Transit system across Canada have seen a decline with ridership since COVID19.

1. PRESENTER
PAUL YOUNG CPA CGA
JUNE 30, 2020
How is Canada Transit doing in
Canada?

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3.  Large Urban Transit / Monthly Trends
 Large Urban Transit / Annual Trends
 Income tax Impact
 Blogs
 Blogs - Transit
 Infrastructure bank
 VIA Rail
 Capital Investment
 Mississauga Transit
 Liberals and Rural Areas
Agenda

4.  Transits are important to assist with moving people around from one location to another location
 There are issues facing transit including the subsidies that government provide to support transit
 Building more transit needs to include a proper risk management. There are routes being added
that lose moneys which means more government moneys is required to support those routes
 Transit needs to look at synergies including consolidation of transit systems within a geographic
area
 Govt need to bring back the non-refundable tax credit for Transit. This tax credit help the middle
class
 Liberal government killed the transit tax credit and then created a carbon tax rebate. The problem
is the next impact of the carbon tax will mean on average families will pay $1,000 more in carbon
taxes (ex of the rebate)
Summary

5.  Stats Canada - https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/191001/dq191001c-
eng.htm
Large Urban Transit Stats

6.  Stats Canada
Large Urban Transit – Ridership (Express in millions)
• Transit Ridership was growing each year
since 2015
• All groups of people are benefiting from
the transit cut

7.  Stats Canada
Household Spending

8. Tax Impact You would think the transit tax credit
encourage people to use transit which it
did when you look at ridership
Trudeau said people were no using the
tax credit and/or ridership was not
going up.
http://cutaactu.ca/en/news-
media/latest-news/transit-ridership-
growing-canada “2017 saw a 1.5%
increase in Canadian transit trips over
the previous year, according to new
data released by CUTA. ”
• Cost of Pollution -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyou
ngcga/2019-election-taxing-
pollution-canada-august-2019 (see
slide 45)
Source - https://globalnews.ca/news/5368001/canada-average-carbon-tax-
rebates/beta/?utm_expid=.kz0UD5JkQOCo6yMqxGqECg.1&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F
• Middle class benefited from the transit tax credit
• Families on average are paying about $1,000
more in terms of carbon taxes

9. Source -
https://www.ttc.ca/PDF/About_the_TTC/Annual_Reports/TTC_2015AnnualReport_AODA_FIN
AL-s.pdf
TTC / Subsidies

10. Source - http://www.metrolinx.com/en/docs/pdf/board_agenda/20170914/20170914_BoardMtg_Annual_Report_EN.pdf
Go Transit

11. Liberal Government / Quotes
Finance Minister Bill Morneau says it didn’t boost ridership enough and cost
Ottawa too much. Toronto Star – March 24, 2017
• Ridership is up 59 million since 2011
• Average monthly transit passes cost about $450/month
• 16% of household budgets are related to transportation
• Eliminating the non-refundable tax credit is just another tax
increase for the middle class

12. Source - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-auditor-general-findings-1.4933334
Auditor-General Ontario / Metrolinx

13.  https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/federalbudget/2017/03/22/transit-users-lose-tax-break-on-monthly-passes-in-federal-budget.html
Comment/Transit Tax Credit
Colle said the agency doesn’t have statistics on how many people were making use of the rebate,
so it’s not clear what effect it will have on transit usage. But because adult Metropass holders
account for almost half of all trips on the TTC, it’s something Colle said he’ll be watching closely.
“It’s something we definitely need to understand. We don’t want to have people not buying
Metropasses . . . that’s our main revenue source,” he said.
“If this was in fact supporting ridership growth and transit use, then we of course would want it
to stay.”
This year, Metropasses cost $146.25, which works out to a discount of $21.94 for one pass, or
$263.25 for a year’s worth.
Toronto Star – March 22, 2017

14.  http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2017/03/26/public-transit-tax-credit-never-did-much-good
Transit Tax Credit
"As a strategy for reducing car traffic, changing public behavior to promote increased mode-share
for public transit and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, we find that the policy is
expensive and considerably less cost-effective than potential alternatives," it found. To get people
to drive less, we should charge road tolls, that study says, because there's proof those work.
A different study used ridership figures and monthly pass sales to conclude the effect on transit
ridership was nil. It also found people making $90,000 a year or more got a bigger share of the tax
benefits than people making $25,000 to $30,000. To get the maximum benefit, you have to take
transit every day, buy a $100 pass to do it and be in the top tax bracket.
Comment
• Many buses and trains ran on diesel which means emissions would not like come down
• The tax credit was not entirely design to help the environment, but also to put money back into people’s pocket
• Large urban continue to expand transit systems as part moving people around their cities
• More and more people are forced to commute longer distance due to both cost and shortage of adequate housing
• Road tolls are not the answer

15.  http://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/caisse-de-depot-hoping-
bombardier-metrolinx-can-settle-differences-186322/
 This is the same Trust Company that is investing in Montreal Transit
http://business.financialpost.com/news/transportation/caisse-de-depot-to-invest-3-
billion-in-new-montreal-public-transit-rail-network

Pension Funds/Transit

16.  https://www.680news.com/2019/04/17/toronto-council-ontario-transit-plan/?fbclid=IwAR0W267Sb4eueJ-
s_V4oEGBk4e1r9qka219k2rn036rJk2j-y9LvpBrtNLQ
 Mike Layton is a good example as he spends more time on climate change instead of looking at proper transit and urban
planning. I am not surprise as people elected NDP to council! https://www.slideshare.net/.../monthly-transit-analysis... Justin
Trudeau - How about you start showing leadership on transit!
 Many Transit systems still have diesel buses - https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/03/21/news/many-canadian-transit-
agencies-are-missing-made-canada-electric-buses-says-new
 Edmonton has made a huge investment in electrical buses - https://globalnews.ca/news/5136476/edmonton-electric-bus-
fleet/
 Ontario is committed to Transit - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-toronto-subway-upload-gta-transit-
plan-1.5090394. The problem is the Liberals are fighting the Ford and Ontario Government -
https://www.thespec.com/news-story/9288787-doug-ford-is-slamming-the-brakes-on-transit-projects-justin-trudeau-tells-
kitchener/
 http://cutaactu.ca/en/blog-posts/public-transit-one-safest-ways-travel - Transit is important, but it relies heavily on subsidies
by all levels of government

Blog - Transit

17.  http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/king-street-pilot-statistics-1.4484645?cmp=rss
 Yet the liberals removed the transit tax credit -
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/03/24/killing-the-transit-tax-credit-catches-riders-off-
guard-and-could-hurt-the-ttc.html
 Who voted liberal?
Blog – Transit Tax Credit

18. Liberal Party of Canada Infrastructure Banking
Backing
Source - http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/infrastructure-bank-1.4512240
• Ports
• Price for exports and
imports would reflect
cost recovery of capital
• Bridges and Roads
• Tolls
• Transit Systems received
subsidies from Government
• Supported by property
taxes
Middle class is under attack -
https://globalnews.ca/news/3769136/taxes-middle-class-
liberals/
Trudeau’s GDP and Job growth are also not accurate in terms of
health of the economy -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/real-truth-canada-
and-united-states-gdp-january-2018
Canada is less competitive today than it was when Harper left
office -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/competitiveness-
canada-vs-other-countries-january-2018
Harper had the best middle class in the world, right?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOl37VcG89c (Trudeau
has failed the middle class) -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/middle-class-
analysis-and-commentary-canada-january-2018

19.  Public Transit requires subsidies as part of supporting the operations-
https://www.ttc.ca/PDF/About_the_TTC/Annual_Reports/TTC_2016AnnualReport_final_AODA.pdf
 Pensions funds will not sponsor projects unless there is a return -
http://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/infrastructure-bank-1.4512240 Government will have to back those
returns
 Riders were unaware that tax credits were eliminated -
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/03/24/killing-the-transit-tax-credit-catches-riders-off-guard-
and-could-hurt-the-ttc.html. The funny thing is ridership is up!
http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=4080013&&pattern=&stByVal=1&
p1=1&p2=31&tabMode=dataTable&csid= (Ridership does go up and down as people are holidays
and/or work from home.
 If the lines are unprofitable then those lines will require more subsidies -
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/union-pearson-express-looks-unlikely-to-break-
even/article35483928/
 Towns are looking at option to control costs, like Uber -
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/04/03/innisfil-taps-uber-to-fill-public-transit-void.html
 Federal government is funding more transit projects - http://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/plan/ptif-fitc-
eng.php. More transit options mean ridership will be impacted. Yet the liberals killed the transit tax
credit.
 Via Rail also receives subsidies - https://www.viarail.ca/sites/all/files/media/pdfs/About_VIA/our-
company/annual-reports/2016/2016_Annual%20Report_EN.pdf
 https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/05/19/wynne-is-all-aboard-21b-high-speed-rail-
project.html - Liberals cannot even make money with existing routes without subsidies, so how would
high speed route make money?
 There are already issues with intercity transportation including profitability -
https://tvo.org/article/current-affairs/the-next-ontario/how-intercity-bus-service-is-failing-ontarians.
Yet, all levels of governments continue to ignore issues facing rural areas of the country
 TTC has lowest subsidy per rider - https://globalnews.ca/news/1670796/how-does-the-ttcs-funding-
compare-to-other-transit-agencies/. Who subsidizes transit? Property tax owners as well as provincial
taxpayers.
Blog / Transit
Bottom line
I am all about solutions, but unless other options need to be
look at as part of ensuring lines are profitable as well as less
dependent on government:
1. Condos owners should be paying fees if they are on a
route. If you bought near a transit route then part of
your monthly condos fees should include transit costs
2. Transit credits should be restored as way to help reduce
the costs to consumers.
3. Tolls should be charge like London, UK if you drive to
core of major cities in Canada
4. Cities need to look at more advertising models as part of
increasing revenue to transit
5. Transit systems should be merged, especially in large
cities

20. Mayoral Candidate – Jennifer Keesmaat
Transit is very subsidized, right?
https://www.slideshare.net/pau
lyoungcga/transit-ridership-and-
transit-revenue-canada-may-
2018
Transit needs to be integrated.
So, why are you not talking
about integration when it comes
to transit

21.  TTC - https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/as-the-city-explodes-toronto-transit-feels-the-financial-
strain
 Transit is already heavily subsidized with taxpayers moneys. COVID19 will put even more cost pressure on
transit - https://www.masstransitmag.com/management/article/21141289/canada-includes-transit-in-
provincial-restart-funds
 Translink losses https://globalnews.ca/news/7083274/translink-coronavirus-losses/
 Hamilton Transit is looking at reconfiguration of their transit systems -
https://www.hamiltonnews.com/news-story/10016733-hamilton-councillors-test-drive-ideas-to-recoup-
losses-from-transit-service/
 Ottawa Transit System - https://www.ottawamatters.com/local-news/oc-transpo-running-8-million-deficit-
with-more-losses-to-come-2422437
Transit – COVID19

22. Source - https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/greyhound-bus-cancellation-federal-funding-1.4885463
Intercity Transit
The federal government is offering two-
year transitional funding to fill service
gaps for cancelled Greyhound bus routes
in Canada.
Transport Minister Marc Garneau
announced the cost-sharing
arrangement with the provinces and
territories during a news conference on
Parliament Hill today, but did not
provide a figure on how much the
government will put up.
Issues at hand
• No dollar value of the cost sharing
• Provinces would have to pony up funding
• No business case to support the funding
proposal
• Transit across Canada is already heavily
subsidized. Local municipal taxpayers may have
to pony up municipal taxes to support intercity
transit.

23. Source – Stats Canada
Transportation Equipment
• If transit purchased 400 new business a year then it would take 30 years to removed diesel buses from
their fleet

24. Source - https://media.viarail.ca/en/publications
VIA Rail The rail company wants to build a multibillion-dollar new network of dedicated
passenger-rail lines in Ontario and Quebec, so its trains would no longer have to yield to
freight trains on borrowed tracks
https://toronto.citynews.ca/video/2019/06/25/business-report-via-expected-to-
overhaul-corridor-between-windsor-quebec/
Facts:
1. VIA rail already gets a sizable grant from the government -
https://media.viarail.ca/en/publications (2017 In 2017 the total grants (operational
and capital funding) were approximately $354M
2. High speed rail has to be viable - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/high-
speed-rail-1.4915058 - There are other options to fund rail
3. High speed works in Asia to how the population is distributed –
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1149608.shtml
4. High speed rail has been a failure in EU - https://www.ft.com/content/e77dc48e-
7894-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475 or
https://www.euractiv.com/section/railways/news/eus-high-speed-rail-plan-is-
ineffective-unrealistic-say-auditors/
5. There are financing issues - https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-
trends/Catalyst-or-catastrophe-Lessons-from-Asia-s-high-speed-rail-failures
Summary
The liberals never seem to do proper business cases as such throw money at winning
votes and not whether a project is either profitable or viable without direct government
subsidies.

25. 2019 Election / Rural
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/technology/liberals-look-at-quick-changes-in-strategies-targeting-rural-canada-234997/
• Affordable housing is a big issue. Many factors drive affordability of housing, i.e. supply/demand, municipal laws,
construction costs - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-real-estate-and-affordable-housing-
canada-april-2019
• There has been huge investments in internet/broadband – CPC made a commitment during the 2015 election -
https://www.conservative.ca/harper-promises-broadband-expansion-into-more-rural-communities/
• Rural economic strategy – There are challenges with rural economic development, i.e. supply management
• Transportation – lack of intercity transit - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-
subsidizing-rural-bus-service-would-take-canadian-taxpayers-for-a-ride/
• More and more people have the ability to work from home

26. Source – Government of Canada
Capital Investment
• Harper and CPC created many funds to support transit projects -
https://globalnews.ca/news/2062018/harper-expected-to-announce-
funding-for-smarttrack/ (The CPC had a public transit fund
• Harper seen more year over year growth when it came to
transportation and warehousing capital investment
• Trudeau and his team continue to award funding to Montreal -
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/infrastructure-bank-montreal-
metro-rail-loan-1.4794751
• Trudeau rebranded many of the CPC funds in hope no one would
notice .
• Transit is heavily subsidized -
https://www.ttc.ca/About_the_TTC/Annual_reports.jsp

27. The Liberals again are being less than truthful when it comes to transit. The CPC provided dedicated funds to transit. If you look at data then you will see CPC
spent significant money on public transit projects in AB, BC and ON. Liberals seem to only focus on PQ
Trudeau always blames people because he will never own any of his failures. BTW: Where is all this transit money promised by Trudeau? I see lots going to
PQ, but little going to Ontario!
I see @justintrudeau is in BC for more handouts. It must be election time as Trudeau seems to think the only provinces that matter to him are BC and PC
 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-public-transit-canada-april-2019 or https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/79m-
for-buses-in-b-c-as-part-of-federal-provincial-municipal-investment-pm-236143/
 https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/policy/anre-menu-3017.htm
 https://www.tc.gc.ca/eng/policy/anre-menu-3037.htm
 https://cupe.ca/fact-sheet-public-transit-privatization-and-canada-infrastructure-bank
 https://www.google.com/search?q=Public+transit+spending+canada+by+year&client=firefox-b-
d&sa=N&biw=1137&bih=609&tbs=cdr:1,cd_min:10/15/2015&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=If9qV_XH4M9foM%253A%252CDwO900VZr51ZFM%252C
_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kSE9HIcIzP9mEKN_QJW2pJmZbx2BQ&ved=2ahUKEwiUp_my3KzjAhUoAp0JHf5yCYE4ChD1ATAEegQIBhAG#imgrc=If9qV_XH4M9foM:
 Buy PQ - https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2019/05/25/premier-legault-to-force-the-caisse-to-purchase-rem-trains-made-in-quebec.html
 Bombardier - https://www.tvo.org/article/why-bombardier-is-on-the-brink-in-thunder-bay?fbclid=IwAR1EtMjFlozwtf8HQC31OZh2p_UWFag29_i-
nuLdk6YIStrtCo1LhKDOG74
 BC - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/79m-for-buses-in-b-c-as-part-of-federal-provincial-municipal-investment-pm-236143/
Blog – PQ, BC and Ontario Transit

28. Mississauga Transit
Justin, Do you ever really read and/or listen what people say about the environment
FYI - Mississauga Transit built a new network to moved people faster to Subway -
https://urbantoronto.ca/news/2017/12/mississauga-transitway-complete-%E2%80%94-now
This was started in 2010 (under @stephenharper and not @JustinTrudeau

29.  TTC “The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an 80 per cent drop in ridership and a loss of $90 million in
monthly revenue – money that is essential to sustain operations. In addition to the layoffs, the TTC has
also implemented the following cost-saving measures:” Source -
https://www.ttc.ca/News/2020/May/24_05_20NR_costsavings.jsp
 Go Transit “A massive drop in ridership has forced the temporary layoff of 196 Bombardier workers
assigned to GO Transit and UP Express, company spokesperson Annick Robinson says.“Regarding our
work in Ontario with Metrolinx, we have, since the beginning of the health crisis, been able to keep our
team fully employed,” Robinson said in an email Thursday.” -
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/covid-19-has-transit-services-pleading-for-money-from-federal-
government-as-fare-boxes-run-empty or https://torontosun.com/news/local-news/huge-ridership-drop-
prompts-layoffs-at-go-transit-up-express
COVID 19 Transit

30.  http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2017/03/26/public-transit-tax-credit-never-did-much-good
 Key quote ""As a strategy for reducing car traffic, changing public behavior to promote increased mode-share for public transit
and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, we find that the policy is expensive and considerably less cost-effective than
potential alternatives," it found. To get people to drive less, we should charge road tolls, that study says, because there's proof
those work.
1. People have to drive to locations to take subways and/or mass transit like go transit
2. On average 15% of a household budget is dedicated to transportation
3. It was tax credit which meant that people with more income would benefited from the tax credit
4. If you want to help the poor then government should have considered a GST type of rebate for transit.
5. 5. Fleets of transit vehicles are moving to more environmentally friendly vehicles. The process to convert takes time as such
the impact on the environment would be difficult to measures
6. This is just another tax grab design to keep more government money
7. Government should take transit to look at who is using transit and not make assumptions.
8. Tax credit helps millennials, especially those ones that like to use public transit. More and more millennials are living in
downtown core areas as such are more likely taking transit to get around the cit
9. How can you truly look at emissions if you do not look at all aspect of emissions?
10. 10. Air quality has improved in Canada due to many factors like less manufacturing, better scrubbing, better emission
control systems in cars, etc.