The document discusses issues related to sustainable economic growth in Botswana. It defines sustainable growth as continuing high economic growth that improves living standards, reduces poverty, and preserves the environment. Botswana has experienced high growth for decades, but faces challenges in diversifying its economy beyond mining and reducing inequality. The sustainability of Botswana's growth depends on strengthening other sectors, increasing investment and exports, and preparing for declining mineral revenues in the long run.
The Protifolon series is brought to you by Bangladesh Online Research Network (BORN) www.bdresearch.org an information and knowledge intermediation initiative of D.Net in colloboration with Institute of Development Studies (IDS), University of Sussex, UK. (visit http://blog.masumbillah.net for more)
The document analyzes projections for the global banking industry out to 2050. It finds that emerging economies' banking sectors will significantly outgrow developed economies' due to accelerating economic shifts. By 2050, leading emerging economies' (E7) domestic banking assets and profits could exceed those of developed nations (G7) by 50%. China may surpass the US as the largest banking sector by 2023. India also has strong long-term growth potential to become the third largest by 2050. The financial crisis accelerated these trends, bringing forward dates when emerging economies overtake developed ones in banking sector size.
The document provides an overview of First Bank of Nigeria's results for the nine months ended September 2010. It highlights a number of positive results including year-to-date deposit and lending growth, improving profitability with a return on equity of 14.1%, and a strong and liquid balance sheet. The bank is focusing on growth strategies like international expansion and diversification into investment banking and insurance. It is also working to improve service excellence through initiatives such as centralizing branch processes and optimizing channels to better serve customers. Overall the results show satisfactory performance in challenging economic conditions.
FMP Market Themes and Outlook January 2013kmyoung1
This document provides a market outlook and investment themes for 2013 from FMPartners. It summarizes current economic conditions and sees modest GDP growth in the US. The main investment themes highlighted are global fiscal concerns, divergent growth between developed and emerging markets, credit dislocation, and inflationary pressures. The market outlook projects the S&P 500 will end 2013 around 1561 based on analyst forecasts. Key drivers of growth are seen as the ongoing US housing recovery, employment gains, manufacturing expansion, and domestic energy production. Equities are assessed as fairly valued currently based on dividend and debt yield comparisons. Risks in fixed income include the constrained credit environment and global deleveraging.
The monthly fact sheet provides an overview of the local Malaysian market in February 2010. Equity markets ended higher for the month, though small cap stocks underperformed. Ten of ten sectors were positive, led by telecommunications, consumer staples, and financials. Fixed income markets were flat due to lack of catalysts. The GDP grew strongly in Q4 2009 and inflation rose slightly. The outlook remains positive, expecting further equity market gains supported by strong economic growth, though deteriorating global growth or policy mistakes pose risks.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the risk management market and salaries in 2008. It discusses the effects of the credit crunch beginning in late 2007, which led to a more uncertain market. While recruitment was strong in early 2007, the credit crunch slowed hiring by the end of the year. The report predicts the full impact on risk recruitment will be seen in mid-2008 and salaries may stabilize or decline as the market adjusts.
Russia is now the sixth largest economy globally and offers significant opportunities for foreign investment and M&A across many sectors. Rising incomes and consumer spending are driving demand for branded goods, attracting global consumer companies to acquire well-positioned local brands. Germany has been particularly successful in Russia through long-term investments and commitments to training and logistics. Membership in the WTO will further diversify the economy and benefit sectors like automobiles, manufactured goods, and telecoms by reducing trade barriers and import duties.
Structural Packaging Summit: Using Consumer Insights to Satisfy the CustomerSonoco
Most of us are experts in our respective industries, but how do you become an expert in what the consumer wants? Jack Sanders, president and CEO-elect of Sonoco, will discuss Sonoco’s work to satisfy its customers using consumer insight research, and how this was successful in a recent collaboration with Pepperidge Farm on the brand’s popular Baked Naturals® Cracker Chip snack.
The Protifolon series is brought to you by Bangladesh Online Research Network (BORN) www.bdresearch.org an information and knowledge intermediation initiative of D.Net in colloboration with Institute of Development Studies (IDS), University of Sussex, UK. (visit http://blog.masumbillah.net for more)
The document analyzes projections for the global banking industry out to 2050. It finds that emerging economies' banking sectors will significantly outgrow developed economies' due to accelerating economic shifts. By 2050, leading emerging economies' (E7) domestic banking assets and profits could exceed those of developed nations (G7) by 50%. China may surpass the US as the largest banking sector by 2023. India also has strong long-term growth potential to become the third largest by 2050. The financial crisis accelerated these trends, bringing forward dates when emerging economies overtake developed ones in banking sector size.
The document provides an overview of First Bank of Nigeria's results for the nine months ended September 2010. It highlights a number of positive results including year-to-date deposit and lending growth, improving profitability with a return on equity of 14.1%, and a strong and liquid balance sheet. The bank is focusing on growth strategies like international expansion and diversification into investment banking and insurance. It is also working to improve service excellence through initiatives such as centralizing branch processes and optimizing channels to better serve customers. Overall the results show satisfactory performance in challenging economic conditions.
FMP Market Themes and Outlook January 2013kmyoung1
This document provides a market outlook and investment themes for 2013 from FMPartners. It summarizes current economic conditions and sees modest GDP growth in the US. The main investment themes highlighted are global fiscal concerns, divergent growth between developed and emerging markets, credit dislocation, and inflationary pressures. The market outlook projects the S&P 500 will end 2013 around 1561 based on analyst forecasts. Key drivers of growth are seen as the ongoing US housing recovery, employment gains, manufacturing expansion, and domestic energy production. Equities are assessed as fairly valued currently based on dividend and debt yield comparisons. Risks in fixed income include the constrained credit environment and global deleveraging.
The monthly fact sheet provides an overview of the local Malaysian market in February 2010. Equity markets ended higher for the month, though small cap stocks underperformed. Ten of ten sectors were positive, led by telecommunications, consumer staples, and financials. Fixed income markets were flat due to lack of catalysts. The GDP grew strongly in Q4 2009 and inflation rose slightly. The outlook remains positive, expecting further equity market gains supported by strong economic growth, though deteriorating global growth or policy mistakes pose risks.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the risk management market and salaries in 2008. It discusses the effects of the credit crunch beginning in late 2007, which led to a more uncertain market. While recruitment was strong in early 2007, the credit crunch slowed hiring by the end of the year. The report predicts the full impact on risk recruitment will be seen in mid-2008 and salaries may stabilize or decline as the market adjusts.
Russia is now the sixth largest economy globally and offers significant opportunities for foreign investment and M&A across many sectors. Rising incomes and consumer spending are driving demand for branded goods, attracting global consumer companies to acquire well-positioned local brands. Germany has been particularly successful in Russia through long-term investments and commitments to training and logistics. Membership in the WTO will further diversify the economy and benefit sectors like automobiles, manufactured goods, and telecoms by reducing trade barriers and import duties.
Structural Packaging Summit: Using Consumer Insights to Satisfy the CustomerSonoco
Most of us are experts in our respective industries, but how do you become an expert in what the consumer wants? Jack Sanders, president and CEO-elect of Sonoco, will discuss Sonoco’s work to satisfy its customers using consumer insight research, and how this was successful in a recent collaboration with Pepperidge Farm on the brand’s popular Baked Naturals® Cracker Chip snack.
The document provides an analysis of the current COVID-19 impacted market situation and provides recommendations on where to invest. It notes that while the market has rebounded from its lows, there is still uncertainty around how the pandemic and economic situation will evolve. It evaluates factors like earnings pressure, macroeconomic conditions, liquidity and sentiment. Both positives like stimulus measures and negatives like uncertainty are discussed. Recommendations include reviewing one's portfolio, having contingency funds and insurance, and investing through mutual funds for diversification and professional management during this volatile period.
2008:Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for...econsultbw
The document discusses macroeconomic policy options for Botswana in response to global inflation and economic slowdown. It outlines Botswana's recent growth experience and reviews monetary, exchange rate, trade, and fiscal policy choices. It analyzes the impact of high global food and fuel prices on Botswana and recommends both short-term policy responses and long-term structural reforms to address current challenges and support economic objectives of diversification, openness and competitiveness. The document also examines Botswana's exchange rate and monetary policy framework and combinations, and whether adjustments are needed for long-term sustainability.
Indian Markets - Current Perspective and Investment OutlookMarwar Capital
A quick report in light of these turbulent markets to provide an on ground update on India, its potential impact by nCovid-19 and our investment outlook.
The document provides a monthly market outlook and investment directions for June 2012. It summarizes that the global economy recovery is threatened by issues in Europe. The outlook expects slow but positive global growth if policymakers address fiscal issues, but risks remain from a eurozone crisis or lack of US fiscal policy action. The recommendations are for a defensive portfolio positioning including high-quality dividend stocks, defensive sectors, and minimum volatility funds. Fixed income preferences include US investment grade and municipal bonds.
The document provides an overview and analysis of India's political and economic outlook. It can be summarized as follows:
1) The recent election resulted in a stable Congress-led coalition and political stability, which is good for continued reforms and affordable residential development.
2) Macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong with GDP growth estimates of 6.2% in FY2009-2010 and inflation expected to remain benign.
3) Demand for affordable housing is strong and growing, underpinned by a large housing shortage, with many large developers focusing on affordable projects.
This document provides a weekly overview and outlook from Wealth Management Research, including:
- Performance summaries for various asset classes and recommendations on strategy.
- Updates on highlighted investment themes covering topics like dividend stocks, fixed income, and stock lists.
- Forecasts for markets, economies, interest rates, currencies and commodities.
- A note on a recently published US economics report discussing signs of a cyclical recovery.
Domestic Equity Market - What to expect in May 2021Vinod Prajapati
Gaurav Mehta of SBI MF, Nimesh Chandan of Canara Robeco MF, Prasanna Pathak of Taurus MF and Satish Ramanathan of JM financial MF share their views on the equity market.
This is the brand new 'Affiliate Programme' launched by JuliusHuett today, Monday 8th April 2013. This Programme is for those who would like to join us on our journey to becoming a truly unique, specialised consultancy for those wanting to enter the Southeast Asia markets, more precisely in INDONESIA.
Dr. Michael Hasenstab provides an analysis of factors that will differentiate the recoveries of various countries from the global economic crisis. He believes emerging markets will recover more quickly than developed markets due to emerging markets' stronger domestic economies and less reliance on exports, more effective policy responses, and avoidance of issues like high public debt and private sector leverage plaguing developed nations. Recent economic trends support this view, with emerging markets showing stronger growth, job creation, and capital inflows. Hasenstab also discusses opportunities in foreign exchange and bond markets stemming from divergence in recoveries.
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlooksumguyatvt
Uncertainty overshadows an improving economy. The economy continues to recover from the worse downturn since the Great Depression, which caused the S&P 500 to lose more than 1/2 of its value between October 2007 and March 2009. Although things are better now, this recovery has taken longer than many of us would have liked. As a result, I think we\’re still at least a little nervous about the future and uncertain about how to prepare our portfolios to face what may be down the road. In this presentation, I discuss what we at Wells Fargo Advisors see ahead for the economy, the domestic and international equity markets, fixed income investments, and commodities.
Global Financial Crisis - Impact on Singapore and Policy Measures Taken to co...Vikas Sharma
The document summarizes the global financial crisis and its impact on Singapore. It discusses how Singapore was impacted through declines in its banking sector, trade, foreign direct investment, and real economy. It also describes Singapore's policy responses which included guaranteeing bank deposits, monetary policy shifts, and a large fiscal stimulus package to preserve jobs, stimulate lending, and support businesses and households. The assessment is that unlike other countries, Singapore maintained monetary stability while implementing swift, customized policy measures to mitigate short-term impacts without damaging long-term prospects.
Bcg value creation in a low growth economy file59590managing1
The document discusses how developed economies are likely to experience an extended period of below-average economic growth due to factors such as the nature of the recent financial crisis, high consumer debt levels in countries like the US, and the winding down of government stimulus programs. This low-growth environment will have significant implications for how companies create shareholder value, with capital gains becoming less important and cash payouts to shareholders becoming more critical. Companies will need to find ways to thread the needle by combining increased cash returns with above-average but profitable growth in the challenging economic conditions.
2010 Q1: Feature on the 2010 Monetary Policy Statement and Budgeteconsultbw
The document summarizes the Bifm Economic Review for the first quarter of 2010. It discusses the global economic recovery underway in early 2010, led by growth in emerging markets. While recovery is occurring, threats of a double-dip recession remain if fiscal stimulus is withdrawn too early. The document also summarizes Botswana's economic performance in 2009, with GDP contracting 6% due to declines in mining and exports. Inflation declined substantially in 2009 in Botswana but was expected to rise in early 2010. The Bank of Botswana maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance in 2009 while pursuing lower inflation targets in the future. Credit growth in Botswana turned positive in late 2009 while arrears remained elevated.
Vfb marketing slides 20130315 (english version)Nhà Lá
The document discusses the Viet Nam Bond Fund (VFMVFB) managed by VietFund Management (VFM). It provides an overview of Vietnam's macroeconomic environment, highlighting stable GDP growth, controlled inflation, increasing foreign exchange reserves, and progress on deleveraging the economy. It also outlines opportunities for fixed income investments in Vietnam, which are expected to remain attractive given their stable and decent returns relative to other asset classes. The VFMVFB aims to capitalize on these opportunities by providing exposure to Vietnam's local currency bond market.
Annual Equity Outlook 2022 | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
- The document recaps the key events and market movements of 2021, noting several major turning points that played out as anticipated, including the normalization of stimulus measures, the shift from deflation to reflation, and changing market cycles.
- Going into 2022, the environment is described as akin to shifting sands, with dynamism at its peak. An active management approach is recommended to navigate changing macros and valuations.
- Global liquidity is moderating as central banks withdraw stimulus, which has been a major driver of market changes. Inflation is rising in both emerging and developed economies.
In the second quarter of 2010, global economic growth showed signs of moderating which drove investors to shift assets into safe havens like government bonds, the US dollar, and gold. Concerns over fiscal tightening in Europe, policy changes in China, and weaker US economic data contributed to the more risk-averse investor sentiment. The Canadian market declined in the quarter but outperformed other developed markets, led higher by gold stocks, while cyclical sectors tied to global growth fared worst.
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central AsiaIMF
The May 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports on the implications for the region of global economic developments and presents key policy challenges and recommendations. A resumption of capital inflows and the rebound in crude oil prices have aided the recovery in the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The group of oil-importing countries is expected to show marginal increase in growth in response to a pickup in trade, investment, and bank credit. A key challenge for these countries is to enhance competitiveness to raise growth rates and generate employment. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, exports have begun to pick up, the decline in remittances appears to be slowing or reversing, and capital inflows have turned positive. For 2010, a recovery across the region is projected as the global economy, and in particular Russia, picks up speed. Overall, prospects for the region are improving and the regional impact of the Dubai crisis and events in Greece has been limited so far. Nevertheless, a repricing of sovereign debt cannot be excluded, adding a degree of uncertainty to the outlook.
Latin America Risks And Opportunities - Jan 2012ibarraricardo
Key risks and opportunities in Latin America for 2012. This will include an overview of our global and regional views as well as our strategy for Financial Markets in Latin American & the Caribbean.
The document summarizes Malaysia's plans to realign SMEs to support the new economic model and 10th Malaysia Plan. It discusses how SMEs are currently the backbone of the Malaysian economy but are mainly in services like wholesale and retail. Going forward, SME policies will be aligned to promote innovation, entrepreneurship, and the development of SME champions that can compete globally. The 10th Malaysia Plan focuses on unlocking SME growth potential through early-stage support, financing access, and encouraging collaboration with foreign companies.
Matter market themes and outlook april 2013kmyoung1
The document discusses several themes that may impact global financial markets: global fiscal concerns due to government debt levels, divergent growth expectations between developed and emerging markets, ongoing credit dislocation issues, inflation risks, and high equity valuations despite rising risk premiums. It recommends maintaining a diversified portfolio across global markets and asset classes, including exposure to emerging markets, real assets, and opportunistic fixed income strategies to navigate these challenges.
Growth in a time of uncertainty asset management 2015 wp for disperalMary Anne Doggett
This document summarizes research into the asset management industry in the United States from 2010 to 2015. It finds that while overall profitability was strong, averaging 28% over the period, deeper issues remained, as costs increased and productivity and pricing decreased. Only 20% of asset managers sustained above-average growth. Growth came more from acquisitions than investment performance or scale. Most firms lacked conviction to invest enough in growth, even during periods of strong profits. The report predicts trends in the industry through 2015 and provides a management agenda for positioning firms for long-term success amid ongoing uncertainty.
Private Equity Firms See Agriculture, Education, Renewable Energy and Services as Hottest Asian Investments for 2010 and beyond.
Private Equity (PE) leaders in Asia may differ in their growth expectations for 2010 and beyond, but they all agree that PE Investments will shift from traditionally attractive sectors such as Information Technology, Consumer and Retail, Financial Services and Real Estate. What are the fundamentals driving this trend and what strategies will PE firms pursue?
This presentation shows selected slides from a GIA white paper. To download the entire white paper that you are interested in, please visit http://bit.ly/GIAinsightWP
The document provides an analysis of the current COVID-19 impacted market situation and provides recommendations on where to invest. It notes that while the market has rebounded from its lows, there is still uncertainty around how the pandemic and economic situation will evolve. It evaluates factors like earnings pressure, macroeconomic conditions, liquidity and sentiment. Both positives like stimulus measures and negatives like uncertainty are discussed. Recommendations include reviewing one's portfolio, having contingency funds and insurance, and investing through mutual funds for diversification and professional management during this volatile period.
2008:Global Inflation and Economic Slowdown: Macroeconomic Policy Options for...econsultbw
The document discusses macroeconomic policy options for Botswana in response to global inflation and economic slowdown. It outlines Botswana's recent growth experience and reviews monetary, exchange rate, trade, and fiscal policy choices. It analyzes the impact of high global food and fuel prices on Botswana and recommends both short-term policy responses and long-term structural reforms to address current challenges and support economic objectives of diversification, openness and competitiveness. The document also examines Botswana's exchange rate and monetary policy framework and combinations, and whether adjustments are needed for long-term sustainability.
Indian Markets - Current Perspective and Investment OutlookMarwar Capital
A quick report in light of these turbulent markets to provide an on ground update on India, its potential impact by nCovid-19 and our investment outlook.
The document provides a monthly market outlook and investment directions for June 2012. It summarizes that the global economy recovery is threatened by issues in Europe. The outlook expects slow but positive global growth if policymakers address fiscal issues, but risks remain from a eurozone crisis or lack of US fiscal policy action. The recommendations are for a defensive portfolio positioning including high-quality dividend stocks, defensive sectors, and minimum volatility funds. Fixed income preferences include US investment grade and municipal bonds.
The document provides an overview and analysis of India's political and economic outlook. It can be summarized as follows:
1) The recent election resulted in a stable Congress-led coalition and political stability, which is good for continued reforms and affordable residential development.
2) Macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong with GDP growth estimates of 6.2% in FY2009-2010 and inflation expected to remain benign.
3) Demand for affordable housing is strong and growing, underpinned by a large housing shortage, with many large developers focusing on affordable projects.
This document provides a weekly overview and outlook from Wealth Management Research, including:
- Performance summaries for various asset classes and recommendations on strategy.
- Updates on highlighted investment themes covering topics like dividend stocks, fixed income, and stock lists.
- Forecasts for markets, economies, interest rates, currencies and commodities.
- A note on a recently published US economics report discussing signs of a cyclical recovery.
Domestic Equity Market - What to expect in May 2021Vinod Prajapati
Gaurav Mehta of SBI MF, Nimesh Chandan of Canara Robeco MF, Prasanna Pathak of Taurus MF and Satish Ramanathan of JM financial MF share their views on the equity market.
This is the brand new 'Affiliate Programme' launched by JuliusHuett today, Monday 8th April 2013. This Programme is for those who would like to join us on our journey to becoming a truly unique, specialised consultancy for those wanting to enter the Southeast Asia markets, more precisely in INDONESIA.
Dr. Michael Hasenstab provides an analysis of factors that will differentiate the recoveries of various countries from the global economic crisis. He believes emerging markets will recover more quickly than developed markets due to emerging markets' stronger domestic economies and less reliance on exports, more effective policy responses, and avoidance of issues like high public debt and private sector leverage plaguing developed nations. Recent economic trends support this view, with emerging markets showing stronger growth, job creation, and capital inflows. Hasenstab also discusses opportunities in foreign exchange and bond markets stemming from divergence in recoveries.
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlooksumguyatvt
Uncertainty overshadows an improving economy. The economy continues to recover from the worse downturn since the Great Depression, which caused the S&P 500 to lose more than 1/2 of its value between October 2007 and March 2009. Although things are better now, this recovery has taken longer than many of us would have liked. As a result, I think we\’re still at least a little nervous about the future and uncertain about how to prepare our portfolios to face what may be down the road. In this presentation, I discuss what we at Wells Fargo Advisors see ahead for the economy, the domestic and international equity markets, fixed income investments, and commodities.
Global Financial Crisis - Impact on Singapore and Policy Measures Taken to co...Vikas Sharma
The document summarizes the global financial crisis and its impact on Singapore. It discusses how Singapore was impacted through declines in its banking sector, trade, foreign direct investment, and real economy. It also describes Singapore's policy responses which included guaranteeing bank deposits, monetary policy shifts, and a large fiscal stimulus package to preserve jobs, stimulate lending, and support businesses and households. The assessment is that unlike other countries, Singapore maintained monetary stability while implementing swift, customized policy measures to mitigate short-term impacts without damaging long-term prospects.
Bcg value creation in a low growth economy file59590managing1
The document discusses how developed economies are likely to experience an extended period of below-average economic growth due to factors such as the nature of the recent financial crisis, high consumer debt levels in countries like the US, and the winding down of government stimulus programs. This low-growth environment will have significant implications for how companies create shareholder value, with capital gains becoming less important and cash payouts to shareholders becoming more critical. Companies will need to find ways to thread the needle by combining increased cash returns with above-average but profitable growth in the challenging economic conditions.
2010 Q1: Feature on the 2010 Monetary Policy Statement and Budgeteconsultbw
The document summarizes the Bifm Economic Review for the first quarter of 2010. It discusses the global economic recovery underway in early 2010, led by growth in emerging markets. While recovery is occurring, threats of a double-dip recession remain if fiscal stimulus is withdrawn too early. The document also summarizes Botswana's economic performance in 2009, with GDP contracting 6% due to declines in mining and exports. Inflation declined substantially in 2009 in Botswana but was expected to rise in early 2010. The Bank of Botswana maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance in 2009 while pursuing lower inflation targets in the future. Credit growth in Botswana turned positive in late 2009 while arrears remained elevated.
Vfb marketing slides 20130315 (english version)Nhà Lá
The document discusses the Viet Nam Bond Fund (VFMVFB) managed by VietFund Management (VFM). It provides an overview of Vietnam's macroeconomic environment, highlighting stable GDP growth, controlled inflation, increasing foreign exchange reserves, and progress on deleveraging the economy. It also outlines opportunities for fixed income investments in Vietnam, which are expected to remain attractive given their stable and decent returns relative to other asset classes. The VFMVFB aims to capitalize on these opportunities by providing exposure to Vietnam's local currency bond market.
Annual Equity Outlook 2022 | ICICI Prudential Mutual Fundiciciprumf
- The document recaps the key events and market movements of 2021, noting several major turning points that played out as anticipated, including the normalization of stimulus measures, the shift from deflation to reflation, and changing market cycles.
- Going into 2022, the environment is described as akin to shifting sands, with dynamism at its peak. An active management approach is recommended to navigate changing macros and valuations.
- Global liquidity is moderating as central banks withdraw stimulus, which has been a major driver of market changes. Inflation is rising in both emerging and developed economies.
In the second quarter of 2010, global economic growth showed signs of moderating which drove investors to shift assets into safe havens like government bonds, the US dollar, and gold. Concerns over fiscal tightening in Europe, policy changes in China, and weaker US economic data contributed to the more risk-averse investor sentiment. The Canadian market declined in the quarter but outperformed other developed markets, led higher by gold stocks, while cyclical sectors tied to global growth fared worst.
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central AsiaIMF
The May 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports on the implications for the region of global economic developments and presents key policy challenges and recommendations. A resumption of capital inflows and the rebound in crude oil prices have aided the recovery in the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa. The group of oil-importing countries is expected to show marginal increase in growth in response to a pickup in trade, investment, and bank credit. A key challenge for these countries is to enhance competitiveness to raise growth rates and generate employment. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, exports have begun to pick up, the decline in remittances appears to be slowing or reversing, and capital inflows have turned positive. For 2010, a recovery across the region is projected as the global economy, and in particular Russia, picks up speed. Overall, prospects for the region are improving and the regional impact of the Dubai crisis and events in Greece has been limited so far. Nevertheless, a repricing of sovereign debt cannot be excluded, adding a degree of uncertainty to the outlook.
Latin America Risks And Opportunities - Jan 2012ibarraricardo
Key risks and opportunities in Latin America for 2012. This will include an overview of our global and regional views as well as our strategy for Financial Markets in Latin American & the Caribbean.
The document summarizes Malaysia's plans to realign SMEs to support the new economic model and 10th Malaysia Plan. It discusses how SMEs are currently the backbone of the Malaysian economy but are mainly in services like wholesale and retail. Going forward, SME policies will be aligned to promote innovation, entrepreneurship, and the development of SME champions that can compete globally. The 10th Malaysia Plan focuses on unlocking SME growth potential through early-stage support, financing access, and encouraging collaboration with foreign companies.
Matter market themes and outlook april 2013kmyoung1
The document discusses several themes that may impact global financial markets: global fiscal concerns due to government debt levels, divergent growth expectations between developed and emerging markets, ongoing credit dislocation issues, inflation risks, and high equity valuations despite rising risk premiums. It recommends maintaining a diversified portfolio across global markets and asset classes, including exposure to emerging markets, real assets, and opportunistic fixed income strategies to navigate these challenges.
Growth in a time of uncertainty asset management 2015 wp for disperalMary Anne Doggett
This document summarizes research into the asset management industry in the United States from 2010 to 2015. It finds that while overall profitability was strong, averaging 28% over the period, deeper issues remained, as costs increased and productivity and pricing decreased. Only 20% of asset managers sustained above-average growth. Growth came more from acquisitions than investment performance or scale. Most firms lacked conviction to invest enough in growth, even during periods of strong profits. The report predicts trends in the industry through 2015 and provides a management agenda for positioning firms for long-term success amid ongoing uncertainty.
Private Equity Firms See Agriculture, Education, Renewable Energy and Services as Hottest Asian Investments for 2010 and beyond.
Private Equity (PE) leaders in Asia may differ in their growth expectations for 2010 and beyond, but they all agree that PE Investments will shift from traditionally attractive sectors such as Information Technology, Consumer and Retail, Financial Services and Real Estate. What are the fundamentals driving this trend and what strategies will PE firms pursue?
This presentation shows selected slides from a GIA white paper. To download the entire white paper that you are interested in, please visit http://bit.ly/GIAinsightWP
Mc kinsey vietnam macro (taking vietnam's economy to the next level)_feb 2012Le Hung
1) Vietnam has experienced strong GDP growth over the past 25 years but faces challenges sustaining its past growth rates due to declining growth in its labor force and the transition away from agriculture slowing.
2) To continue growing its economy at 7% annually through 2020, Vietnam needs to increase annual productivity growth to 6.4% to make up for declining contributions from labor force growth and economic restructuring. Without such an increase, growth could fall to 5% annually.
3) Both domestic private companies and foreign multinationals need to focus on improving productivity through workforce training, moving up value chains, and boosting capital intensity in order to sustain growth as wages rise and Vietnam's labor cost advantage declines. State-owned
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vina 2007 (vnl)Viết Nội Dung
VinaLand (VNL) is a property fund listed on the London Stock Exchange that invests in Vietnam's real estate market. As of June 2007, VNL had invested $206 million into 25 projects across Vietnam, with plans to invest an additional $111 million by the end of 2007. VNL's net asset value per share grew 26% since inception to $1.26 as of June 2007, with earnings per share of $0.12 for the year. VNL's portfolio is diversified across property sectors and regions in Vietnam.
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vina 2007 (vof)Viết Nội Dung
The Vietnam Opportunity Fund annual report summarizes the strong performance of Vietnam's economy in 2007, with GDP growth exceeding 8%. However, inflation increased significantly during the year to over 5%, posing new economic challenges. The report discusses Vietnam's continued transition to a market economy following its WTO accession and adoption of new business laws. It highlights several sectors fueling growth, but notes inflation is a major new concern requiring government measures to reduce price pressures without slowing economic expansion.
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing ...Arangkada Philippines
A presentation by the Philippine Economic Team and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor at the Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing on March 6, 2012
Viet Capital offers unique investment opportunities in Vietnam's rapidly growing economy. Vietnam has experienced strong GDP growth through economic reforms and integration into the global economy. Viet Capital provides investment management and portfolio management services, focusing on sectors with good growth potential like healthcare. The company aims to generate attractive returns through a disciplined investment process and a talented local team with global experience.
The document provides an agenda and updates on the Philippine government's focus on good governance, economic growth, fiscal management, and future priorities and investment areas. Some key points:
1) The Aquino administration has made significant governance reforms and aims to promote rapid, inclusive economic growth while ensuring fiscal consolidation and debt sustainability.
2) The Philippine economy has seen healthy and stable growth in recent years, with falling debt levels and improving fiscal balances.
3) The government is focused on continued fiscal discipline, expenditure prioritization, and transparency/accountability reforms to maintain macroeconomic stability and creditworthiness.
Study on the economic outlook for Bulgaria. Topics cover: growth scenarios for 2009-2010, the immediate challenges faced by the new government, and how Bulgaria (and Central and Eastern Europe in general) will have to reinvent its growth model after the recovery.
Thiet ke Bao cao thuong nien - Vcbs 2007Viết Nội Dung
The document provides an annual report for Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) for 2007. It includes messages from the Chairperson and CEO highlighting key achievements and strategies. VCBS saw revenue increase 10% over target to VND 439 billion and profit increase 126% to VND 252 billion in 2007. The report provides financial highlights and discusses VCBS' core values, strategic vision, and business lines. It also includes organizational information and an outlook for 2008-2010 focusing on strengthening capacity.
This document provides information on different types of financial flows to developing countries, including foreign aid, remittances, foreign direct investment, and loans. It discusses the scale of these flows, noting that in 2010 private flows such as FDI made up 89.1% of total official and private flows, compared to 10.9% for official development aid. The document also outlines different types of foreign aid and perspectives on the impact and effectiveness of aid, including debates around whether aid fosters long-term growth and self-sufficiency or dependence.
The document is the proceedings from the Global Competitiveness Forum (GCF) held in 2011 in Saudi Arabia. It was convened under the patronage of the King and other high-level officials to focus on fostering competitiveness and future growth. Over 2000 attendees from 47 countries participated in sessions highlighting initiatives to improve competitiveness through innovation. The forum celebrated the completion of Saudi Arabia's 10x10 program to rank among the top ten most competitive economies by 2010, which helped transform the nation and economy through opening to private investment.
- After positive returns in the first three quarters of 2011, global markets saw negative returns in the second quarter due to normal volatility, though prospects for economic recession remain remote.
- While economic growth has slowed globally, it is still positive and temporary factors like disruptions from Japan's disasters and commodity price rises have contributed; leading indicators remain positive.
- European sovereign debt issues continue regarding some countries' debt levels and management, but efforts to address problems have been taken and debt is still seen as manageable.
- Outlook remains positive for continued growth in the second half of 2011 and beyond, though expect continued short-term market volatility; long-term discipline and diversification are recommended.
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2) A hard landing in China's economy could have significant negative effects on the global economy as China accounts for around 50% of global growth. It would also impact financial, commodity, and trade markets.
3) Slower growth in China would negatively affect exporting countries and commodity prices, with countries like Germany, Japan, Sweden, the US, Australia, Indonesia, and Brazil feeling the effects. It could also cause turbulence in global financial markets.
2010 Q1: Feature on the 2010 Monetary Policy Statement and Budgeteconsultbw
The document summarizes the Bifm Economic Review for the 1st quarter of 2010. It finds that the global economic recovery is underway after one year since the depths of recession, with growth strongest in emerging markets like China that were less impacted by the financial crisis. While emerging markets are benefiting from higher commodity prices and trade, developed economies are expected to have slower growth in 2010-2011. The review also examines how global and domestic factors are impacting Botswana's economy.
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The document provides an overview of the global and Botswana economies in the 4th quarter of 2009. Key points include:
- The global economy is recovering from recession but growth is uneven, with emerging markets growing faster than developed countries. Risks remain such as high government debt levels.
- In Botswana, diamond production and exports recovered partially in 2009 but remain below previous levels. Inflation fell sharply while interest rates were cut. The non-mining economy showed resilience.
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The document provides an economic review of the 2nd quarter of 2009. It summarizes that while the global economy shows some signs of recovery from recession, growth is expected to remain slow. The mining sector in Botswana experienced a major contraction in the 1st quarter but is now seeing signs of recovery. Botswana's exports fell substantially in the 1st four months of 2009 due to declines in diamond and copper-nickel exports. However, the non-mining economy has proved resilient so far. The government faces fiscal challenges from declining revenues and commitments to large expenditure projects.
1. 9/8/2008
NATIONAL BUSINESS
CONFERENCE, 2008
IS BOTSWANA’S GROWTH
SUSTAINABLE?
Keith Jefferis
Structure of Presentation
What is sustainable economic growth?
Concepts and definitions
Secrets of success
Sustainability issues in Botswana
Economic growth & diversification
Poverty & inclusive growth
Resources and the environment
1
2. 9/8/2008
What is Sustainable Growth?
“Old” Definition: “New” definition
Continuing economic
Economic growth that growth, at a high rate,
continues at a high leading to:
rate, without cycles of improving the quality of
life of the population
boom and recession alleviating poverty
Focuses only on preserving or improving
the natural resource base
economic (GDP) growth Encompasses inclusive,
equitable development,
and environmental
sustainability, along with
rising GDP per capita
World Bank Commission on Growth
and Development (CGD)
2008 Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and
Inclusive Development
Identified 13 countries achieving “high, sustained
growth” – defined as 7% a year for 25 years
Botswana the only African country included
Others: Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan,
S. Korea, Malaysia, Malta, Oman, Singapore,
Taiwan, Thailand
2
3. 9/8/2008
CGD: Secrets of Success
Outward orientation Leadership and Effective
Export-led growth Government
Openness to FDI Capable, credible and
Receptive to foreign committed
ideas, technology, know- Patience, long planning
how horizon, commitment to
inclusive development
High savings and
investment Strong technocratic
teams
Effective markets & Policy continuity and
regulatory institutions consistency
Macroeconomic stability
Openness
import knowledge,
exploit global
demand
Leadership &
governance
capable Macroeconomic
administration, stability
credible modest inflation,
commitment to Common sustainable public
finances
growth &
inclusiveness
characteristics
of high,
sustained
growth
Market allocation Future
prices guide orientation
resources, high investment
resources follow and saving
prices
3
4. 9/8/2008
CGD: Barriers to Success
Four factors found to affect growth negatively:
Africa
Small states
Resource-rich
Middle-income countries
Botswana falls into all of these categories
Indicating the challenges of sustainable growth
going forward.
Botswana: Sustainable Growth Issues
4
5. 9/8/2008
Key “Sustainable Growth” Issues in
Botswana
Economic Growth
Move beyond diamond-led growth
Export-led diversification
Poverty & inclusiveness
Reducing high levels of poverty & inequality
Bringing all groups into the modern economy
Resource & environmental issues
Mineral production
Water, power, climate change
Economic Growth
5
6. 9/8/2008
Long Term GDP Growth
Economic growth has been
on a long-term downward
trend
Recent trend growth
around 6%
More sustainable than
higher, earlier growth
rates
But dependence upon
mining & government
remains a problem, given
anticipated decline in
mineral revenues
Growth Drivers – Investment & Savings
Investment is the basis for
future growth
Declining rate of investment
(% GDP) does not augur
well for future growth
Not due to shortage of
savings, which remain very
high (unlike most of SSA)
Investment rate needs to
increase
Reinforces need to improve
investment climate,
encourage FDI
6
7. 9/8/2008
Diversification – a mixed picture
Objectives:
reduce long-term
dependence upon
diamond mining &
government
enhance growth of non-
mining private sector
development of export-
oriented goods and
services
Slow growth in the non-mining private
sector
Growth on a
downward trend,
though recent recovery
Slower than overall
GDP growth, hence
diversification limited
Remains dependent
upon government
spending
7
8. 9/8/2008
The bright side of diversification: exports
Growth & Openness
Sustainable growth in Botswana must be export-led
Mining is export – oriented, internationally competitive and diversifying
Non-mining less so:
Heavily dependent upon govt
Limited export base
FDI is more export oriented
Need to attract more FDI
Need to increase export focus of locally-owned firms
Potential in services exports
But trade in services less covered by trade agreements than trade in goods
Trade negotiations important
Remember: openness involves both imports and exports
Competitiveness and productivity issues still need to be addressed
8
9. 9/8/2008
Fiscal Sustainability - Long-term
Mineral Revenues
7000
6000
5000
4000
Diamond revenue
in millions of
3000 dollars
2000 Mining goes
underground before
Recycling of existing waste resources are
(higher production of lower- totally depleted
1000 quality diamonds as
underlined by a lower price
trend)
0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Source: IMF (based on Govt. data)
Long-term fiscal sustainability
Fiscal Rule (NDP9) Long-term prospects
Expenditure targeted at Revenues at 25-30% of
40% of GDP GDP
Spending matched to Declining diamond
average revenues mining profits and
No savings/surpluses (or production
deficits) planned over a Lower profits and tax
budget cycle take on new mining
Revenues at 40% of ventures and other
GDP reflect high economic activities
profitability of diamond Government spending
mining, and high tax rate will have to be cut,
applied relative to the size of the
economy
9
10. 9/8/2008
Sustainable low inflation ... not yet
achieved
20%
18% De- Food &
valuation Fuel prices
16%
14% VAT
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2% Apparent floor of 6% too high - needs to be reduced
0% through structural reforms & productivity improvements
Long-term growth issues & challenges
Build on successes of mining sector and extend to
the rest of the economy
Strengthen capacity for exports of internationally
competitive goods and services
Improve productivity in public and private sectors
Gradually reduce size of, and dependence on
government
Sustain record of policy consistency with long-term
outlook
10
11. 9/8/2008
Poverty & Inclusiveness
Poverty Trends
Positive Negative
Poverty rates declining Poverty high for a
steadily middle income country
Low urban poverty Persistent pockets of
Public services: poverty:
Education Rural areas
Health Elderly
Water Large families
Social safety nets Less well educated
Those without formal
employment
11
12. 9/8/2008
Poverty Rates by Region
Contrast between
urban and rural
poverty rates
Poverty rate higher in
more remote western
regions
Where do the poor live?
Only 8% of the poor
are in urban areas
High poverty rates in
western Botswana, but
very low population
Majority of poor
(69%) in rural NE and
SE
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13. 9/8/2008
Average (median) incomes by
settlement type
Source: HIES 1993/94 & 2002/03
Inequality – Lorenz Curve
Botswana highly
unequal – richest 20%
have 69% of total
consumption
Inequality has been
getting worse
Makes the task of
poverty reduction more
difficult
Man inequality is
between urban & rural
areas
13
14. 9/8/2008
Causes of Poverty
Causes Remedies
Lack of (formal sector) Growth-enhancing
jobs policies
Lack of human capital Job creation
Inadequate social Investment in health,
safety nets education and training
Reliance on agriculture Improve social safety
nets
Agricultural support
schemes
Is agriculture a poverty trap?
Domestic service Focus on agriculture
Agriculture
Trade etc. A very low wage/low
Construction
Hotels etc. income activity
Manufacturing
Soc & comm serv.
Are we pushing people
Transp. & comms into uneconomic activities
Public admin.
Real Estate
with perpetual
Health dependence on govt
Mining
Education subsidies?
Water & elec.
Banking
If yes, then:
creating a poverty trap
unsustainable in long-term
Average monthly wage (Pula), 2006
14
15. 9/8/2008
Little benefit for farmers from subsidies
(ISPAAD)
Approximate costs and
revenues for small-scale
(<5ha) rainfed maize
production
Revenues cover only 27%
of costs
With 77% govt subsidy of
costs, 5ha farmer makes
P700 a year – while govt
pays P12300
Assumes 60% increase in
productivity from current
levels
Poor are in rural areas ...but should
they stay there?
Majority of Batswana
are now urban
Agriculture occupies
only 14% of labour
force (2006 BDS)
Limited economic
potential in rural areas
Long-term urbanisation
will continue
15
16. 9/8/2008
Re-think of poverty alleviation
strategies?
Rural areas are a drain on national resources – consuming more than
they produce
Current agricultural and rural development / settlement policies may
not be sustainable
Focus in rural areas should be on long-term sustainable activities
(tourism, cattle, indigenous/veld products)
Sustainable, commercially viable agriculture should be encouraged –
but will employ few people
Acknowledge that many agricultural policies (e.g. ALDEP, ISPAAD)
are disguised social policies – and are inefficient both economically
and socially
Poverty alleviation will come primarily from urban job creation
Resource & Environmental Issues
16
17. 9/8/2008
Sustainable Use of Mineral Resources
Minerals
Resource curse avoided
Mineral revenues invested - in human, physical and
financial capital, not consumed - in line with
international best practice
Maintains and improves capital base of economy
Sustainable Use of Mineral Resources
Downsides of mineral revenues:
Has led to excessively large government, with “soft”
budget constraint
Has led to inefficiency and avoidance of tough
resource allocation decisions/choices
Savings into mineral fund has been passive (leftover
funds) not an active decision before other spending
No substantive policy change needed, except:
Accumulate more financial assets, given anticipated decline
of mineral revenues
Need to ensure that public investments are productive
17
18. 9/8/2008
Environmental Sustainability Issues
Physical environment:
vulnerable to degradation (overgrazing, bush encroachment);
arid, with generally poor quality soils
inefficient land use
Water:
shortages and stress
limited recycling
Power
shortages
reliance on coal-fired power
limited use of renewable energy
Impact of global warming and climate change
Water Stress
Very limited water supplies
Global warming to worsen the situation
Supplies far from demand – expensive infrastructure
needed
Reliance on groundwater to supplement surface water
Groundwater “mining” (offtake > replenishment) – non-
renewable, unsustainable
Price < long-run costs, esp. for boreholes
Prices need to rise:
to reflect long-run costs
to encourage more efficient use, water harvesting, conservation &
recycling
18
19. 9/8/2008
Power Supplies – Global Issues
Concern about global warming – greenhouse gases
Pressure for moves towards renewable /
sustainable/low-carbon energy sources
Pressure for prices to reflect true cost of CO2
emissions:
Carbon taxes
Permits to pollute (cap and trade)
Tougher successor to Kyoto Protocol
Power Supplies - Botswana
Current power shortage likely to intensify – with adverse economic
effects
Additional short-term supplies from fossil fuels (coal, gas) – driven
by economics
Contributes to greenhouse gas – global public good (or cost)
Longer-term economics may look quite different, with taxation of
polluters
Need for consideration of long-term sustainable solutions – most
obviously solar power
Power prices must rise considerably:
To pay for expensive new capacity
To encourage energy efficiency and appropriate resource allocation
19
20. 9/8/2008
Conclusions
Is Botswana’s growth sustainable?
Historically, growth has been sustained, and
sustainable in the context of a resource-driven
economy
New sustainability challenges in the context of:
reduced dependence on diamonds
growing income from medium -> high
overcoming small size/Africa constraints
Range of changes needed
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21. 9/8/2008
Reforms to support sustainable growth
Continued diversification essential (including
diversification within mining sector)
Deeper engagement in international trade for non-
mining goods and services (both imports and exports)
Achieve international standards of productivity and
competitiveness
Build sustainable public finances (smaller and more
efficient government, reduced expenditure)
Re-think of poverty alleviation strategies
Appropriate resource pricing and developing long-term
sustainable sources & uses of water and power
Thank You
21