not sustainable
• Loss of innovation
• Loss of jobs
!
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13. Trends towards reshoring
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14. Industrial robots
International Federation of Robotics (IFR)
2012: 1.15 million operational industrial robots
2015: 1.58 million robots (+36%)
China will become the biggest robotics market
in 2013 (to keep up competition).
Robots sold to automotive OEMs +47%
Robots sold to automotive component suppliers +21%
Robots create jobs
(and with better quality)
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15. Limitations industrial robots
•
•
•
•
Big and heavy
Expensive
Dangerous
Requires skilled persons
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16. New generation co-workers
•
•
•
•
•
•
Safety, faceless operation
Co-worker: social and physical human-robot interaction
Intuitive learning by demonstration
Suitable for unskilled employers
Suitable for low volumes
Cheap
2/5/14
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17. Co-workers
Cheap 22.000 $ - 3,4$/hour
Suitable for SME
Learning by demonstration
suitable for small quantities
Safe: work with humans
!
!
UBR-1
35.000$
Unbounded Robotics
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20. A roadmap for US Robotics
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21. !
“Robotics is the fastest growing industry in the world,
poised to become the largest in the next decade.”!
!
That’s the opening quote from a new report by Littler Mendelson, the world’s
largest labor and employment law firm. The Report titled: “The Transformation
of the Workplace Though Robotics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Automation”
2/5/14
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22. Example Brussels airport
Staff
in
airport
walks
20km
a
day
!
!
!
!
Luggage
handler
moves
18
ton
a
day
How
can
they
work
longer?
Use
of
assistive
robotics
2/5/14
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23. Exoskeletons
Knexo VUB
ALTACRO VUB
2/5/14
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24. Conclusion
• Robots are about to enter new applications
• Answer
to
societal
challenges
• Create
new
economic
markets
• Robots
will
be
in
Factories
of
the
Future
• Robots
will
be
Products
of
the
Future
• Robots will be everywhere in different forms and
applications, impact bigger than the internet
• But still research necessary
• Solve in a interdisciplinary research effort
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