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Presented by Group 3
• accounting term that refers to goods that are in various
stages of being made ready for sale
• Raw Materials
• Semi-Finished Goods
• Finished Goods
• Work-In-Process(WIP)
• Maintenance, Repair,&
Operational Supplies
• Safety Stock
• Lot-size Inventory
• De-coupling Stock
• Pipeline Inventory
• Transportation Inventory
• Anticipation Inventory
• Hedge Inventory
• To ensure continuous supply of materials.
• To ensure uninterrupted production process.
• To minimize the risks and losses incurred due to
shortage of inventory.
• To ensure better customer services
• Avoiding of stock out danger.
•
•
•
• Just-in-Time Method
• Materials Requirement Planning
• Days Sales of Inventory
• Economic Order Quantity
TECHNIQUES OF
INVENTORY CONTROL
Traditional Techniques
• Inventory Control Ratios
• Two Bin System
• Perpetual Inventory System
• Periodic Inventory System
Modern Techniques
• Economic Order Quantity
• Re-order Point
• Fixing Stocks Levels
• Selective Inventory Control
Forecasting
- is a process of making prediction, projection, or
estimates of some future activity, event, or
occurrence.
- it refers to a planning tool that helps management
in its attempts to cope with the uncertainty of the
future.
Simply, “forecasting is a technique that uses historical
data as inputs to make informed estimates that are
predictive in determining the direction of future
trends.”
• It is strictly concerned with the future events only.
• It analysis the probability of a future events or
transactions occurring or happening.
• It involves analysis of data from the past and the
present.
• It uses scientific techniques and methods to make
such forecasts.
• It also involves certain guesswork and observations.
•
•
•
• Gather and analyze relevant data.
• Prepare the forecast.
• Monitor the forecast.
TYPES OF FORECASTS:
• Economic Forecasts
• Technological Forecasts
• Demand Forecast
DIFFERENT METHODS OF
FORECASTING:
Qualitative Method
• this method is based on
judgments, opinions, intuition,
emotion, or personal
experiences and are subjective
in nature.
Quantitative Method
• this method is based on
mathematical models and are
objective in nature.
QUALITATIVE METHODS
EXECUTIVE
OPINION
Approach in which a
group of managers
meet and collectively
develop a forecast.
MARKET
SURVEY
Approach that uses
interviews and surveys
to judge preferences
of customers and to
assess demand.
SALES FORCE
COMPOSITE
Approach in which
each salesperson
estimates sales in
his or her region.
DELPHI
METHOD
Approach in which
consensus agreement
is reached among a
group of experts.
• it looks at the past
patterns of data and
attempt to predict
future based upon the
underlying patterns
that are obtained from
those data.
• it assumes that the
variable that is being
forecasted is associated
with other variables The
predictions are made
based on these
associations.
• Naïve – uses last period’s actual value as a forecast.
Forecast= Actual Sales last period
• Simple Mean (Average) - uses an average of all value
as a forecast.
F=∑(Actual Sales)/n
• Simple Moving Average – uses an average of a
specified number of the most recent observation, with
each observation receiving the same emphasis(weight).
SMA = ∑(sales)/n
• Weighted Moving Average – uses an average of a
specified number of the most recent observations, with
each observation receiving different emphasis(weight).
*if the weights given = 1
WMA= ∑[(w)(sales)]
*if the weights given is not equal to 1, then, it must be divided
by the summation of weights given
PATTERNS PRESENT
IN A TIME SERIES
• Trend – data exhibits a steady growth or decline over time.
• Seasonality - data exhibits upward and downward swings
in a short to intermediate time (most notably during a
year).
• Cycles – data exhibits upward and downward swings in
over a long time frame.
• Random Variations – erratic and unpredictable variations
in the data over time with no discernible pattern.
ASSOCIATIVE FORECASTING METHOD
MEAN
FORECAST
ERROR (MFE)
MEAN ABSOLUTE
DEVIATION (MAD)
MEAN ABSOLUTE
PENT ERROR (MAPE)
TWO BASIC STEPS IN
DESIGNING A PRODUCT
Functional Design
• decisions are made on
dimensions, materials to be
used, type of final finish
required for appearance and so
on
Production Design
• in the production design stage,
the designer considers
introduction of modifications
and new concepts into the
product to make it more
suitable for production
Features of a Good
Product Design Quality
• Standardized
• Maintainability
• Cost effectiveness
3-Pillars of Design
Management
• Design
• Strategy
• Demand Generation
Process Planning
• is concerned with planning the
conversion or transformation
processes needed to convert
the materials into finished
products
Process and
Operations design
• provide information on what is
required to effectively utilize the
existing equipment and to
determine what new equipment
and machinery would be required
Process Requirement:
•Collecting and gathering information
•Team Building
•Planning and Implementation
•Audit
•End of Life
QUALITATIVE METHODS
Service Design
•is strategic choice
which determines the
nature and based on a
focus of the service and
its market target
Service System (CSS:
Customer Service
System)
•is based on a strategic
choice which
determines the nature
and focus of the service
and its market target
Service Delivery
System
•the facilities,
processes, and skills
needed to provide a
service
Product
Bundle
•the combination of
goods and services
provided to a customer
FOUR KEY ELEMENTS OF
SERVICE DELIVERY SYSTEM
Service Culture
•built on elements of
leadership principles,
norms work habits, and
vision, mission and
values
Service Quality
•includes strategies,
processes and
performance
management systems
Employment
Engagement
•includes employee
attitude activities,
purpose driven
leadership and HR
processes
Customer
Experience
•includes elements of
customer intelligence,
account management
and continuous
improvements
• quality is a measure of customer satisfaction with a
product or service
• a method to transform qualitative user demands into
quantitative parameters, to deploy the functions forming
quality, and to deploy methods for achieving the design
quality into subsystems and components parts, and
ultimately to specific elements of the manufacturing
process
QFD: Most Important Product
/Service Attributes or
Qualities
The house quality function provides:
• A requirements planning capability
• A tool for graphic and integrated thinking
• A means to capture and preserve the engineering thought
process
• A means to communicate the thought process to new
members of the QFD team
• A means to inform management regarding inconsistencies
between requirements risks, and needs of the customer
• Quality Deployment
• Function Deployment
• Product Concept
Planning
• Product Development
and Specification
• Manufacturing
Processes and
Production Tools
• Production of Products
• Matrix Diagram or
House of Quality
•Increased likelihood of success when management
commits to adopting formal methodologies, setting
clear targets and providing employee training
•involves
eliminating the
cause so that
the problem
does not occur
•a framework for
problem solving and
improvement activities
•has four basic steps:
1. Plan 3. Study
2. Do 4. Act
•a systematic approach to
improve a process
•goals include increasing
customer satisfaction,
achieving higher quality,
reducing waste, reducing cost,
increasing productivity, and
reducing processing time
1FORECASTING.pptx

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1FORECASTING.pptx

  • 2. • accounting term that refers to goods that are in various stages of being made ready for sale
  • 3. • Raw Materials • Semi-Finished Goods • Finished Goods • Work-In-Process(WIP) • Maintenance, Repair,& Operational Supplies • Safety Stock • Lot-size Inventory • De-coupling Stock • Pipeline Inventory • Transportation Inventory • Anticipation Inventory • Hedge Inventory
  • 4. • To ensure continuous supply of materials. • To ensure uninterrupted production process. • To minimize the risks and losses incurred due to shortage of inventory. • To ensure better customer services • Avoiding of stock out danger.
  • 6. • Just-in-Time Method • Materials Requirement Planning • Days Sales of Inventory • Economic Order Quantity
  • 7. TECHNIQUES OF INVENTORY CONTROL Traditional Techniques • Inventory Control Ratios • Two Bin System • Perpetual Inventory System • Periodic Inventory System Modern Techniques • Economic Order Quantity • Re-order Point • Fixing Stocks Levels • Selective Inventory Control
  • 8. Forecasting - is a process of making prediction, projection, or estimates of some future activity, event, or occurrence. - it refers to a planning tool that helps management in its attempts to cope with the uncertainty of the future. Simply, “forecasting is a technique that uses historical data as inputs to make informed estimates that are predictive in determining the direction of future trends.”
  • 9. • It is strictly concerned with the future events only. • It analysis the probability of a future events or transactions occurring or happening. • It involves analysis of data from the past and the present. • It uses scientific techniques and methods to make such forecasts. • It also involves certain guesswork and observations.
  • 10. • • • • Gather and analyze relevant data. • Prepare the forecast. • Monitor the forecast.
  • 11. TYPES OF FORECASTS: • Economic Forecasts • Technological Forecasts • Demand Forecast
  • 12. DIFFERENT METHODS OF FORECASTING: Qualitative Method • this method is based on judgments, opinions, intuition, emotion, or personal experiences and are subjective in nature. Quantitative Method • this method is based on mathematical models and are objective in nature.
  • 13. QUALITATIVE METHODS EXECUTIVE OPINION Approach in which a group of managers meet and collectively develop a forecast. MARKET SURVEY Approach that uses interviews and surveys to judge preferences of customers and to assess demand. SALES FORCE COMPOSITE Approach in which each salesperson estimates sales in his or her region. DELPHI METHOD Approach in which consensus agreement is reached among a group of experts.
  • 14. • it looks at the past patterns of data and attempt to predict future based upon the underlying patterns that are obtained from those data. • it assumes that the variable that is being forecasted is associated with other variables The predictions are made based on these associations.
  • 15. • Naïve – uses last period’s actual value as a forecast. Forecast= Actual Sales last period • Simple Mean (Average) - uses an average of all value as a forecast. F=∑(Actual Sales)/n • Simple Moving Average – uses an average of a specified number of the most recent observation, with each observation receiving the same emphasis(weight). SMA = ∑(sales)/n
  • 16. • Weighted Moving Average – uses an average of a specified number of the most recent observations, with each observation receiving different emphasis(weight). *if the weights given = 1 WMA= ∑[(w)(sales)] *if the weights given is not equal to 1, then, it must be divided by the summation of weights given
  • 17. PATTERNS PRESENT IN A TIME SERIES • Trend – data exhibits a steady growth or decline over time. • Seasonality - data exhibits upward and downward swings in a short to intermediate time (most notably during a year). • Cycles – data exhibits upward and downward swings in over a long time frame. • Random Variations – erratic and unpredictable variations in the data over time with no discernible pattern.
  • 18. ASSOCIATIVE FORECASTING METHOD MEAN FORECAST ERROR (MFE) MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) MEAN ABSOLUTE PENT ERROR (MAPE)
  • 19. TWO BASIC STEPS IN DESIGNING A PRODUCT Functional Design • decisions are made on dimensions, materials to be used, type of final finish required for appearance and so on Production Design • in the production design stage, the designer considers introduction of modifications and new concepts into the product to make it more suitable for production
  • 20. Features of a Good Product Design Quality • Standardized • Maintainability • Cost effectiveness 3-Pillars of Design Management • Design • Strategy • Demand Generation
  • 21. Process Planning • is concerned with planning the conversion or transformation processes needed to convert the materials into finished products Process and Operations design • provide information on what is required to effectively utilize the existing equipment and to determine what new equipment and machinery would be required
  • 22. Process Requirement: •Collecting and gathering information •Team Building •Planning and Implementation •Audit •End of Life
  • 23. QUALITATIVE METHODS Service Design •is strategic choice which determines the nature and based on a focus of the service and its market target Service System (CSS: Customer Service System) •is based on a strategic choice which determines the nature and focus of the service and its market target Service Delivery System •the facilities, processes, and skills needed to provide a service Product Bundle •the combination of goods and services provided to a customer
  • 24. FOUR KEY ELEMENTS OF SERVICE DELIVERY SYSTEM Service Culture •built on elements of leadership principles, norms work habits, and vision, mission and values Service Quality •includes strategies, processes and performance management systems Employment Engagement •includes employee attitude activities, purpose driven leadership and HR processes Customer Experience •includes elements of customer intelligence, account management and continuous improvements
  • 25. • quality is a measure of customer satisfaction with a product or service • a method to transform qualitative user demands into quantitative parameters, to deploy the functions forming quality, and to deploy methods for achieving the design quality into subsystems and components parts, and ultimately to specific elements of the manufacturing process
  • 26. QFD: Most Important Product /Service Attributes or Qualities The house quality function provides: • A requirements planning capability • A tool for graphic and integrated thinking • A means to capture and preserve the engineering thought process • A means to communicate the thought process to new members of the QFD team • A means to inform management regarding inconsistencies between requirements risks, and needs of the customer
  • 27. • Quality Deployment • Function Deployment • Product Concept Planning • Product Development and Specification • Manufacturing Processes and Production Tools • Production of Products • Matrix Diagram or House of Quality
  • 28. •Increased likelihood of success when management commits to adopting formal methodologies, setting clear targets and providing employee training
  • 29. •involves eliminating the cause so that the problem does not occur •a framework for problem solving and improvement activities •has four basic steps: 1. Plan 3. Study 2. Do 4. Act •a systematic approach to improve a process •goals include increasing customer satisfaction, achieving higher quality, reducing waste, reducing cost, increasing productivity, and reducing processing time