The US saw a 0.4% drop in industrial manufacturing in September 2016, the largest decrease since March. This was greater than economists' predictions of a 0.2% decline. While the six-month average manufacturing output is slowly rising, specific industries reported contraction, such as electrical equipment and apparel. Analysts do not believe this month's report indicates serious economic problems but recommend businesses prepare for continued instability in manufacturing and consumer purchasing reports.
At the end of last week, gross domestic product data from Britain showed the economy expanding by 0.4% in Q4 and by 1.4% in calendar 2017. Those numbers met expectations but UK mortgage approvals fell by more than forecast. This short week after the Easter break didn’t bring much in the way of good news.
It’s been a challenging week for the pound; on Monday Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane spoke yesterday about "Big Data" and its use now and in the future to help shape the Bank's policy decisions.
Using the data, explain two likely causes of the forecast of slower growth for the UK economy
Examine two difficulties facing economists when forecasting economic growth
At the end of last week, gross domestic product data from Britain showed the economy expanding by 0.4% in Q4 and by 1.4% in calendar 2017. Those numbers met expectations but UK mortgage approvals fell by more than forecast. This short week after the Easter break didn’t bring much in the way of good news.
It’s been a challenging week for the pound; on Monday Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane spoke yesterday about "Big Data" and its use now and in the future to help shape the Bank's policy decisions.
Using the data, explain two likely causes of the forecast of slower growth for the UK economy
Examine two difficulties facing economists when forecasting economic growth
Natural gas report covering data received up through August 2016. The monthly report highlights activities, events, and analyses of interest to public and private sector organizations associated with the natural gas industry.
Highlights
• Economic slump has bottomed out – expect slow recovery ahead
• 2009-10 growth forecasts will be revised upwards by most as the year progresses
• Expectations of global growth resurgence fuels commodities and crude prices
• Dollar dives, rupee surges to 47 - more trouble for exporters ahead
• Fuel price deregulation on the cards
• But all is not well – and overheated stock markets need to cool a bit
India: Kal, aaj aur kal
The numbers all seem to be looking up, the stock markets all seem to be rising once again, and cheer is back. There is spring in the air. One wonders what happened suddenly to make everything so nice. Anyhow, things as predicted are improving – largely because of heavy government interventions internationally. The lower interest rates in India are also starting to have their impact – this was all predicted, as interest rate reductions take some time to play out. But what is also predicted is that things will take a few months more to stabilise - we estimate growth for this financial year to be an unexciting 6.6%.
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaKampamba Shula
On the 17th of November 18, 2016 I made a presentation at the FNB Financial Journalism academy on “The Global Economy Effects on Commodity dependent countries like Zambia”. It was well received. Below are some of the highlights
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
Natural gas report covering data received up through August 2016. The monthly report highlights activities, events, and analyses of interest to public and private sector organizations associated with the natural gas industry.
Highlights
• Economic slump has bottomed out – expect slow recovery ahead
• 2009-10 growth forecasts will be revised upwards by most as the year progresses
• Expectations of global growth resurgence fuels commodities and crude prices
• Dollar dives, rupee surges to 47 - more trouble for exporters ahead
• Fuel price deregulation on the cards
• But all is not well – and overheated stock markets need to cool a bit
India: Kal, aaj aur kal
The numbers all seem to be looking up, the stock markets all seem to be rising once again, and cheer is back. There is spring in the air. One wonders what happened suddenly to make everything so nice. Anyhow, things as predicted are improving – largely because of heavy government interventions internationally. The lower interest rates in India are also starting to have their impact – this was all predicted, as interest rate reductions take some time to play out. But what is also predicted is that things will take a few months more to stabilise - we estimate growth for this financial year to be an unexciting 6.6%.
The global economy effects on commodity dependent countries like zambiaKampamba Shula
On the 17th of November 18, 2016 I made a presentation at the FNB Financial Journalism academy on “The Global Economy Effects on Commodity dependent countries like Zambia”. It was well received. Below are some of the highlights
Report on Inflation - 11 September 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
Augusztusban 3.4% volt az éves infláció mértéke, ami meglepte az elemzőket, mivel a piac a júliusi csúcs után kismértékű csökkenésre számított. A meglepetést elsősorban a szezonális élelmiszerek – burgonya és zöldségek – áremelkedése okozta, amely nagy valószínűség szerint a következő szezonig hatással lesz az inflációra. A sokkal kevésbé változékony, a konjunktúra ciklustól erőteljesebben függő „trendinflációs” tételek esetében is emelkedő inflációt láthatunk, köszönhetően az erős belső keresletnek, illetve a költségoldalról érkező árnyomásnak. A közelmúltban ismertté vált hatósági intézkedések – jövedékiadó-emelés és autópályamatrica-áremelés – miatt az OTP Bank elemzői 2,6%-ról 2,8%-ra emelték az idei, és 2,2%-ról 2,5%-ra a jövő évi inflációs előrejelzésüket. Az általuk kiemelten figyelt „szűrt inflációs” mutató, amely nem tartalmazza a nagy áringadozású termékeket (szezonális élelmiszerek és üzemanyag) és tisztítva van az adóváltoztatások hatásától – vagyis azon tényezőktől, amelyeken a monetáris politika jellemzően „át szokott nézni” – 2,5, 2,6, és 3% lehet a 2018 és 2020 közötti években. Vagyis a 3%-os inflációs cél elérése az átmeneti hatások kiesését követően 2020-ra várható.
Key Market and Economic Indicators for Canada and United States - September 2016paul young cpa, cga
This presentation will look at both industry metrics as well as economic trends related to Canada and United States.
The presentation will provide information on the economy as part of companies looking for growth options within their business segments.
Understanding the US-China Trade Relationship Peachy Essay
The US-China Business Council (USCBC) is pleased to have commissioned this study by Oxford Economics on the overall impact of China on the US economy.
During last year’s election campaign, the negative impact of trade with China, such as estimates of jobs lost, received considerable attention. In most cases, the presented data fails to provide a balanced assessment that incorporates the positive effect of the commercial relationship with China. Presenting only the negative impact and ignoring the jobs created, lower inflation, and other benefits of trade with China can lead to policies based on incomplete or misleading information.
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to hike its policy rate from 0.25-0.50% at its 16th March 2016 meeting and may have little choice but to revise down its expectations to around 3 hikes for 2016 in its accompanying projections. In the 16th December “dot-chart”, the median expectation among the 10 voting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and 7 non-voting members was for four hikes this year (the weighted average was for a slightly less hawkish 91bp of hikes).
Our monthly economic review is intended to
provide background to recent developments in
investment markets as well as to give an
indication of how some key issues could impact in
the future.
US GDP data weakest of a disappointing lot
Data released today show that Q1 2017 real GDP growth:
In the US slowed to 0.7 quarter-on-quarter (qoq) annualised, from 2.1% qoq in Q4 2016 – the weakest growth rate in three years (see Figure 1);
In the UK halved to 0.3% qoq – the weakest growth rate in a year;
In France slowed to 0.3% qoq from 0.5% qoq in Q4 2016; and
In Spain rose to 0.8% qoq from 0.7% qoq in Q4 2016.
The recent correction in global financial markets has left developed market equities about 10% cheaper and emerging market equities 25% cheaper, removing a lot of the valuation froth that was evident.
Commenting in Novare Investments’ economic report for the third quarter of 2015, Francois van der Merwe, Head of Macro Research, said: “We expect global equities to be supported by continued accommodative monetary policies, soft inflation and a moderate global economic recovery.
9th issue of our inhouse magazine Ingenious May 2024.pdfAnkur Shah
The Ingenious magazine is a quarterly magazine prepared by the alumni of FCFP under the able guidance of our Guru Shri Gopinath Radhakrishnan sir.
The magazine comprises of writeups related to economy; finance & industry based on our research.
Mr. William McConnell evaluates the 2016 economic conditions, concluding that real growth is at a stall despite full employment. This white paper is part of a three part series. William McConnell will publish a white paper focused on the state of the construction industry next month, followed by the state of the surety industry in July, 2016.
1. Executive Summary of Significant Event for week ending
September 16th, 2016.
WeeklyEXSUM@gmail.com
Twitter: @WeeklyEXSUM
The most significant news of Executive-Level interest for the week - is the cumulative .4% drop in US
Industrial Manufacturing 1.
Background: On September
15, the US Federal Reserve
reported a .4% drop in
Industrial Manufacturing 2.
This is the largest drop
since March 2016, and
counters economists’
prediction for a .2% drop in
August3. The six month
overall manufacturing
average is +.016%, and the following top three industries, which report expansion, include4
:
1. Printing & Related Support Activities
2. Nonmetallic Mineral Products
3. Computer & Electronic Products
The following top three industries reporting contraction include5
:
1. Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components
2. Apparel, Leather & Allied Products
3. Plastics & Rubber Products
Analysis: The six-month US Federal Manufacturing Output reports indicate a slightly unstable
cumulative output. However, the trend-line average is rising slowly. Against a backdrop of the
incalculable global concern of when the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates – this month’s report
is not surprising and does not indicate abnormally threatening economic conditions.
Recommendation: Business decision-makers prepare for continued instability in manufacturing,
and subsequent US consumer purchasing reports, yet need not anticipate their industry to undergo
significant changes from its current trajectory indicators.
1
The manufacturing output, the output of all factories in a country, is a sub-set of industrial output. The industrial
output is the total output of all the facilities producing goods within a country. Defined by Financial Times,
http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=manufacturing-output
2
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/default.htm
3
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/industrial-output-weakens-in-august-2016-09-15
4
https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1
5
ibid.
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
March April May June July August
%INCREASEORDECREASE
MAR - AUG 2016: INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING OUTPUT
Total index Previous estimates