GDP growth is led by real estate and govt spending. NR sector continues to lag other sectors in terms of growth despite high commodities prices Household debt is at all-time high Canada still faces challenges with productivity

1. GDP ANALYSIS AND
COMMENTARY – CANADA –
JANUARY 2022
Paul Young CPA CGA
March 31, 2022

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. AGENDA
• GDP Forecast
• G7 GDP
• Employment Growth vs GDP Growth
• GDP by Industry
• GDP per capita
• Blog / Slow Growth
• Blog / Circular Economy
• Stock Market
• Supply Chain
• Green Inflation with the Circular and Green Economy
• Automation
• Summary
• Education/Skills Development

4. GDP
FORECAST
Source – Scotiabank and
Government of Canada
Forecast_BNS_GDP.p
df

5. G7 GDP GROWTH

6. GDP BY INDUSTRY
Summary:
Advance information indicates an approximate 0.8% expansion in real GDP in February. Notable
increases were observed in the manufacturing sector as well as in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas
extraction, accommodation and food services, and construction. Utilities contracted following strong
activity in January, due primarily to cold temperatures. Owing to its preliminary nature, this estimate will
be updated on April 30 with the release of the official GDP data for February.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220331/dq220331a-eng.htm
GDP by Sector -
Canada - January 2022.pdf

7. GDP (MONTH OVER MONTH)
Source – Stats Canada

8. GDP BY INDUSTRY
Source – Stats Canada

9. GDP BY INDUSTRY
Source – Stats Canada

10. PER CAPITA INCOME / CANADA
GDP per income and
expenditure.pdf

11. BLOG – SLOW GROWTH
• Canada’s economy went from 3% in 2017 to 1.9% in 2019. The USA economy grew at 2.2% in 2019.
• Canada took $1B surplus YTD Nov/15 and turned that into 15B+ deficit for growth on average of 2.0%. The CPC
were averaging 2.3% growth post-2009 recession.
• Goods-service sector lags the service sector in terms of job growth
• All levels of government have not prioritized the supply chain including making key products strategic to the
health of the economy - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reshore-supply-chain-management
Here is my previous work on the economy:
• 2016 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2016-november-2016-gdp-gross-domestic-product-canada
• 2018 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-the-real-truth
• Oct/19 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-growth-and-the-major-issues-facing-global-gdp
• Dec/20 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/scorecard-and-gdp-canada-december-2020-and-november-2020
• Pandemic
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-best-to-managed-a-pandemic-february-14-2021

12. CIRCULAR ECONOMY AND THE
ENVIRONMENT
Here is a brief look at the circular economy. Data, AI, security, and platform can play a key role in
supporting the low-carbon economy. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-maximized-
the-circular-economy-249424158

13. PRESENTATION TITLE 13
Summary:
U.S. equities were higher at the close on Friday, as gains in the Technology, Consumer Services and Consumer Goods sectors propelled shares
higher.
At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.80%, while the S&P 500 index climbed 1.17%, and the NASDAQ Composite
index climbed 2.05%.
The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Salesforce.com Inc (NYSE:CRM), which rose 3.96% or 8.33 points
to trade at 218.74 at the close. Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) added 2.98% or 3.80 points to end at 131.21 and Visa Inc Class A (NYSE:V) was up 2.65%
or 5.65 points to 219.10 in late trade.
Biggest losers included Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ), which lost 2.39% or 1.25 points to trade at 51.11 in late trade. Johnson &
Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) declined 1.11% or 1.97 points to end at 174.83 and Dow Inc (NYSE:DOW) shed 0.67% or 0.42 points to 62.42.
Source - https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-shares-higher-at-close-of-trade-dow-jones-industrial-average-up-080-2657089
1. Geopolitical risks - https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/03/18/the-russia-ukraine-war-and-other-geopolitical-risks/
2. Commodity - https://www.atb.com/wealth/good-advice/markets/rising-commodity-prices-and-their-impacts/ and
https://www.mining.com/web/the-worlds-biggest-commodities-markets-are-starting-to-seize-up/
3. LNG - https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/Venture-Global-pushes-forward-2-new-LNG-17012163.php and
https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/samsung-in-940m-contract-to-build-lng-power-plant-in-vietnam/
4. Housing - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/rising-mortgage-rates-won-t-be-enough-to-end-u-s-housing-boom-1.1739745
5. Debt https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/growing-risk-of-broader-sovereign-debt-crisis-around-the-world-legal-expert~2405374 and
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-default-fears-ease-as-key-debt-payments-reach-investors-1.1739477
6. Inflation - https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2022/03/18/inflation-could-wreak-vengeance-on-the-worlds-poor/
7. ESG - https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/companies-should-know-benefits-and-5755484/ and https://www.wolterskluwer.com/en/expert-
insights/the-5-biggest-hurdles-to-effective-esg-reporting
8. Stagflation - https://www.etftrends.com/active-etf-channel/threat-of-stagflation-and-recession-fears-could-push-yields-lower/
9. Food costs - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/soaring-prices-everything-used-food-110008963.html
10. Critical Metals - https://investorintel.com/market-analysis/market-analysis-intel/jack-lifton-on-how-the-demand-for-critical-materials-for-
consumer-goods-has-made-china-the-center-of-the-earth/
Blog – What is next for the Stock Market – March 18, 2022
Rate Hikes Dot the
Landscape.pdf
Stock market news
live updates Stocks deliver best weekly performance since November 2020 as S&P 500 jumps 6% from last week.pdf
WestpacWeekly.pdf
WestpacWeekly.pdf The Russia–Ukraine
War and Other Geopolitical Risks CFA Institute Enterprising Investor.pdf
Rising commodity
prices and their impacts ATB Financial.pdf
The world’s biggest
commodities markets are starting to seize up - MINING.COM.pdf
Venture Global
pushes forward 2 new LNG facilities in Louisiana as global demand soars.pdf
Samsung in $940m
contract to build LNG power plant in Vietnam - Global Const
Rising Mortgage
Rates Won’t Be Enough to End U.S. Housing Boom - BNN Bloomberg.pdf
Growing risk of
broader sovereign debt crisis around the world Legal expert - Video - BNN.pdf
Russia default fears
ease as key debt payments reach investors - BNN Bloomberg.pdf
Inflation could wreak
vengeance on the world’s poor.pdf
Companies Should
Know Benefits and Risks of ESG Reporting Miles & Stockbridge P.C. - JDSupra.pdf
The 5 biggest
hurdles to effective ESG reporting Wolters Kluwer.pdf
Threat of Stagflation
and Recession Fears Could Push Yields Lower.pdf
Soaring Prices for
Everything Used to Make Food Brings More Inflation.pdf
How the demand for
Critical Materials for consumer goods has already made China the center of the Earth..pdf
U.S. shares higher at
close of trade; Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.80% By Investing.com.pdf
Summary:
U.S. equities were higher at the close on Friday, as gains in the Technology, Consumer Services
and Consumer Goods sectors propelled shares higher.
At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.80%, while the S&P 500 index
climbed 1.17%, and the NASDAQ Composite index climbed 2.05%.
The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Salesforce.com Inc
(NYSE:CRM), which rose 3.96% or 8.33 points to trade at 218.74 at the close. Nike Inc
(NYSE:NKE) added 2.98% or 3.80 points to end at 131.21 and Visa Inc Class A (NYSE:V) was
up 2.65% or 5.65 points to 219.10 in late trade.
Biggest losers included Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ), which lost 2.39% or 1.25
points to trade at 51.11 in late trade. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) declined 1.11% or 1.97
points to end at 174.83 and Dow Inc (NYSE:DOW) shed 0.67% or 0.42 points to 62.42.
Source - https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-shares-higher-at-close-of-trade-dow-
jones-industrial-average-up-080-2657089
1. Geopolitical risks - https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/03/18/the-russia-ukraine-war-
and-other-geopolitical-risks/
2. Commodity - https://www.atb.com/wealth/good-advice/markets/rising-commodity-prices-and-
their-impacts/ and https://www.mining.com/web/the-worlds-biggest-commodities-markets-
are-starting-to-seize-up/

14. CANADA AND STOCK MARKET
PRESENTATION TITLE 14
BMO_Stiock.pdf

15. UNITED STATES – STOCK MARKET
PRESENTATION TITLE 15
US market close
Indices wobble before bell, Nasdaq falls.pdf

16. PRESENTATION TITLE 16
Summary:
Stocks surged into the close reversing earlier losses on Friday as investors took in earnings results from some major tech
companies and another hot print on inflation at the end of another volatile week.
The S&P 500 closed up 2.4%, posting a weekly advance and ending a three-week losing streak. The the Dow ended
higher by 1.65%, and Nasdaq gained 3%.
Technology stocks led the way higher as Apple (AAPL) jumped after the iPhone-maker reported record quarterly sales
and better-than-expected profits despite supply chain challenges. Meanwhile, Robinhood (HOOD) shares shook off
overnight losses to trade higher after the trading platform missed on quarterly revenue, posted a larger-than-expected
quarterly decline in users, and offered disappointing guidance.
Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-28-2022-231329863.html
1. Stock Market - https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-market-rally-steps-up-as-apple-
leads-but-be-wary-5-key-earnings/
2. Commodity - https://capital.com/commodity-supercycle-explained
3. Geopolitical risks - https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2022
4. Income inequality - https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/income-inequality-improved-to-record-low-in-q3/
5. GDP Growth - https://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/gdp-growth-in-2021-signals-a-strong-economic-recovery
6. Housing - https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/127530138/new-zealands-runaway-housing-market-not-unique-
globally
7. Pensions - https://www.pionline.com/industry-voices/commentary-what-could-mandatory-temperature-alignment-mean-uk-
pension-funds
8. Insurance - https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/au/news/breaking-news/allianz-boss-lifts-lid-on-risk-barometer-323651.aspx
9. ESG - https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/canadas-biggest-public-companies-are-lagging-on-esg-
reporting/363539
10. Consumer spending - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-consumer-spending-drops-inflation-135649366.html
Blog – Stock Market – W/E – January 28, 2022
globalweekahead202
20128.pdf
weekly-economic-wat
ch_20222801.pdf
BottomLine_20220128
.pdf
CFIB Small Business
Barometer (January 2022).pdf
Stock Equity - WE -
January 28 2022.pdf
WestpacWeekly20220
131.pdf
Commentary What
could mandatory temperature alignment mean for U.K. pension funds Pensions & Investments.pdf
Allianz boss lifts lid
on Risk Barometer Insurance Business Australia.pdf
Canada's biggest
public companies are lagging on ESG reporting Wealth Professional.pdf
U.S. Consumer
Spending Drops With Inflation Hitting 40-Year High.pdf
Stock market news
live updates Stock gains accelerate into the close S&P 500 adds 2.4%.pdf
Dow Jones Futures
Market Rally Steps Up As Apple Leads, But Be Wary; 5 Key Earnings Investor's Business Daily.pdf
What is a commodity
supercycle and are we in one right now .pdf
Eurasia Group Top
Risks 2022.pdf
Income inequality
improved to record low in Q3 Advisor's Edge.pdf
GDP Growth In 2021
Signals A Strong Economic Recovery - InsuranceNewsNet.pdf
New Zealand's
runaway housing market not unique globally Stuff.co.nz.pdf
Summary:
Stocks surged into the close reversing earlier losses on Friday as investors took in earnings
results from some major tech companies and another hot print on inflation at the end of another
volatile week.
The S&P 500 closed up 2.4%, posting a weekly advance and ending a three-week losing streak.
The the Dow ended higher by 1.65%, and Nasdaq gained 3%.
Technology stocks led the way higher as Apple (AAPL) jumped after the iPhone-maker reported
record quarterly sales and better-than-expected profits despite supply chain challenges.
Meanwhile, Robinhood (HOOD) shares shook off overnight losses to trade higher after the
trading platform missed on quarterly revenue, posted a larger-than-expected quarterly decline in
users, and offered disappointing guidance.
Source - https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-january-28-2022-
231329863.html
1. Stock Market - https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-
futures-market-rally-steps-up-as-apple-leads-but-be-wary-5-key-earnings/
2. Commodity - https://capital.com/commodity-supercycle-explained
3. Geopolitical risks - https://www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/top-risks-2022
4. Income inequality - https://www.advisor.ca/news/economic/income-inequality-improved-to-
record-low-in-q3/

17. SUPPLY CHAIN
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reshore-supply-chain-and-build-a-resilient-supply-chain-251040548
Farmers are seeing higher input costs
CAN trails countries like AUS in in terms of developing natural resources in a sustainable way
Food processors are struggling with labor shortages.
USA is becoming a world leader in LNG

18. GREEN INFLATION AND THE CIRCULAR AND GREEN ECONOMY
I have written many presentations and blogs on the circular and green economies. My biggest frustration is that policy focus
has been to narrow in areas of carbon tax and more regulations. The main drivers of environment are land, water, forest
management, air quality, and waste management. Technology can play a role with protecting the environment without taxing
and overregulating the economy to death. We need to protect the environment while growing an inclusive economy.
I believe more focus should be on the tax act, R&D, strategic partnerships, standardization of ESG reporting, risk, and crisis
management, reforming the WTO, and better urban and rural planning. Countries that are highest polluters should be forced
to change their ways!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/protecting-the-environment-through-proper-policies-relate-to-green-and-
circular-economy

19. AUTOMATION
Frost & Sullivan’s recent analysis finds that Internet of Things (IoT) adoption is growing in India. Backed by strong
connectivity and coverage, rising internet penetration, a surge in smart applications adoption, new business models,
and government initiatives such as smart city projects, the Indian IoT market is expected to reach $9.28 billion by
2025 from $4.98 billion in 2020. Pandemic-triggered changes in enterprise behavior and verticals’ focus on
automation are driving the market.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/pandemic-accelerated-digital-transformation-and-
adoption-of-automation-fuel-global-iot-market-277565/
India along with other countries will continue to adopt IoT as part of 5G network expansion!
This ties nicely into my work on Industry 4.0 - https://ibm.box.com/s/rsp6p9tez8uru9fo0wu5d13bxt7rtrr0

20. SUMMARY
• Canada had a structural deficit pre-covid 19 of $15B - https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/canada-pms-deal-with-
opposition-party-raises-deficit-inflation-alarm-bells and https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-fiscal-
management-deficit-and-debt-january-2022pptx
• Trudeau promised a thriving economy that would leave no one behind. That has not been the case as more and more
Canadians are struggling with high household debt - https://www.mpamag.com/ca/news/general/statcan-household-
mortgage-debt-continues-to-mount/399682
• Trudeau move Canada GDP to debt driven through higher real estate and public spending -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/search_my_uploads?type=&new=&q=GDP
• Trudeau policies did little to improve competitiveness - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-improve-
canada-global-competitiveness-251338416
Blog – GDP and Canada – January 2022
Advance information indicates an approximate 0.8% expansion in
real GDP in February. Notable increases were observed in the
manufacturing sector as well as in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas
extraction, accommodation and food services, and construction.
Utilities contracted following strong activity in January, due primarily to
cold temperatures. Owing to its preliminary nature, this estimate will
be updated on April 30 with the release of the official GDP data for
February.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220331/dq220331a-
eng.htm
GDP by Sector -
Canada - January 2022.pdf
Unrealized value of
skills vacancies increasing in Canada.pdf
New report by
Deloitte Canada and auticon Canada finds employment barriers, lack of workplace support for autistic community - Bloomberg.pdf
essay1-understandin
g-prosperity-gap-between-australia-canada.pdf
Here’s why
Australians make more money than Canadians Fraser Institute.pdf
The Daily — Natural
resource indicators, fourth quarter 2021.pdf
Inomin Makes New
Critical Minerals Discovery at Beaver Hitting 252 Metres of 20.6% Magnesium, 0.16% Nickel, and 0.33% Chromium INN.pdf
Rare Earths, Scarce
Metals, and the Struggle for Supply Chain Security - Foreign Policy Research Institute.pdf
Canadian Real Estate
Is About To Experience A “Full-Scale Attack,” Warns Big Six Bank - Better Dwelling.pdf
Missing element of
the National Housing Strategy urban, rural and northern Indigenous housing strategy - CHF Canada.pdf
U.S. private payrolls
rise solidly; corporate profits growth slows SaltWire.pdf
Canada plans to
boost oil exports five per cent to ease energy supply crisis Financial Post.pdf
LNG project in
Canada’s east could be sped up to supply Europe - BNN Bloomberg.pdf
Calls for more
charging stations, incentives for EVs in Canada’s climate plan.pdf
Trudeau climate plan
calls for 42% cut in oil and gas emissions - MINING.COM.pdf
Kiewit and Babcock -
carbon capturing.pdf
Laying the
Foundation Canada's 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan - RBC Thought Leadership.pdf
Matthew Lau
Trudeau's failure on economic growth is a firing offence Financial Post.pdf
Henry Hazlitt and the
Failure of Keynesian Economics - Foundation for Economic Education.pdf
1. Competitiveness - https://home.kpmg/ca/en/home/media/press-releases/2022/03/budget-
2022-business-want-innovation-and-growth-focus.html and
https://thebusinesscouncil.ca/publication/budget-2022-must-spur-long-term-growth-and-
prosperity/
2. Skills gaps - https://www.globenewswire.com/news-
release/2022/03/02/2395373/0/en/Unrealized-value-of-skills-vacancies-increasing-in-Canada-
amid-labour-shortage.html
3. Productivity - https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/heres-why-australians-make-more-
money-than-canadians
4. Mining sector continues to trail real estate and government when it comes to GDP growth -
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220324/dq220324b-eng.htm

21. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT
• If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning, and
development then feel
free to review my material
on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA
CGA)
• These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or systemic
issues related to economy
including government
policies