In a recent study (Koutsoyiannis et al., On the credibility of climate predictions, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53 (4), 671–684, 2008), the credibility of climate predictions was assessed based on comparisons with long series of observations.Extending this research, which compared the outputs of various climatic models to temperature and precipitation observations from 8 stations around the globe, we test the performance of climate models at over 50 additional stations. Furthermore, we make comparisons at a large sub-continental spatial scale after integrating modelled and observed series.
This document summarizes challenges in accessing, preparing, and using climate model data for research. It notes that a large volume of climate model data is being produced but is difficult to access and use, particularly for non-climate scientists, as the data is on different grids, may need bias correction, and requires significant time and effort to prepare. Several papers are cited that found most researchers spend over 80% of their time preparing climate data rather than using it. The document discusses ongoing work to address these issues through initiatives like bias correction and the climate data factory project to help process and provide access to model outputs.
The document describes the challenges of working with climate model data, including large volumes of data, difficulties finding and accessing data from different models and grids, and the need for bias correction and quality control. It then introduces the Climate Data Factory as an innovative service that addresses these issues by re-mapping, bias adjusting, quality controlling and simplifying access to raw CMIP5 and CORDEX climate model data to make it easier to use for impact researchers, adaptation practitioners, and consulting engineers.
This document describes The Climate Data Factory, a service that aims to make climate projection data easier to access and use for non-climate scientists. It notes that preparing and working with raw climate model data is currently difficult and time-consuming for most users due to issues like different grids, bias, and data volume. The Climate Data Factory addresses these problems by providing re-gridded, bias-corrected, quality-controlled climate model projections that can be easily searched and accessed through their website. This is intended to help various audiences like impact researchers, adaptation practitioners, and consulting engineers make more effective use of climate model data.
Future Trend of Mongolian Permafrost Distribution Env. Engineers
This document summarizes a study on the future trend of Mongolian permafrost distribution. The study used a logistic regression model to examine the relationship between observed permafrost distribution and climate data from 1961-1990. It then predicted future permafrost distribution based on climate change scenarios from two general circulation models for the years 2040, 2080, and 2090. The model results indicate that observed permafrost distributions are strongly correlated with past temperature increases and that permafrost areas will continue to decrease in the forecast years according to the climate change scenarios.
The Efficiency of Meteorological Drought Indices for Drought Monitoring and E...IJMER
International Journal of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER) is Peer reviewed, online Journal. It serves as an international archival forum of scholarly research related to engineering and science education.
International Journal of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER) covers all the fields of engineering and science: Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Civil Engineering, Chemical Engineering, Computer Engineering, Agricultural Engineering, Aerospace Engineering, Thermodynamics, Structural Engineering, Control Engineering, Robotics, Mechatronics, Fluid Mechanics, Nanotechnology, Simulators, Web-based Learning, Remote Laboratories, Engineering Design Methods, Education Research, Students' Satisfaction and Motivation, Global Projects, and Assessment…. And many more.
An Attempt To Use Interpolation to Predict Rainfall Intensities tor Crash Ana...IJMERJOURNAL
ABSTRACT: This study uses different interpolation techniques to predict rainfall intensity at locationsthat are not directly located near a rainfall gauges. The goal of being able to interpolate the rainfall intensity is to study its impact on traffic crashes. To perform the study, a collection of rainfall gauges in Alabama were used as subject locations where rainfall intensity was predicted from surrounding gauges, while also providing validation data to compare the predictions. Essentially, the actual rainfall intensities at existing gauges were interpolated using nearby gauges and the results were analyzed.The interpolation techniques used in the study included proximal, averaging and a distance weighted average. The results of the study indicated that none of the interpolation methodologies were sufficient to accurately predict the rainfall intensity values any significant distance from the actual gauges.
Gaps, needs and options–A design study for long-term greenhouse gas observati...ILRI
Poster prepared by V. Jorch, M. Acosta, J. Beck, A. Bombelli, C. Brümmer, K. Butterbach-Bahl, B. Fiedler, E. Grieco, J. Helmschrot, W. Hugo, T. Johannessen, A. Körtzinger, W. Kutsch, A. López-Ballesteros, L. Merbold, E. Salmon, M. Saunders and B. Scholes for the SEACRIFOG project.
The document discusses climate change projections from climate models and CMIP5 scenarios. It provides examples of CMIP5 projections for Turkey, describes the CORDEX program for regional climate modeling, and notes some benefits and limitations of using climate model results, including that they allow for informed decision making but also have uncertainties due to limitations in observations and model representations of reality.
This document summarizes challenges in accessing, preparing, and using climate model data for research. It notes that a large volume of climate model data is being produced but is difficult to access and use, particularly for non-climate scientists, as the data is on different grids, may need bias correction, and requires significant time and effort to prepare. Several papers are cited that found most researchers spend over 80% of their time preparing climate data rather than using it. The document discusses ongoing work to address these issues through initiatives like bias correction and the climate data factory project to help process and provide access to model outputs.
The document describes the challenges of working with climate model data, including large volumes of data, difficulties finding and accessing data from different models and grids, and the need for bias correction and quality control. It then introduces the Climate Data Factory as an innovative service that addresses these issues by re-mapping, bias adjusting, quality controlling and simplifying access to raw CMIP5 and CORDEX climate model data to make it easier to use for impact researchers, adaptation practitioners, and consulting engineers.
This document describes The Climate Data Factory, a service that aims to make climate projection data easier to access and use for non-climate scientists. It notes that preparing and working with raw climate model data is currently difficult and time-consuming for most users due to issues like different grids, bias, and data volume. The Climate Data Factory addresses these problems by providing re-gridded, bias-corrected, quality-controlled climate model projections that can be easily searched and accessed through their website. This is intended to help various audiences like impact researchers, adaptation practitioners, and consulting engineers make more effective use of climate model data.
Future Trend of Mongolian Permafrost Distribution Env. Engineers
This document summarizes a study on the future trend of Mongolian permafrost distribution. The study used a logistic regression model to examine the relationship between observed permafrost distribution and climate data from 1961-1990. It then predicted future permafrost distribution based on climate change scenarios from two general circulation models for the years 2040, 2080, and 2090. The model results indicate that observed permafrost distributions are strongly correlated with past temperature increases and that permafrost areas will continue to decrease in the forecast years according to the climate change scenarios.
The Efficiency of Meteorological Drought Indices for Drought Monitoring and E...IJMER
International Journal of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER) is Peer reviewed, online Journal. It serves as an international archival forum of scholarly research related to engineering and science education.
International Journal of Modern Engineering Research (IJMER) covers all the fields of engineering and science: Electrical Engineering, Mechanical Engineering, Civil Engineering, Chemical Engineering, Computer Engineering, Agricultural Engineering, Aerospace Engineering, Thermodynamics, Structural Engineering, Control Engineering, Robotics, Mechatronics, Fluid Mechanics, Nanotechnology, Simulators, Web-based Learning, Remote Laboratories, Engineering Design Methods, Education Research, Students' Satisfaction and Motivation, Global Projects, and Assessment…. And many more.
An Attempt To Use Interpolation to Predict Rainfall Intensities tor Crash Ana...IJMERJOURNAL
ABSTRACT: This study uses different interpolation techniques to predict rainfall intensity at locationsthat are not directly located near a rainfall gauges. The goal of being able to interpolate the rainfall intensity is to study its impact on traffic crashes. To perform the study, a collection of rainfall gauges in Alabama were used as subject locations where rainfall intensity was predicted from surrounding gauges, while also providing validation data to compare the predictions. Essentially, the actual rainfall intensities at existing gauges were interpolated using nearby gauges and the results were analyzed.The interpolation techniques used in the study included proximal, averaging and a distance weighted average. The results of the study indicated that none of the interpolation methodologies were sufficient to accurately predict the rainfall intensity values any significant distance from the actual gauges.
Gaps, needs and options–A design study for long-term greenhouse gas observati...ILRI
Poster prepared by V. Jorch, M. Acosta, J. Beck, A. Bombelli, C. Brümmer, K. Butterbach-Bahl, B. Fiedler, E. Grieco, J. Helmschrot, W. Hugo, T. Johannessen, A. Körtzinger, W. Kutsch, A. López-Ballesteros, L. Merbold, E. Salmon, M. Saunders and B. Scholes for the SEACRIFOG project.
The document discusses climate change projections from climate models and CMIP5 scenarios. It provides examples of CMIP5 projections for Turkey, describes the CORDEX program for regional climate modeling, and notes some benefits and limitations of using climate model results, including that they allow for informed decision making but also have uncertainties due to limitations in observations and model representations of reality.
The Global Risk Forum GRF Davos aims to reduce vulnerability to risks and disasters through three pillars: the Risk Academy for knowledge sharing and education, International Disaster and Risk Conferences for meetings on risk management, and an online Platform for Networks to exchange knowledge. The main goals are to bridge science and practice, promote worldwide knowledge exchange, provide solutions and good practices in risk management and climate change adaptation, and manage a decision-maker network. The International Disaster and Risk Conferences in Davos bring over 1200 participants from over 90 countries together to discuss key issues in 99 sessions over 3 days.
A distributed physically based model to predict timing and spatial distributi...Grigoris Anagnostopoulos
Shallow landslides induced by rainfall are among the most costly and deadly natural hazards, which mostly afflict mountainous and steep terrain regions. Crucial role in the initiation of these events is attributed to subsurface hydrology and how changes in the soil water regime can affect significantly the soil shear strength. Rainfall infiltration results in a decrease of matric suction, which is followed by a rapid drop in apparent cohesion. Especially on steep slopes in shallow soils, this loss of shear strength can lead to failure even in the unsaturated zone before positive water pressures are developed. Evidently, fundamental elements for an efficient prediction of rainfall-induced landslides are the interdependence of shear strength and suction, as well as the temporal evolution of suction during the wetting and drying process. A distributed physically based model, raster-based and continuous in space and time, was developed in order to investigate the interactions between surface and subsurface hydrology and shallow landslides initiation. In this effort emphasis is given to the modelling of the temporal evolution of hydrological processes and their triggering effects to soil slip occurrences. Specifically, the 3D variably saturated flow through soil and the resulting water balance is modelled using the Cellular Automata concept. Evapotranspiration, root water uptake and soil hydraulic hysteresis are taken into account for the continuous simulation of soil water content during storm and inter-storm periods. A multidimensional limit equilibrium analysis is utilized for the computation of the stability of every cell by taking into account the basic principles of unsaturated soil mechanics. A test case of a serious and diffused in space landslide event in Switzerland is investigated for the verification of the model.
This document discusses using hydrological models to improve landslide prediction. It summarizes the state of mapping shallow landslides using hydrological models and compares simple versus complex hydrological models. It then focuses on how the shape of the bedrock surface influences subsurface water flow dynamics and pore pressure buildup using the Panola Trench Hillslope as a case study. Simulation results show how pore pressures and saturation levels increase more rapidly with a steeper hillslope gradient, affecting slope stability.
Understanding hydrological processes to improve landslide model prediction. The document discusses using simple versus complex hydrological models to map shallow landslides. Simple models consider steady-state hydrological conditions but do not account for unsaturated soil properties. Complex models use 3D representations and transient flow but are more computationally intensive. The role of bedrock shape on subsurface flow dynamics is also examined. Improving the performance of simple models by incorporating distributed wetness index concepts and removing steady-state assumptions may help better predict landslides.
An introductory presentation of my PhD research covering rainfall-induced landslides, subsurface hydrology, unsaturated soil mechanics, Ground Penetration Radars and some experimental data from a field campaign that I conducted.
The document discusses how landslide activation is influenced by slope shape, antecedent soil moisture conditions, and rainfall intensity. It uses numerical models to simulate shallow landslides on hillslopes with different shapes (parallel, convergent, divergent) and curvature (straight, convex, concave) under varying rainfall intensities (low, medium, high) and antecedent wetness levels (dry, wet). The models couple a hydrological model with an infinite slope stability model to analyze the evolution of safety factors over time under rainfall events.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group I on the physical science basis of climate change as it relates to Africa. It finds that human activities have unequivocally warmed the climate, with impacts including more frequent and intense extreme weather events. For Africa, it projects stronger increases in dangerous heat stress, droughts, and extreme sea level rise by 2050 compared to the 1995-2014 reference period. However, the assessment also notes some limitations for the Africa region due to lack of data and research.
L’aria è elemento essenziale per la vita dell’uomo.La “mission” di questo blog è quello di soddisfare le esigenze di ricerca e di conoscenza delle tecnologie che possono permettere alle persone di respirare ogni giorno un’aria più pulita e sana, migliorando la qualità e la durata della loro vita.
The document proposes establishing a GEO Carbon and GHG Initiative (GEO-C) to coordinate global carbon cycle and greenhouse gas observations and analysis. GEO-C would provide an overarching framework to integrate different observing systems and networks, optimize their design, and ensure data is accessible to support climate policy and mitigation/adaptation efforts. Its goals are to establish a comprehensive, sustained global observational system and provide decision-makers with the carbon and GHG data and information they need. The Initiative is proposed to start in 2016 with preparatory work, and transition to full implementation from 2017-2025 if endorsed and adequately funded.
This document discusses a term paper presentation on recent developments, challenges, and opportunities related to climate data. It outlines the objectives and significance of studying this topic, and reviews literature on data sparsity in Africa due to declining weather stations, issues with data accessibility, and quality challenges. Recent opportunities include increased data from satellites, reanalysis models, and climate simulations, though data gaps remain an obstacle for climate research and applications in Africa.
ESTO NO ES UNA LECTURA - ES UN TEXTO DE APOYO
Este es el resumen de políticas para de la comisión que analizo el Cambio Climatico en Copenhagen en 2007. Este informe es ENORME, pero tiene este breve resumen para personas que hagan políticas. Si les interesa, hojeenlo y descarguenlo. No hay puntaje ni actividad para este texto; pero es UTILISIMO y HERMOSO. Puede ser de mucha utilidad en los debates.
mapc
Agroclimatology is the application of climatology and meteorology principles to agricultural systems. It aims to help with strategic and tactical planning decisions for agriculture as well as agrometeorological forecasting. The scope of agroclimatology includes questions about which crops to plant, when to plant, irrigation needs, and how climate impacts agriculture. It takes a holistic, interdisciplinary approach and involves accurately describing the physical environment and biological responses, interpreting responses in terms of environment, making forecasts, and developing services to support agricultural decisions.
This document provides an overview of the European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions (EUCAARI). The key achievements of the 4-year EUCAARI project include: (1) a comprehensive database with a year of aerosol observations across Europe, (2) new measurements in four developing countries, (3) an airborne database of aerosols and clouds over Europe, and (4) advanced modeling tools to study aerosol processes from nano to global scales and their effects. These achievements have improved understanding of aerosol radiative forcing and air quality-climate interactions and can inform European environmental policy.
ArticleThe action research casestudy approach Amethod.docxdavezstarr61655
Article
The action research case
study approach: A
methodology for complex
challenges such as
sustainability in aviation
Peter McManners
Geography Department, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, UK
Abstract
Action research was chosen to investigate the interface between economic and envir-
onmental factors in the aviation sector. A variant of the methodology was developed
which combined the ethos of action research with the prescriptive mechanism of case
study analysis. This was found to be particularly appropriate for the situation
encountered, where the parameters of the central problem are clearly defined and
an outline solution can be identified but how to persuade stakeholders of a way forward
is uncertain. The research had three phases beginning with the preparatory phase which
examined the situation in depth to be able to propose a feasible solution. The second
phase involved seeking ideas from another sector with similar characteristics. The third
phase consisted of engagement with stakeholders across six stakeholder groups. It is
suggested that the ‘action research case study’ is particularly suited to the challenge of
sustainability and may have wider utility.
Keywords
Action research case study, sustainability, sustainable aviation, action research, action
research methodology
Introduction
The context of the research reported here is an investigation into how to embed
sustainability within policy. Aviation was selected because it is widely regarded as
one of the most difficult areas of application of sustainability (Gössling & Upham,
2009; Nijkamp, 1999). Here the focus is on the interface between economic and
Action Research
2016, Vol. 14(2) 201–216
! The Author(s) 2015
Reprints and permissions:
sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav
DOI: 10.1177/1476750315597979
arj.sagepub.com
Corresponding author:
Peter McManners, Geography Department, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AH, UK.
Email: [email protected]
environmental policy requiring trade-offs between, on the one hand the benefits of
fast affordable transport facilitating trade and tourism; on the other, it is a signifi-
cant source of CO2 emissions implicated in causing climate change. The ‘action
research case study’ proved to be effective in this context and could be useful in
other studies which have similar characteristics.
Aviation has come a long way since the first sustained powered flight by the
Wright Brothers in 1903. It was propelled by a simple and inefficient engine they
had built themselves. For one flight, on one day, over a century ago the pollution
hardly mattered. Since that day, aviation has moved forward in leaps and bounds
and now provides a high capacity and reliable global air transport infrastructure.
The aircraft are vastly better and the aviation industry is hugely successful in
connecting people and acting as an enabler for the global economy.
Alongside this success there is the downside of .
This document describes the design and implementation of a low cost mini weather monitoring system. The system uses an Arduino Mega 2560 microcontroller along with sensors to measure temperature, humidity, pressure, and light intensity. It also approximates dew point temperature and calculates altitude. Measurements taken with the system over a period of 8 days were analyzed and found to have less than 2% error when compared to data from official weather sources, validating the accuracy of the low cost system. The system provides an affordable option for weather monitoring that could help address the lack of weather data availability in many rural areas.
Democratising climate science: how climate model emulators add robustness and...ipcc-media
The document discusses the use of physically-based climate model emulators in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Emulators are simpler models that can project climate variables like global temperature in an agile and computationally efficient way. They are calibrated using process understanding from complex climate models. Emulators were used extensively in the AR6 to produce probabilistic projections, fill gaps, and extend simulations not performed by complex models. Key results in the AR6 Summary for Policymakers and chapters relied on emulator outputs. Emulators also supported cross-working group integration of the climate science assessment.
This document discusses the challenges of conveying climate change science to policymakers and the public. It describes how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established to provide objective information on climate change through comprehensive assessments. The IPCC assessments involve hundreds of scientists and reviewers and have transformed the international debate on climate change. However, regional and local impacts of climate change are still not fully understood due to differences from global models and the complex interactions of climate with local environmental and social systems.
Climate Information for Near-Term Preparedness/Risk Managementipcc-media
The document discusses a COP27 event on near-term climate information for preparedness and risk management. It includes presentations on advances from the IPCC AR6 and WCRP on near-term climate prediction, assessment of risks, and leveraging climate information for better risk management. There will be panels on regional climate assessment from the IPCC AR6 and on using climate information for adaptation. The interactive atlas in the IPCC AR6 provides regional synthesis of changes in climate impact drivers with confidence levels to support climate risk assessment and decision making.
Dr. William Lahoz is a senior scientist at the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU) who has over 25 years of experience in Earth observation. He currently leads data assimilation activities at NILU, supervising seven people in their work related to land, air quality, atmospheric composition, and future satellite missions. Prior to NILU, he co-founded the UK's Data Assimilation Research Centre. Dr. Lahoz has collaborated extensively with organizations in Europe and North America, organizing workshops and visiting institutions to discuss satellite missions and the use of observations for air quality monitoring. He has over 65 peer-reviewed publications and has edited several books and special journal issues related to data assimilation and Earth observation.
The document discusses how climate change impacts policy and decision making by providing scientific information and data, outlines how the EPA facilitates interactions between climate science and policy through research programs and reports summarizing the state of knowledge on climate impacts, and describes how Met Éireann is moving from regional to global climate modeling as part of an international consortium to provide more accurate climate projections and information.
The 2022 WMO State of Climate Services report focuses on the issue of energy, a subject that continues to dominate discussion and debate as it effects every single community, business, sector and economy, in all parts of the world.
Reaching net zero by 2050 will mean a complete transformation of our global energy system, with a switch to lower emissions electricity production and increased energy efficiency at the heart of the worldwide response. But the transition to clean energy calls for investment in improved weather, water and climate services that can be used to ensure our energy infrastructure is resilient to climate-related shocks and inform measures to increase energy efficiency across multiple sectors.
Using data, analysis, and a series of case studies, the report illustrates and explains how countries – from Italy to Tajikistan – can improve their energy infrastructure, resilience and security through better climate services, supported by sustainable investments
The Global Risk Forum GRF Davos aims to reduce vulnerability to risks and disasters through three pillars: the Risk Academy for knowledge sharing and education, International Disaster and Risk Conferences for meetings on risk management, and an online Platform for Networks to exchange knowledge. The main goals are to bridge science and practice, promote worldwide knowledge exchange, provide solutions and good practices in risk management and climate change adaptation, and manage a decision-maker network. The International Disaster and Risk Conferences in Davos bring over 1200 participants from over 90 countries together to discuss key issues in 99 sessions over 3 days.
A distributed physically based model to predict timing and spatial distributi...Grigoris Anagnostopoulos
Shallow landslides induced by rainfall are among the most costly and deadly natural hazards, which mostly afflict mountainous and steep terrain regions. Crucial role in the initiation of these events is attributed to subsurface hydrology and how changes in the soil water regime can affect significantly the soil shear strength. Rainfall infiltration results in a decrease of matric suction, which is followed by a rapid drop in apparent cohesion. Especially on steep slopes in shallow soils, this loss of shear strength can lead to failure even in the unsaturated zone before positive water pressures are developed. Evidently, fundamental elements for an efficient prediction of rainfall-induced landslides are the interdependence of shear strength and suction, as well as the temporal evolution of suction during the wetting and drying process. A distributed physically based model, raster-based and continuous in space and time, was developed in order to investigate the interactions between surface and subsurface hydrology and shallow landslides initiation. In this effort emphasis is given to the modelling of the temporal evolution of hydrological processes and their triggering effects to soil slip occurrences. Specifically, the 3D variably saturated flow through soil and the resulting water balance is modelled using the Cellular Automata concept. Evapotranspiration, root water uptake and soil hydraulic hysteresis are taken into account for the continuous simulation of soil water content during storm and inter-storm periods. A multidimensional limit equilibrium analysis is utilized for the computation of the stability of every cell by taking into account the basic principles of unsaturated soil mechanics. A test case of a serious and diffused in space landslide event in Switzerland is investigated for the verification of the model.
This document discusses using hydrological models to improve landslide prediction. It summarizes the state of mapping shallow landslides using hydrological models and compares simple versus complex hydrological models. It then focuses on how the shape of the bedrock surface influences subsurface water flow dynamics and pore pressure buildup using the Panola Trench Hillslope as a case study. Simulation results show how pore pressures and saturation levels increase more rapidly with a steeper hillslope gradient, affecting slope stability.
Understanding hydrological processes to improve landslide model prediction. The document discusses using simple versus complex hydrological models to map shallow landslides. Simple models consider steady-state hydrological conditions but do not account for unsaturated soil properties. Complex models use 3D representations and transient flow but are more computationally intensive. The role of bedrock shape on subsurface flow dynamics is also examined. Improving the performance of simple models by incorporating distributed wetness index concepts and removing steady-state assumptions may help better predict landslides.
An introductory presentation of my PhD research covering rainfall-induced landslides, subsurface hydrology, unsaturated soil mechanics, Ground Penetration Radars and some experimental data from a field campaign that I conducted.
The document discusses how landslide activation is influenced by slope shape, antecedent soil moisture conditions, and rainfall intensity. It uses numerical models to simulate shallow landslides on hillslopes with different shapes (parallel, convergent, divergent) and curvature (straight, convex, concave) under varying rainfall intensities (low, medium, high) and antecedent wetness levels (dry, wet). The models couple a hydrological model with an infinite slope stability model to analyze the evolution of safety factors over time under rainfall events.
The document summarizes key findings from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group I on the physical science basis of climate change as it relates to Africa. It finds that human activities have unequivocally warmed the climate, with impacts including more frequent and intense extreme weather events. For Africa, it projects stronger increases in dangerous heat stress, droughts, and extreme sea level rise by 2050 compared to the 1995-2014 reference period. However, the assessment also notes some limitations for the Africa region due to lack of data and research.
L’aria è elemento essenziale per la vita dell’uomo.La “mission” di questo blog è quello di soddisfare le esigenze di ricerca e di conoscenza delle tecnologie che possono permettere alle persone di respirare ogni giorno un’aria più pulita e sana, migliorando la qualità e la durata della loro vita.
The document proposes establishing a GEO Carbon and GHG Initiative (GEO-C) to coordinate global carbon cycle and greenhouse gas observations and analysis. GEO-C would provide an overarching framework to integrate different observing systems and networks, optimize their design, and ensure data is accessible to support climate policy and mitigation/adaptation efforts. Its goals are to establish a comprehensive, sustained global observational system and provide decision-makers with the carbon and GHG data and information they need. The Initiative is proposed to start in 2016 with preparatory work, and transition to full implementation from 2017-2025 if endorsed and adequately funded.
This document discusses a term paper presentation on recent developments, challenges, and opportunities related to climate data. It outlines the objectives and significance of studying this topic, and reviews literature on data sparsity in Africa due to declining weather stations, issues with data accessibility, and quality challenges. Recent opportunities include increased data from satellites, reanalysis models, and climate simulations, though data gaps remain an obstacle for climate research and applications in Africa.
ESTO NO ES UNA LECTURA - ES UN TEXTO DE APOYO
Este es el resumen de políticas para de la comisión que analizo el Cambio Climatico en Copenhagen en 2007. Este informe es ENORME, pero tiene este breve resumen para personas que hagan políticas. Si les interesa, hojeenlo y descarguenlo. No hay puntaje ni actividad para este texto; pero es UTILISIMO y HERMOSO. Puede ser de mucha utilidad en los debates.
mapc
Agroclimatology is the application of climatology and meteorology principles to agricultural systems. It aims to help with strategic and tactical planning decisions for agriculture as well as agrometeorological forecasting. The scope of agroclimatology includes questions about which crops to plant, when to plant, irrigation needs, and how climate impacts agriculture. It takes a holistic, interdisciplinary approach and involves accurately describing the physical environment and biological responses, interpreting responses in terms of environment, making forecasts, and developing services to support agricultural decisions.
This document provides an overview of the European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions (EUCAARI). The key achievements of the 4-year EUCAARI project include: (1) a comprehensive database with a year of aerosol observations across Europe, (2) new measurements in four developing countries, (3) an airborne database of aerosols and clouds over Europe, and (4) advanced modeling tools to study aerosol processes from nano to global scales and their effects. These achievements have improved understanding of aerosol radiative forcing and air quality-climate interactions and can inform European environmental policy.
ArticleThe action research casestudy approach Amethod.docxdavezstarr61655
Article
The action research case
study approach: A
methodology for complex
challenges such as
sustainability in aviation
Peter McManners
Geography Department, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, UK
Abstract
Action research was chosen to investigate the interface between economic and envir-
onmental factors in the aviation sector. A variant of the methodology was developed
which combined the ethos of action research with the prescriptive mechanism of case
study analysis. This was found to be particularly appropriate for the situation
encountered, where the parameters of the central problem are clearly defined and
an outline solution can be identified but how to persuade stakeholders of a way forward
is uncertain. The research had three phases beginning with the preparatory phase which
examined the situation in depth to be able to propose a feasible solution. The second
phase involved seeking ideas from another sector with similar characteristics. The third
phase consisted of engagement with stakeholders across six stakeholder groups. It is
suggested that the ‘action research case study’ is particularly suited to the challenge of
sustainability and may have wider utility.
Keywords
Action research case study, sustainability, sustainable aviation, action research, action
research methodology
Introduction
The context of the research reported here is an investigation into how to embed
sustainability within policy. Aviation was selected because it is widely regarded as
one of the most difficult areas of application of sustainability (Gössling & Upham,
2009; Nijkamp, 1999). Here the focus is on the interface between economic and
Action Research
2016, Vol. 14(2) 201–216
! The Author(s) 2015
Reprints and permissions:
sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav
DOI: 10.1177/1476750315597979
arj.sagepub.com
Corresponding author:
Peter McManners, Geography Department, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6AH, UK.
Email: [email protected]
environmental policy requiring trade-offs between, on the one hand the benefits of
fast affordable transport facilitating trade and tourism; on the other, it is a signifi-
cant source of CO2 emissions implicated in causing climate change. The ‘action
research case study’ proved to be effective in this context and could be useful in
other studies which have similar characteristics.
Aviation has come a long way since the first sustained powered flight by the
Wright Brothers in 1903. It was propelled by a simple and inefficient engine they
had built themselves. For one flight, on one day, over a century ago the pollution
hardly mattered. Since that day, aviation has moved forward in leaps and bounds
and now provides a high capacity and reliable global air transport infrastructure.
The aircraft are vastly better and the aviation industry is hugely successful in
connecting people and acting as an enabler for the global economy.
Alongside this success there is the downside of .
This document describes the design and implementation of a low cost mini weather monitoring system. The system uses an Arduino Mega 2560 microcontroller along with sensors to measure temperature, humidity, pressure, and light intensity. It also approximates dew point temperature and calculates altitude. Measurements taken with the system over a period of 8 days were analyzed and found to have less than 2% error when compared to data from official weather sources, validating the accuracy of the low cost system. The system provides an affordable option for weather monitoring that could help address the lack of weather data availability in many rural areas.
Democratising climate science: how climate model emulators add robustness and...ipcc-media
The document discusses the use of physically-based climate model emulators in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. Emulators are simpler models that can project climate variables like global temperature in an agile and computationally efficient way. They are calibrated using process understanding from complex climate models. Emulators were used extensively in the AR6 to produce probabilistic projections, fill gaps, and extend simulations not performed by complex models. Key results in the AR6 Summary for Policymakers and chapters relied on emulator outputs. Emulators also supported cross-working group integration of the climate science assessment.
This document discusses the challenges of conveying climate change science to policymakers and the public. It describes how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established to provide objective information on climate change through comprehensive assessments. The IPCC assessments involve hundreds of scientists and reviewers and have transformed the international debate on climate change. However, regional and local impacts of climate change are still not fully understood due to differences from global models and the complex interactions of climate with local environmental and social systems.
Climate Information for Near-Term Preparedness/Risk Managementipcc-media
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3. 2. Related questions
General questions
• Is climate deterministically predictable?
• Do global circulation models (GCMs) produce credible predictions of future
climate for horizons of 50, 100 or even more years?
• Can such predictions serve as a basis to support decisions for important
economic and social policies?
• Can the continental or global climatic projections be credible if the distributed
information, from which the aggregated information is derived, is not?
• Are geographically distributed GCM predictions credible enough in order to
be used in further studies at regional scales, e.g. to assess the freshwater
future availability?
Specific questions addressed in this paper
• How well do current GCMs reproduce past climate (temperature and
precipitation) at a local scale?
• Does integration of local predictions at a sub‐continental scale improve the
GCM performance in terms of reproducing past climate?
5. 4. IPCC models and simulation runs (TAR & AR4)
•
•
IPCC model outputs:
– Three TAR and three AR4 general circulation models have been selected.
Simulation runs:
– For the TAR models we used the SRES IS92a scenario, most runs of which are
based on historical GCM input data prior to 1989 and extended using scenarios
for 1990 and beyond. For such runs, the choice of scenario is irrelevant for test
periods up to 1989, while for later periods, there is no significant difference
between different scenarios for the same model.
– For the AR4 models we used the 20C3M scenario (the only relevant with this
study), generated from the outputs of late 19th and 20th century simulations from
coupled ocean‐atmosphere models, to help assess past climate change.
Main characteristics of the GCMs used in the study (identical to Koutsoyiannis et al., 2008).
IPCC Name
Developed by
Resolution (o) Grid points,
report
in latitude
latitudes ×
and longitude longitudes
TAR ECHAM4/OPYC3 Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology & Deutsches
2.8 × 2.8
64 × 128
Klimarechenzentrum, Hamburg, Germany
TAR CGCM2
Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis
3.7 × 3.7
48 × 96
TAR HADCM3
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
2.5 × 3.7
73 × 96
AR4
CGCM3-T47
Canadian Centre for Climate (as above)
3.7 × 3.7
48 × 96
AR4
ECHAM5-OM
Max-Planck-Institute (as above)
1.9 × 1.9
96 × 192
AR4
PCM
National Centre for Atmospheric Research, USA
2.8 × 2.8
64 × 128
8. 7. Graphical comparisons and characteristic examples
• The majority of models (both TAR and AR4) are totally irrelevant to the observed
temperature and precipitation time series, and they fail to predict the historical
fluctuations at the annual and climatic time scale.
• One of the worst model performances is observed in Durban (left panel).
• One of the best model performances is observed in De Bilt (right panel) if the
modified (“homogenized”) time series is used in the comparison (the original
observed time series, also shown in figure, is very different both from models and
the modified series).
CGCM3-20C3M-T47
PCM-20C3M
22.5
Historical
fluctuation
22.0
21.5
21.0
20.5
20.0
19.5
19.0
1850
Modelled
“trend”
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
Observed (unmodified)
HADCM3-A2
ECHAM5-20C3M
Annual Mean Temperature (oC)
Annual Mean Temperature (oC)
Observed
1970
1990
2010
Observed (modified)
ECHAM4-GG
CGCM2-A2
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Plots of observed and modelled annual (doted lines) and 30‐year moving average (continuous lines)
temperature time series at Durban, South Africa (left) and De Bilt, Netherlands (right).
9. 8. Synoptic statistical comparisons at annual and climatic
time scales – Average values for all models and locations
Climatic time scale
Annual time scale
Temperature
Correlation Efficiency
Temperature
Correlation Efficiency
Annual mean
0.12
‐5.2
Annual mean
0.33
‐89.0
Maximum monthly
0.06
‐5.3
Maximum monthly
0.21
‐118.5
Minimum monthly
0.03
‐3.7
Minimum monthly
0.18
‐117.4
Annual amplitude
0.01
‐4.1
Annual amplitude
0.03
‐107.4
Seasonal mean (DJF)
0.05
‐3.9
Seasonal mean (DJF)
0.24
‐92.0
Seasonal mean (JJA)
0.07
‐7.5
Seasonal mean (JJA)
0.21
‐180.4
Precipitation
Correlation Efficiency
Precipitation
Correlation Efficiency
Annual mean
0.00
‐3.0
Annual mean
0.02
‐125.9
Maximum monthly
0.01
‐1.3
Maximum monthly
‐0.02
‐51.4
Minimum monthly
0.00
‐167.4
Minimum monthly
0.01
‐5456.7
Seasonal mean (DJF)
0.00
‐3.8
Seasonal mean (DJF)
0.05
‐208.0
Seasonal mean (JJA)
‐ .00
0
‐12.2
Seasonal mean (JJA)
‐0.04
‐1064.1
10. 9. Comparison of variability metrics for temperature
CGCM3-20C3M-T47
PCM-20C3M
ECHAM5-20C3M
CGCM3-20C3M-T47
PCM-20C3M
ECHAM5-20C3M
CGCM2-A2
HADCM3-A2
ECHAM4-GG
CGCM2-A2
HADCM3-A2
ECHAM4-GG
2.00
St Dev of Modeled Temperature
Series (Annual Mean Temperature)
Hurst Coef of Modeled Temperature
Series (Annual Mean Temperature)
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00
St Dev Of Observed Tem perature Series
Hurst Coef Of Observed Tem perature Series
5.50
St Dev of Modeled Temperature
Series (Annual Temp Amplitude )
Hurst Coef of Modeled Temperature
Series (Annual Temp Amplitude)
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50
Hurst Coef Of Observed Tem perature Series
St Dev Of Observed Tem perature Series
Scatter plots of Hurst
coefficient (left) and
standard deviation
(right) of observed vs.
modelled mean annual
temperature
(underestimation in
74% of cases for Hurst
and 70% for standard
deviation).
Scatter plots of Hurst
coefficient (left) and
standard deviation
(right) of observed vs.
modelled annual
temperature amplitude
(underestimation in 69%
of cases for Hurst and
68% for standard
deviation).
11. 10. Comparison of variability metrics for precipitation
PCM-20C3M
ECHAM5-20C3M
CGCM3-20C3M-T47
PCM-20C3M
ECHAM5-20C3M
CGCM2-A2
HADCM3-A2
ECHAM4-GG
CGCM2-A2
HADCM3-A2
ECHAM4-GG
1.00
600
St Dev of Modeled Precipitation
Series (Annual Precipitation)
Hurst Coef of Modeled Precipitation
Series (Annual Precipitation)
CGCM3-20C3M-T47
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
500
400
300
200
100
0
0.10
0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
0
0.90
300
400
500
600
150
St Dev of Modeled Precipitation
Series (Max Monthly Precipitation)
Hurst Coef of Modeled Precipitation
Series (Max Monthly Precipitation)
200
St Dev Of Observed Precipitation Series
Hurst Coef Of Observed Precipitation Series
0.80
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.20
100
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
Hurst Coef Of Observed Precipitation Series
Scatter plots of Hurst
coefficient (left) and
standard deviation
(right) of observed
vs. modelled annual
precipitation
(underestimation in
79% of cases for
Hurst and 89% for
standard deviation).
0.90
125
100
75
50
25
0
0
25
50
75
100
125
St Dev Of Observed Precipitation Series
150
Scatter plots of Hurst
coefficient (left) and
standard deviation
(right) of observed vs.
modelled maximum
monthly precipitation
(underestimation in
67% of cases for Hurst
and 95% for standard
deviation).
13. 12. General observations on point analysis
1.8
Obserbed
St Dev (Temperature)
1.6
CGCM2-A2
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
400
Obserbed
350
St Dev (Precipitation)
• All examined long historical records exhibit
large over‐year variability (i.e. long‐term
fluctuations), with no systematic signatures
across the different locations/climates.
• At the monthly scale, although significant bias
may be present, GCMs generally reproduce
the broad climatic behaviours at the different
locations and the sequence of wet/dry or
warm/cold periods. This is expected, since
models represent the seasonal variations of
climatic variables, and also account for key
factors such as latitude (see figure) and
proximity to the sea.
• Yet, the performance of GCMs remains poor,
regarding all statistical indicators at the
seasonal, annual and climatic time scales; in
most cases the observed variability metrics
(standard deviation and Hurst coefficient),
extremes (annual minima and maxima) and
long‐term fluctuations during the 20th century
are underestimated.
CGCM2-A2
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Latitude
Standard deviation of the annual mean
temperature (up) and annual precipitation
(low) with respect to the latitude for the
observed time series and the CGCM‐A2
series (northern hemisphere stations).
15. 14. Spatial integration and adjustment of observed series
13.0
NOAA
12.5
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.5
10.0
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
900
2010
940
Thiessen
NOAA
850
890
800
840
750
790
700
740
650
690
600
640
550
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
Annual Precipitation - NOAA (mm)
Annual Mean Temperature (oC)
Thiessen
Annual Precipitation -Thiessen (mm)
• The Thiessen integrated temperature
series is adjusted for elevation by
estimating (via linear regression of
mean annual temperature against
elevation) a temperature gradient of
θ = −0.0038°C/m and using the mean
elevation of the contiguous USA, H =
745 m, and the weighted average of
station elevations, Hm = 670 m.
• A similar correction was impossible for
precipitation, since no correlation
between precipitation and elevation
was found.
• The areal estimations for temperature
are very close to those of NOAA.
Precipitation slightly differs (by 40 mm).
590
2010
Comparison between areal time series of
NOAA (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
/oa/climate /research/cag3/cag3.html) and
the areal time series derived by the Thiessen
method (and adjusted for elevation for T).
16. 15. Spatial integration of GCM outputs and comparison
with observed series
• The weights wi were estimated on the basis of the influence area of each grid
point i.
• The influence area of each grid point is a rectangle whose “vertical”
(perpendicular to the equator) side is proportional to (φ2−φ1)/2 and its
“horizontal” side is proportional to cosφ, where φ is the latitude of each grid
point, and φ2 and φ1 are the latitudes of the adjacent “horizontal” grid lines.
• The resulting weighting coefficient is: wi = (φi2 – φi1) cosφi
CGCM3-20C3M-T47
PCM-20C3M
ECHAM5-20C3M
Observed
CGCM3-20C3M-T47
PCM-20C3M
ECHAM5-20C3M
1200
16.0
Annual Precipitation (mm)
Annual Mean Temperature (oC)
Observed
15.0
14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
10.0
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
Observed and modelled areal temperature and precipitation, on annual and climatic scales.
2010
17. 16. Reproduction of seasonal characteristics and extremes
Observed
CGCM3-20C3M-T47
PCM-20C3M
Seasonal Precipitation DJF(mm)
Max Monthly Temperature (oC)
26.0
25.0
24.0
23.0
22.0
21.0
20.0
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Seasonal Precipitation JJA (mm)
Min Monthly Temperature (oC)
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
1850
Observed
ECHAM5-20C3M
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
Observed vs. modelled temperature
maxima (up) and minima (down) on
annual and climatic time scales.
2010
CGCM3-20C3M-T47
PCM-20C3M
ECHAM5-20C3M
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
310
290
270
250
230
210
190
170
150
1850
Observed vs. modelled seasonal
precipitation (up winter; down summer)
on annual and climatic time scales.