Once upon a time...in Egypt
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To arrive at a methodology that will help identify the factors that led to the uprising in Egypt; so as to predict and preempt such events in future by taking proactive action
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Once upon a time...in Egypt
- 1. Once upon a time… in Egypt Rajna Rajan
- 2. Arab Spring Why now ?
- 3. Objective A methodology to identify factors that could trigger such revolutions… ... to predict & pre-empt proactively
- 4. Once upon a time…in Egypt Years Muhammad Hosni El Sayed Mubarak - President since 1981
- 5. The T Challenges win 1 A retrospective view of Egypt to arrive at a predictive model 2 Capturing the citizens‟ views in authoritarian regimes 1 7 Most Free Least Free Civil Liberties Political Rights Source : Freedom in the World Survey ‟11
- 6. A holistic approach Cultural Society Political Economic
- 7. Measuring each dimension Socio-cultural World Values Survey 2000 & 2008 Trend Analysis on key macro-economic variables Socio-economic (2001 to 2010) Social Media Netnography (Qualitative) Socio-political Universe Identification – Text Mining – Content Analysis
- 8. Hypothesis Uncertainty Socio Cultural Dimension Power Distance Avoidance Collectivism Shift in Value System?
- 9. Over time, economic issues were #1 priority Poverty biggest problem; Strong support for democracy Socio Economic Dimension Fight rising Stable Economic prices economy growth 2000 18% 47% 54% 2008 70% 70% 74% Source :WVS figures „00 & „08
- 10. Rising trends; Poor economic performance 2010 Socio Economic Dimension Population below poverty line 22% Unemployment rate 9% Inflation 11% Corruption 98/178 Human Development Index 101/169 Source : World Bank, IMF, Transparency International; Figures benchmarked to 2001
- 11. Socio Political Dimension Main themes of online conversations… ‟04-‟05 ‟06-‟08 ‟09-‟10
- 12. Socio Political Dimension Themes that gained traction in 2009 & 2010 Police brutality Corruption Poverty Human rights violations appeared in tandem with police brutality.
- 13. Common emergent issues that triggered the revolution Socio-cultural Socio-economic 1. Poverty 2. Unemployment 3. Corruption 4. Rising prices 5. Freedom / Democracy Socio-political Shift in value system not a necessary precursor
- 14. Framework Conventional Research Approach + Neo methodologies like Social Media Netnography 360o approach :Monitoring online behavior macro economic parameters along , with cultural shifts if any
- 15. Applicability Ideal scenario: Barometer for authoritative regimes; resulting in proactive handling of issues in the better interests of its citizens Aid human rights watchers, NGOs, NPOs to plan effective & efficient campaigns
- 16. “and we all lived happily ever after…”