Real Enterprise Architecture Roadmaps don't have roads. Use scenarios to manage uncertainty & the lifecycle of your roadmap

1. Change the Metaphor
! Not an automobile roadmap
! No clear route
! No easy navigation
! No “gas stations”
! Think aircraft or sailing
! Heading, bearing
! Navigation error
! Bring your own supplies
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2. Is your crystal ball perfect?
Dave Hornford, Partner
Conexiam
Traverse your roadmap - review, revise and wind-up
Using scenario technique to manage forks in the roadmap

3. Conexiam
EA Capability
Enterprise Architecture
Change Leadership
Today
• Enterprise Architecture
key deliverable: the roadmap
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4. Try standing still
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5. Roadmap
! Sequential dependency aware set of work packages that
realize the Target
! Includes options and value statements for each Work Package
! Value stated in terms of business capability, market reach and
limitations
! Provide awareness of existing roadblocks, why they are
roadblocks and implications of addressing them head on or
perpetually detouring
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April 2012

6. Example Roadmap
Year x Year x+1
(Program)
Year X =2
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Name of Project Business
Spend: $ ; Savings: $
Name of Project
Spend $ ; Savings: $
Name of Project
Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0
Systems
Name of Project
Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0
Name of Project
Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0
Name of Project Name of Project Infrastructure
Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0 Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0
Name of Project
Business
Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0
Information
Systems
Information
Technology
Milestone/Decision Point Dependency üComplete
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7. Example Roadmap
(Program/ Project)
Supported
by text
explanation
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8. Scenario
! Use the dimensions of uncertainty to construct internally consistent
pictures of possible future worlds
! Tools
! Shell Explorer’s Guide
A scenario is a story that describes a possible future. It identifies some
significant events, the main actors and their motivations, and it conveys how the
world functions.
Decision makers can use scenarios to think about the uncertain aspects of the
future that most worry them—or to discover the aspects about which they
should be concerned—and to explore the ways in which these might unfold
! Other references
! Scenario Planning (Lingren Bandhold)
! Scenarios: The Art of the Strategic Conversation (Heijden)
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9. Scenarios
Options, Choices Drivers
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10. The future
! Did the future unfold according to your plan?
! The future is in motion
Clouds, credit, succession, project success, and everything else
! Did your environment’s change align? Do you need a new road?
! Is there a fork in the road? An end of the road?
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April 2012

11. Overcome murky
crystal ball
! Use scenarios to defer unnecessary choice
! Dimensions of uncertainty
! Highlight the uncertain
! Uncover aspects to be concerned about
! Real roadmap's require lifecycle management
! Review, revision wind-up
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April 2012

12. Scenarios
Dimensions of Uncertainty
- your fears
- things you should fear
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13. Architecture
Scenarios
! Architecture
! Scenario
! description of a system
! keep the future fluid
! description of the system’s ! consider a set of scenarios
components
! description of the components
relationship
! Now change
! How did you manage change
! a component
! with certainty?
! a foundation
! with confidence?
! a principle
! with precision?
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14. Manage uncertainty
Things you fear Things you should fear
! Explore uncertain aspects of ! Discover aspects of the future
the future you know you you should worry about
worry about
! Look at the system
! Look at the system
! How does your scenario ! Are there problems lurking?
avoid manage your fears
! What is not in your control
! Did you push the limits? Or that can derail you?
run a ‘safe path’?
! Is your ‘safe path’ the ‘safest’?
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15. Forks
! Many roadmaps have decisions that limit future choice
! When do you need to make the decision?
! Today, Tomorrow, Next Quarter
! Scenarios supporting a Roadmap facilitate structured deferral
! Do you know the significant event that triggers a decision
! Use identified uncertainty
! to focus on gathering information
! to focus on identifying the evolving context
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16. The Traps
Artificial Certainty
Straight-line
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17. Artificial certainty
! Our greatest trap
! Forces the system to revolve around arbitrary fixed points
! Do we do it
! Project Capital spend processes require it
! We hate ambiguity
! Need to demonstrate progress
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18. Straightline
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19. Conclusion
Real roadmaps have no roads
Use scenario to explore
future uncertainty
Use scenario to explore
impact of inaction, mis-action
action
Roadmaps must be revisited
Manage the level of certainty
Further out most impacted are less certain
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April 2012

20. Questions
! Dave Hornford ! EA Capability
Partner ! Enterprise Architecture
dave.hornford@conexiam.com
! Change Leadership
+1 403.818.4303
www.conexiam.com
Conexiam - Open Group Conference
April 2012