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Mass Valuation:
Processes & Decisions
Gerhard.Muggenhuber@bev.gv.at
BEV - www.bev.gv.at - Federal Office of Metrology and Surveying
Dept. International Relations, State Borders
A-1020 Vienna, Schiffamtsgasse 1-3
PhD-student at TU-Vienna
C+LR KEN
Cadastre + Land Registry Knowledge Exchange Network
Land Administration Processes
Data – Processes – Resources
Land Administration Processes
Price - Value
Levels of value
Perspectives
on value
Source: den Ouden, E. (2012): Innovation Design: Creating Value for People, Organisations and Society. Dordrecht: Springer.
Theory of price:
benefit gained from those who
demand the entity meets the
seller's marginal costs
Theory of value:
Present worth of future benefit
Classical economic:
• Labor theory of value
• Exchange value
Price - Value
Levels of value
Perspectives
on value
Source: den Ouden, E. (2012): Innovation Design: Creating Value for People, Organisations and Society. Dordrecht: Springer.
Nutzen – Wert – Preis
Levels of value
Perspectives
on value
Source: den Ouden, E. (2012): Innovation Design: Creating Value for People, Organisations and Society. Dordrecht: Springer.
Theory of price:
benefit gained from those who
demand the entity meets the
seller's marginal costs
Theory of value:
Present worth of future benefit
Classical economic:
• Labor theory of value
• Exchange value
Model Valuation cycle
adapted from {Espinosa #3270}.
CRISP-DM Data Mining Process Model
Data categories
select / cooperate to ensure access
OBJEK
T
VALUE
§legal
Restrictions
Rights
Financial
Costs / Risks
Benefits
OBJEK
T
Site
Improvement
Land
Location
Infrastructure
Dis-/Amenities
VALUEi = f (Si, Li, Fi, §i) + f (x,y,t)
• How to gather / store / share data ?
• Are our processes at C&LR fit for purpose ?
– PPP: D: Sales price collection / USA: MLS / SLO: sales-price-db
– A: Transfer-prices Housing Register
• How to contribute to a dynamic system ?
Real Estate Market
a dynamic system
flats – new/old houses
VALUEi = f (Si, Li, Fi, §i) + f (x,y,t)
Real Estate Market observations
Life Cycle
SUPPLY TRANSFER DEMAND
Statistic Austria
(GWR)
Regions
Cadastre Asking Price Land Tenure
Public Reg.
C& LR
Statistic
Austria
Offer
Price
Use Regulation
Constructing
Investors
Subdivisions
Buildings
TO
SELL
TO
RE
NT
TO
SELL
TO
RENT
Owners
Users
Land    -   
 Building land      
 Potential land use 
Land& Building / /    - 
 Improved building
land
   - -
 Under construction ∑Building permits
∑Construction
costs
  - - - 
 New construction ∑ Building
completed
  - - 
 Old construction   - - 
 Energy efficiency    - - 
Lester, B., Visschers, L. & Wolthoff, R. (2013): Competing with Asking Prices. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 7163, http://ftp.iza.org/dp7163.pdf .
McCord, J. (2014): Northern Ireland Asking Price Index, http://www.nihe.gov.uk/northern_ireland_asking_price_index.pdf
Real estate transfer market
to sell
to rent
To
sell
To
ren
t
Flat
Flat+
House
Land
Spatio-temporal variation of characteristics & price
alternating granularity / missing characteristics
Real Estate: Assets & Space Markets
renting / buying / constructing / space
DiPasquale, D. & Wheaton, W.C. (1992): The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework.
Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association V20, 1, 181–197.
Statistical Modelling of Value
info is in the residuals
 analyzing variance-covariance matrix
Statistical Modelling
Challenges & Approaches
Real Estate Market fundamentals
spatio-temporal variation of characteristics & price
Ball, Michael (2012): RICS European Housing Review 2012. RICS. London.
ask price – sale price
EUROSTAT (Hg.) (2012): Technical manual on OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING for Harmonized Index of Consumer
Prices (v.2.0).
Willingness
Infrastructure f. data / processes / services
How much cooperation does the market accept ?
Mass valuation to facilitate better decision making:
 Socio-economic / Spatial planning processes
 Property related taxation / subsidies
 Parameters to support, but NOT to challenge individual valuation
Market observations & Mass valuation
• to reveal fundamental facts & market trends
• for a functioning /bubble-free real estate market
• for a transparent decision making within Gov. - Business - Citizens
 data on market fundamentals : NL, SWE, SLO, PL, CZ
 data on value-determining parameters FR, G: Land-value-maps
 data on public rights & restrictions CH: ÖREB
Politics
Infra-
struktur
Willingness
Infrastructure f. data / processes / services
Does C+LR see the opportunity ???
C+LR: opportunity
to contribute essential parameters & processes
 site characteristics of land & building
 Provide private & public property rights
 Ensure spatiotemporal labeling of data
 clearly specified metadata (level of completeness, granularity, ...)
 Value-determining parameters: efficient acquisition / multiple use
-Web- / Data-Mining / Cooperation (G-B-C)
Technical
coop.

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1b mugg mass valuation-processes-v2

  • 1. Mass Valuation: Processes & Decisions Gerhard.Muggenhuber@bev.gv.at BEV - www.bev.gv.at - Federal Office of Metrology and Surveying Dept. International Relations, State Borders A-1020 Vienna, Schiffamtsgasse 1-3 PhD-student at TU-Vienna C+LR KEN Cadastre + Land Registry Knowledge Exchange Network
  • 2. Land Administration Processes Data – Processes – Resources
  • 4. Price - Value Levels of value Perspectives on value Source: den Ouden, E. (2012): Innovation Design: Creating Value for People, Organisations and Society. Dordrecht: Springer. Theory of price: benefit gained from those who demand the entity meets the seller's marginal costs Theory of value: Present worth of future benefit Classical economic: • Labor theory of value • Exchange value
  • 5. Price - Value Levels of value Perspectives on value Source: den Ouden, E. (2012): Innovation Design: Creating Value for People, Organisations and Society. Dordrecht: Springer.
  • 6. Nutzen – Wert – Preis Levels of value Perspectives on value Source: den Ouden, E. (2012): Innovation Design: Creating Value for People, Organisations and Society. Dordrecht: Springer. Theory of price: benefit gained from those who demand the entity meets the seller's marginal costs Theory of value: Present worth of future benefit Classical economic: • Labor theory of value • Exchange value
  • 7. Model Valuation cycle adapted from {Espinosa #3270}. CRISP-DM Data Mining Process Model
  • 8. Data categories select / cooperate to ensure access OBJEK T VALUE §legal Restrictions Rights Financial Costs / Risks Benefits OBJEK T Site Improvement Land Location Infrastructure Dis-/Amenities VALUEi = f (Si, Li, Fi, §i) + f (x,y,t)
  • 9. • How to gather / store / share data ? • Are our processes at C&LR fit for purpose ? – PPP: D: Sales price collection / USA: MLS / SLO: sales-price-db – A: Transfer-prices Housing Register • How to contribute to a dynamic system ? Real Estate Market a dynamic system flats – new/old houses VALUEi = f (Si, Li, Fi, §i) + f (x,y,t)
  • 10. Real Estate Market observations Life Cycle SUPPLY TRANSFER DEMAND Statistic Austria (GWR) Regions Cadastre Asking Price Land Tenure Public Reg. C& LR Statistic Austria Offer Price Use Regulation Constructing Investors Subdivisions Buildings TO SELL TO RE NT TO SELL TO RENT Owners Users Land    -     Building land        Potential land use  Land& Building / /    -   Improved building land    - -  Under construction ∑Building permits ∑Construction costs   - - -   New construction ∑ Building completed   - -   Old construction   - -   Energy efficiency    - -  Lester, B., Visschers, L. & Wolthoff, R. (2013): Competing with Asking Prices. IZA Discussion Paper, No. 7163, http://ftp.iza.org/dp7163.pdf . McCord, J. (2014): Northern Ireland Asking Price Index, http://www.nihe.gov.uk/northern_ireland_asking_price_index.pdf
  • 11. Real estate transfer market to sell to rent
  • 12. To sell To ren t Flat Flat+ House Land Spatio-temporal variation of characteristics & price alternating granularity / missing characteristics
  • 13. Real Estate: Assets & Space Markets renting / buying / constructing / space DiPasquale, D. & Wheaton, W.C. (1992): The Markets for Real Estate Assets and Space: A Conceptual Framework. Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economic Association V20, 1, 181–197.
  • 15. info is in the residuals  analyzing variance-covariance matrix Statistical Modelling Challenges & Approaches
  • 16. Real Estate Market fundamentals spatio-temporal variation of characteristics & price Ball, Michael (2012): RICS European Housing Review 2012. RICS. London. ask price – sale price EUROSTAT (Hg.) (2012): Technical manual on OWNER-OCCUPIED HOUSING for Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (v.2.0).
  • 17. Willingness Infrastructure f. data / processes / services How much cooperation does the market accept ? Mass valuation to facilitate better decision making:  Socio-economic / Spatial planning processes  Property related taxation / subsidies  Parameters to support, but NOT to challenge individual valuation Market observations & Mass valuation • to reveal fundamental facts & market trends • for a functioning /bubble-free real estate market • for a transparent decision making within Gov. - Business - Citizens  data on market fundamentals : NL, SWE, SLO, PL, CZ  data on value-determining parameters FR, G: Land-value-maps  data on public rights & restrictions CH: ÖREB Politics Infra- struktur
  • 18. Willingness Infrastructure f. data / processes / services Does C+LR see the opportunity ??? C+LR: opportunity to contribute essential parameters & processes  site characteristics of land & building  Provide private & public property rights  Ensure spatiotemporal labeling of data  clearly specified metadata (level of completeness, granularity, ...)  Value-determining parameters: efficient acquisition / multiple use -Web- / Data-Mining / Cooperation (G-B-C) Technical coop.

Editor's Notes

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