Whether or not global warming is real


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Summary: It is not disputed that mean temperature of Earth has increased by 0.8° C since the early 20th century. Various factors affecting Earth’s surface temperature have been examined and it is found that no mathematical correlation exists between those factors and Global Warming. It is suggested that Earth dynamically keeps its surface temperature.

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Whether or not global warming is real

  1. 1. Whether or not Global Warming is Real – A View PointSummary: It is not disputed that mean temperature of Earth has increased by 0.8°C since the early 20th century. Various factors affecting Earth’s surfacetemperature have been examined and it is found that no mathematical correlationexists between those factors and Global Warming. It is suggested that Earthdynamically keeps its surface temperature.The purpose of this article is not to dispute generally accepted facts or to denyprojected effects of Global Warming. The purpose of this article is to examinewhether or not evidence that has accumulated is being correctly interpreted.Therefore cumulative evidence is generally presumed to be correct. I haveprincipally relied upon Wikipedia to build up this article.According to Wikipedia:-“Global warming is the rise in the average temperature of Earths atmosphereand oceans since the late 19th century and its projected continuation. Since theearly 20th century, Earths mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.8°C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980. Warming ofthe climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain that itis primarily caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced byhuman activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Thesefindings are recognized by the national science academies of all majorindustrialized nations.Climate model projections were summarized in the 2007 Fourth AssessmentReport (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Theyindicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely torise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C (2 to 5.2 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.4to 6.4 °C (4.3 to 11.5 °F) for their highest. The ranges of these estimates arise fromthe use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations.”Wikipedia further states:-“Global warming controversy
  2. 2. The global warming controversy refers to a variety of disputes, significantly morepronounced in the popular media than in the scientific literature, regarding thenature, causes, and consequences of global warming. The disputed issues includethe causes of increased global average air temperature, especially since the mid-20th century, whether this warming trend is unprecedented or within normalclimatic variations, whether humankind has contributed significantly to it, andwhether the increase is wholly or partially an artifact of poor measurements.Additional disputes concern estimates of climate sensitivity, predictions ofadditional warming, and what the consequences of global warming will be.In the scientific literature, there is a strong consensus that global surfacetemperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is causedmainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. No scientific body ofnational or international standing disagrees with this view, though a feworganizations hold non-committal position.From 1990–1997 in the United States, conservative think tanks mobilized toundermine the legitimacy of global warming as a social problem. They challengedthe scientific evidence.”The difficulty with Global Warming is that cause-effect relationship betweenincreased temperature and the alleged causes has never been scientificallyestablished. Only certain associated changes have been alleged to be the cause.We are not certain if these associated changes are indeed the culprit. Moreovereven these projections are based on empirically generated climate models. This ispresumably because we do not yet understand how Earth keeps itsclimate/temperature. So literature has plenty of mutually contradictoryobservations, claims and counterclaims. Plenty of positive feedback and negativefeedback cycles are known but all put together do not explain as to how Earthkeeps its climate/temperature within a range. Attempts to link Earth’stemperature with solar constant and its variations just don’t meet the eye. Solarconstant is highest during winters and lowest during summers. Variations in solarconstant do not exceed 0.1%. Wikipedia states about Solar Constant as under:-“Solar output is nearly, but not quite, constant. Variations in total solar irradiancewere too small to detect with technology available before the satellite era. Totalsolar output is now measured to vary (over the last three 11-year sunspot cycles)by approximately 0.1%; see solar variation for details.The solar constant includes all types of solar radiation, not just the visible light. Itis measured by satellite to be roughly 1.361 kilowatts per square meter (kW/m²)
  3. 3. at solar minimum and approximately 0.1% greater (roughly 1.362 kW/m²) at solarmaximum. The actual direct solar irradiance at the top of the atmospherefluctuates by about 6.9% during a year (from 1.412 kW/m² in early January to1.321 kW/m² in early July) due to the Earths varying distance from the Sun, andtypically by much less than 0.1% from day to day. Thus, for the whole Earth (whichhas a cross section of 127,400,000 km²), the power is 1.740×1017 W, plus or minus3.5%. The solar constant does not remain constant over long periods of time(see Solar variation), but over a year varies much less than the variation of directsolar irradiance at the top of the atmosphere arising from the ellipticity of theEarths orbit. The approximate average value cited,1.361 kW/m², is equivalent to1.952 calories per minute per square centimeter, or 1.952 langleys (Ly)—or, in SIunits— about 81.672 kJ/m² per minute.The Earth receives a total amount of radiation determined by its cross section(π·RE²), but as it rotates this energy is distributed across the entire surfacearea (4·π·RE²). Hence the average incoming solar radiation, taking into accountthe angle at which the rays strike and that at any one moment half the planetdoes not receive any solar radiation, is one-fourth the solar constant(approximately 340 W/m²). At any given moment, the amount of solar radiationreceived at a location on the Earths surface depends on the state of theatmosphere, the locations latitude, and the time of day.”The amount of solar energy Earth receives for sun is sufficient to increase surfacetemperature beyond 100° C in less than one hour. Moreover amount of energycan’t be correlated with observed weather conditions, being the highest inwinters and lowest in summers. Even the extent of variation in solar constantcan’t be correlated with rise of Earth’s temperature by 0.8° C during the lastcentury. Moreover it is self-evident that Earth was unable to dissipate energy itreceives from Sun; it would have been hot enough that no known life formsexcept (probably) some kind of Extremophiles could have survived. Evendepletion of Ozone layer does not correlate with Global Warming. In 2008, total worldwide energy consumption was474 exajoules (474×1018 J=132,000 TWh). This is equivalent to an average poweruse of 15 terawatts (1.504×1013 W). This is 0.009% of the amount of energyEarth receives from Sun during any year. Therefore increased energyconsumption due to increased human activity can’t account for increase inmean temperature of Earth from 13.9° C to 14.6° C (approximate increase of5.4%) during past 100 years.
  4. 4. From the above discussion, it is evident that Earth rigorously keeps itstemperature and Earth’s temperature bears no direct correlation to amount ofenergy it receives from sun or released by burning of fuels to meet demandscreated by increased human activity. Further no cause-effect relationship withaccumulation of so called green house gases and Earth’s temperature has beenestablished. Increased concentration (16% to 167% since 1750) of naturallyoccurring greenhouse gases does not linearly correlate with extent of reportedmean temperature change. Same is the case with increased positive radiativeforcing. Increased positive radiative forcing for different naturally occurringgreenhouse gases has increased from 0.18 W/square meter to 1.79 W/squaremeter but bears no correlation with reported temperature increase.Therefore all that can be said at the moment is that Earth’s surface temperatureis the result of dynamic equilibrium which is attained and maintained by a varietyof mechanisms having positive and negative feedback loops. So the reportedincrease in mean temperature of Earth may not be due to alleged accumulation ofgreen house gases or increased human activity but may be the result of shift indynamic equilibrium. How this dynamic equilibrium is determined, attained andmaintained is the key issue to be resolved if we want to understand the reasonunderlying reported increase in mean temperature of Earth. Empirically workedout climate models are really not of much help because they indicate onlyassociation of facts and not the rationale behind those facts. Scientific resolutionof problem of Global warming is not possible in the absence of properunderstanding of the phenomenon. Last but not the least, nature is self-perpetuating and this invariably is the result of dynamic conservation of status-quo.Author: Dr Mahesh C. Jain is a practicing medical doctor and has written thebook “Encounter of Science with Philosophy – A synthetic view”. The book beginswith first chapter devoted to scientifically valid concept of God and then explainscosmic phenomena right from origin of nature and universe up to origin of lifeand evolution of man. The book includes several chapters devoted to auxiliaryconcepts and social sciences as corollaries to the concept of God. This is the onlybook which deals with origin of nature and universe from null or Zero or nothing.http://www.sciencengod.comhttp://curatio.in