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1 Prepare a written analysis of the financial ratios resulting
from the Week 2 eVal Financial Forecast of the selected
company. This must include trend analysis (historical and
projected) and comparative analysis (cross-sectional or
industry). The analysis needs to examine strengths and
weaknesses revealed by the data. Remember, in a written ratio
analysis the actual ratio data need to be included in the written
analysis in addition to presentation in any accompanying tables
or figures (graphs).
(The company is Kohl’s and I attached the financial forecast
eval that was submitted previously. Please take a look at the
excel and let me know if you have any problems)
2. What are the most important things that you learned from the
study of this week’s readings and assignments? Remember to
always include appropriate references.
TO HELP ANSWER 2 – here are some of the online readings
for the week –
Accounting Tools. Financial Statement Analysis. Available at:
http://www.accountingtools.com/financial-statement-analysis
Accounting for Management. Financial Statement Analysis.
Available at:
http://www.accountingdetails.com/accounting_ratios.htm
Bostrom, Robert E. Compliance, Risk Management, and Internal
Controls: A Checklist for Corporate Counsel – Part II. The
Metropolitan Corporate Counsel. August 2004. Available at:
http://www.metrocorpcounsel.com/articles/4491/compliance-
risk-management-and-internal-controls-checklist-corporate-
counsel-part-ii
Pinnacle Financial Partners. 5C’s of Credit Analysis. Available
at:
https://www.pnfp.com/learning-center/small-business-resource-
center/articles/finance-and-money-matters/5-c%E2%80%99s-of-
credit-analysis/#.Vqpq-fkrJaQ
Lermack, H.B. Steps to a Basic Company Financial Analysis.
May 23, 2003. Available at:
http://faculty.philau.edu/lermackh/financial_analysis.htm
IntroSTEPS:1) enter financial data on the Financial Statements
Sheet,2) examine the Ratio Analysis and Cash Flow Analysis,3)
enter forecasts on the Forecasting Assumptions Sheet to create
future Financial Statement predictions,4) enter cost of capital
assumptions on the Valuation Parameters Sheet to determine the
company's value,5) evaluate the details of the resulting
valuation for either the Residual Income of Discounted Cash
Flow models.Other Useful Links:Where to buy the latest 'Equity
Valuation and Analysis' textbookCheck here for updated
versions of eValSupplements to the textbook cases
© 2012, Russell Lundholm and Richard Sloan.
version 4.00
Russell Lundholm
Richard Sloan
Where to buy the latest 'Equity Valuation and Analysis'
textbook
Supplements to the textbook cases
Check here for updated versions of eVal
Check here for updated versions of eVal
Supplements to the textbook cases
Where to buy the latest 'Equity Valuation and Analysis'
textbook
Financial StatementsFinancial Statements($000s)Data can be
entered manually in financial statements or as a block cut-and-
paste from the Case Data Sheet to the Raw Data Input section
below.Jump to Raw Data InputCompany Name and
TickerKOHL'SKSSLink to Form 10-KsCommon Shares
Outstanding7,154(in 000s at most recent fiscal year
end)Estimated
Price/Share=$83,704.27ActualActualActualActualActualForecas
tForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastFore
castForecastForecastForecastFiscal Year End (YYYY-MM-
DD)2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201
2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31
2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12
/31Income StatementSales
(Net)18,800,00019,280,00019,030,00019,020,00019,200,00019,
417,54919,673,81319,970,19020,308,31520,690,07821,117,646
21,593,47422,120,33722,701,35323,340,01224,040,21224,761,4
18Cost of Goods
Sold1,240,00013,120,00012,980,00012,980,00013,200,00013,34
9,56513,525,74713,729,50613,961,96614,224,42914,518,38114,
845,51315,207,73215,607,18016,046,25816,527,64617,023,475
Gross
Profit20,040,00032,400,00032,010,00032,000,00032,400,00032,
767,11333,199,56033,699,69634,270,28134,914,50735,636,027
36,438,98737,328,06938,308,53339,386,27040,567,85841,784,8
94R&D Expense00000000000000000SG&A
Expense4,240,0004,270,0004,310,0004,350,0004,450,0004,500,
4214,559,8164,628,5084,706,8754,795,3574,894,4545,004,7375
,126,8495,261,5125,409,5345,571,8205,738,975EBITDA24,280,
00036,670,00036,320,00036,350,00036,850,00037,267,53537,7
59,37638,328,20338,977,15639,709,86440,530,48141,443,7254
2,454,91843,570,04544,795,80446,139,67847,523,868Depreciat
ion &
Amortization778,000833,000889,000886,000934,000927,57193
8,952952,226967,466984,7581,004,1971,025,8961,049,9801,07
6,5911,105,8871,138,0461,172,187EBIT25,058,00037,503,0003
7,209,00037,236,00037,784,00038,195,10638,698,32839,280,43
039,944,62240,694,62241,534,67942,469,62143,504,89944,646,
63645,901,69147,277,72348,696,055Net Interest
Expense303,000329,000338,000345,000332,000332,012336,085
340,837346,292352,481359,439367,206375,826385,351395,837
407,348419,569Non-Operating Income
(Loss)1,860,0001,560,000140,0001,350,0001,060,0001,072,010
1,086,1581,102,5211,121,1881,142,2651,165,8701,192,1401,22
1,2271,253,3041,288,5631,327,2201,367,037EBT27,221,00039,
392,00037,687,00038,931,00039,176,00039,599,12840,120,572
40,723,78741,412,10242,189,36743,059,98844,028,96745,101,9
5246,285,29147,586,09149,012,29250,482,660Income
Taxes692,000575,000515,000482,000384,000388,147393,25939
9,171405,918413,537422,071431,568442,086453,685466,43548
0,415494,827Other Income (Loss)00000000000000000Net
Income Before Ext.
Items27,913,00039,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,
987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,058
44,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,4
87Ext. Items & Disc. Ops.00000000000000000Minority Interest
in Earnings00000000000000000Preferred
Dividends00000000000000000Net Income (available to
common)27,913,00039,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00
039,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,
05844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,9
77,487Balance SheetOperating Cash and Market.
Sec.1,210,000537,000971,0001,410,000707,000715,011724,447
735,361747,811761,869777,613795,135814,535835,930859,447
885,231911,788Receivables00025,00026,00026,29526,64227,04
327,50128,01828,59729,24129,95530,74131,60632,55433,531In
ventories320,0003,750,0003,870,0003,810,0004,040,0004,085,7
764,139,6984,202,0614,273,2084,353,5374,443,5054,543,6274,
654,4884,776,7434,911,1275,058,4615,210,215Other Current
Assets371,000434,000447,000452,000305,000308,456312,5273
17,235322,606328,671335,463343,021351,391360,620370,7663
81,889393,345Total Current
Assets1,901,0004,721,0005,288,0005,697,0005,078,0005,135,53
75,203,3145,281,6995,371,1265,472,0955,585,1775,711,0245,8
50,3686,004,0356,172,9476,358,1356,548,879PP&E
(Net)8,910,0008,870,0008,750,0008,520,0008,310,0008,404,158
8,515,0728,643,3488,789,6928,954,9259,139,9819,345,9259,57
3,9599,825,42910,101,84910,404,90410,717,051Investments153
,00053,00064,00000000000000000Intangibles000000000000000
00Other
Assets261,000261,000277,000218,000222,000224,515227,4782
30,905234,815239,229244,173249,675255,766262,484269,8692
77,965286,304Total
Assets11,225,00013,905,00014,379,00014,435,00013,610,00013
,764,21013,945,86514,155,95214,395,63314,666,24814,969,331
15,306,62415,680,09316,091,94916,544,66517,041,00417,552,2
35Current
Debt94,000105,000139,000110,000127,000128,439130,134132,
094134,331136,856139,684142,832146,317150,160154,384159,
016163,786Accounts
Payable1,230,0001,310,0001,370,0001,510,0001,250,0001,264,
1631,280,8471,300,1431,322,1561,347,0101,374,8471,405,8251
,440,1261,477,9531,519,5321,565,1181,612,072Income Taxes
Payable133,000290,00094,00078,000130,000131,473133,20813
5,215137,504140,089142,984146,206149,773153,707158,03116
2,772167,655Other Current
Liabilities1,130,000833,0001,140,00011,600,0001,210,0001,223
,7101,239,8601,258,5381,279,8471,303,9061,330,8521,360,839
1,394,0421,430,6581,470,9071,515,0341,560,485Total Current
Liabilities2,587,0002,538,0002,743,00013,298,0002,717,0002,7
47,7852,784,0502,825,9902,873,8382,927,8622,988,3673,055,7
013,130,2583,212,4783,302,8553,401,9403,503,999Long-Term
Debt4,150,0004,450,0004,720,0004,650,0004,580,0004,631,894
4,693,0244,763,7224,844,3794,935,4465,037,4385,150,9435,27
6,6225,415,2195,567,5655,734,5925,906,630Other
Liabilities460,000512,000560,000562,000563,000569,379576,8
94585,584595,499606,693619,231633,184648,633665,670684,3
97704,929726,077Deferred
Taxes386,000362,000382,000368,000257,000259,912263,34226
7,309271,835276,945282,668289,038296,090303,867312,41632
1,788331,442Total
Liabilities7,583,0007,862,0008,405,00018,878,0008,117,0008,2
08,9718,317,3108,442,6068,585,5528,746,9468,927,7059,128,8
669,351,6039,597,2339,867,23310,163,25010,468,148Minority
Interest00000000000000000Preferred
Stock00000000000000000Paid in Common Capital
(Net)6,510,0006,050,0005,980,00059,900,0005,490,000(46,762,
036)(87,202,551)(128,240,718)(169,962,003)(212,455,687)(255,
815,420)(300,139,824)(345,533,129)(392,105,880)(439,975,690
)(489,268,073)(540,039,228)Retained
Earnings10,200,00010,880,00011,460,00012,010,00012,330,000
52,317,27692,831,106133,954,065175,772,085218,374,989261,
857,047306,317,582351,861,620398,600,595446,653,122496,14
5,828547,123,315Total Common
Equity16,710,00016,930,00017,440,00071,910,00017,820,0005,
555,2395,628,5555,713,3475,810,0825,919,3026,041,6266,177,
7586,328,4906,494,7156,677,4316,877,7547,084,087Total
Liabilities and
Equity24,293,00024,792,00025,845,00090,788,00025,937,00013
,764,21013,945,86514,155,95214,395,63314,666,24814,969,331
15,306,62415,680,09316,091,94916,544,66517,041,00417,552,2
35Error! A =L+E?Statement of Retained EarningsBeg. Retained
Earnings10,200,00010,880,00011,460,00012,010,00012,330,000
52,317,27692,831,106133,954,065175,772,085218,374,989261,
857,047306,317,582351,861,620398,600,595446,653,122496,14
5,828+Net
Income39,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,987,2764
0,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05844,460,53
545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,487-
Common Dividends00000000000000000+/-Clean Surplus Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=End. Retained
Earnings10,880,00011,460,00012,010,00012,330,00052,317,276
92,831,106133,954,065175,772,085218,374,989261,857,047306
,317,582351,861,620398,600,595446,653,122496,145,828547,1
23,315Values for Dupont Analysis and ValuationNet Operating
Income27,602,29739,633,19837,859,38139,063,72939,224,7463
9,652,01040,174,45140,778,78141,468,33442,246,96843,119,09
644,089,73045,164,52846,349,84747,652,80949,081,36550,553,
806Net Financial
Expense310,703333,802342,619349,271335,254335,266339,380
344,177349,686355,936362,962370,805379,510389,129399,717
411,341423,681Net
Income27,913,00039,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,0003
9,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05
844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,
487Effective Tax
Rate(0.0254)(0.0146)(0.0137)(0.0124)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)
(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.00
98)(0.0098)(0.0098)Net Operating
Assets20,954,00021,485,00022,299,00076,670,00022,527,00010
,315,57310,451,71310,609,16410,788,79210,991,60411,218,749
11,471,53311,751,42912,060,09412,399,38112,771,36313,154,5
04Net Financial
Obligations4,244,0004,555,0004,859,0004,760,0004,707,0004,7
60,3334,823,1584,895,8174,978,7105,072,3025,177,1235,293,7
755,422,9395,565,3795,721,9505,893,6086,070,416Total
Common
Equity16,710,00016,930,00017,440,00071,910,00017,820,0005,
555,2395,628,5555,713,3475,810,0825,919,3026,041,6266,177,
7586,328,4906,494,7156,677,4316,877,7547,084,087Raw Data
Inputscut-and-paste raw data block from DataMaker file
hereCompany Name and TickerKOHL'SKSSA Windows vs
Macintosh issue can cause the fiscal year end dates to be off by
roughly 4 years. If this occurs, select and copy the 1462 cell
below, select the cells with the dates, choose Paste Special
Values and select Subtract or Add.Common Shares
Outstanding7,154Fiscal Year End (YYYY-MM-
DD)2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31Sale
s (Net)18,800,00019280000190300001902000019200000Cost of
Goods Sold124000013120000129800001298000013200000R&D
Expense00000SG&A
Expense42400004270000431000043500004450000Depreciation
& Amortization778000833000889000886000934000Interest
Expense303000329000338000345000332000Non-Operating
Income (Loss)1860000156000014000013500001060000Income
Taxes692000575000515000482000384000Minority Interest in
Earnings00000Other Income (Loss)00000Ext. Items & Disc.
Ops.00000Preferred Dividends00000Operating Cash and
Market.
Sec.12100005370009710001410000707000Receivables00025,00
026,000Inventories3200003750000387000038100004040000Oth
er Current Assets371000434000447000452000305000PP&E
(Net)89100008870000875000085200008310000Investments153
000530006400000Intangibles00000Other
Assets261000261000277000218000222000Current
Debt94000105000139000110000127000Accounts
Payable12300001310000137000015100001250000Income Taxes
Payable1330002900009400078000130000Other Current
Liabilities11300008330001140000116000001210000Long-Term
Debt41500004450000472000046500004580000Other
Liabilities460000512000560000562000563000Deferred
Taxes386000362000382000368000257000Minority
Interest00000Preferred Stock00000Paid in Common Capital
(Net)651000060500005980000599000005490000Retained
Earnings1020000010880000114600001201000012330000Comm
on Dividends00000
Jump to Raw Data Input
Ratio AnalysisRatio AnalysisCompany
NameKOHL'SActualActualActualActualActualForecastForecast
ForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForec
astForecastForecastFiscal Year End
Date2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201
2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31
2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12
/31Annual Growth RatesSales2.6%-1.3%-
0.1%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0
%3.0%Assets23.9%3.4%0.4%-
5.7%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.0
%Common Equity1.3%3.0%312.3%-75.2%-
68.8%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.0%Ea
rnings43.2%-
4.4%3.2%0.4%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8
%3.0%3.0%Free Cash Flow to Investors0.0%449962.2%-
192.4%0.0%1.3%1.5%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3
.0%Sustainable Growth
Rate222.3%88.2%88.2%342.1%724.5%725.2%725.8%726.4%72
7.1%727.7%728.3%729.0%729.6%730.2%730.2%ProfitabilityR
eturn on
Equity2.3762.2230.8820.8823.4217.2457.2527.2587.2647.2717.
2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Return on Equity (b4 non-
recurring)2.2822.2150.8520.8583.3297.0497.0557.0617.0687.07
47.0807.0867.0927.0997.1057.105Return on Net Operating
Assets1.8681.7290.7890.7912.4153.8693.8723.8763.8793.8833.
8863.8903.8933.8963.9003.900Basic Dupont ModelNet Profit
Margin1.4852.0732.0072.0722.0602.0592.0592.0592.0592.0592.
0592.0592.0592.0592.0592.0592.059x Total Asset
Turnover1.5341.3461.3201.3691.4191.4201.4211.4231.4241.42
51.4261.4281.4291.4301.4321.432x Total
Leverage1.4591.4731.3051.3011.6982.4782.4782.4782.4782.478
2.4782.4782.4782.4782.4782.478= Return on
Equity4.6413.9803.5713.6704.9627.2457.2527.2587.2647.2717.
2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Advanced Dupont ModelNet
Operating
Margin1.4682.0561.9892.0542.0432.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.
0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.042x Net Operating Asset
Turnover0.9090.8690.3840.3871.1821.8951.8961.8981.9001.90
21.9031.9051.9071.9081.9101.910= Return on Net Operating
Assets1.8681.7290.7890.7912.4153.8693.8723.8763.8793.8833.
8863.8903.8933.8963.9003.900Net Borrowing Cost
(NBC)(0.076)(0.073)(0.073)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071
)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)Sprea
d (RNOA -
NBC)1.9441.8020.8620.8622.4853.9403.9433.9473.9503.9543.9
573.9603.9643.9673.9713.971Financial Leverage
(LEV)0.2620.2740.1080.1060.4050.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.
8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.857ROE = RNOA +
LEV*Spread2.3762.2230.8820.8823.4217.2457.2527.2587.2647.
2717.2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Margin AnalysisGross
Margin1.0661.6801.6821.6821.6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.
6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.688EBITDA
Margin1.2911.9021.9091.9111.9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.
9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.919EBIT
Margin1.3331.9451.9551.9581.9681.9671.9671.9671.9671.9671.
9671.9671.9671.9671.9671.9671.967Net Operating Margin (b4
non-
rec.)1.3671.9741.9821.9821.9871.9861.9861.9861.9861.9861.98
61.9861.9861.9861.9861.9861.986Net Operating
Margin1.4682.0561.9892.0542.0432.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.
0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.042Turnover AnalysisNet
Operating Asset
Turnover0.9090.8690.3840.3871.1821.8951.8961.8981.9001.90
21.9031.9051.9071.9081.9101.910Net Working Capital
Turnover22.7367.655(7.913)(7.675)7.7617.7687.7757.7827.789
7.7967.8037.8107.8177.8247.8317.831Avge Days to Collect
Receivables0.0000.0000.2400.4850.4920.4910.4910.4900.4900.
4890.4890.4880.4880.4880.4870.487Avge Inventory Holding
Period(56.614)(107.138)(107.982)(108.532)(111.086)(110.985)(
110.883)(110.782)(110.681)(110.581)(110.481)(110.382)(110.2
83)(110.184)(110.085)(110.085)Avge Days to Pay
Payables(47.838)(38.033)(40.307)(38.836)(34.489)(34.477)(34.
464)(34.452)(34.440)(34.428)(34.416)(34.404)(34.391)(34.379)
(34.367)(34.367)PP&E
Turnover2.1692.1602.2032.2822.3232.3262.3282.3302.3322.33
42.3362.3382.3402.3432.3452.345Analysis of Leverage- Long-
Term Capital StructureDebt to Equity
Ratio0.2540.2690.2790.0660.2640.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8
570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.857FFO to Total
Debt8.9017.9428.0088.1378.2538.2618.2698.2778.2858.2928.30
08.3088.3168.3238.3318.331CFO to Total
Debt8.0947.95010.2155.8808.2498.2568.2638.2708.2788.2858.2
928.2998.3068.3138.3208.320Analysis of Leverage- Short-Term
LiquidityCurrent
Ratio0.7351.8601.9280.4281.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8
691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.869Quick
Ratio0.4680.2120.3540.1080.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2
700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.270EBIT Interest
Coverage(82.700)(113.991)(110.086)(107.930)(113.807)(115.04
1)(115.144)(115.247)(115.350)(115.452)(115.554)(115.656)(11
5.758)(115.860)(115.961)(116.062)(116.062)EBITDA Interest
Coverage(80.132)(111.459)(107.456)(105.362)(110.994)(112.24
8)(112.351)(112.453)(112.556)(112.658)(112.760)(112.862)(11
2.964)(113.066)(113.167)(113.268)(113.268)Fiscal
Year2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222
0232024202520262027
Cash Flow AnalysisCash Flow Analysis($000)Company
NameKOHL'SActualActualActualActualForecastForecastForeca
stForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastFor
ecastForecastFiscal Year End
Date2008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/312012/12/31201
3/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/31
2019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12/31Pro
Forma Statement of Cash FlowsOperating:Net
Income39,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,987,2764
0,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05844,460,53
545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,487+Depre
ciation &
Amortization(833,000)(889,000)(886,000)(934,000)(927,571)(9
38,952)(952,226)(967,466)(984,758)(1,004,197)(1,025,896)(1,0
49,980)(1,076,591)(1,105,887)(1,138,046)(1,172,187)+Increase
in Deferred
Taxes(24,000)20,000(14,000)(111,000)2,9123,4303,9674,5265,1
105,7236,3697,0527,7778,5499,3729,654+Increase in Other
Liabilities52,00048,0002,0001,0006,3797,5148,6919,91511,194
12,53813,95315,44917,03718,72720,53221,148+Minority
Interest in Earnings0000000000000000+Preferred
Dividends0000000000000000=Funds From
Operations39,162,00037,381,00038,515,00038,516,00039,068,9
9539,585,82340,183,39040,864,99541,634,45142,496,12143,45
4,96044,516,55945,687,19946,973,91548,384,56549,836,102-
Increase in
Receivables00(25,000)(1,000)(295)(347)(401)(458)(517)(579)(6
44)(713)(787)(865)(948)(977)-Increase in
Inventory(3,430,000)(120,000)60,000(230,000)(45,776)(53,922)
(62,363)(71,147)(80,329)(89,967)(100,122)(110,861)(122,255)(
134,384)(147,334)(151,754)-Increase in Other Current
Assets(63,000)(13,000)(5,000)147,000(3,456)(4,071)(4,708)(5,3
71)(6,064)(6,792)(7,559)(8,369)(9,230)(10,145)(11,123)(11,457
)+Increase in Accounts
Payable80,00060,000140,000(260,000)14,16316,68419,29522,0
1324,85427,83630,97834,30137,82741,57945,58646,954+Increa
se in Taxes
Payable157,000(196,000)(16,000)52,0001,4731,7352,0072,2892
,5852,8953,2223,5673,9344,3244,7414,883+Increase in Other
Curr.
Liabilities(297,000)307,00010,460,000(10,390,000)13,71016,15
018,67821,30924,05926,94629,98733,20336,61640,24944,12745
,451=Cash From
Operations35,609,00037,419,00049,129,00027,834,00039,048,8
1639,562,05240,155,89840,833,63041,599,03842,456,46043,41
0,82244,467,68745,633,30446,914,67348,319,61449,769,202Inv
esting:-Capital
Expenditures873,0001,009,0001,116,0001,144,000833,413828,0
37823,951821,122819,526819,141819,952821,947825,120829,4
68834,990860,040-Increase in
Investments100,000(11,000)64,0000000000000000-Purchases of
Intangibles0000000000000000-Increase in Other
Assets0(16,000)59,000(4,000)(2,515)(2,963)(3,427)(3,910)(4,41
4)(4,944)(5,502)(6,092)(6,718)(7,384)(8,096)(8,339)=Cash
From
Investing973,000982,0001,239,0001,140,000830,898825,07482
0,524817,212815,111814,197814,450815,856818,402822,08382
6,894851,701Financing:+Increase in
Debt311,000304,000(99,000)(53,000)53,33362,82572,65982,89
393,592104,821116,652129,164142,440156,571171,658176,808
-Dividends Paid to Minority Interest0000000000000000-
Dividends Paid on Preferred0000000000000000+Increase in
Pref. Stock0000000000000000-Dividends Paid on
Common0000000000000000+/-Net Issuance of Common
Stock(460,000)(70,000)53,920,000(54,410,000)(52,252,036)(40,
440,515)(41,038,167)(41,721,285)(42,493,684)(43,359,734)(44,
324,404)(45,393,306)(46,572,751)(47,869,810)(49,292,383)(50,
771,155)+/-Clean Surplus Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=Cash From
Financing(39,436,000)(37,388,000)14,958,000(93,703,000)(52,1
98,703)(40,377,690)(40,965,508)(41,638,392)(42,400,092)(43,2
54,913)(44,207,751)(45,264,142)(46,430,311)(47,713,239)(49,1
20,725)(50,594,346)Net Change in
Cash(2,854,000)1,013,00065,326,000(64,729,000)(12,318,989)9
,43610,91312,45114,05815,74417,52119,40121,39523,51725,78
326,557+ Beginning Cash
Balance1,210,000537,000971,0001,410,000707,000715,011724,
447735,361747,811761,869777,613795,135814,535835,930859,
447885,231= Ending Cash
Balance(1,644,000)1,550,00066,297,000(63,319,000)(11,611,98
9)724,447735,361747,811761,869777,613795,135814,535835,9
30859,447885,231911,788Free Cash Flow to Common
EquityNet
Income39,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,987,2764
0,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05844,460,53
545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,487-
Increase in Common
Equity(220,000)(510,000)(54,470,000)54,090,00012,264,761(73
,316)(84,792)(96,735)(109,220)(122,324)(136,132)(150,732)(16
6,225)(182,716)(200,323)(206,333)+/-Clean Surplus Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=Free Cash Flow to Common
Equity460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,
51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,3
93,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155Computation
based on SCF:+Cash From
Operations35,609,00037,419,00049,129,00027,834,00039,048,8
1639,562,05240,155,89840,833,63041,599,03842,456,46043,41
0,82244,467,68745,633,30446,914,67348,319,61449,769,202-
Increase in
Cash2,854,000(1,013,000)(65,326,000)64,729,00012,318,989(9,
436)(10,913)(12,451)(14,058)(15,744)(17,521)(19,401)(21,395)
(23,517)(25,783)(26,557)+Cash From
Investing973,000982,0001,239,0001,140,000830,898825,07482
0,524817,212815,111814,197814,450815,856818,402822,08382
6,894851,701+Increase in
Debt311,000304,000(99,000)(53,000)53,33362,82572,65982,89
393,592104,821116,652129,164142,440156,571171,658176,808
-Dividends Paid to Minority Interest0000000000000000-
Dividends Paid on Preferred0000000000000000+Increase in
Preferred Stock0000000000000000+/-Clean Surplus Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=Free Cash Flow to Common
Equity460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,
51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,3
93,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155Financing
Flows:+Dividends Paid0000000000000000-Net Issuance of
Common
Stock460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,5
1541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,39
3,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155= Free Cash
Flow to Common
Equity460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,
51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,3
93,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155Free Cash
Flow to all InvestorsNet Operating
Income39,633,19837,859,38139,063,72939,224,74639,652,0104
0,174,45140,778,78141,468,33442,246,96843,119,09644,089,73
045,164,52846,349,84747,652,80949,081,36550,553,806-
Increase in Net Operating
Assets(531,000)(814,000)(54,371,000)54,143,00012,211,427(13
6,141)(157,450)(179,629)(202,812)(227,145)(252,784)(279,896)
(308,665)(339,287)(371,981)(383,141)+/-Clean Surplus Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=Free Cash Flow to
Investors(184,802)(576,619)(54,170,271)54,127,74651,863,437
40,038,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9
4644,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Comp
utation based on SCF:Cash From
Operations35,609,00037,419,00049,129,00027,834,00039,048,8
1639,562,05240,155,89840,833,63041,599,03842,456,46043,41
0,82244,467,68745,633,30446,914,67348,319,61449,769,202-
Increase in Operating
Cash673,000(434,000)(439,000)703,000(8,011)(9,436)(10,913)(
12,451)(14,058)(15,744)(17,521)(19,401)(21,395)(23,517)(25,7
83)(26,557)+Cash from
Investing973,000982,0001,239,0001,140,000830,898825,07482
0,524817,212815,111814,197814,450815,856818,402822,08382
6,894851,701+Interest
Expense(329,000)(338,000)(345,000)(332,000)(332,012)(336,08
5)(340,837)(346,292)(352,481)(359,439)(367,206)(375,826)(38
5,351)(395,837)(407,348)(419,569)-Tax Shield on
Interest(4,802)(4,619)(4,271)(3,254)(3,254)(3,294)(3,341)(3,39
4)(3,455)(3,523)(3,599)(3,684)(3,777)(3,880)(3,993)(4,113)+/-
Clean Surplus Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=Free Cash Flow to
Investors(2,365,802)2,38110,716,729(9,898,254)39,536,43740,0
38,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9464
4,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Financing
Flows:+Dividends on Common
Stock0000000000000000+Interest
Expense(329,000)(338,000)(345,000)(332,000)(332,012)(336,08
5)(340,837)(346,292)(352,481)(359,439)(367,206)(375,826)(38
5,351)(395,837)(407,348)(419,569)-Tax Shield on
Interest(4,802)(4,619)(4,271)(3,254)(3,254)(3,294)(3,341)(3,39
4)(3,455)(3,523)(3,599)(3,684)(3,777)(3,880)(3,993)(4,113)+Di
vidends on Preferred Stock0000000000000000+Dividends Paid
to Minority Interest0000000000000000-Net Issuance of
Common
Stock460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,5
1541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,39
3,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155-Net Issuance
of
Debt(311,000)(304,000)99,00053,000(53,333)(62,825)(72,659)(
82,893)(93,592)(104,821)(116,652)(129,164)(142,440)(156,571)
(171,658)(176,808)-Net Issuance of Preferred
Stock0000000000000000=Free Cash Flow to
Investors(184,802)(576,619)(54,170,271)54,127,74651,863,437
40,038,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9
4644,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Tradit
ional Computation of
FCF:EBIT37,503,00037,209,00037,236,00037,784,00038,195,10
638,698,32839,280,43039,944,62240,694,62241,534,67942,469,
62143,504,89944,646,63645,901,69147,277,72348,696,055-
Taxes on
EBIT570,198510,381477,729380,746384,893389,964395,83040
2,524410,082418,547427,969438,402449,908462,555476,42249
0,714+Increase in Deferred
Taxes(24,000)20,000(14,000)(111,000)2,9123,4303,9674,5265,1
105,7236,3697,0527,7778,5499,3729,654=
NOPLAT38,049,19837,739,38137,699,72938,053,74638,582,91
139,091,72339,680,22740,351,67241,109,81341,958,94942,903,
95943,950,35345,104,32046,372,79447,763,51849,196,423+Dep
reciation &
Amortization(833,000)(889,000)(886,000)(934,000)(927,571)(9
38,952)(952,226)(967,466)(984,758)(1,004,197)(1,025,896)(1,0
49,980)(1,076,591)(1,105,887)(1,138,046)(1,172,187)+Non-
Operating Income
(Loss)1,560,000140,0001,350,0001,060,0001,072,0101,086,158
1,102,5211,121,1881,142,2651,165,8701,192,1401,221,2271,25
3,3041,288,5631,327,2201,367,037+Other Income
(Loss)0000000000000000+Ext. Items & Disc.
Ops.0000000000000000=Gross Cash
Flow38,776,19836,990,38138,163,72938,179,74638,727,35039,
238,92939,830,52240,505,39441,267,32042,120,62243,070,203
44,121,59945,281,03346,555,47147,952,69249,391,273-
Increase in Working
Capital(2,880,000)(396,000)10,175,000(9,979,000)(28,191)(33,
208)(38,405)(43,815)(49,470)(55,406)(61,659)(68,273)(75,290)
(82,760)(90,734)(93,456)-Capital
Expenditures873,0001,009,0001,116,0001,144,000833,413828,0
37823,951821,122819,526819,141819,952821,947825,120829,4
68834,990860,040-Increase in
Investments100,000(11,000)64,0000000000000000-Purchases of
Intangibles0000000000000000-Increase in Other
Assets0(16,000)59,000(4,000)(2,515)(2,963)(3,427)(3,910)(4,41
4)(4,944)(5,502)(6,092)(6,718)(7,384)(8,096)(8,339)+Increase
in Other
Liabilities52,00048,0002,0001,0006,3797,5148,6919,91511,194
12,53813,95315,44917,03718,72720,53221,148+/-Clean Surplus
Plug
(Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000
00000000=Free Cash Flow to
Investors(2,365,802)2,38110,716,729(9,898,254)39,536,43740,0
38,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9464
4,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Analysis
of Earnings Quality(Red Shading = Quality Flag)Current Op.
Accruals/NOA0.180(0.002)(0.498)0.1420.0010.0020.0030.0030.
0040.0040.0040.0050.0050.0050.0060.006+ Non-Current Op.
Accruals/NOA(0.009)(0.008)(0.016)(0.001)0.0040.0110.0120.0
140.0150.0170.0180.0200.0210.0230.0240.024= Operating
Accruals/NOA0.0610.0182.529(0.710)(0.560)0.0130.0150.0170.
0190.0210.0230.0240.0260.0280.0300.030Sales
Growth0.026(0.013)(0.001)0.0090.0110.0130.0150.0170.0190.0
210.0230.0240.0260.0280.0300.030- NOA Turnover
Growth0.0350.0322.531(0.713)(0.565)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0
000.000(0.000)0.0000.000(0.000)(0.000)-
Interaction0.001(0.000)(0.001)(0.007)(0.006)0.0000.0000.0000.
0000.0000.000(0.000)0.0000.000(0.000)(0.000)= Operating
Accruals/NOA0.0610.0182.529(0.710)(0.560)0.0130.0150.0170.
0190.0210.0230.0240.0260.0280.0300.030Fiscal
Year2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232
024202520262027
Credit AnalysisCredit AnalysisCompany
NameKOHL'SActualActualActualActualActualForecastForecast
ForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForec
astForecastForecastFiscal Year End
Date2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201
2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31
2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12
/31Analysis of Leverage- Long-Term Capital StructureDebt to
Equity
Ratio0.2540.2690.2790.0660.2640.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8
570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.857FFO to Total
Debt8.9017.9428.0088.1378.2538.2618.2698.2778.2858.2928.30
08.3088.3168.3238.3318.331CFO to Total
Debt8.0947.95010.2155.8808.2498.2568.2638.2708.2788.2858.2
928.2998.3068.3138.3208.320Analysis of Leverage- Short-Term
LiquidityCurrent
Ratio0.7351.8601.9280.4281.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8
691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.869Quick
Ratio0.4680.2120.3540.1080.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2
700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.270EBIT Interest
Coverage(82.700)(113.991)(110.086)(107.930)(113.807)(115.04
1)(115.144)(115.247)(115.350)(115.452)(115.554)(115.656)(11
5.758)(115.860)(115.961)(116.062)(116.062)EBITDA Interest
Coverage(80.132)(111.459)(107.456)(105.362)(110.994)(112.24
8)(112.351)(112.453)(112.556)(112.658)(112.760)(112.862)(11
2.964)(113.066)(113.167)(113.268)(113.268)Analysis of Credit
RiskNet Income to Total
Assets2.4872.8742.6572.7302.9072.9052.9052.9052.9052.9052.
9052.9052.9052.9042.9042.9042.904implied default
probability2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0
%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%Total Liabilities to Total
Assets0.6760.5650.5851.3080.5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.
5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.596implied default
probability5.5%4.5%4.5%10.0%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.
5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%Quick
Ratio0.4680.2120.3540.1080.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2
700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.270implied default
probability6.5%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0
%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%EBIT to Interest
Expense(82.70)(113.99)(110.09)(107.93)(113.81)(115.04)(115.1
4)(115.25)(115.35)(115.45)(115.55)(115.66)(115.76)(115.86)(1
15.96)(116.06)(116.06)implied default
probability7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5
%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Inventory Holding Period-
94.19-104.33-108.83-107.14-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-
111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-
111.71implied default
probability3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0
%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Annual Sales Growth0.0%2.6%-
1.3%-
0.1%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0
%3.0%implied default
probability4.2%3.2%4.2%4.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2
%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%Average Implied Default
Probability4.8%4.9%5.0%6.0%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.
9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%Fiscal
Year2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222
0232024202520262027Lookup Table of default
probabilitydecile 1min decile 2min decile 3min decile 4min
decile 5min decile 6min decile 7min decile 8min decile 9min
decile 10NI to TA thresholds-0.448-0.161-
0.0490.0010.0220.0380.0560.0790.118NI to TA default
rates0.0830.080.0720.0550.0450.0300.0250.0200.0200.020TL to
TA
thresholds0.1750.2830.3850.4760.5580.6330.7090.8161.030TL
to TA default
rates0.020.0220.0250.0300.0350.0450.0550.0700.0900.100Quic
k Ratio
thresholds0.3820.5220.8090.9941.2001.4701.8902.5304.550Qui
ck Ratio default
rates0.090.0650.050.0420.0400.0350.0250.0200.0150.010EBIT
to Int thresholds-17.4-3.6-
0.1391.252.2103.3805.2109.16023.800EBIT to Int default
rates0.0750.090.0850.0700.0500.0300.0210.0180.0150.010Inv
Holding
thresholds0.3652.5614.2431.395070.08091.980121.540174.470I
nv Holding default
rates0.030.0350.0390.0400.0420.0450.0490.0550.0600.070Sales
Growth thresholds-0.203-
0.0630.0030.050.0980.1580.2440.3980.797Sales Growth default
rates0.0690.0550.0420.0320.0300.0300.0320.0420.0500.065
Forecasting AssumptionsForecasting AssumptionsCompany
NameKOHL'STERMINALEstimated
Price/Share=$83,704.27YEARActualActualActualActualActualF
orecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForeca
stForecastForecastForecastForecastFiscal Year End
Date2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201
2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31
2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12
/31Implied Return on
Equity2.3762.2230.8820.8823.4217.2457.2527.2587.2647.2717.
2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Income Statement
AssumptionsSales Growth2.6%-1.3%-
0.1%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0
%3.0%Cost of Goods Sold/Sales-6.6%-68.0%-68.2%-68.2%-
68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-
68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-
68.8%R&D/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0
.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%SG&A/Sales-22.6%-
22.1%-22.6%-22.9%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-
23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-
23.2%Dep&Amort/Avge PP&E and Intang.-9.4%-10.1%-10.3%-
11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-
11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%Net Interest Expense/Avge Net
Debt-7.5%-7.2%-7.2%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-
7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%Non-Operating
Income/Sales9.9%8.1%0.7%7.1%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%
5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%Effective Tax Rate-2.5%-
1.5%-1.4%-1.2%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-
1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%Minority Interest/After Tax
Income0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0
.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Other
Income/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Ext. Items & Disc.
Ops./Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0
%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Pref. Dividends/Avge Pref.
Stock0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0
%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Balance Sheet AssumptionsWorking
Capital AssumptionsEnding Operating
Cash/Sales6.4%2.8%5.1%7.4%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7
%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%Ending
Receivables/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0
.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%Ending
Inventories/COGS-25.8%-28.6%-29.8%-29.4%-30.6%-30.6%-
30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-
30.6%-30.6%Ending Other Current
Assets/Sales2.0%2.3%2.3%2.4%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1
.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%Ending Accounts
Payable/COGS-99.2%-10.0%-10.6%-11.6%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-
9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-
9.5%Ending Taxes
Payable/Sales0.7%1.5%0.5%0.4%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%
0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%Ending Other Current
Liabs/Sales6.0%4.3%6.0%61.0%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6
.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%Other Operating Asset
AssumptionsEnding Net
PP&E/Sales47.4%46.0%46.0%44.8%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43
.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%Ending
Investments/Sales0.8%0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0
.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Ending
Intangibles/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.
0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Ending Other
Assets/Sales1.4%1.4%1.5%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1
.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%Other Operating Liability
AssumptionsOther
Liabilities/Sales2.4%2.7%2.9%3.0%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.
9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%Deferred
Taxes/Sales2.1%1.9%2.0%1.9%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.
3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%Financing AssumptionsCurrent
Debt/Total
Assets0.8%0.8%1.0%0.8%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.
9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%Long-Term Debt/Total
Assets37.0%32.0%32.8%32.2%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%3
3.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%Minority
Interest/Total
Assets0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.
0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Preferred Stock/Total
Assets0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.
0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Dividend Payout
Ratio0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0
%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Valuation ParametersValuation ParametersEstimated
Price/Share=$83,704.27Company Name:KOHL'SRequired
Valuation Parameters (to compute value of common
equity):Enter Cost of Equity Capital:10.00%Enter Value of
Contingent Claims on Common Equity ($000):0Enter Date of
Valuation:2012/06/19Enter Dilution Factor for Splits Occurring
Since Latest Fiscal Year End:1.00Optional Valuation
Parameters (to compute value to all investors):Enter Cost of Net
Debt:8.00%Enter Cost of Preferred Stock:9.00%Enter Cost of
Minority Interest:10.00%Adjust the Weighted Average Cost of
Capital Input9.3720%upsuch that the two equity values below
are approximately equal:Equity Value computed directlyEquity
Value computed indirectlyapproximate weighted averagefrom
flows to equityholders:as the Entity Value less non-equity
claims:cost of capital to use as starting
point:83704.2791949.0610.03%
Residual Income ValuationsResidual Income
Valuation($000)Company NameKOHL'SMost Recent Fiscal
Year End12/31/11Date of Valuation6/19/12Cost of Common
Equity10.00%Teriminal Growth Rate3.00%Fiscal Year of
Forecast2012/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/31
2017/12/312018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12
/312023/12/31(53,655,643)Valuation to Common EquityNet
Income39,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,9044
3,482,05844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70
650,977,487Common Equity at Beginning of
Year17,820,0005,555,2395,628,5555,713,3475,810,0825,919,30
26,041,6266,177,7586,328,4906,494,7156,677,4316,877,754Res
idual
Income38,205,27639,958,30740,560,10341,246,68642,021,8964
2,890,12843,856,37244,926,26246,106,12747,403,05548,824,96
350,289,712Present Value of Residual
Income34,732,06933,023,39430,473,40628,172,04126,092,2912
4,210,35922,505,25420,958,43319,553,49918,275,93017,112,85
216,023,852Present Value Beyond 10 Years268,916,240Present
Value of First 10 Years257,996,674Common Equity as
of12/31/1117,820,000Forecast Equity Value Before Time
Adj.544,732,915Forecasted Value as of Valuation
Date598,820,354Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value
Attributable to Common Equity598,820,354Common Shares
Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation
Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$83,704.27Valuation to All
InvestorsCost of Debt8.00%Cost of Preferred Stock9.00%Cost
of Minority Interest10.00%After Tax Weighted Average Cost of
Capital9.37%Net Interest Expense to Net
Debtholders(332,012)(336,085)(340,837)(346,292)(352,481)(35
9,439)(367,206)(375,826)(385,351)(395,837)(407,348)(419,569)
Beginning Book Value of
Debt4,707,0004,760,3334,823,1584,895,8174,978,7105,072,302
5,177,1235,293,7755,422,9395,565,3795,721,9505,893,608Resi
dual Interest
Expense(708,572)(716,912)(726,689)(737,957)(750,778)(765,22
3)(781,376)(799,328)(819,186)(841,068)(865,104)(891,057)Pres
ent Value of Residual Interest
Income(656,085)(614,636)(576,869)(542,420)(510,967)(482,22
0)(455,925)(431,852)(409,797)(389,577)(371,028)(353,851)Val
ue of Debt(8,377,562)Dividends to Preferred
Stockholders000000000000Beginning Book Value of Preferred
Stock000000000000Residual Income to Preferred
Stock000000000000Present Value of Preferred Residual
Income000000000000Value of Preferred Stock0Minority
Interest in Earnings000000000000Beginning Book Value of
Minority Interest000000000000Residual Income to Minority
Interest000000000000Present Value of MI Residual
Income000000000000Value of Minority Interest0Net Operating
Income39,652,01040,174,45140,778,78141,468,33442,246,9684
3,119,09644,089,73045,164,52846,349,84747,652,80949,081,36
550,553,806Beginning Net Operating
Assets22,527,00010,315,57310,451,71310,609,16410,788,79210
,991,60411,218,74911,471,53311,751,42912,060,09412,399,381
12,771,363Residual Income to all
Investors37,540,77939,207,67639,799,24640,474,04341,235,84
242,088,96343,038,30944,089,41645,248,50346,522,53747,919,
29549,356,874Present Value of Residual Investor
Income34,323,93932,776,21430,419,80228,284,72626,347,7852
4,588,45822,988,57921,532,03720,204,53418,993,36217,887,21
516,845,108Entity Value590,010,995Less Value of
Debt8,377,562Less Value of Preferred Stock0Less Value of
Minority Interest0Forecast Equity Value Before Time
Adj.598,388,557Forecasted Value as of Valuation
Date657,803,555Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value
Attributable to Common Equity657,803,555Common Shares
Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation
Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$91,949.06
DCF ValuationsDCF Valuations($000)Company
NameKOHL'SMost Recent Fiscal Year End12/31/11Date of
Valuation6/19/12Cost of Common Equity10.00%Terminal
Growth Rate3.00%Fiscal Year of
Forecast2012/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/31
2017/12/312018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12
/312023/12/31-53655642.8830Valuation to Common EquityFree
Cash Flow to Common
Equity52,252,03640,440,51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443
,359,73444,324,40445,393,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,383
50,771,155Present Value of
FCF47,501,85133,421,91330,832,58228,496,19926,385,23424,4
75,43922,745,42821,176,31219,751,39318,455,88417,276,6801
6,177,255Present Value Beyond 10 Years271,490,679Present
Value of First 10 Years273,242,235Forecast Equity Value
Before Time Adj.544,732,915Forecasted Value as of Valuation
Date598,820,354Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value
Attributable to Common Equity598,820,354Common Shares
Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation
Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$83,704.27Valuation to All
InvestorsCost of Net Debt8.00%Cost of Preferred
Stock9.00%Cost of Minority Interest10.00%After Tax Weighted
Average Cost of Capital9.37%Free Cash Flow to
Debt(385,345)(398,910)(413,495)(429,185)(446,073)(464,260)(
483,858)(504,990)(527,791)(552,409)(579,007)(596,377)Presen
t Value of FCF to
Debt(356,801)(342,001)(328,246)(315,464)(303,590)(292,562)(
282,327)(272,831)(264,027)(255,872)(248,326)(236,829)Value
of Debt(8,377,562)Free Cash Flow to Preferred
Stock000000000000Present Value of FCF to Preferred
Stock000000000000Value of Preferred Stock0Free Cash Flow to
Minority Interest000000000000Present Value of FCF to
Minority Interest000000000000Value of Minority Interest0Free
Cash Flows to
Investors51,863,43740,038,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15
642,891,95143,836,94644,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,
38450,170,665Present Value of FCF to
Investors47,419,30033,470,59531,048,14728,854,04226,864,25
925,057,56623,415,16521,920,39820,558,48419,316,29118,182,
13817,122,848Entity Value590,010,995Less Value of Net
Debt8,377,562Less Value of Preferred Stock0Less Value of
Minority Interest0Forecast Equity Value Before Time
Adj.598,388,557Forecasted Value as of Valuation
Date657,803,555Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value
Attributable to Common Equity657,803,555Common Shares
Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation
Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$91,949.06
EPS ForecasterEPS Forecaster($000, except per share
amounts)Company NameKOHL'SCommon Shares Outstanding
at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation
Date7,154Forecasted Price at Valuation
Date$83,704.27ForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForeca
stForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastFiscal Year
of
Forecast2012/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/31
2017/12/312018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12
/312023/12/31Net
Income39,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,9044
3,482,05844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70
650,977,487Common Equity Issued
(Repurchased)(52,252,036)(40,440,515)(41,038,167)(41,721,28
5)(42,493,684)(43,359,734)(44,324,404)(45,393,306)(46,572,75
1)(47,869,810)(49,292,383)(50,771,155)Forecasted Price at
Year
End$88,145.25$96,959.77$106,655.75$117,321.32$129,053.46$
141,958.80$156,154.68$171,770.15$188,947.17$207,841.88$22
8,626.07$251,488.68New Shares Issued
(Repurchased)(593)(417)(385)(356)(329)(305)(284)(264)(246)(
230)(216)(202)Shares Outstanding at End of
Year6,5616,1445,7595,4045,0744,7694,4854,2213,9743,7443,52
83,327Forecast
EPS$5,831.09$6,377.46$6,909.41$7,492.20$8,131.73$8,834.69
$9,608.73$10,462.59$11,406.26$12,451.23$13,610.74$14,872.8
4Consensus Analyst Forecast of EPSForecast Five Year Growth
Rate in EPS9%Consensus Analyst Forecast of Growth RateTo
obtain analyst forecasts, click here
Although not a necessary input for eVal, we recommend that
you find the analyst forecasts for your company and store them
in the yellow-shaded cells for comparison purposes.
Model SummaryModel SummaryHistorical Data
For:KOHL'SMost Recent Fiscal Year End:2011/12/31Average
ROE (last five years)159.08%Sales Growth (last five
years)0.53%Forecast Data:Forecast Horizon10 yearsThis Year's
ROE342.13%Terminal Year's ROE730.24%This Year's Sales
Growth1.13%Terminal Year's Sales Growth3.00%This Year's
Forecast EPS$5,831.09Forecast 5 Year EPS
Growth8.66%Valuation Data:Cost of Equity
Capital10.00%Valuation Date2012/06/19Estimated
Price/Share$83,704.27Estimated Price/Earnings
Ratio14.35Estimated Market/Book Ratio33.60

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  • 1. 1 Prepare a written analysis of the financial ratios resulting from the Week 2 eVal Financial Forecast of the selected company. This must include trend analysis (historical and projected) and comparative analysis (cross-sectional or industry). The analysis needs to examine strengths and weaknesses revealed by the data. Remember, in a written ratio analysis the actual ratio data need to be included in the written analysis in addition to presentation in any accompanying tables or figures (graphs). (The company is Kohl’s and I attached the financial forecast eval that was submitted previously. Please take a look at the excel and let me know if you have any problems) 2. What are the most important things that you learned from the study of this week’s readings and assignments? Remember to always include appropriate references. TO HELP ANSWER 2 – here are some of the online readings for the week – Accounting Tools. Financial Statement Analysis. Available at: http://www.accountingtools.com/financial-statement-analysis Accounting for Management. Financial Statement Analysis. Available at: http://www.accountingdetails.com/accounting_ratios.htm Bostrom, Robert E. Compliance, Risk Management, and Internal Controls: A Checklist for Corporate Counsel – Part II. The Metropolitan Corporate Counsel. August 2004. Available at: http://www.metrocorpcounsel.com/articles/4491/compliance-
  • 2. risk-management-and-internal-controls-checklist-corporate- counsel-part-ii Pinnacle Financial Partners. 5C’s of Credit Analysis. Available at: https://www.pnfp.com/learning-center/small-business-resource- center/articles/finance-and-money-matters/5-c%E2%80%99s-of- credit-analysis/#.Vqpq-fkrJaQ Lermack, H.B. Steps to a Basic Company Financial Analysis. May 23, 2003. Available at: http://faculty.philau.edu/lermackh/financial_analysis.htm IntroSTEPS:1) enter financial data on the Financial Statements Sheet,2) examine the Ratio Analysis and Cash Flow Analysis,3) enter forecasts on the Forecasting Assumptions Sheet to create future Financial Statement predictions,4) enter cost of capital assumptions on the Valuation Parameters Sheet to determine the company's value,5) evaluate the details of the resulting valuation for either the Residual Income of Discounted Cash Flow models.Other Useful Links:Where to buy the latest 'Equity Valuation and Analysis' textbookCheck here for updated versions of eValSupplements to the textbook cases © 2012, Russell Lundholm and Richard Sloan. version 4.00 Russell Lundholm Richard Sloan Where to buy the latest 'Equity Valuation and Analysis' textbook Supplements to the textbook cases Check here for updated versions of eVal Check here for updated versions of eVal Supplements to the textbook cases Where to buy the latest 'Equity Valuation and Analysis' textbook
  • 3. Financial StatementsFinancial Statements($000s)Data can be entered manually in financial statements or as a block cut-and- paste from the Case Data Sheet to the Raw Data Input section below.Jump to Raw Data InputCompany Name and TickerKOHL'SKSSLink to Form 10-KsCommon Shares Outstanding7,154(in 000s at most recent fiscal year end)Estimated Price/Share=$83,704.27ActualActualActualActualActualForecas tForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastFore castForecastForecastForecastFiscal Year End (YYYY-MM- DD)2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201 2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31 2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12 /31Income StatementSales (Net)18,800,00019,280,00019,030,00019,020,00019,200,00019, 417,54919,673,81319,970,19020,308,31520,690,07821,117,646 21,593,47422,120,33722,701,35323,340,01224,040,21224,761,4 18Cost of Goods Sold1,240,00013,120,00012,980,00012,980,00013,200,00013,34 9,56513,525,74713,729,50613,961,96614,224,42914,518,38114, 845,51315,207,73215,607,18016,046,25816,527,64617,023,475 Gross Profit20,040,00032,400,00032,010,00032,000,00032,400,00032, 767,11333,199,56033,699,69634,270,28134,914,50735,636,027 36,438,98737,328,06938,308,53339,386,27040,567,85841,784,8 94R&D Expense00000000000000000SG&A Expense4,240,0004,270,0004,310,0004,350,0004,450,0004,500, 4214,559,8164,628,5084,706,8754,795,3574,894,4545,004,7375 ,126,8495,261,5125,409,5345,571,8205,738,975EBITDA24,280, 00036,670,00036,320,00036,350,00036,850,00037,267,53537,7 59,37638,328,20338,977,15639,709,86440,530,48141,443,7254 2,454,91843,570,04544,795,80446,139,67847,523,868Depreciat ion & Amortization778,000833,000889,000886,000934,000927,57193 8,952952,226967,466984,7581,004,1971,025,8961,049,9801,07 6,5911,105,8871,138,0461,172,187EBIT25,058,00037,503,0003
  • 4. 7,209,00037,236,00037,784,00038,195,10638,698,32839,280,43 039,944,62240,694,62241,534,67942,469,62143,504,89944,646, 63645,901,69147,277,72348,696,055Net Interest Expense303,000329,000338,000345,000332,000332,012336,085 340,837346,292352,481359,439367,206375,826385,351395,837 407,348419,569Non-Operating Income (Loss)1,860,0001,560,000140,0001,350,0001,060,0001,072,010 1,086,1581,102,5211,121,1881,142,2651,165,8701,192,1401,22 1,2271,253,3041,288,5631,327,2201,367,037EBT27,221,00039, 392,00037,687,00038,931,00039,176,00039,599,12840,120,572 40,723,78741,412,10242,189,36743,059,98844,028,96745,101,9 5246,285,29147,586,09149,012,29250,482,660Income Taxes692,000575,000515,000482,000384,000388,147393,25939 9,171405,918413,537422,071431,568442,086453,685466,43548 0,415494,827Other Income (Loss)00000000000000000Net Income Before Ext. Items27,913,00039,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039, 987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,058 44,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,4 87Ext. Items & Disc. Ops.00000000000000000Minority Interest in Earnings00000000000000000Preferred Dividends00000000000000000Net Income (available to common)27,913,00039,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00 039,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482, 05844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,9 77,487Balance SheetOperating Cash and Market. Sec.1,210,000537,000971,0001,410,000707,000715,011724,447 735,361747,811761,869777,613795,135814,535835,930859,447 885,231911,788Receivables00025,00026,00026,29526,64227,04 327,50128,01828,59729,24129,95530,74131,60632,55433,531In ventories320,0003,750,0003,870,0003,810,0004,040,0004,085,7 764,139,6984,202,0614,273,2084,353,5374,443,5054,543,6274, 654,4884,776,7434,911,1275,058,4615,210,215Other Current Assets371,000434,000447,000452,000305,000308,456312,5273 17,235322,606328,671335,463343,021351,391360,620370,7663 81,889393,345Total Current
  • 5. Assets1,901,0004,721,0005,288,0005,697,0005,078,0005,135,53 75,203,3145,281,6995,371,1265,472,0955,585,1775,711,0245,8 50,3686,004,0356,172,9476,358,1356,548,879PP&E (Net)8,910,0008,870,0008,750,0008,520,0008,310,0008,404,158 8,515,0728,643,3488,789,6928,954,9259,139,9819,345,9259,57 3,9599,825,42910,101,84910,404,90410,717,051Investments153 ,00053,00064,00000000000000000Intangibles000000000000000 00Other Assets261,000261,000277,000218,000222,000224,515227,4782 30,905234,815239,229244,173249,675255,766262,484269,8692 77,965286,304Total Assets11,225,00013,905,00014,379,00014,435,00013,610,00013 ,764,21013,945,86514,155,95214,395,63314,666,24814,969,331 15,306,62415,680,09316,091,94916,544,66517,041,00417,552,2 35Current Debt94,000105,000139,000110,000127,000128,439130,134132, 094134,331136,856139,684142,832146,317150,160154,384159, 016163,786Accounts Payable1,230,0001,310,0001,370,0001,510,0001,250,0001,264, 1631,280,8471,300,1431,322,1561,347,0101,374,8471,405,8251 ,440,1261,477,9531,519,5321,565,1181,612,072Income Taxes Payable133,000290,00094,00078,000130,000131,473133,20813 5,215137,504140,089142,984146,206149,773153,707158,03116 2,772167,655Other Current Liabilities1,130,000833,0001,140,00011,600,0001,210,0001,223 ,7101,239,8601,258,5381,279,8471,303,9061,330,8521,360,839 1,394,0421,430,6581,470,9071,515,0341,560,485Total Current Liabilities2,587,0002,538,0002,743,00013,298,0002,717,0002,7 47,7852,784,0502,825,9902,873,8382,927,8622,988,3673,055,7 013,130,2583,212,4783,302,8553,401,9403,503,999Long-Term Debt4,150,0004,450,0004,720,0004,650,0004,580,0004,631,894 4,693,0244,763,7224,844,3794,935,4465,037,4385,150,9435,27 6,6225,415,2195,567,5655,734,5925,906,630Other Liabilities460,000512,000560,000562,000563,000569,379576,8 94585,584595,499606,693619,231633,184648,633665,670684,3 97704,929726,077Deferred
  • 6. Taxes386,000362,000382,000368,000257,000259,912263,34226 7,309271,835276,945282,668289,038296,090303,867312,41632 1,788331,442Total Liabilities7,583,0007,862,0008,405,00018,878,0008,117,0008,2 08,9718,317,3108,442,6068,585,5528,746,9468,927,7059,128,8 669,351,6039,597,2339,867,23310,163,25010,468,148Minority Interest00000000000000000Preferred Stock00000000000000000Paid in Common Capital (Net)6,510,0006,050,0005,980,00059,900,0005,490,000(46,762, 036)(87,202,551)(128,240,718)(169,962,003)(212,455,687)(255, 815,420)(300,139,824)(345,533,129)(392,105,880)(439,975,690 )(489,268,073)(540,039,228)Retained Earnings10,200,00010,880,00011,460,00012,010,00012,330,000 52,317,27692,831,106133,954,065175,772,085218,374,989261, 857,047306,317,582351,861,620398,600,595446,653,122496,14 5,828547,123,315Total Common Equity16,710,00016,930,00017,440,00071,910,00017,820,0005, 555,2395,628,5555,713,3475,810,0825,919,3026,041,6266,177, 7586,328,4906,494,7156,677,4316,877,7547,084,087Total Liabilities and Equity24,293,00024,792,00025,845,00090,788,00025,937,00013 ,764,21013,945,86514,155,95214,395,63314,666,24814,969,331 15,306,62415,680,09316,091,94916,544,66517,041,00417,552,2 35Error! A =L+E?Statement of Retained EarningsBeg. Retained Earnings10,200,00010,880,00011,460,00012,010,00012,330,000 52,317,27692,831,106133,954,065175,772,085218,374,989261, 857,047306,317,582351,861,620398,600,595446,653,122496,14 5,828+Net Income39,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,987,2764 0,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05844,460,53 545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,487- Common Dividends00000000000000000+/-Clean Surplus Plug (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=End. Retained Earnings10,880,00011,460,00012,010,00012,330,00052,317,276 92,831,106133,954,065175,772,085218,374,989261,857,047306
  • 7. ,317,582351,861,620398,600,595446,653,122496,145,828547,1 23,315Values for Dupont Analysis and ValuationNet Operating Income27,602,29739,633,19837,859,38139,063,72939,224,7463 9,652,01040,174,45140,778,78141,468,33442,246,96843,119,09 644,089,73045,164,52846,349,84747,652,80949,081,36550,553, 806Net Financial Expense310,703333,802342,619349,271335,254335,266339,380 344,177349,686355,936362,962370,805379,510389,129399,717 411,341423,681Net Income27,913,00039,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,0003 9,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05 844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977, 487Effective Tax Rate(0.0254)(0.0146)(0.0137)(0.0124)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098) (0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.0098)(0.00 98)(0.0098)(0.0098)Net Operating Assets20,954,00021,485,00022,299,00076,670,00022,527,00010 ,315,57310,451,71310,609,16410,788,79210,991,60411,218,749 11,471,53311,751,42912,060,09412,399,38112,771,36313,154,5 04Net Financial Obligations4,244,0004,555,0004,859,0004,760,0004,707,0004,7 60,3334,823,1584,895,8174,978,7105,072,3025,177,1235,293,7 755,422,9395,565,3795,721,9505,893,6086,070,416Total Common Equity16,710,00016,930,00017,440,00071,910,00017,820,0005, 555,2395,628,5555,713,3475,810,0825,919,3026,041,6266,177, 7586,328,4906,494,7156,677,4316,877,7547,084,087Raw Data Inputscut-and-paste raw data block from DataMaker file hereCompany Name and TickerKOHL'SKSSA Windows vs Macintosh issue can cause the fiscal year end dates to be off by roughly 4 years. If this occurs, select and copy the 1462 cell below, select the cells with the dates, choose Paste Special Values and select Subtract or Add.Common Shares Outstanding7,154Fiscal Year End (YYYY-MM- DD)2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31Sale s (Net)18,800,00019280000190300001902000019200000Cost of
  • 8. Goods Sold124000013120000129800001298000013200000R&D Expense00000SG&A Expense42400004270000431000043500004450000Depreciation & Amortization778000833000889000886000934000Interest Expense303000329000338000345000332000Non-Operating Income (Loss)1860000156000014000013500001060000Income Taxes692000575000515000482000384000Minority Interest in Earnings00000Other Income (Loss)00000Ext. Items & Disc. Ops.00000Preferred Dividends00000Operating Cash and Market. Sec.12100005370009710001410000707000Receivables00025,00 026,000Inventories3200003750000387000038100004040000Oth er Current Assets371000434000447000452000305000PP&E (Net)89100008870000875000085200008310000Investments153 000530006400000Intangibles00000Other Assets261000261000277000218000222000Current Debt94000105000139000110000127000Accounts Payable12300001310000137000015100001250000Income Taxes Payable1330002900009400078000130000Other Current Liabilities11300008330001140000116000001210000Long-Term Debt41500004450000472000046500004580000Other Liabilities460000512000560000562000563000Deferred Taxes386000362000382000368000257000Minority Interest00000Preferred Stock00000Paid in Common Capital (Net)651000060500005980000599000005490000Retained Earnings1020000010880000114600001201000012330000Comm on Dividends00000 Jump to Raw Data Input Ratio AnalysisRatio AnalysisCompany NameKOHL'SActualActualActualActualActualForecastForecast ForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForec astForecastForecastFiscal Year End Date2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201 2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31 2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12 /31Annual Growth RatesSales2.6%-1.3%-
  • 9. 0.1%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0 %3.0%Assets23.9%3.4%0.4%- 5.7%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.0 %Common Equity1.3%3.0%312.3%-75.2%- 68.8%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3.0%Ea rnings43.2%- 4.4%3.2%0.4%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8 %3.0%3.0%Free Cash Flow to Investors0.0%449962.2%- 192.4%0.0%1.3%1.5%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.2%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0%3 .0%Sustainable Growth Rate222.3%88.2%88.2%342.1%724.5%725.2%725.8%726.4%72 7.1%727.7%728.3%729.0%729.6%730.2%730.2%ProfitabilityR eturn on Equity2.3762.2230.8820.8823.4217.2457.2527.2587.2647.2717. 2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Return on Equity (b4 non- recurring)2.2822.2150.8520.8583.3297.0497.0557.0617.0687.07 47.0807.0867.0927.0997.1057.105Return on Net Operating Assets1.8681.7290.7890.7912.4153.8693.8723.8763.8793.8833. 8863.8903.8933.8963.9003.900Basic Dupont ModelNet Profit Margin1.4852.0732.0072.0722.0602.0592.0592.0592.0592.0592. 0592.0592.0592.0592.0592.0592.059x Total Asset Turnover1.5341.3461.3201.3691.4191.4201.4211.4231.4241.42 51.4261.4281.4291.4301.4321.432x Total Leverage1.4591.4731.3051.3011.6982.4782.4782.4782.4782.478 2.4782.4782.4782.4782.4782.478= Return on Equity4.6413.9803.5713.6704.9627.2457.2527.2587.2647.2717. 2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Advanced Dupont ModelNet Operating Margin1.4682.0561.9892.0542.0432.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422. 0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.042x Net Operating Asset Turnover0.9090.8690.3840.3871.1821.8951.8961.8981.9001.90 21.9031.9051.9071.9081.9101.910= Return on Net Operating Assets1.8681.7290.7890.7912.4153.8693.8723.8763.8793.8833. 8863.8903.8933.8963.9003.900Net Borrowing Cost (NBC)(0.076)(0.073)(0.073)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071 )(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)(0.071)Sprea
  • 10. d (RNOA - NBC)1.9441.8020.8620.8622.4853.9403.9433.9473.9503.9543.9 573.9603.9643.9673.9713.971Financial Leverage (LEV)0.2620.2740.1080.1060.4050.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570. 8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.857ROE = RNOA + LEV*Spread2.3762.2230.8820.8823.4217.2457.2527.2587.2647. 2717.2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Margin AnalysisGross Margin1.0661.6801.6821.6821.6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.6881. 6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.6881.688EBITDA Margin1.2911.9021.9091.9111.9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.9191. 9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.9191.919EBIT Margin1.3331.9451.9551.9581.9681.9671.9671.9671.9671.9671. 9671.9671.9671.9671.9671.9671.967Net Operating Margin (b4 non- rec.)1.3671.9741.9821.9821.9871.9861.9861.9861.9861.9861.98 61.9861.9861.9861.9861.9861.986Net Operating Margin1.4682.0561.9892.0542.0432.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422. 0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.0422.042Turnover AnalysisNet Operating Asset Turnover0.9090.8690.3840.3871.1821.8951.8961.8981.9001.90 21.9031.9051.9071.9081.9101.910Net Working Capital Turnover22.7367.655(7.913)(7.675)7.7617.7687.7757.7827.789 7.7967.8037.8107.8177.8247.8317.831Avge Days to Collect Receivables0.0000.0000.2400.4850.4920.4910.4910.4900.4900. 4890.4890.4880.4880.4880.4870.487Avge Inventory Holding Period(56.614)(107.138)(107.982)(108.532)(111.086)(110.985)( 110.883)(110.782)(110.681)(110.581)(110.481)(110.382)(110.2 83)(110.184)(110.085)(110.085)Avge Days to Pay Payables(47.838)(38.033)(40.307)(38.836)(34.489)(34.477)(34. 464)(34.452)(34.440)(34.428)(34.416)(34.404)(34.391)(34.379) (34.367)(34.367)PP&E Turnover2.1692.1602.2032.2822.3232.3262.3282.3302.3322.33 42.3362.3382.3402.3432.3452.345Analysis of Leverage- Long- Term Capital StructureDebt to Equity Ratio0.2540.2690.2790.0660.2640.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8 570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.857FFO to Total
  • 11. Debt8.9017.9428.0088.1378.2538.2618.2698.2778.2858.2928.30 08.3088.3168.3238.3318.331CFO to Total Debt8.0947.95010.2155.8808.2498.2568.2638.2708.2788.2858.2 928.2998.3068.3138.3208.320Analysis of Leverage- Short-Term LiquidityCurrent Ratio0.7351.8601.9280.4281.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8 691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.869Quick Ratio0.4680.2120.3540.1080.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2 700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.270EBIT Interest Coverage(82.700)(113.991)(110.086)(107.930)(113.807)(115.04 1)(115.144)(115.247)(115.350)(115.452)(115.554)(115.656)(11 5.758)(115.860)(115.961)(116.062)(116.062)EBITDA Interest Coverage(80.132)(111.459)(107.456)(105.362)(110.994)(112.24 8)(112.351)(112.453)(112.556)(112.658)(112.760)(112.862)(11 2.964)(113.066)(113.167)(113.268)(113.268)Fiscal Year2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222 0232024202520262027 Cash Flow AnalysisCash Flow Analysis($000)Company NameKOHL'SActualActualActualActualForecastForecastForeca stForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastFor ecastForecastFiscal Year End Date2008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/312012/12/31201 3/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/31 2019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12/31Pro Forma Statement of Cash FlowsOperating:Net Income39,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,987,2764 0,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05844,460,53 545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,487+Depre ciation & Amortization(833,000)(889,000)(886,000)(934,000)(927,571)(9 38,952)(952,226)(967,466)(984,758)(1,004,197)(1,025,896)(1,0 49,980)(1,076,591)(1,105,887)(1,138,046)(1,172,187)+Increase in Deferred Taxes(24,000)20,000(14,000)(111,000)2,9123,4303,9674,5265,1 105,7236,3697,0527,7778,5499,3729,654+Increase in Other Liabilities52,00048,0002,0001,0006,3797,5148,6919,91511,194
  • 12. 12,53813,95315,44917,03718,72720,53221,148+Minority Interest in Earnings0000000000000000+Preferred Dividends0000000000000000=Funds From Operations39,162,00037,381,00038,515,00038,516,00039,068,9 9539,585,82340,183,39040,864,99541,634,45142,496,12143,45 4,96044,516,55945,687,19946,973,91548,384,56549,836,102- Increase in Receivables00(25,000)(1,000)(295)(347)(401)(458)(517)(579)(6 44)(713)(787)(865)(948)(977)-Increase in Inventory(3,430,000)(120,000)60,000(230,000)(45,776)(53,922) (62,363)(71,147)(80,329)(89,967)(100,122)(110,861)(122,255)( 134,384)(147,334)(151,754)-Increase in Other Current Assets(63,000)(13,000)(5,000)147,000(3,456)(4,071)(4,708)(5,3 71)(6,064)(6,792)(7,559)(8,369)(9,230)(10,145)(11,123)(11,457 )+Increase in Accounts Payable80,00060,000140,000(260,000)14,16316,68419,29522,0 1324,85427,83630,97834,30137,82741,57945,58646,954+Increa se in Taxes Payable157,000(196,000)(16,000)52,0001,4731,7352,0072,2892 ,5852,8953,2223,5673,9344,3244,7414,883+Increase in Other Curr. Liabilities(297,000)307,00010,460,000(10,390,000)13,71016,15 018,67821,30924,05926,94629,98733,20336,61640,24944,12745 ,451=Cash From Operations35,609,00037,419,00049,129,00027,834,00039,048,8 1639,562,05240,155,89840,833,63041,599,03842,456,46043,41 0,82244,467,68745,633,30446,914,67348,319,61449,769,202Inv esting:-Capital Expenditures873,0001,009,0001,116,0001,144,000833,413828,0 37823,951821,122819,526819,141819,952821,947825,120829,4 68834,990860,040-Increase in Investments100,000(11,000)64,0000000000000000-Purchases of Intangibles0000000000000000-Increase in Other Assets0(16,000)59,000(4,000)(2,515)(2,963)(3,427)(3,910)(4,41 4)(4,944)(5,502)(6,092)(6,718)(7,384)(8,096)(8,339)=Cash From
  • 13. Investing973,000982,0001,239,0001,140,000830,898825,07482 0,524817,212815,111814,197814,450815,856818,402822,08382 6,894851,701Financing:+Increase in Debt311,000304,000(99,000)(53,000)53,33362,82572,65982,89 393,592104,821116,652129,164142,440156,571171,658176,808 -Dividends Paid to Minority Interest0000000000000000- Dividends Paid on Preferred0000000000000000+Increase in Pref. Stock0000000000000000-Dividends Paid on Common0000000000000000+/-Net Issuance of Common Stock(460,000)(70,000)53,920,000(54,410,000)(52,252,036)(40, 440,515)(41,038,167)(41,721,285)(42,493,684)(43,359,734)(44, 324,404)(45,393,306)(46,572,751)(47,869,810)(49,292,383)(50, 771,155)+/-Clean Surplus Plug (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=Cash From Financing(39,436,000)(37,388,000)14,958,000(93,703,000)(52,1 98,703)(40,377,690)(40,965,508)(41,638,392)(42,400,092)(43,2 54,913)(44,207,751)(45,264,142)(46,430,311)(47,713,239)(49,1 20,725)(50,594,346)Net Change in Cash(2,854,000)1,013,00065,326,000(64,729,000)(12,318,989)9 ,43610,91312,45114,05815,74417,52119,40121,39523,51725,78 326,557+ Beginning Cash Balance1,210,000537,000971,0001,410,000707,000715,011724, 447735,361747,811761,869777,613795,135814,535835,930859, 447885,231= Ending Cash Balance(1,644,000)1,550,00066,297,000(63,319,000)(11,611,98 9)724,447735,361747,811761,869777,613795,135814,535835,9 30859,447885,231911,788Free Cash Flow to Common EquityNet Income39,967,00038,202,00039,413,00039,560,00039,987,2764 0,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,90443,482,05844,460,53 545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70650,977,487- Increase in Common Equity(220,000)(510,000)(54,470,000)54,090,00012,264,761(73 ,316)(84,792)(96,735)(109,220)(122,324)(136,132)(150,732)(16 6,225)(182,716)(200,323)(206,333)+/-Clean Surplus Plug
  • 14. (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=Free Cash Flow to Common Equity460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440, 51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,3 93,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155Computation based on SCF:+Cash From Operations35,609,00037,419,00049,129,00027,834,00039,048,8 1639,562,05240,155,89840,833,63041,599,03842,456,46043,41 0,82244,467,68745,633,30446,914,67348,319,61449,769,202- Increase in Cash2,854,000(1,013,000)(65,326,000)64,729,00012,318,989(9, 436)(10,913)(12,451)(14,058)(15,744)(17,521)(19,401)(21,395) (23,517)(25,783)(26,557)+Cash From Investing973,000982,0001,239,0001,140,000830,898825,07482 0,524817,212815,111814,197814,450815,856818,402822,08382 6,894851,701+Increase in Debt311,000304,000(99,000)(53,000)53,33362,82572,65982,89 393,592104,821116,652129,164142,440156,571171,658176,808 -Dividends Paid to Minority Interest0000000000000000- Dividends Paid on Preferred0000000000000000+Increase in Preferred Stock0000000000000000+/-Clean Surplus Plug (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=Free Cash Flow to Common Equity460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440, 51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,3 93,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155Financing Flows:+Dividends Paid0000000000000000-Net Issuance of Common Stock460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,5 1541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,39 3,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155= Free Cash Flow to Common Equity460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440, 51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,3 93,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155Free Cash Flow to all InvestorsNet Operating
  • 15. Income39,633,19837,859,38139,063,72939,224,74639,652,0104 0,174,45140,778,78141,468,33442,246,96843,119,09644,089,73 045,164,52846,349,84747,652,80949,081,36550,553,806- Increase in Net Operating Assets(531,000)(814,000)(54,371,000)54,143,00012,211,427(13 6,141)(157,450)(179,629)(202,812)(227,145)(252,784)(279,896) (308,665)(339,287)(371,981)(383,141)+/-Clean Surplus Plug (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=Free Cash Flow to Investors(184,802)(576,619)(54,170,271)54,127,74651,863,437 40,038,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9 4644,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Comp utation based on SCF:Cash From Operations35,609,00037,419,00049,129,00027,834,00039,048,8 1639,562,05240,155,89840,833,63041,599,03842,456,46043,41 0,82244,467,68745,633,30446,914,67348,319,61449,769,202- Increase in Operating Cash673,000(434,000)(439,000)703,000(8,011)(9,436)(10,913)( 12,451)(14,058)(15,744)(17,521)(19,401)(21,395)(23,517)(25,7 83)(26,557)+Cash from Investing973,000982,0001,239,0001,140,000830,898825,07482 0,524817,212815,111814,197814,450815,856818,402822,08382 6,894851,701+Interest Expense(329,000)(338,000)(345,000)(332,000)(332,012)(336,08 5)(340,837)(346,292)(352,481)(359,439)(367,206)(375,826)(38 5,351)(395,837)(407,348)(419,569)-Tax Shield on Interest(4,802)(4,619)(4,271)(3,254)(3,254)(3,294)(3,341)(3,39 4)(3,455)(3,523)(3,599)(3,684)(3,777)(3,880)(3,993)(4,113)+/- Clean Surplus Plug (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=Free Cash Flow to Investors(2,365,802)2,38110,716,729(9,898,254)39,536,43740,0 38,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9464 4,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Financing Flows:+Dividends on Common Stock0000000000000000+Interest
  • 16. Expense(329,000)(338,000)(345,000)(332,000)(332,012)(336,08 5)(340,837)(346,292)(352,481)(359,439)(367,206)(375,826)(38 5,351)(395,837)(407,348)(419,569)-Tax Shield on Interest(4,802)(4,619)(4,271)(3,254)(3,254)(3,294)(3,341)(3,39 4)(3,455)(3,523)(3,599)(3,684)(3,777)(3,880)(3,993)(4,113)+Di vidends on Preferred Stock0000000000000000+Dividends Paid to Minority Interest0000000000000000-Net Issuance of Common Stock460,00070,000(53,920,000)54,410,00052,252,03640,440,5 1541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443,359,73444,324,40445,39 3,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,38350,771,155-Net Issuance of Debt(311,000)(304,000)99,00053,000(53,333)(62,825)(72,659)( 82,893)(93,592)(104,821)(116,652)(129,164)(142,440)(156,571) (171,658)(176,808)-Net Issuance of Preferred Stock0000000000000000=Free Cash Flow to Investors(184,802)(576,619)(54,170,271)54,127,74651,863,437 40,038,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9 4644,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Tradit ional Computation of FCF:EBIT37,503,00037,209,00037,236,00037,784,00038,195,10 638,698,32839,280,43039,944,62240,694,62241,534,67942,469, 62143,504,89944,646,63645,901,69147,277,72348,696,055- Taxes on EBIT570,198510,381477,729380,746384,893389,964395,83040 2,524410,082418,547427,969438,402449,908462,555476,42249 0,714+Increase in Deferred Taxes(24,000)20,000(14,000)(111,000)2,9123,4303,9674,5265,1 105,7236,3697,0527,7778,5499,3729,654= NOPLAT38,049,19837,739,38137,699,72938,053,74638,582,91 139,091,72339,680,22740,351,67241,109,81341,958,94942,903, 95943,950,35345,104,32046,372,79447,763,51849,196,423+Dep reciation & Amortization(833,000)(889,000)(886,000)(934,000)(927,571)(9 38,952)(952,226)(967,466)(984,758)(1,004,197)(1,025,896)(1,0 49,980)(1,076,591)(1,105,887)(1,138,046)(1,172,187)+Non-
  • 17. Operating Income (Loss)1,560,000140,0001,350,0001,060,0001,072,0101,086,158 1,102,5211,121,1881,142,2651,165,8701,192,1401,221,2271,25 3,3041,288,5631,327,2201,367,037+Other Income (Loss)0000000000000000+Ext. Items & Disc. Ops.0000000000000000=Gross Cash Flow38,776,19836,990,38138,163,72938,179,74638,727,35039, 238,92939,830,52240,505,39441,267,32042,120,62243,070,203 44,121,59945,281,03346,555,47147,952,69249,391,273- Increase in Working Capital(2,880,000)(396,000)10,175,000(9,979,000)(28,191)(33, 208)(38,405)(43,815)(49,470)(55,406)(61,659)(68,273)(75,290) (82,760)(90,734)(93,456)-Capital Expenditures873,0001,009,0001,116,0001,144,000833,413828,0 37823,951821,122819,526819,141819,952821,947825,120829,4 68834,990860,040-Increase in Investments100,000(11,000)64,0000000000000000-Purchases of Intangibles0000000000000000-Increase in Other Assets0(16,000)59,000(4,000)(2,515)(2,963)(3,427)(3,910)(4,41 4)(4,944)(5,502)(6,092)(6,718)(7,384)(8,096)(8,339)+Increase in Other Liabilities52,00048,0002,0001,0006,3797,5148,6919,91511,194 12,53813,95315,44917,03718,72720,53221,148+/-Clean Surplus Plug (Ignore)(39,287,000)(37,622,000)(38,863,000)(39,240,000)0000 00000000=Free Cash Flow to Investors(2,365,802)2,38110,716,729(9,898,254)39,536,43740,0 38,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15642,891,95143,836,9464 4,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709,38450,170,665Analysis of Earnings Quality(Red Shading = Quality Flag)Current Op. Accruals/NOA0.180(0.002)(0.498)0.1420.0010.0020.0030.0030. 0040.0040.0040.0050.0050.0050.0060.006+ Non-Current Op. Accruals/NOA(0.009)(0.008)(0.016)(0.001)0.0040.0110.0120.0 140.0150.0170.0180.0200.0210.0230.0240.024= Operating Accruals/NOA0.0610.0182.529(0.710)(0.560)0.0130.0150.0170. 0190.0210.0230.0240.0260.0280.0300.030Sales
  • 18. Growth0.026(0.013)(0.001)0.0090.0110.0130.0150.0170.0190.0 210.0230.0240.0260.0280.0300.030- NOA Turnover Growth0.0350.0322.531(0.713)(0.565)0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0 000.000(0.000)0.0000.000(0.000)(0.000)- Interaction0.001(0.000)(0.001)(0.007)(0.006)0.0000.0000.0000. 0000.0000.000(0.000)0.0000.000(0.000)(0.000)= Operating Accruals/NOA0.0610.0182.529(0.710)(0.560)0.0130.0150.0170. 0190.0210.0230.0240.0260.0280.0300.030Fiscal Year2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232 024202520262027 Credit AnalysisCredit AnalysisCompany NameKOHL'SActualActualActualActualActualForecastForecast ForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForec astForecastForecastFiscal Year End Date2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201 2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31 2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12 /31Analysis of Leverage- Long-Term Capital StructureDebt to Equity Ratio0.2540.2690.2790.0660.2640.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8 570.8570.8570.8570.8570.8570.857FFO to Total Debt8.9017.9428.0088.1378.2538.2618.2698.2778.2858.2928.30 08.3088.3168.3238.3318.331CFO to Total Debt8.0947.95010.2155.8808.2498.2568.2638.2708.2788.2858.2 928.2998.3068.3138.3208.320Analysis of Leverage- Short-Term LiquidityCurrent Ratio0.7351.8601.9280.4281.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8 691.8691.8691.8691.8691.8691.869Quick Ratio0.4680.2120.3540.1080.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2 700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.270EBIT Interest Coverage(82.700)(113.991)(110.086)(107.930)(113.807)(115.04 1)(115.144)(115.247)(115.350)(115.452)(115.554)(115.656)(11 5.758)(115.860)(115.961)(116.062)(116.062)EBITDA Interest Coverage(80.132)(111.459)(107.456)(105.362)(110.994)(112.24 8)(112.351)(112.453)(112.556)(112.658)(112.760)(112.862)(11 2.964)(113.066)(113.167)(113.268)(113.268)Analysis of Credit
  • 19. RiskNet Income to Total Assets2.4872.8742.6572.7302.9072.9052.9052.9052.9052.9052. 9052.9052.9052.9042.9042.9042.904implied default probability2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0 %2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%Total Liabilities to Total Assets0.6760.5650.5851.3080.5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.5960. 5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.5960.596implied default probability5.5%4.5%4.5%10.0%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4. 5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%4.5%Quick Ratio0.4680.2120.3540.1080.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2 700.2700.2700.2700.2700.2700.270implied default probability6.5%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0 %9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%EBIT to Interest Expense(82.70)(113.99)(110.09)(107.93)(113.81)(115.04)(115.1 4)(115.25)(115.35)(115.45)(115.55)(115.66)(115.76)(115.86)(1 15.96)(116.06)(116.06)implied default probability7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5 %7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%7.5%Inventory Holding Period- 94.19-104.33-108.83-107.14-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71- 111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71-111.71- 111.71implied default probability3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0 %3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Annual Sales Growth0.0%2.6%- 1.3%- 0.1%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0 %3.0%implied default probability4.2%3.2%4.2%4.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2 %3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%3.2%Average Implied Default Probability4.8%4.9%5.0%6.0%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4. 9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%4.9%Fiscal Year2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222 0232024202520262027Lookup Table of default probabilitydecile 1min decile 2min decile 3min decile 4min decile 5min decile 6min decile 7min decile 8min decile 9min decile 10NI to TA thresholds-0.448-0.161- 0.0490.0010.0220.0380.0560.0790.118NI to TA default
  • 20. rates0.0830.080.0720.0550.0450.0300.0250.0200.0200.020TL to TA thresholds0.1750.2830.3850.4760.5580.6330.7090.8161.030TL to TA default rates0.020.0220.0250.0300.0350.0450.0550.0700.0900.100Quic k Ratio thresholds0.3820.5220.8090.9941.2001.4701.8902.5304.550Qui ck Ratio default rates0.090.0650.050.0420.0400.0350.0250.0200.0150.010EBIT to Int thresholds-17.4-3.6- 0.1391.252.2103.3805.2109.16023.800EBIT to Int default rates0.0750.090.0850.0700.0500.0300.0210.0180.0150.010Inv Holding thresholds0.3652.5614.2431.395070.08091.980121.540174.470I nv Holding default rates0.030.0350.0390.0400.0420.0450.0490.0550.0600.070Sales Growth thresholds-0.203- 0.0630.0030.050.0980.1580.2440.3980.797Sales Growth default rates0.0690.0550.0420.0320.0300.0300.0320.0420.0500.065 Forecasting AssumptionsForecasting AssumptionsCompany NameKOHL'STERMINALEstimated Price/Share=$83,704.27YEARActualActualActualActualActualF orecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForeca stForecastForecastForecastForecastFiscal Year End Date2007/12/312008/12/312009/12/312010/12/312011/12/31201 2/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/31 2018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12/312023/12 /31Implied Return on Equity2.3762.2230.8820.8823.4217.2457.2527.2587.2647.2717. 2777.2837.2907.2967.3027.302Income Statement AssumptionsSales Growth2.6%-1.3%- 0.1%0.9%1.1%1.3%1.5%1.7%1.9%2.1%2.3%2.4%2.6%2.8%3.0 %3.0%Cost of Goods Sold/Sales-6.6%-68.0%-68.2%-68.2%- 68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%-68.8%- 68.8%-68.8%-68.8%- 68.8%R&D/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0
  • 21. .0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%SG&A/Sales-22.6%- 22.1%-22.6%-22.9%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%- 23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%-23.2%- 23.2%Dep&Amort/Avge PP&E and Intang.-9.4%-10.1%-10.3%- 11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%- 11.1%-11.1%-11.1%-11.1%Net Interest Expense/Avge Net Debt-7.5%-7.2%-7.2%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%- 7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%-7.0%Non-Operating Income/Sales9.9%8.1%0.7%7.1%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5% 5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%5.5%Effective Tax Rate-2.5%- 1.5%-1.4%-1.2%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%- 1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%-1.0%Minority Interest/After Tax Income0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0 .0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Other Income/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Ext. Items & Disc. Ops./Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0 %0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Pref. Dividends/Avge Pref. Stock0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0 %0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Balance Sheet AssumptionsWorking Capital AssumptionsEnding Operating Cash/Sales6.4%2.8%5.1%7.4%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7 %3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%Ending Receivables/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0 .1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%Ending Inventories/COGS-25.8%-28.6%-29.8%-29.4%-30.6%-30.6%- 30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%-30.6%- 30.6%-30.6%Ending Other Current Assets/Sales2.0%2.3%2.3%2.4%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1 .6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.6%Ending Accounts Payable/COGS-99.2%-10.0%-10.6%-11.6%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%- 9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%-9.5%- 9.5%Ending Taxes Payable/Sales0.7%1.5%0.5%0.4%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7% 0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.7%Ending Other Current Liabs/Sales6.0%4.3%6.0%61.0%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6
  • 22. .3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%6.3%Other Operating Asset AssumptionsEnding Net PP&E/Sales47.4%46.0%46.0%44.8%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43 .3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%43.3%Ending Investments/Sales0.8%0.3%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0 .0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Ending Intangibles/Sales0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0. 0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Ending Other Assets/Sales1.4%1.4%1.5%1.1%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1 .2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.2%Other Operating Liability AssumptionsOther Liabilities/Sales2.4%2.7%2.9%3.0%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2. 9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%2.9%Deferred Taxes/Sales2.1%1.9%2.0%1.9%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1. 3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%1.3%Financing AssumptionsCurrent Debt/Total Assets0.8%0.8%1.0%0.8%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0. 9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%0.9%Long-Term Debt/Total Assets37.0%32.0%32.8%32.2%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%3 3.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%Minority Interest/Total Assets0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0. 0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Preferred Stock/Total Assets0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0. 0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Dividend Payout Ratio0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0 %0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0% Valuation ParametersValuation ParametersEstimated Price/Share=$83,704.27Company Name:KOHL'SRequired Valuation Parameters (to compute value of common equity):Enter Cost of Equity Capital:10.00%Enter Value of Contingent Claims on Common Equity ($000):0Enter Date of Valuation:2012/06/19Enter Dilution Factor for Splits Occurring Since Latest Fiscal Year End:1.00Optional Valuation Parameters (to compute value to all investors):Enter Cost of Net Debt:8.00%Enter Cost of Preferred Stock:9.00%Enter Cost of
  • 23. Minority Interest:10.00%Adjust the Weighted Average Cost of Capital Input9.3720%upsuch that the two equity values below are approximately equal:Equity Value computed directlyEquity Value computed indirectlyapproximate weighted averagefrom flows to equityholders:as the Entity Value less non-equity claims:cost of capital to use as starting point:83704.2791949.0610.03% Residual Income ValuationsResidual Income Valuation($000)Company NameKOHL'SMost Recent Fiscal Year End12/31/11Date of Valuation6/19/12Cost of Common Equity10.00%Teriminal Growth Rate3.00%Fiscal Year of Forecast2012/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/31 2017/12/312018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12 /312023/12/31(53,655,643)Valuation to Common EquityNet Income39,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,9044 3,482,05844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70 650,977,487Common Equity at Beginning of Year17,820,0005,555,2395,628,5555,713,3475,810,0825,919,30 26,041,6266,177,7586,328,4906,494,7156,677,4316,877,754Res idual Income38,205,27639,958,30740,560,10341,246,68642,021,8964 2,890,12843,856,37244,926,26246,106,12747,403,05548,824,96 350,289,712Present Value of Residual Income34,732,06933,023,39430,473,40628,172,04126,092,2912 4,210,35922,505,25420,958,43319,553,49918,275,93017,112,85 216,023,852Present Value Beyond 10 Years268,916,240Present Value of First 10 Years257,996,674Common Equity as of12/31/1117,820,000Forecast Equity Value Before Time Adj.544,732,915Forecasted Value as of Valuation Date598,820,354Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value Attributable to Common Equity598,820,354Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$83,704.27Valuation to All InvestorsCost of Debt8.00%Cost of Preferred Stock9.00%Cost of Minority Interest10.00%After Tax Weighted Average Cost of Capital9.37%Net Interest Expense to Net
  • 24. Debtholders(332,012)(336,085)(340,837)(346,292)(352,481)(35 9,439)(367,206)(375,826)(385,351)(395,837)(407,348)(419,569) Beginning Book Value of Debt4,707,0004,760,3334,823,1584,895,8174,978,7105,072,302 5,177,1235,293,7755,422,9395,565,3795,721,9505,893,608Resi dual Interest Expense(708,572)(716,912)(726,689)(737,957)(750,778)(765,22 3)(781,376)(799,328)(819,186)(841,068)(865,104)(891,057)Pres ent Value of Residual Interest Income(656,085)(614,636)(576,869)(542,420)(510,967)(482,22 0)(455,925)(431,852)(409,797)(389,577)(371,028)(353,851)Val ue of Debt(8,377,562)Dividends to Preferred Stockholders000000000000Beginning Book Value of Preferred Stock000000000000Residual Income to Preferred Stock000000000000Present Value of Preferred Residual Income000000000000Value of Preferred Stock0Minority Interest in Earnings000000000000Beginning Book Value of Minority Interest000000000000Residual Income to Minority Interest000000000000Present Value of MI Residual Income000000000000Value of Minority Interest0Net Operating Income39,652,01040,174,45140,778,78141,468,33442,246,9684 3,119,09644,089,73045,164,52846,349,84747,652,80949,081,36 550,553,806Beginning Net Operating Assets22,527,00010,315,57310,451,71310,609,16410,788,79210 ,991,60411,218,74911,471,53311,751,42912,060,09412,399,381 12,771,363Residual Income to all Investors37,540,77939,207,67639,799,24640,474,04341,235,84 242,088,96343,038,30944,089,41645,248,50346,522,53747,919, 29549,356,874Present Value of Residual Investor Income34,323,93932,776,21430,419,80228,284,72626,347,7852 4,588,45822,988,57921,532,03720,204,53418,993,36217,887,21 516,845,108Entity Value590,010,995Less Value of Debt8,377,562Less Value of Preferred Stock0Less Value of Minority Interest0Forecast Equity Value Before Time Adj.598,388,557Forecasted Value as of Valuation Date657,803,555Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value
  • 25. Attributable to Common Equity657,803,555Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$91,949.06 DCF ValuationsDCF Valuations($000)Company NameKOHL'SMost Recent Fiscal Year End12/31/11Date of Valuation6/19/12Cost of Common Equity10.00%Terminal Growth Rate3.00%Fiscal Year of Forecast2012/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/31 2017/12/312018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12 /312023/12/31-53655642.8830Valuation to Common EquityFree Cash Flow to Common Equity52,252,03640,440,51541,038,16741,721,28542,493,68443 ,359,73444,324,40445,393,30646,572,75147,869,81049,292,383 50,771,155Present Value of FCF47,501,85133,421,91330,832,58228,496,19926,385,23424,4 75,43922,745,42821,176,31219,751,39318,455,88417,276,6801 6,177,255Present Value Beyond 10 Years271,490,679Present Value of First 10 Years273,242,235Forecast Equity Value Before Time Adj.544,732,915Forecasted Value as of Valuation Date598,820,354Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value Attributable to Common Equity598,820,354Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$83,704.27Valuation to All InvestorsCost of Net Debt8.00%Cost of Preferred Stock9.00%Cost of Minority Interest10.00%After Tax Weighted Average Cost of Capital9.37%Free Cash Flow to Debt(385,345)(398,910)(413,495)(429,185)(446,073)(464,260)( 483,858)(504,990)(527,791)(552,409)(579,007)(596,377)Presen t Value of FCF to Debt(356,801)(342,001)(328,246)(315,464)(303,590)(292,562)( 282,327)(272,831)(264,027)(255,872)(248,326)(236,829)Value of Debt(8,377,562)Free Cash Flow to Preferred Stock000000000000Present Value of FCF to Preferred Stock000000000000Value of Preferred Stock0Free Cash Flow to Minority Interest000000000000Present Value of FCF to Minority Interest000000000000Value of Minority Interest0Free
  • 26. Cash Flows to Investors51,863,43740,038,31040,621,33141,288,70642,044,15 642,891,95143,836,94644,884,63146,041,18347,313,52148,709, 38450,170,665Present Value of FCF to Investors47,419,30033,470,59531,048,14728,854,04226,864,25 925,057,56623,415,16521,920,39820,558,48419,316,29118,182, 13817,122,848Entity Value590,010,995Less Value of Net Debt8,377,562Less Value of Preferred Stock0Less Value of Minority Interest0Forecast Equity Value Before Time Adj.598,388,557Forecasted Value as of Valuation Date657,803,555Less Value of Contingent Equity Claims0Value Attributable to Common Equity657,803,555Common Shares Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date7,154Forecast Price/Share$91,949.06 EPS ForecasterEPS Forecaster($000, except per share amounts)Company NameKOHL'SCommon Shares Outstanding at BS Date7,154Equivalent Shares at Valuation Date7,154Forecasted Price at Valuation Date$83,704.27ForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForeca stForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastForecastFiscal Year of Forecast2012/12/312013/12/312014/12/312015/12/312016/12/31 2017/12/312018/12/312019/12/312020/12/312021/12/312022/12 /312023/12/31Net Income39,987,27640,513,83141,122,95841,818,02042,602,9044 3,482,05844,460,53545,544,03846,738,97648,052,52649,492,70 650,977,487Common Equity Issued (Repurchased)(52,252,036)(40,440,515)(41,038,167)(41,721,28 5)(42,493,684)(43,359,734)(44,324,404)(45,393,306)(46,572,75 1)(47,869,810)(49,292,383)(50,771,155)Forecasted Price at Year End$88,145.25$96,959.77$106,655.75$117,321.32$129,053.46$ 141,958.80$156,154.68$171,770.15$188,947.17$207,841.88$22 8,626.07$251,488.68New Shares Issued (Repurchased)(593)(417)(385)(356)(329)(305)(284)(264)(246)( 230)(216)(202)Shares Outstanding at End of
  • 27. Year6,5616,1445,7595,4045,0744,7694,4854,2213,9743,7443,52 83,327Forecast EPS$5,831.09$6,377.46$6,909.41$7,492.20$8,131.73$8,834.69 $9,608.73$10,462.59$11,406.26$12,451.23$13,610.74$14,872.8 4Consensus Analyst Forecast of EPSForecast Five Year Growth Rate in EPS9%Consensus Analyst Forecast of Growth RateTo obtain analyst forecasts, click here Although not a necessary input for eVal, we recommend that you find the analyst forecasts for your company and store them in the yellow-shaded cells for comparison purposes. Model SummaryModel SummaryHistorical Data For:KOHL'SMost Recent Fiscal Year End:2011/12/31Average ROE (last five years)159.08%Sales Growth (last five years)0.53%Forecast Data:Forecast Horizon10 yearsThis Year's ROE342.13%Terminal Year's ROE730.24%This Year's Sales Growth1.13%Terminal Year's Sales Growth3.00%This Year's Forecast EPS$5,831.09Forecast 5 Year EPS Growth8.66%Valuation Data:Cost of Equity Capital10.00%Valuation Date2012/06/19Estimated Price/Share$83,704.27Estimated Price/Earnings Ratio14.35Estimated Market/Book Ratio33.60