The document provides a daily technical analysis of the Qatar stock market and various stocks trading on it. It summarizes the day's performance of the QSE Index and various sectors, noting a slight decline in the index. It then analyzes two stocks in more depth, NLCS and MCGS, noting technical indicators point to further declines, and provides price targets and recommendations to sell any rallies in both stocks. Overall market activity metrics like trading value and volume are also summarized.

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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Thursday, 11 December 2014
Stocks Covered Today Ticker Price Target
NLCS
21.40
20.50
MCGS
116.00
108.00
QSE Index Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last
12,339.87
-0.1
9.7
Resistance/Support Levels 1st 2nd 3rd
Resistance
12,450
12,620
12,900
Support
12,200
12,000
11,400
QSE Index Commentary
Overview:
The Index dropped slightly, creating a Bullish Doji Star candlestick. After the sharp recent declines, the candle signifies indecision between market participants. The MACD on the daily is well below the zero line, and the RSI is at the oversold area. In the intraday chart, MACD is diverging positively against the Index. The mixed signals indicate the trend is still down but a bounce is possible near-term.
Expected Target : 12,450 – 12,620
This short-term bounce should be used as a selling point.
Suggested Stop-Loss: 12,200
A drop below will drag the Index to the 12,000 psychological level.
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary Market Indicators 10 Dec 14 09 Dec 14 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn)
411.4
554.9
-25.9
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn)
678.3
678.1
0.0
Volume (mn)
7.4
11.7
-36.8
Number of Trans.
5,281
6,904
-23.5
Companies Traded
40
42
-4.8
Market Breadth
11:23
1:40
–
QE Indices Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return
18,404.80
-0.1
25.9
All Share Index
3,153.43
-0.2
26.2
Banks
3,180.34
0.4
31.0
Industrials
4,089.03
-0.3
27.0
Transportation
2,253.04
-1.5
30.8
Real Estate
2,388.03
-1.1
23.8
Insurance
3,560.86
-0.2
19.9
Telecoms
1,431.25
1.6
41.0
Consumer
6,949.23
-1.7
29.3
Al Rayan Islamic
4,176.66
-0.5
28.3
RSI 14 (Over Bought) Ticker Close 1D% RSI
IHGS
219.00
1.8
75.1
RSI 14 (Over Sold) Ticker Close 1D% RSI
AHCS
13.16
-2.4
17.1
QIGD
40.05
-1.8
18.9
ERES
16.00
-1.0
19.5
DOHI
30.00
-3.5
19.6
NLCS
21.40
-1.8
20.0
QSE Index (30Min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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NLCS Price % Ch. Volume
Last
21.40
-1.83
106,904
Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rd
Resistance
22.40
22.80
23.55
Support
20.50
20.00
18.25
Commentary
Overview:
NLCS did not meet the conditions for the recommendation sent out previous Thursday. The name continued its spiral down and thus we should be selling any bounces. The MACDs, on both time frames, turned their direction down. Not surprisingly, the RSI is at an oversold area and this should not be considered an incentive to buy. Indicators and price actions suggest further retreat on the name. Rallies should be used as exit points.
Expected Price Target: QR20.50
Once it breaks the QR21.20 price, the stock could continue its descent. Sell the rallies on the name.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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MCGS Price % Ch. Volume
Last
116.00
-2.27
68,043
Resistance/Support Levels (QR) 1st 2nd 3rd
Resistance
122.00
127.00
140.00
Support
116.00
108.00
100.00
Commentary
Overview:
The name is trading at a bottom of a medium-term range. A further drop could be in the making as the MACD is below the zero line and the RSI are just touching the oversold area (on both charted time frames). Although this is a bearish call on the name, a bounce from this level is possible but it should be used for exiting long positions.
Expected Retreat Price: QR108.00 – QR100.00
The overall intraday-trend is pointing south. A drop is expected once QR116.00 is breached down.
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research (Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intra-day Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages* Support Levels Resistance Levels Ticker Close 3rd 2nd 1st Pivot 1st 2nd 3rd 50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index
12,339.87
12,185.16
12,243.20
12,279.06 12,337.10
12,395.14
12,431.00
12,489.04
13,419.77
13,496.84
12,942.69
Total Return
18,404.80
18,174.05
18,260.62
18,314.10 18,400.66
18,487.23
18,540.71
18,627.27
20,015.46
20,130.42
19,259.18
All Share
3,153.43
3,120.63
3,132.92
3,140.51 3,152.80
3,165.09
3,172.68
3,184.97
3,400.74
3,415.34
3,283.58
Al Rayan Islamic
4,176.66
4,122.85
4,144.64
4,158.10 4,179.90
4,201.69
4,215.15
4,236.95
4,523.47
4,571.38
4,279.48 Banks & Financials Services
MARK
45.45
44.62
44.88
45.05 45.32
45.58
45.75
46.02
50.72
53.13
50.19
CBQK
69.00
67.80
68.14
68.36 68.70
69.04
69.26
69.60
72.30
71.15
68.57
DHBK
57.00
55.80
56.14
56.36 56.70
57.04
57.26
57.60
58.47
59.27
60.42
QIBK
100.00
97.07
97.91
98.43 99.27
100.11
100.63
101.47
109.33
111.39
98.77
QIIK
80.60
79.20
79.70
80.00 80.50
81.00
81.30
81.80
85.68
86.76
83.63 Insurance
QATI
81.70
80.57
80.95
81.18 81.57
81.95
82.18
82.57
95.41
95.33
84.44 Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS
116.00
113.93
115.12
115.85 117.03
118.22
118.95
120.13
127.15
124.52
101.63 Industrials
IQCD
182.00
176.67
178.19
179.14 180.67
182.19
183.14
184.67
189.55
187.11
185.19
QEWS
188.00
186.67
187.05
187.28 187.67
188.05
188.28
188.67
188.34
187.77
184.52
GISS
89.60
86.00
87.83
88.97 90.80
92.63
93.77
95.60
116.24
117.73
102.82
QIGD
40.05
39.22
39.68
39.96 40.42
40.88
41.16
41.62
49.18
53.44
55.98 Real Estate
BRES
44.40
43.47
43.93
44.21 44.67
45.13
45.41
45.87
44.90
43.15
40.40
UDCD
24.60
24.13
24.29
24.38 24.53
24.69
24.78
24.93
26.92
27.96
25.77
ERES
16.00
15.61
15.78
15.88 16.04
16.21
16.31
16.47
18.86
19.57
21.49
MRDS
19.83
19.45
19.67
19.80 20.02
20.24
20.37
20.59
22.94
22.79
20.06 Telecommunication
ORDS
117.90
114.03
115.14
115.83 116.93
118.04
118.73
119.83
123.15
126.58
134.87
VFQS
16.52
16.18
16.37
16.48 16.67
16.86
16.97
17.16
19.39
20.09
18.20 Transportation
QGTS
22.30
21.60
21.91
22.09 22.40
22.71
22.89
23.20
23.92
24.16
23.32
QNNS
95.20
93.13
94.16
94.80 95.83
96.86
97.50
98.53
98.42
96.77
95.55
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head & shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.