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2012
 THE
 FUTURE
 OF

OPEN SOURCE
 The Open Source Leadership
 Panel at OSBC
 May 21, 2012
2


THE LEADERSHIP PANEL




     Tim Yeaton              Tom Erickson   Michael Skok       Ryan Garner              Gil Yehuda
          CEO                    CEO         General Partner   VP, Dir.-to-Consumer   Dir. of Open Source
     @black_duck_sw            @tom_eric       @mjskok               Services         and Open Standards
                                                                  @ryanTgarner            @gyehuda




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
3


AGENDA


                  Markets

                  Community

                  Investment & Innovation



                  LOOK FOR LIVE VOTING!




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
4


OPEN SOURCE COLLABORATORS




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
5


SURVEY RESPONSES




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
6


SURVEY RESPONDENTS


        Vendors              Non-Vendors




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
7


SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ TITLES




                                      Architect/Engineer
                                                                  Software
            VP/Director
                                                             Engineer/Developer


                                          Systems
                IT
                                                             President/GM          IT
      CEO/Founder/                                                            Management/IT
          Co-                                                                     Staff
                                                              Marketing/
     Founder/Principal                                      Advertising, PR
                                                                              Educator

                             Line of Business              Sales/Business
         CIO/CTO/                Manager
                                                            Development         Professional
         CSO/COO/                                                                 Services
                                                                              (Lawyer/Investor)
         CFO/CMO                    Analyst
                                                               Director
                                                               Non-IT
                                                                 VP/




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
8


AGENDA


                  Markets

                  Community

                  Innovation & Investment




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
9


OSS DEPLOYED IN YOUR ORGANIZATION

                       Open Source deployment is reaching a
                       tipping point

          Open source deployment           Open source will make up
          has reached >75%                 51%–75% of deployment




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
10


VENDORS VS. NON-VENDOR COMPANIES
OSS DEPLOYMENT IN 5 YEARS
                      50%


                            45%
                      40%
     % of Responses




                      30%                31%               30%
                                               29%
                                                                             Vendor
                                  23%                                        Non Vendor
                      20%
                                                                       18%
                                                     14%
                      10%
                                                                 10%


                      0%
                            Over 75%    51%-75%      26%-50%     Up to 25%


                                  OSS as a % of Deployed Code

FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
11


WHAT % OF SOFTWARE PURCHASES WILL BE OSS

   IN     5 YEARS?
                                              3%
                                           increase




                             50% or more on OSS
FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
12


OPEN SOURCE TRENDS DRIVING INNOVATION




           Adoption of open source into           Enterprise adoption of
             non-technical segments                   open source

                       42%                             40%
                       Enterprise adoption of OSS is rated most important
                       by companies with >1,000 employees


FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
13


WHAT MAKES OSS ATTRACTIVE?


        2009                    2010             2011              2012
                                               Freedom from
      Lower costs             Lower costs
                                              VENDOR lock-in    Freedom from
                                                               VENDOR lock-in
                              Freedom from
    Superior security                          Lower costs
                             VENDOR lock-in


      Freedom from           Rapid pace of
                                                Flexibility
     VENDOR lock-in           innovation
                                                                Lower costs


                                                                  Quality



FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
14


TOP BARRIERS TO OPEN SOURCE SELECTION



                              48%

                                    35%


                             47%




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
15


INDUSTRIES MOST IMPACTED BY OSS IN 2012




          44%
           Data
                                  23%
                             Health/Medical/Life
                                                        12%
                                                   Financial Services
      Management                 Sciences




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
16


CHARACTERISTICS THAT MAKE INDUSTRIES
LIKEY TO BE IMPACTED BY OSS


          51%                50%                46%
                                           Software development
   Profit margins/ability    Technology   is an essential strategic
      to invest in IT          centric            process




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
17


THE VIRTUOUS CYCLE – INNOVATION & OSS

      OSS

                                   Innovation
                      600,000+ OSS projects
                 100+ billion lines of code
  10 million person-years of work

                             “
                             …we are living in a golden age of open source innovation, with many of the
                                   most exciting computing ideas…being explored through [FOSS].

                                                                              Glyn Moody, H-Online.com
                                                                                                  (March 2012)

Source:

FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
18


REVENUE STRATEGIES THAT CREATE THE
MOST VALUE FOR OPEN SOURCE VENDORS




                               52%
                                               41%            40%

                                                                           SaaS

                              Support      Service Supprt
                                              Service       Value-Added
                             Subcription      Support       Subscription

FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
19


AGENDA


                  Markets

                  Community

                  Innovation & Investment




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
20


FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF OSS PROJECTS


                OSS PROJECTS


                       Size of
                       community          19%

                       Availability of
                       commercial support   23%


                       Project maturity           43%

FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
21


FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF OSS PROJECTS
                                                        Non-Vendor

                OSS PROJECTS


                       Size of
                       community          19%             20%

                       Availability of
                       commercial support   23%           21%


                       Project maturity           43%     46%

FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
22


INDUSTRY CASE STUDY: AUTOMOTIVE
What is Your Company’s Relationship to Using Open Source Software in Products?


    The Study                                    The Results:
                                                           We use it                            59%
    CONDUCTED BY:

                                              We are evaluating use                      35%           OSS has arrived
                                                                                                        in automotive
                                                                                                        software
                                                  We contribute to it              21%
                                                                                                        development

          Prof, Dr. Dirk Riehle
                                                    We do not use it              15%                  Management
          Head of the Open Source Institute                                                             and control of
          University of Erlangen-Nuremberg
                                              We have started one or                                    OSS lags
                                                      more projects
                                                                             9%
                                                                                                        adoption
                                              We are head of one or
                                                      more projects
                                                                             6%

                                                                        0%    20%        40%   60%




Source:

FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
23


HIRING: WHAT ASPECT OF OSS EXPERIENCE IS
MOST IMPORTANT?
                         Experience
                         with a variety   Code
                         of projects      contributions

                             35%             28%




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
24


AGENDA


                  Markets

                  Community

                  Innovation & Investment




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
25


SIGNIFICANT TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION FROM
NEW PROJECTS IN THE OSS COMMUNITY

                                                     Cloud 40%




          Mobile Apps 19%




                             Mobile Enterprise 15%
FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
26


 OPEN SOURCE DRIVES MOBILE INNOVATION
  New Mobile OSS Projects               Share of Projects*

                  >18,000 cumulative
                   projects

                  10,000 new in 2011
                   alone!




                                                   * Based on OSS projects that specify a mobile platform


                                                Android gaining momentum,
                                                 share > 70%
                                                iOS share declined, but number
                                                 of projects increased

Source:

 FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
27


OSS INVESTMENTS BY THE NUMBERS
2011     $674.9m                         $10.1M      $192.7M
               49%                        48.5%       63.3%

             Dollars           Deals     Avg. Deal     Seed,
            Invested         Completed     Size       Series A

2010      $452.8M               73       $6.8M       $118.7M

                               1.4%

                                72


FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
28


HOT OSS COMPANIES




              2010           2011   2012


FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
29




             Quality           Innovation

                             = Growth

FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
30


WITH GROWTH COMES…

                              Revenue



                                        Enterprise
                                        Adoption




                  Super-
                Communities




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
31


THANK YOU! OPEN SOURCE COLLABORATORS




FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
32


FIND OUT MORE

           http://www.northbridge.com/software    http://www.opensourcedelivers.com/




    Contact:
      Michael J. Skok: mjskok@northbridge.com
      Tim Yeaton:        tyeaton@blackducksoftware.com



FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012

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2012 Future of Open Source - 6th Annual Survey results

  • 1. 2012 THE FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE The Open Source Leadership Panel at OSBC May 21, 2012
  • 2. 2 THE LEADERSHIP PANEL Tim Yeaton Tom Erickson Michael Skok Ryan Garner Gil Yehuda CEO CEO General Partner VP, Dir.-to-Consumer Dir. of Open Source @black_duck_sw @tom_eric @mjskok Services and Open Standards @ryanTgarner @gyehuda FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 3. 3 AGENDA Markets Community Investment & Innovation LOOK FOR LIVE VOTING! FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 5. 5 SURVEY RESPONSES FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 6. 6 SURVEY RESPONDENTS Vendors Non-Vendors FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 7. 7 SURVEY RESPONDENTS’ TITLES Architect/Engineer Software VP/Director Engineer/Developer Systems IT President/GM IT CEO/Founder/ Management/IT Co- Staff Marketing/ Founder/Principal Advertising, PR Educator Line of Business Sales/Business CIO/CTO/ Manager Development Professional CSO/COO/ Services (Lawyer/Investor) CFO/CMO Analyst Director Non-IT VP/ FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 8. 8 AGENDA Markets Community Innovation & Investment FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 9. 9 OSS DEPLOYED IN YOUR ORGANIZATION Open Source deployment is reaching a tipping point Open source deployment Open source will make up has reached >75% 51%–75% of deployment FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 10. 10 VENDORS VS. NON-VENDOR COMPANIES OSS DEPLOYMENT IN 5 YEARS 50% 45% 40% % of Responses 30% 31% 30% 29% Vendor 23% Non Vendor 20% 18% 14% 10% 10% 0% Over 75% 51%-75% 26%-50% Up to 25% OSS as a % of Deployed Code FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 11. 11 WHAT % OF SOFTWARE PURCHASES WILL BE OSS IN 5 YEARS? 3% increase 50% or more on OSS FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 12. 12 OPEN SOURCE TRENDS DRIVING INNOVATION Adoption of open source into Enterprise adoption of non-technical segments open source 42% 40% Enterprise adoption of OSS is rated most important by companies with >1,000 employees FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 13. 13 WHAT MAKES OSS ATTRACTIVE? 2009 2010 2011 2012 Freedom from Lower costs Lower costs VENDOR lock-in Freedom from VENDOR lock-in Freedom from Superior security Lower costs VENDOR lock-in Freedom from Rapid pace of Flexibility VENDOR lock-in innovation Lower costs Quality FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 14. 14 TOP BARRIERS TO OPEN SOURCE SELECTION 48% 35% 47% FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 15. 15 INDUSTRIES MOST IMPACTED BY OSS IN 2012 44% Data 23% Health/Medical/Life 12% Financial Services Management Sciences FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 16. 16 CHARACTERISTICS THAT MAKE INDUSTRIES LIKEY TO BE IMPACTED BY OSS 51% 50% 46% Software development Profit margins/ability Technology is an essential strategic to invest in IT centric process FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 17. 17 THE VIRTUOUS CYCLE – INNOVATION & OSS OSS Innovation 600,000+ OSS projects 100+ billion lines of code 10 million person-years of work “ …we are living in a golden age of open source innovation, with many of the most exciting computing ideas…being explored through [FOSS]. Glyn Moody, H-Online.com (March 2012) Source: FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 18. 18 REVENUE STRATEGIES THAT CREATE THE MOST VALUE FOR OPEN SOURCE VENDORS 52% 41% 40% SaaS Support Service Supprt Service Value-Added Subcription Support Subscription FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 19. 19 AGENDA Markets Community Innovation & Investment FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 20. 20 FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF OSS PROJECTS OSS PROJECTS Size of community 19% Availability of commercial support 23% Project maturity 43% FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 21. 21 FACTORS INFLUENCING CHOICE OF OSS PROJECTS Non-Vendor OSS PROJECTS Size of community 19% 20% Availability of commercial support 23% 21% Project maturity 43% 46% FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 22. 22 INDUSTRY CASE STUDY: AUTOMOTIVE What is Your Company’s Relationship to Using Open Source Software in Products? The Study The Results: We use it 59% CONDUCTED BY: We are evaluating use 35%  OSS has arrived in automotive software We contribute to it 21% development Prof, Dr. Dirk Riehle We do not use it 15%  Management Head of the Open Source Institute and control of University of Erlangen-Nuremberg We have started one or OSS lags more projects 9% adoption We are head of one or more projects 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% Source: FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 23. 23 HIRING: WHAT ASPECT OF OSS EXPERIENCE IS MOST IMPORTANT? Experience with a variety Code of projects contributions 35% 28% FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 24. 24 AGENDA Markets Community Innovation & Investment FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 25. 25 SIGNIFICANT TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION FROM NEW PROJECTS IN THE OSS COMMUNITY Cloud 40% Mobile Apps 19% Mobile Enterprise 15% FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 26. 26 OPEN SOURCE DRIVES MOBILE INNOVATION New Mobile OSS Projects Share of Projects*  >18,000 cumulative projects  10,000 new in 2011 alone! * Based on OSS projects that specify a mobile platform  Android gaining momentum, share > 70%  iOS share declined, but number of projects increased Source: FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 27. 27 OSS INVESTMENTS BY THE NUMBERS 2011 $674.9m $10.1M $192.7M 49% 48.5% 63.3% Dollars Deals Avg. Deal Seed, Invested Completed Size Series A 2010 $452.8M 73 $6.8M $118.7M 1.4% 72 FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 28. 28 HOT OSS COMPANIES 2010 2011 2012 FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 29. 29 Quality Innovation = Growth FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 30. 30 WITH GROWTH COMES… Revenue Enterprise Adoption Super- Communities FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 31. 31 THANK YOU! OPEN SOURCE COLLABORATORS FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012
  • 32. 32 FIND OUT MORE http://www.northbridge.com/software http://www.opensourcedelivers.com/ Contact: Michael J. Skok: mjskok@northbridge.com Tim Yeaton: tyeaton@blackducksoftware.com FUTURE OF OPEN SOURCE 2012