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Climate Change - John Alarcon
1.
X. International Istanbul Insurance
Conference Climate Change October 4th 2018 Willis Re © 2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved.
2.
AGENDA 2© 2016 Willis
Towers Watson. All rights reserved. • Generalities • Future effects • (Re)insurance and Climate Change • Catastrophe Modelling of Climate Change
3.
Very brief definitions 3©
2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The correct definition of three key terms: Weather, Climate Change and Global Warming. These are often used interchangeably though it is important to understand the main differences. An important element for this differentiation is time-frames and spatial coverage Time frame: Minutes to Days Spatial Coverage: Local It is basically related to Atmospheric conditions such as rain, clouds, floods, etc. “If you do not like the weather in (New) England, just wait a few minutes” - Mark Twain Definitions from NASA “Global Climate Change” Weather Climate Change Global Warming Time frame: Long term (seasons/years/decades) Spatial Coverage: Regional / Global It is related to the average of temperature, humidity and rainfall Time frame: Since early 20th Century (particularly the 70’s) Spatial Coverage: Global It is related to the increase in temperature across the Earth due to fossil fuel emissions. 0.8 oC Temperature Relative to the mid 20th Century baseline (1951- 1980)
4.
Is Climate Change
Normal? 4© 2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Yes, it is Normal! Paleoclimatology studies show that the planet has changed its temperatures constantly along geological time. Evidence suggests that in the past the Earth’s temperature has been much higher and lower than currently. The average global temperature today is 15 OC. Ice Ages Lasted from about 2.4 million years ago until 11,500 years ago. The climate changed from very cold to very warm periods. The last Glacial period occurred between 115,000 to 11,700 years ago and currently we are in an Interglacial period Average 10 oC lower Temperature
5.
Are there more
recent examples? 5© 2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Yes, it is Normal! Paleoclimatology studies show that the planet has changed its temperatures constantly along geological time. Evidence suggests that in the past the Earth’s temperature has been much higher and lower than currently. The average global temperature today is 15 OC. Medieval Warm Period in Europe (circa 950/1000 to 1300) • Mainly in Mid-, North- and West- Europe • Mean temperature increase estimated by 0.5 to 1 °C • At the same time the Maya culture disappeared due to bad weather/climate conditions • Warm period led to population increase in Europe/new settlements. • Greenland is populated • Wine agriculture in Oslo-Fjords • Fig and olive trees in South Germany Important difference to climate change nowadays: it was not global Increase of 0.5 -1.0 oC Temperature
6.
The Little Ice
Age 6© 2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Little Ice Age (circa 1315 to 1850) • Mean temperature lower by 0.8 °C, in some regions by 2-3°C than the previous warm period • Seemed to be a more generalised phenomenon, however not exactly at the same time (North America later than Europe). • Mainly in Northern hemisphere, southern hemisphere no clear evidence • Main drivers: sun spot cycle • Sun spot cycle • Volcanic eruptions (1815/1816) • First paintings of snow and ice landscapes Once more, not a Global effect 0.8 oC lower than previous warm period Temperature Frederk M. Kruseman – 1850 (Low Countries) Pietre Bruegel – 1565 (Belgium) Jan Abrahamsz – 1658 (Netherlands) Giovanni P. Panini – 1730 (Rome) Francisco Goya – 1787 (Spain) George Morland – 1792 England
7.
Is Climate Change
Normal? 7© 2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Yes, it is Normal! But what is not Normal is Global Warming! When climate change has increased temperatures significantly in the past two million years, it has taken the planet about 5,000 years to warm 5 oC degrees. From Mann et al., 2008 Climate Change models estimate that the Earth will be 2 to 6 oC degrees warmer within the next 50 to 100 years. This rate of change is extremely unusual and has been strongly linked to human intervention, mainly due to due to fossil fuel emissions.
8.
What Models Tell
About the Future 8© 2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC 2014 The IPCC 2014 report provides a scientific review of the state of knowledge about Climate Change. The clear consensus is that Global warming exists and is driven by human activity RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathways – These are Greenhouse gas trajectories adopted, and describe four possible climate futures pending on how much green house gases are emitted in the coming years. Each pathway is named making reference to the Radiative forcing or Climate forcing values in the year 2100 (i.e. the difference between the sunlight energy absorbed by the Earth and the energy radiated back to space), relative to pre-industrial values. For instance, RCP 4.5 means that the Radiative force of the earth is +4.5 Watts/m2 in 2100 compared to the 1750s. The four scenarios are RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5
9.
What Models Tell
About the Future (2) 9© 2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC 2014 The changes in the average global temperature in the 2081-2100 time interval are likely to be between 0.3 oC and 0.7 oC higher than in the 1986-2005 time period. With respect to the 1850 to 1900 period, the surface temperature in the 2081- 2100 period is likely to be between 1.5 oC and 2.0 oC higher. Changes in the precipitation (water cycle) will not be uniform. Extreme rainfall events are likely to become more intense in the mid latitudes
10.
Climate Change and
(Re)Insurance 10© 2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The key question in this forum is: Given the complexities of the processes involved in Climate Change and Global Warming , can the Insurance Industry have any impact (for good) on it? Car Insurance Drivers Age Accident history Car usage Parking area Differential Pricing Geospatial advances, and topographic data have provided the option to be more accurate for Price discrimination matters in Property insurance This then would incentivise the costumers decisions on where to buy a property With more detailed data and information, Insurers could offered reduced premiums for costumers that invest on risk mitigation
11.
Climate Change and
(Re)Insurance - 2 11© 2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The key question in this forum is: Given the complexities of the processes involved in Climate Change and Global Warming , can the Insurance Industry have any impact (for good) on it? ILS (Cat Bonds) And Governments A Global Reinsurer proposed a Cat Bond where rebates or premiums are partially returned to Municipalities/Governments that invest in Risk mitigation projects (e.g. Riverine Flood Defences implementation, Sewer system upgrades, Sea Wall defences, etc) With more detailed data and information, Insurers could offered reduced premiums for costumers that invest on risk mitigation Wind Turbine Insurance protecting energy production Not only governments incentivise cleaner energies for cars via tax relief, but Insurance companies also do so via differential premiums
12.
Is Climate Change
Modelled in Catastrophe Models? 12© 2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. Model 1 Catalogue bases on years with Warm Sea Surface temperature Yes and No North Atlantic Basin Model 2 Projection of hurricane activity: 5yr view (2014- 2018) Europe Windstorm Model 1 Alternative view - Catalogue developed using recording from a different time window Custom Studies Association of British Insurers asked the Met Office and AIR to assess the financial impacts of climate change in UK. 1-in-100-year event insured flood losses could rise by 30% to £5.4 billion
13.
X. International Istanbul Insurance
Conference Climate Change October 4th 2018 Willis Re © 2016 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved.
14.
Willis Re disclaimers 14
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