Travelling to work in a post-carbon world
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This is my presentation for the 2013 E-Futures Autumn conference
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Travelling to work in a post-carbon world
- 1. Getting to work in a post carbon world Commuting after peak oil (or effective climate change legislation) E-Futures Annual Conference Robin Lovelace, Sheffield, September 2013
- 2. Evil birds and magic stones • Peak oil, obesity, climate change, recession • Energy: 'master resource', affects all E.g. see Hopkins (2013), Berners-Lee and Clarke (2013) and your local MacDonalds
- 3. Energy use transport: fundamentals • It's "nature's money" • Various ways of measuring it • Direct (fuel) and indirect: fuel, vehicle and road construction (Lovelace, 2011) • Average per unit distance - refine after 1 estimate
- 4. Where are we now? Here
- 5. Here!
- 6. Where we're at: regional variability
- 11. Going Dutch • Scenario of high cycling uptake • Aggregate and individual-level implementations • Realistic based on Dutch data • 'What if' not 'it will' approach source: London Cycling Campaign
- 12. Going Dutch: aggregate-level results (Yorkshire and the Humber)
- 13. National-level comparisons Average energy costs per one way trip to work in English regions (2001) and Dutch provinces (2010)
- 14. Going Finnish
- 15. Going Finnish: assumptions Based on work by Finlanders Helminen, Ristimäki, M. (2007)
- 17. 'Eco-localisation' • It's the localisation of economic activity (North 2010; Greer 2009) • Extent of process depends on your perspective • Tried to model it... • But some things are best not quantified (and so says Vaclav Smil)
- 19. Going home • Some interesting and policy-relevant results – Bicycles and 'active travel' only part of solution – Focus attention on largest energy users first • Reproducible methods • Final draft of thesis • E-Futures has been amazing
- 20. Going Forward • New job in Leeds - part of national project: Geospatial Data Analysis and Simulation (Geotalisman) - developing methods • But want to continue energy research • Collaborations with Dutch colleagues • Modelling policies in Bogota, Colombia with Ana Moreno • Algorithm for optimal bike path location? • Engage policy makers + more.
- 21. Go references + questions Berners-Lee, M., & Clark, D. (2013). The Burning Question: We can’t burn half the world's oil, coal and gas. So how do we quit? Profile Books Greer, J. M. (2009). The Ecotechnic Future: Envisioning a Post-Peak World. Aztext Press. Helminen, V., & Ristimäki, M. (2007). Relationships between commuting distance, frequency and telework in Finland. Journal of Transport Geography Hopkins, R. (2013). The Power of Just Doing Stuff: How Local Action Can Change the World (p. 160). Green Books Lovelace, R., Ballas, D., & Watson, M. (2013). A spatial microsimulation approach for the analysis of commuter patterns: from individual to regional levels. Journal of Transport Geography Lovelace, R., Beck, S. B. M. B. M., Watson, M., & Wild, A. (2011). Assessing the energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK. Energy Policy North, P. (2010). Eco-localisation as a progressive response to peak oil and climate change - A sympathetic critique. Geoforum Rietveld, P. (2004). Determinants of bicycle use: do municipal policies matter? Transportation Research Part New email address: R . Lovelace @ Leeds . ac . uk Contact me if you fancy a ride to Leeds, Sat. 28th!
- 22. Going Dutch: individual-level results (South Yorkshire)
- 23. Going apocalyptic Credit: Ian Philips, ITS