Here is a look at the issues facing the middle east.

1. Middle East –
What’s Next?
Paul Young CPA, CGA
January 1, 2019

2. Paul Young CPA, CGA
• Bio
• SME – Geopolitical Events
• SME – Business Process Re-Engineering
• SME – Business and Risk Analytics

3. Agenda
• Syria GDP
• Syria Civil War / Natural Gas Pipeline
• Democracy/Syria
• Iran and Syria
• UN Aid to Syria
• Donald Trump / Syria
• Rebuilding
• Assad / Rule
• Iran threat
• Qatar
• Yemen
• Hezbolah

4. Overview
• Geopolitical issues are becoming very important for business as they
look to make investments around the world
• It is very important to understand the issues facing foreign countries as
part of doing business in foreign countries.
• Syrian will have a population of about 12M. The refugees that left are
not coming back which suits Assad
• Syria has no interest in dealing with the Kurds in the North as such has
left them on their own.

5. Syria GDP – Current State
• Syria’s “gross domestic product (GDP) stood at $60.2 billion in 2010. As
of 2016, it was at $27.2 billion at 2010 prices, representing a contraction
of 50%,” said Dahi, an associate professor at Hampshire College in the
United States.
• “If a realistic growth rate is taken into account, total economic losses
shoot up to a staggering 430% or more of GDP at 2010 prices,” Dahi
added. “This would put Syria among the outliers in terms of post- World
War II civil conflicts in terms of GDP losses.”
Arab Weekly – March 26, 2017

6. What is fueling the Civil War in Syria
Turkey knowing Syria was a critical
piece in its energy strategy, Turkey
attempted to persuade Syrian
President Bashar Assad to reform this
Iranian pipeline and to work with the
proposed Qatar-Turkey pipeline,
which would ultimately satisfy Turkey
and the Gulf Arab nations’ quest for
dominance over gas supplies. But after
Assad refused Turkey’s proposal,
Turkey and its allies became the major
architects of Syria’s “civil war.”

7. Did Democracy have a role in Syria Civil War
• The trouble began in 2011 in the Syrian city of Deraa.
• It began because local people decided to protest after 15 schoolchildren were
arrested - and reportedly tortured - for writing anti-government graffiti on a
wall.
• When the war first began, the protesters just wanted democracy and greater
freedom.
• But once government forces opened fire on peaceful demonstrations, people
demanded that President Bashar al-Assad resign. However, he refused to do
this which made the protesters extremely angry.
• As the violence got worse, he offered to change some things about the way the
country was run, but the protesters didn't believe him.
BBC – April 5, 2017

8. Iran and Syria
• Iran is in the process of putting together agreements, including economic
agreements, with Syria to strengthen its hold, its ports and naval bases there,”
he said.
• He added: “There is a need for Russia and other powers to work to avoid the
threat that Iran ends up with military, air and naval bases in Syria.
Times of Israel – March 30, 2017

9. UN Aid/Syria
• Forty-one donors today pledged a combined $6 billion for critical
humanitarian programms in 2017 and another $3.7 billion for 2018 for
the people of Syria reeling under a devastating conflict since 2011 at a
United Nations-supported conference in the Belgian capital, Brussels.
Canada has provided close to $1B aid -
UN News Service – April 5, 2017
Debate Post – April 5, 2017

10. Donald Trump / Syria
• CNN – April 6, 2017
Russia has challenged President Donald Trump to set out his strategy on Syria after he
declared that an apparent chemical weapons attack had transformed his views on the
regime of President Bashar al-Assad.
Trump, who has previously argued against removing Assad from power, said
Wednesday's attack on a rebel-held town in Syria's Idlib province was a "heinous" act
that "crossed a lot of lines for me."

11. White Helmets
• https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/syria-russia-white-helmet-
1.4749380?cmp=rss
Does Trudeau and his government truly know this group?
• http://tass.com/politics/1010293 or https://www.snopes.com/fact-
check/is-this-proof-white-helmets-staged-chemical-attack/ or
http://www.cheriberens.net/white-helmetsnbspan-islamist-
propagandist-group-and-funded-arm-of-us-government.html or
https://globalnews.ca/news/4142949/russia-u-k-staged-syria-
chemical-attack/
•

12. Syria Rebuilding
Source - https://gulfnews.com/news/mena/syria/syria-s-assad-says-rebuilding-is-top-priority-1.2249018
I n 2017, the World Bank estimated the cost of war-related losses in Syria at $226 billion (191
billion euros), the equivalent of four times the country's pre-war gross domestic product.
Top officials in the West publicly insist their countries will provide no reconstruction funds without a
credible political transition away from Assad.
And the Syrian head of state, who has estimated rebuilding would cost $200 billion at the very
least, has insisted he would refuse Western contributions.
In an interview in June with Russia's NTV network, Assad said the West "won't be part of
reconstruction in Syria, because very simply we won't allow them to be part of it, whether they
come with money or not".
On Monday, Assad said his government would also focus on amending legislation, the return of
refugees who fled because of "terrorism" and reactivating the stalled political process.
More than six million Syrians have been internally displaced by the conflict, and another five
million have fled to neighbouring countries.
Where is the exit strategy?

13. Syria / Assad Rule
Source - https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/.premium-assad-s-
syria-2-0-a-shrunken-state-but-a-better-neighbor-for-israel-1.6241969
Refugee:
• The six million-plus refugees living outside Syria now, mostly in adjacent countries aren’t going
home anytime soon. The regime has made clear they are not welcome. Many know that even if they
could return, their homes and villages have been occupied by others.
Infrastructure:
• Another approximately 4.5 million Syrians live in the Kurdish-ruled north, which the Assad regime isn’t
anxious to take back. Another 400,000 were killed in the fighting.
• Assad’s Syria 2.0 will have a halved population of just 11.5 million. The 60% drop in GDP suddenly
doesn’t look so disastrous in a per capita basis.
• There’s still a lot of rebuilding to do, but suddenly the task looks are a lot more manageable. The
homeless can be given homes that were abandoned. There's no need to build more because there is no
one to live in them. The same applies to factories, highways and schools. In the 40% of Syria the regime
controls, water and power are already mostly available. There’s no need for big investment there either
• Eastern Aleppo remains mostly in ruins a year have being re-conquered by the regime from rebels. But
its population is down to 2 million from 3.2 million before the war and it’s likely to stay that way for the
foreseeable future. Except for some cosmetic restoration of historic sites and government buildings,
there's little need to rebuild.
Fact:
Current Syrian will become more sectarian - Oddly, the losers of the
way may well end up being the countries straining to host the Syrian
refugees who will never go back. The Syrian Sunnis themselves are
losers, too. But for Assad and Israel, it looks like a win-win.

14. Syria – Whats Next?
• Parts of Syria is controlled by different religious sects -
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/28/syrian-kurdish-
militia-manbij-turkey
• USA withdrawal from Syria – In doubt?
https://taskandpurpose.com/lindsey-graham-trump-syria-withdrawal
• Reconstruction of Syria - https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east/will-
iran-use-gulf-money-to-rebuild-syria-22974

17. Iran Threat
Source - https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/iran-file/iran-file-a-u-s-
withdrawal-from-syria-empowers-the-irgc-and-regimes-economic-influence-in-
the-region

18. Turkey and Middle East
• Turkey has warned that taking out Assad
will do nothing unless is a global strategy
to deal with vacuum when it comes to
ethnic issues in Syria
• Syria civil war was about natural gas -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi
ness/syrias-civil-
war/2018/12/20/72731c20-0480-
11e9-958c-
0a601226ff6b_story.html?noredirect=on
&utm_term=.0b7c9253a34b

19. United Nations and the Middle East
• UN needs to work with Middle East coalition partners as part of
stabilizing the middle east.
• Saudi Arabia and Israel have warned the UN about the Iran threat to de-
stabilized the middle east.
• Both China and Russia have exerted influence with both Iran and Syria –
Source - https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/russia--
china-abstain-in-un-vote-on-syria-cross-border-aid-11030760

20. Qatar and Muslim Brotherhood
Source - https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/11/27/581312/Saudi-Arabia-Egypt-to-continue-diplomatic-trade-
boycott-against-Qatar

21. Yemen
• https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/yemen-aid-lost-to-corruption-as-us-steps-up-
humanitarian-pressure-1.683110
• UN Food Agency - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-01/yemen-
rebels-deny-un-accusations-of-stealing-aid-
deliveries?utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-
business&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic
• How about you go back to the root cause?
• Govt Corruption - https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/yemen-aid-lost-to-corruption-
as-us-steps-up-humanitarian-pressure-1.683110
• Aid has been promised - https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/saudi-arabia-uae-
jointly-pledge-500-million-in-yemen-aid-1.6673956
• Civil War needs to end - https://thehill.com/opinion/international/417497-a-us-iran-
strategy-begins-in-yemen

22. Hezbolah
• It is very dangerous to side with groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Both
those groups have been known to be back by Iran -
http://isis.trendolizer.com/2018/05/canadian-pm-sides-with-hamas-
pa-hezbollah-iran-over-the-us-and-israel.html
•
• Trudeau is putting Canada in a very dangerous position when it comes
to war on terror.
• https://www.yorkregion.com/news-story/7051964-richmond-hill-
liberal-mp-majid-jowhari-sparks-controversy-over-iranian-activities/

23. Summary
• Too many countries got involved with either ousting Assad or supporting Assad
• Syria is made up with many religious sects. The Shia religion being the strongest
• Syria has port access to Mediterranean Sea
• Oil and Natural Gas are key exports as such Syria provides good access to world market
• Kurds want their own land in areas like Turkey and Syria
• Eliminating a leader can make things worst.
• Middle East has many issues that UN has done little to resolved
• Countries continue to make the same mistake when dealing with civil wars. You cannot
just take out leadership and/or impose sanctions as they do little to fixed the systemic
cultural issues that reside in many middle eastern countries.