2. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Presentation Flow
1. Preamble 3
2. Introduction 4
3. How Markets Value Minerals 5
4. Beneficiation - a game changer ?
a. Chrome – a UG2 Concentrate Story 6
b. Manganese – desperate need for technology 7
c. Iron Ore 8
d. Coal 9
5. Conclusions 10
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3. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Preamble
A famous bet :
Julian L. Simon, the economist, and Paul Ehrlich, the
environmentalist entered in a widely followed scientific wager in
1980, betting on a mutually agreed-upon measure of resource
scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990.
Simon and Ehrlich chose five commodity metals. Copper,
chromium, nickel, tin, & tungsten were chosen and Simon bet that
their prices would decrease, while Ehrlich bet they would increase.
Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population grew by more than
800 million, the largest increase in one decade in all of history.
Ehrlich lost the bet, as all five commodities that were bet on
declined in price from 1980 through 1990, the wager period.
3
Simon Ehrilch
4. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Introduction
Between 1980 & 1990 the price of three of the five metals went down
in nominal terms and all five of the metals fell in price in inflation-
adjusted terms.
Main reasons -
a) better methods of beneficiation & extraction increased the
resource base.
b) more effective usage
Case in point – Copper :
Better hydrometallurgical concentration, solvent extraction
techniques – threshold limit reduces to 0.6%
Electronic components use less copper than electrical equivalents.
Improvement in Mineral Beneficiation has widespread impact
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5. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
How Markets Value Minerals
Demand & Supply should determine the price of minerals,
however, other factors seem more important :
Monopoly/Oligopoly :
○ Historic examples : Tin (Malaysia and Thailand),
Copper(Chile), Silver(Argentina)
○ In the cases stated above, no new major ore deposits
discovered, however, due to improvement in beneficiation
and extraction technologies, lower grade mineral deposits
have become economically viable.
Rare Earths & China, today…. Challenge to us mineral
engineers to make low grade RE deposits in India viable?
5
Better Concentration Techniques Changes the Value
Markets gives to Minerals, removes Oligopolies
6. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Beneficiation – a game changer ?
Chrome Ore :
UG2 – by-product of processing UG2 seam ores to
extract platinum with very low Cr:Fe ratio of 1.3:1
Not used by anyone except China, which has developed
processes to make Chrome Alloys from UG2
Concentrate.
Result :
China has become the leading producer (& consumer) of
ferrochrome in the world drop in Cr prices that is here
to stay.
6
Beneficiation has changed the game in Chrome Alloys
7. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Manganese Ore - desperate need for technology
India has large reserves of Manganese minerals:
○ Low grade : Mn content < 20% ~600-700 mn MT
○ High & Med grade : ~350-430 mn MT
but most are of low grade
Additionally, ores in Orissa region, including in Tata Steel’s
Joda Mn Mines, being ferruginous, have low Mn/Fe ratio
Many beneficiation processes have been discussed or
tested, challenge to us Mineral engineers is to urgently :
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Beneficiation – a game changer ?
Commercially develop Beneficiation Processes
for low grade and low Mn/Fe Manganese Ores
8. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Iron Ore
All steel makers the world over, Tata Steel included,
have concentrated on developing beneficiation
technologies for :
Beneficiating low grade Fe ores – ores upto 40% Fe
being used in China compared to +63% a few years
ago
Reduction of alumina content of iron ore and use of
slimes
Beneficiation – a game changer ?
8
As a result of success of beneficiation, iron ore fines are
now valued higher than lumps – a game changer
9. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Coal
Coal beneficiation by washing almost universally adopted
for upgrading high ash coals
Improved beneficiation techniques coupled with advances
in coke making and increasing use of non coking coals
and alternate reducants has helped the world feed its
insatiable demand for reductants.
Beneficiation – a game changer ?
9
Success of coal beneficiation has helped mitigate the
shortage of good quality coal - a game changer
10. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Conclusions
Rising population and aspirations have led to increased
demand for ores from a limited mineral/coal base.
Successful beneficiation techniques have been game
changers across geographies and minerals.
As a result, despite limited resources, by and large,
production has kept pace with human aspirations.
We are but half way – limitless aspirations and limited
resources provide continuing challenges to us mineral
engineers in the field of beneficiation……
10
11. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAMPrabhashGokarn,HeadProjects,FAM
looking forward to you all to….
…throw more light on the subject
Thank You
prabhash@tatasteel.com
?
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13. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Back Up – some details…
1. More about the Simon – Ehrlich Bet 14
2. Chrome – a UG2 Concentrate Story 15
3. Manganese – desperate need for technology 22
4. Iron Ore & Coal 26
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15. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population grew by more than
800 million, the largest increase in one decade in all of history.
But by September 1990, the price of each of Ehrlich's selected metals
had fallen.
Chromium, which had sold for $3.90 a pound in 1980, was down to
$3.70 in 1990. Tin, which was $8.72 a pound in 1980, was down to
$3.88 a decade later.
Julian Simon won because the price of three of the five metals went
down in nominal terms and all five of the metals fell in price in
inflation-adjusted terms, with both tin and tungsten falling by more
than half.
Ehrlich insisted that commodities would become more expensive: they
were running out in the face of the population explosion.
More about the Simon – Ehrlich Bet
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16. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Simon asserted : more people meant more brains meant better methods of
extraction and lower usage per unit of production. Thus prices should fall. Sure,
thereareperiodswherethe alarmistswouldwin,butthe generalmove overtime
favoursthecornucopians.
Simon said : technology would advance and new stocks of materials would be
exploitable.Thiswouldhappenfasterthandemandwouldleadingtofallsinprices.
In Copper, SX-EW (solvent extraction & electro-winning) opened up the entire
planettoanotherwaveofcopperexploration.Before1980,wemadecopperfrom
copper sulfides.If we found amountain of copper oxide thenthat’swhatitstayed
at, copper oxide. Copper oxide wasn’t copper ore, it was simply dirt, for we didn’t
knowhowtoextractthecopperfromit.
More about the Simon – Ehrlich Bet
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17. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
SX-EW changed that: it’s a process to extract copper from copper oxide. Thus all
those mountains of copper oxide out there (and there are many, quite literally,
mountains of copper oxide) became copper ore instead of dirt. Thus the price
declined.
We do discover new mineral resources, we do develop new beneficiation &
extractiontechnologies,whichmakelargeramountsofmineralresourcesavailable
tous.
There are other events that happen, certainly, which push prices up for periods of
time.
Butthelongtermtrendformetalsatleastisdownwards.
More about the Simon – Ehrlich Bet
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18. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Counter argument of the Simon Ehrlich Bet
Prices of all five metals (chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and
tungsten) had gone up between 1950 and 1975.
But the prices of three of the five went down in the 1980s, in
part because a recession in the first half of that decade
slowed the growth of demand for industrial metals worldwide.
Ironically, a prominent reason for the slower industrial growth
was the doubling of world oil prices in 1979.
Indeed, the price of oil probably was a factor in the prices of
metals in both years, being unprecedentedly high in 1980 and
unprecedentedly low in 1990
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20. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Chrome – a UG2 Concentrate Story
UG2 is attractive to Chinese processors as its can only be
used in small open furnaces (furnaces in SA & Khaz are
closed furnaces).
Also, due to higher dust generation on using fine UG2,
producers find it difficult to comply with pollution norms
using UG2 – not a problem for Chinese manufacturers (for
obvious reasons).
This has caused a dramatic shift in ferrochrome production
moving away from South Africa to China.
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21. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
UG-2 Chromite Production Trends
Steep increase in UG2 production in recent years has
already made it the largest source of Chrome.
Source : ICDA Statistical Report : Chromium in 2013, Jan 2014
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22. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
….allowing China to become the top
ferrochrome producer….
China’sincreasingCrOre&reducingFeCr
imports. Source ICDA, Oman Dec 2013
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23. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
… and the top chrome ore importer….
Source ICDA, Oman Dec 2013
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24. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Causing a Decline in Ferrochrome
Prices adjusted for inflation..
Source Cramer, Basson, Nelson, Impact of Pt production from UG2 ore on chrome,
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26. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Manganese Ore Beneficiation -
Technologies considered, inconclusively
Beneficiation of Low Grade Mn Ores :
RADOS – Radiometric Mn Ore Sorting
Magnetic Separation of ore & gangue
Wet gravity beneficiation
Improving the Mn/Fe ratio
Magnetic Separation of Fe post reduction roasting
Through Blast Furnace reduction : MnO slag
Sponge Iron route - partial reduction of Fe followed by
Magnetic Separation
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