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Prabhash Gokarn
Head Projects
Opening Presentation
Workshop on Mineral Beneficiation,
Sukinda 31-Mar-2014
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Presentation Flow
1. Preamble 3
2. Introduction 4
3. How Markets Value Minerals 5
4. Beneficiation - a game changer ?
a. Chrome – a UG2 Concentrate Story 6
b. Manganese – desperate need for technology 7
c. Iron Ore 8
d. Coal 9
5. Conclusions 10
2
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Preamble
A famous bet :
Julian L. Simon, the economist, and Paul Ehrlich, the
environmentalist entered in a widely followed scientific wager in
1980, betting on a mutually agreed-upon measure of resource
scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990.
Simon and Ehrlich chose five commodity metals. Copper,
chromium, nickel, tin, & tungsten were chosen and Simon bet that
their prices would decrease, while Ehrlich bet they would increase.
Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population grew by more than
800 million, the largest increase in one decade in all of history.
Ehrlich lost the bet, as all five commodities that were bet on
declined in price from 1980 through 1990, the wager period.
3
Simon Ehrilch
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Introduction
 Between 1980 & 1990 the price of three of the five metals went down
in nominal terms and all five of the metals fell in price in inflation-
adjusted terms.
 Main reasons -
a) better methods of beneficiation & extraction increased the
resource base.
b) more effective usage
 Case in point – Copper :
 Better hydrometallurgical concentration, solvent extraction
techniques – threshold limit reduces to 0.6%
 Electronic components use less copper than electrical equivalents.
Improvement in Mineral Beneficiation has widespread impact
4
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
How Markets Value Minerals
 Demand & Supply should determine the price of minerals,
however, other factors seem more important :
 Monopoly/Oligopoly :
○ Historic examples : Tin (Malaysia and Thailand),
Copper(Chile), Silver(Argentina)
○ In the cases stated above, no new major ore deposits
discovered, however, due to improvement in beneficiation
and extraction technologies, lower grade mineral deposits
have become economically viable.
 Rare Earths & China, today…. Challenge to us mineral
engineers to make low grade RE deposits in India viable?
5
Better Concentration Techniques Changes the Value
Markets gives to Minerals, removes Oligopolies
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Beneficiation – a game changer ?
Chrome Ore :
 UG2 – by-product of processing UG2 seam ores to
extract platinum with very low Cr:Fe ratio of 1.3:1
 Not used by anyone except China, which has developed
processes to make Chrome Alloys from UG2
Concentrate.
 Result :
 China has become the leading producer (& consumer) of
ferrochrome in the world  drop in Cr prices that is here
to stay.
6
Beneficiation has changed the game in Chrome Alloys
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Manganese Ore - desperate need for technology
 India has large reserves of Manganese minerals:
○ Low grade : Mn content < 20% ~600-700 mn MT
○ High & Med grade : ~350-430 mn MT
but most are of low grade
 Additionally, ores in Orissa region, including in Tata Steel’s
Joda Mn Mines, being ferruginous, have low Mn/Fe ratio
 Many beneficiation processes have been discussed or
tested, challenge to us Mineral engineers is to urgently :
7
Beneficiation – a game changer ?
Commercially develop Beneficiation Processes
for low grade and low Mn/Fe Manganese Ores
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Iron Ore
 All steel makers the world over, Tata Steel included,
have concentrated on developing beneficiation
technologies for :
 Beneficiating low grade Fe ores – ores upto 40% Fe
being used in China compared to +63% a few years
ago
 Reduction of alumina content of iron ore and use of
slimes
Beneficiation – a game changer ?
8
As a result of success of beneficiation, iron ore fines are
now valued higher than lumps – a game changer
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Coal
Coal beneficiation by washing almost universally adopted
for upgrading high ash coals
Improved beneficiation techniques coupled with advances
in coke making and increasing use of non coking coals
and alternate reducants has helped the world feed its
insatiable demand for reductants.
Beneficiation – a game changer ?
9
Success of coal beneficiation has helped mitigate the
shortage of good quality coal - a game changer
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Conclusions
 Rising population and aspirations have led to increased
demand for ores from a limited mineral/coal base.
 Successful beneficiation techniques have been game
changers across geographies and minerals.
 As a result, despite limited resources, by and large,
production has kept pace with human aspirations.
 We are but half way – limitless aspirations and limited
resources provide continuing challenges to us mineral
engineers in the field of beneficiation……
10
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAMPrabhashGokarn,HeadProjects,FAM
looking forward to you all to….
…throw more light on the subject
Thank You
prabhash@tatasteel.com
?
11
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Back Up
Some Details
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Back Up – some details…
1. More about the Simon – Ehrlich Bet 14
2. Chrome – a UG2 Concentrate Story 15
3. Manganese – desperate need for technology 22
4. Iron Ore & Coal 26
13
14
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population grew by more than
800 million, the largest increase in one decade in all of history.
But by September 1990, the price of each of Ehrlich's selected metals
had fallen.
Chromium, which had sold for $3.90 a pound in 1980, was down to
$3.70 in 1990. Tin, which was $8.72 a pound in 1980, was down to
$3.88 a decade later.
Julian Simon won because the price of three of the five metals went
down in nominal terms and all five of the metals fell in price in
inflation-adjusted terms, with both tin and tungsten falling by more
than half.
Ehrlich insisted that commodities would become more expensive: they
were running out in the face of the population explosion.
More about the Simon – Ehrlich Bet
15
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Simon asserted : more people meant more brains meant better methods of
extraction and lower usage per unit of production. Thus prices should fall. Sure,
thereareperiodswherethe alarmistswouldwin,butthe generalmove overtime
favoursthecornucopians.
Simon said : technology would advance and new stocks of materials would be
exploitable.Thiswouldhappenfasterthandemandwouldleadingtofallsinprices.
In Copper, SX-EW (solvent extraction & electro-winning) opened up the entire
planettoanotherwaveofcopperexploration.Before1980,wemadecopperfrom
copper sulfides.If we found amountain of copper oxide thenthat’swhatitstayed
at, copper oxide. Copper oxide wasn’t copper ore, it was simply dirt, for we didn’t
knowhowtoextractthecopperfromit.
More about the Simon – Ehrlich Bet
16
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
SX-EW changed that: it’s a process to extract copper from copper oxide. Thus all
those mountains of copper oxide out there (and there are many, quite literally,
mountains of copper oxide) became copper ore instead of dirt. Thus the price
declined.
We do discover new mineral resources, we do develop new beneficiation &
extractiontechnologies,whichmakelargeramountsofmineralresourcesavailable
tous.
There are other events that happen, certainly, which push prices up for periods of
time.
Butthelongtermtrendformetalsatleastisdownwards.
More about the Simon – Ehrlich Bet
17
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Counter argument of the Simon Ehrlich Bet
 Prices of all five metals (chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and
tungsten) had gone up between 1950 and 1975.
 But the prices of three of the five went down in the 1980s, in
part because a recession in the first half of that decade
slowed the growth of demand for industrial metals worldwide.
 Ironically, a prominent reason for the slower industrial growth
was the doubling of world oil prices in 1979.
 Indeed, the price of oil probably was a factor in the prices of
metals in both years, being unprecedentedly high in 1980 and
unprecedentedly low in 1990
18
19
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Chrome – a UG2 Concentrate Story
UG2 is attractive to Chinese processors as its can only be
used in small open furnaces (furnaces in SA & Khaz are
closed furnaces).
Also, due to higher dust generation on using fine UG2,
producers find it difficult to comply with pollution norms
using UG2 – not a problem for Chinese manufacturers (for
obvious reasons).
This has caused a dramatic shift in ferrochrome production
moving away from South Africa to China.
20
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
UG-2 Chromite Production Trends
Steep increase in UG2 production in recent years has
already made it the largest source of Chrome.
Source : ICDA Statistical Report : Chromium in 2013, Jan 2014
21
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
….allowing China to become the top
ferrochrome producer….
China’sincreasingCrOre&reducingFeCr
imports. Source ICDA, Oman Dec 2013
22
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
… and the top chrome ore importer….
Source ICDA, Oman Dec 2013
23
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Causing a Decline in Ferrochrome
Prices adjusted for inflation..
Source Cramer, Basson, Nelson, Impact of Pt production from UG2 ore on chrome,
24
25
Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM
Manganese Ore Beneficiation -
Technologies considered, inconclusively
Beneficiation of Low Grade Mn Ores :
 RADOS – Radiometric Mn Ore Sorting
 Magnetic Separation of ore & gangue
 Wet gravity beneficiation
Improving the Mn/Fe ratio
 Magnetic Separation of Fe post reduction roasting
 Through Blast Furnace reduction : MnO slag
 Sponge Iron route - partial reduction of Fe followed by
Magnetic Separation
26
27
28
29

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The Economics of Mineral Benefication

  • 1. Prabhash Gokarn Head Projects Opening Presentation Workshop on Mineral Beneficiation, Sukinda 31-Mar-2014
  • 2. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Presentation Flow 1. Preamble 3 2. Introduction 4 3. How Markets Value Minerals 5 4. Beneficiation - a game changer ? a. Chrome – a UG2 Concentrate Story 6 b. Manganese – desperate need for technology 7 c. Iron Ore 8 d. Coal 9 5. Conclusions 10 2
  • 3. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Preamble A famous bet : Julian L. Simon, the economist, and Paul Ehrlich, the environmentalist entered in a widely followed scientific wager in 1980, betting on a mutually agreed-upon measure of resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990. Simon and Ehrlich chose five commodity metals. Copper, chromium, nickel, tin, & tungsten were chosen and Simon bet that their prices would decrease, while Ehrlich bet they would increase. Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population grew by more than 800 million, the largest increase in one decade in all of history. Ehrlich lost the bet, as all five commodities that were bet on declined in price from 1980 through 1990, the wager period. 3 Simon Ehrilch
  • 4. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Introduction  Between 1980 & 1990 the price of three of the five metals went down in nominal terms and all five of the metals fell in price in inflation- adjusted terms.  Main reasons - a) better methods of beneficiation & extraction increased the resource base. b) more effective usage  Case in point – Copper :  Better hydrometallurgical concentration, solvent extraction techniques – threshold limit reduces to 0.6%  Electronic components use less copper than electrical equivalents. Improvement in Mineral Beneficiation has widespread impact 4
  • 5. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM How Markets Value Minerals  Demand & Supply should determine the price of minerals, however, other factors seem more important :  Monopoly/Oligopoly : ○ Historic examples : Tin (Malaysia and Thailand), Copper(Chile), Silver(Argentina) ○ In the cases stated above, no new major ore deposits discovered, however, due to improvement in beneficiation and extraction technologies, lower grade mineral deposits have become economically viable.  Rare Earths & China, today…. Challenge to us mineral engineers to make low grade RE deposits in India viable? 5 Better Concentration Techniques Changes the Value Markets gives to Minerals, removes Oligopolies
  • 6. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Beneficiation – a game changer ? Chrome Ore :  UG2 – by-product of processing UG2 seam ores to extract platinum with very low Cr:Fe ratio of 1.3:1  Not used by anyone except China, which has developed processes to make Chrome Alloys from UG2 Concentrate.  Result :  China has become the leading producer (& consumer) of ferrochrome in the world  drop in Cr prices that is here to stay. 6 Beneficiation has changed the game in Chrome Alloys
  • 7. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Manganese Ore - desperate need for technology  India has large reserves of Manganese minerals: ○ Low grade : Mn content < 20% ~600-700 mn MT ○ High & Med grade : ~350-430 mn MT but most are of low grade  Additionally, ores in Orissa region, including in Tata Steel’s Joda Mn Mines, being ferruginous, have low Mn/Fe ratio  Many beneficiation processes have been discussed or tested, challenge to us Mineral engineers is to urgently : 7 Beneficiation – a game changer ? Commercially develop Beneficiation Processes for low grade and low Mn/Fe Manganese Ores
  • 8. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Iron Ore  All steel makers the world over, Tata Steel included, have concentrated on developing beneficiation technologies for :  Beneficiating low grade Fe ores – ores upto 40% Fe being used in China compared to +63% a few years ago  Reduction of alumina content of iron ore and use of slimes Beneficiation – a game changer ? 8 As a result of success of beneficiation, iron ore fines are now valued higher than lumps – a game changer
  • 9. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Coal Coal beneficiation by washing almost universally adopted for upgrading high ash coals Improved beneficiation techniques coupled with advances in coke making and increasing use of non coking coals and alternate reducants has helped the world feed its insatiable demand for reductants. Beneficiation – a game changer ? 9 Success of coal beneficiation has helped mitigate the shortage of good quality coal - a game changer
  • 10. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Conclusions  Rising population and aspirations have led to increased demand for ores from a limited mineral/coal base.  Successful beneficiation techniques have been game changers across geographies and minerals.  As a result, despite limited resources, by and large, production has kept pace with human aspirations.  We are but half way – limitless aspirations and limited resources provide continuing challenges to us mineral engineers in the field of beneficiation…… 10
  • 11. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAMPrabhashGokarn,HeadProjects,FAM looking forward to you all to…. …throw more light on the subject Thank You prabhash@tatasteel.com ? 11
  • 12. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Back Up Some Details
  • 13. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Back Up – some details… 1. More about the Simon – Ehrlich Bet 14 2. Chrome – a UG2 Concentrate Story 15 3. Manganese – desperate need for technology 22 4. Iron Ore & Coal 26 13
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  • 15. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Between 1980 and 1990, the world's population grew by more than 800 million, the largest increase in one decade in all of history. But by September 1990, the price of each of Ehrlich's selected metals had fallen. Chromium, which had sold for $3.90 a pound in 1980, was down to $3.70 in 1990. Tin, which was $8.72 a pound in 1980, was down to $3.88 a decade later. Julian Simon won because the price of three of the five metals went down in nominal terms and all five of the metals fell in price in inflation-adjusted terms, with both tin and tungsten falling by more than half. Ehrlich insisted that commodities would become more expensive: they were running out in the face of the population explosion. More about the Simon – Ehrlich Bet 15
  • 16. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Simon asserted : more people meant more brains meant better methods of extraction and lower usage per unit of production. Thus prices should fall. Sure, thereareperiodswherethe alarmistswouldwin,butthe generalmove overtime favoursthecornucopians. Simon said : technology would advance and new stocks of materials would be exploitable.Thiswouldhappenfasterthandemandwouldleadingtofallsinprices. In Copper, SX-EW (solvent extraction & electro-winning) opened up the entire planettoanotherwaveofcopperexploration.Before1980,wemadecopperfrom copper sulfides.If we found amountain of copper oxide thenthat’swhatitstayed at, copper oxide. Copper oxide wasn’t copper ore, it was simply dirt, for we didn’t knowhowtoextractthecopperfromit. More about the Simon – Ehrlich Bet 16
  • 17. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM SX-EW changed that: it’s a process to extract copper from copper oxide. Thus all those mountains of copper oxide out there (and there are many, quite literally, mountains of copper oxide) became copper ore instead of dirt. Thus the price declined. We do discover new mineral resources, we do develop new beneficiation & extractiontechnologies,whichmakelargeramountsofmineralresourcesavailable tous. There are other events that happen, certainly, which push prices up for periods of time. Butthelongtermtrendformetalsatleastisdownwards. More about the Simon – Ehrlich Bet 17
  • 18. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Counter argument of the Simon Ehrlich Bet  Prices of all five metals (chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten) had gone up between 1950 and 1975.  But the prices of three of the five went down in the 1980s, in part because a recession in the first half of that decade slowed the growth of demand for industrial metals worldwide.  Ironically, a prominent reason for the slower industrial growth was the doubling of world oil prices in 1979.  Indeed, the price of oil probably was a factor in the prices of metals in both years, being unprecedentedly high in 1980 and unprecedentedly low in 1990 18
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  • 20. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Chrome – a UG2 Concentrate Story UG2 is attractive to Chinese processors as its can only be used in small open furnaces (furnaces in SA & Khaz are closed furnaces). Also, due to higher dust generation on using fine UG2, producers find it difficult to comply with pollution norms using UG2 – not a problem for Chinese manufacturers (for obvious reasons). This has caused a dramatic shift in ferrochrome production moving away from South Africa to China. 20
  • 21. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM UG-2 Chromite Production Trends Steep increase in UG2 production in recent years has already made it the largest source of Chrome. Source : ICDA Statistical Report : Chromium in 2013, Jan 2014 21
  • 22. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM ….allowing China to become the top ferrochrome producer…. China’sincreasingCrOre&reducingFeCr imports. Source ICDA, Oman Dec 2013 22
  • 23. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM … and the top chrome ore importer…. Source ICDA, Oman Dec 2013 23
  • 24. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Causing a Decline in Ferrochrome Prices adjusted for inflation.. Source Cramer, Basson, Nelson, Impact of Pt production from UG2 ore on chrome, 24
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  • 26. Prabhash Gokarn, Head Projects, FAM Manganese Ore Beneficiation - Technologies considered, inconclusively Beneficiation of Low Grade Mn Ores :  RADOS – Radiometric Mn Ore Sorting  Magnetic Separation of ore & gangue  Wet gravity beneficiation Improving the Mn/Fe ratio  Magnetic Separation of Fe post reduction roasting  Through Blast Furnace reduction : MnO slag  Sponge Iron route - partial reduction of Fe followed by Magnetic Separation 26
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