Analysis and Commentary - Geopolitical Risks and Threats - December 31, 2022.pptx

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND THREATS – ANALYSIS
AND COMMENTARY
Paul Young CPA CGA
December 31, 2022

PAUL YOUNG - BIO
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos
CPA, CGA (1996)
Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
SME – Customer Success Management
SME – Risk Management
SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
SME – Public Policy
SME – Emerging Technology
SME – Business Process Change
SME – Financial Solutions
SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
SME – Supply Chain Management
SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
SME – Internal Controls and Auditing

AGENDA
• Inflation
• Stock Market
• Wealth
• Cases
• Deaths
• Vaccinations by country
• Vaccinations / Delivery
• Vaccines / Approval
• Vaccinations / Procurement
• Employment – January 2021 (USA vs Canada)
• Unemployment (Canada vs OECD and G7)
• Stock Market
• Global GDP / Forecast
• Blog – Crisis Management
• Blog – New Normal
• Blog – Supply Chain
• Summary
• Training/Development

TOP GEOPOLITICAL THREATS
Source - https://www.ey.com/en_jo/geostrategy/when-political-disruption-surrounds-you-whats-your-next-strategic-
move
1. A two-tiered world
2. Evolving great power relationships
3. Middle powers on the global stage
4. Rise of cyber piracy
5. Climate change political nexus
6. Green mineral nationalism
7. Increase intervention supply chain
8. Technology nationalization
9. Expansion of the Brussels effect
10. Inequality and push for redistribution

SUMMARY
PRESENTATION TITLE 5
Summary
• Concerns over housing debt and affordable housing are driving down markets
• Access to critical metals has become a growing concerns for countries trying to shift to cleaner economic policies
• Lack of focus on systemic issues with inflation
• Supply chain disruptions continue to plague global supply chains
• High inflation is challenge for global central banks
• Threat of recession continues to rise each week
• Bear market could lead to issues with pension solvency
Blog – Stock Market Analysis and Commentary for the WE December 30, 2022
Summary:
Stocks slipped on Friday to end a brutal 2022 with a whimper, as Wall Street wrapped up its
worst year since 2008 on a sour note.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 73.55 points, or 0.22%, to close at 33,147.25. The S&P
500 shed 0.25% to end at 3,839.50. The Nasdaq Composite ticked down 0.11% to 10,466.88.
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/29/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
Drones, awards, and
e-commerce evolution RTIH’s biggest retail technology articles on LinkedIn — Retail Technology Innovation Hub.pdf
Crude Oil Prices
Today OilPrice.com.pdf
Kitco - Spot Nickel
Historical Charts and Graphs - Nickel charts - Industrial metals.pdf
Copper Price Latest
Futures Prices, Charts & Market News Nasdaq.pdf
Daily Metal Price
Aluminum Price (USD _ Pound) Chart for the Last Year.pdf
Commodities - Live
Quote Price Trading Data.pdf
Canola Prices and
Canola Futures Prices - Barchart.com.pdf
20223012_CD Howe
and Emissions.pdf
IM_Livingston_2022_
1213_0.pdf
Canada is hurting
due to the Liberals' misguided priorities Opinion Financial Post.pdf
Daily Markets Stocks
Close the Book on a Challenging Year Nasdaq.pdf
Stock market today
Dow wobbles to close lower as tech tantrum continues By Investing.com.pdf
Trading opportunities
Forex, commodities, indices and crypto [Video].pdf
Commodities 2023
Two-tier freight market may keep global tanker rates firm S&P Global Commodity Insights.pdf
Food Insecurity a
growing reality in Renfrew County - CityNews Ottawa.pdf
Good year for grains
and oilseeds in terms of prices in 2022 - SaskToday.ca.pdf
Factory Automation
Market Forecast to 2028 - Increasing Number of Product Launches & Growing Collaborative Partnerships Between Companies.pdf
Here's how much
housing affordability tanked this year.pdf
The shock and awe
2023 global market rebound approaching - The Globe and Mail.pdf
Thai Q3 household
debt to GDP slows but remains a risk - Global Rubber Market News.pdf
Say so long to 2022
on The Rebound - Supply Chain 24_7.pdf
Why lithium price
drop is set to become a boon for EV industry.pdf
Africa Could Africa
Replace China As the World's Source of Rare Earth Elements - allAfrica.com.pdf
Crude Oil Slumps on
Travel Concerns, Forecasted Production Increases - Charles Schwab - Commentaries - Advisor Perspectives.pdf
Natural Gas Prices
Set For A Sustained Rally In 2023 OilPrice.com.pdf
EU’s ESG Reporting
Standards Move Ahead While Global Rules Lag.pdf
IFRS' International
Sustainability Standards Board to Open China Office - ESG Today.pdf
4 Themes Shaping
the 2023 Global Investment Landscape LinkedIn.pdf
Stratfor The World's
Leading Geopolitical Intelligence Platform.pdf
Mining leads Africa
hopes of a strong 2023 for FDI - Investment Monitor.pdf
LME ends chaotic
year with metal stockpiles perilously low - MINING.COM.pdf
(1) Grant Cardone on
Twitter Lumber prices are lower than 2018. https __t.co_rN1fHYlXH2 _ Twitter.pdf
Lagging productivity
in construction is driving up building costs Article ING Think.pdf
Global economy is
heading into a decade of low growth, economist says Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide.pdf
Battle against
inflation to continue amid global uncertainties, Retail News, ET Retail.pdf
Technology Trends to
Watch in 2023 Hive Life Magazine.pdf
Top 100 Business
Trends in 2023.pdf
CES 2023 tech to
watch EVs, the metaverse, NFTs, and more ZDNET.pdf
Winds of change are
blowing in food production system - Manitoba Co-operator.pdf
1. Commodities - https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-
news/energy-transition/123022-two-tier-freight-market-may-keep-global-tanker-rates-firm-
into-2023
2. Food Prices and Security - https://ottawa.citynews.ca/valley-news/food-insecurity-a-growing-
reality-in-renfrew-county-6305167
3. Agriculture - https://www.sasktoday.ca/central/agriculture/agriculture-this-week-great-farm-
year-passes-and-23-awaits-6291935
4. Automation - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/factory-automation-market-forecast-2028-
123800082.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_r

BMO – CONSUMER PRICE INDEX BMO - Inflation - CPI
- Canada - July 2022.pdf
Canadian CPI (Aug.)
— Another Step Down a Long Road.pdf
U.S. CPI Stubbornly
Sticky.pdf
Cdn CPI — Not
Running Up That Hill, But Still On It.pdf

WEALTH global-wealth-report-
2015.pdf
At $514 trillion, China
overtakes US in terms of amassing the biggest net worth, World News wionews.com.pdf
The rapid growth in
global wealth McKinsey.pdf

LATEST FORECAST
PRESENTATI, ON TITLE 12

COVID
Source -
https://graphics.reuters.co
m/world-coronavirus-
tracker-and-
maps/countries-and-
territories/canada/
https://www.nytimes.com/in
teractive/2021/world/covid-
cases.html

VACCINES
APPROVAL
Source -
https://www.nytimes.com/inter
active/2020/science/coronaviru
s-vaccine-tracker.html

PROCUREMENT
/
VACCINATIONS
Source -
https://launchandscalefaster.or
g/COVID-19

VACCINATION
DOSAGE
Source -
https://www.economist.co
m/graphic-
detail/tracking-
coronavirus-across-the-
world

• Source – USA government
USA RETAIL SALES BY KEY SEGMENT

USA VS CANADA – RETAIL SALES
BMO -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/e98
57d59-9185-4881-bfd4-a205d63c64cf/
U.S. Retail Sales No
Gas.pdf
A Summertime
Slump in Sales.pdf
BMO -
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/
detail/5d441999-89ef-4350-9554-
8300c835fb48/
A Real Bump in
Volumes.pdf

BLOG – CRISIS MANAGEMENT
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/crisis-and-emergency-
management-how-best-to-manage-risk
All Levels of government need to have audited emergency management plans for all their
departments, GBEs, and agencies

AUDIT REPORT / CANADA PANDEMIC
Crisis Management
Auditor/Report
Despite nearly two decades of warnings, planning and government spending, the
Public Health Agency of Canada was not ready for the global pandemic and did not
appreciate the threat it posed in its early stages, Canada's auditor general says.
In a hard-hitting review released today, Auditor General Karen Hogan took the
country's primary pandemic response agency to task for failures in early warning,
surveillance, risk assessments, data-sharing with the provinces and follow-up on
Canadian travelers who were ordered into quarantine.
"The agency was not adequately prepared to respond to the pandemic, and it
underestimated the potential impact of the virus at the onset of the pandemic," said
the AG's review — one of three that looked at the Liberal government's management
of the COVID-19 crisis, which as of Thursday had killed 22,780 Canadians and
brought the country's economy to its knees.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/auditor-general-pandemic-covid-phac-1.5963895
Here is my work on crisis management -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-there-needs-to-be-audited-reports-of-
crisis-emergency-management-policies-and-procedures

NEW NORMAL
Here are many links on great work by Mckinsey Group - https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/coronavirus-
leading-through-the-crisis?cid=other-eml-nsl-mip-
mck&hlkid=e220291424cb421991e4e6a3b37ecb2d&hctky=11493232&hdpid=b812b692-ed48-496d-a1e4-
9eb133561e6b#
I can add a bit more color in terms of what needs to transpire:
1. Careers in demand are those that are in areas like skills trades or healthcare or Information technology.
2. World continues to grow public sector employment at higher rate than the goods-producing sector.
3. Targeting policies that will support the reshoring of key parts of the supply chain.
4. Better balance between regulations when it comes to supporting getting goods to market.
5. More targeted focus of customers on areas like customer success to better help drive transformation of both the
public and private sectors.
6. Information technology will play a key role in terms of transforming the economy.
7. Fixing issues with global trade including the elimination of protectionism policies.
8. Reforming taxation including transforming tax acts as well as closing-down tax havens.
9. Reforming the housing market to ensure it is more affordable.
10. Reforming the size of government as part of moving to a digital model
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/new-normal-canada-and-the-world-february-2021-242414576

SUPPLY CHAIN
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-trade-unexpectedly-surges-despite-virus-outbreaks-
1.1648671?taid=61373efe2b6d260001ced600&utm_campaign=trueAnthem+Manual&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_sour
ce=twitter
There are enormous issues with ports, rails, and other parts of the infrastructure's ability to move goods to the end consumer.
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn
Blog – How to build a resilient Supply Chain using Data and AI
https://ibm.box.com/s/bqy9mr0ktlgi64sbf49o4rg5d9w0rqkn

SUPPLY CHAIN
Blog – Ecommerce and Retail – Container Shortage and Risks to Supply Chain
Ship-building companies continue to work on building ever larger container vessels, and there’s little
evidence this trend will stop anytime soon.
Today, an estimated 90% of the world’s goods are transported by sea, with 60% of that – including virtually
all your imported fruits, gadgets and appliances – packed in large steel containers. The rest is mainly
commodities like oil or grains that are poured directly into the hull. In total, about US$14 trillion of the
world’s goods spend some time inside a big metal box.
In short, without the standardized container, the global supply chain that society depends upon – and that I
study – would not exist.
A recent shortage of these containers is raising costs and snarling supply chains of thousands of products
across the world. The situation highlights the importance of the simple yet essential cargo containers that,
from a distance, resemble Lego blocks floating on the sea.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/features/global-shortage-of-shipping-containers-highlights-their-importance-
in-getting-goods-to-amazon-warehouses-store-shelves-and-your-door-in-time-for-christmas/ or
https://www.slideshare.net/secret/4vX74AAoi3O2vC

RISK MANAGEMENT
Blog – Managing Data as part of Mitigating Geopolitical Risks –
Private and Public Sector
• This ties nicely into my many blogs around how best to
managed data as it relates to geopolitical events:
• Audit and Risk Analytics
https://ibm.ent.box.com/folder/116292560123
• Crisis and Emergency Management -
https://ibm.box.com/s/rsp6p9tez8uru9fo0wu5d13bxt7rtrr0

OTHER GEOPOLITICAL RISKS
Source - https://globalriskinsights.com/
1. Chile Election
2. Sudan political instability
3. EMEA dependence on Russia Natural Gas
4. South Africa political instability
5. Future Pandemic outbreak
6. China and Taiwan
7. Ukraine and Russia Conflict
8. Military coups in Africa
9. Iran nuclear weapons
10. Hamas and Hezbollah

IMPROVING IMMUNE SYSTEMS
• Improving the immune system - https://www.houstonmethodist.org/blog/articles/2020/mar/5-ways-to-boost-
your-immune-system/
• Food and immune system - https://www.healthline.com/health/food-nutrition/foods-that-boost-the-immune-
system
• Startups - https://www.medicalstartups.org/top/immunotherapy/
• Gene and cell therapy = https://www.drugtargetreview.com/article/100201/highlights-from-drug-target-
reviews-cell-gene-therapy-advancements-online-summit/

BOOSTER SHOTS
Source - https://fortune.com/2022/01/19/covid-19-
boosters-block-immunity-omicron-study-finds/
COVID boosters do
not provide protection against Omicron, study finds Fortune - Heatlhcare.pdf

FOOD COSTS
1. Trucker shortage
2. Factor labor shortage
3. Rising warehouse costs
4. Food scarcity
5. Supply chain delays
https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/5-reasons-why-groceries-are-so-expensive-right-now/?ecms_id=6176bbf5-ba66-
4d82-89f1-df3e9ceb9969&ecms_short=ART6517&doc_type=ted_article&sponsored=&acct=&parent_id=d2286731-
fef9-4f48-8a45-
df0f64c043f9&utm_content=featuredstory&position=2&linktype=title&channel=email&campaign_type=thomas_ind
ustry_update&campaign_name=tiu220204&utm_campaign=tiu220204&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thomas_i
ndustry_update&tinid=221763045
Here is my work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/logistics-warehousing-distribution-and-transportation-
sector-september-2022pptx

HEALTHCARE REFORM
• Moving to private / public healthcare model as part of reducing wait times
• Revising insurance payout including single pay system (This will require alignment with various systems through a
better automation model)
• Building up critical medical supplies including annual audits of supplies
• Mandatory risk and crisis management for all hospitals, medical centers, and long-term care facilities
• Expanding spots at long-term care facilities including more oversight
• Addressing issues with drug costs
• Fixing the delivery model for healthcare including more digitalization, elimination of layers of management, etc.
• Putting the focus on patient care
• Adopting more automation through use of technology
• Increasing seats at medical and nursing schools
• Addressing issues with foreign credentials
• Mandatory reporting by hospitals, medical centers, and long-term care facilities into the government. Audit
Analytics and Ministry of health can then set up triggers as part managing the data including outcomes.
• Here is my work on healthcare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-healthcare-crisis-pptx

SUMMARY
Healthcare models
around the world
continue to face
pressure to delivery
healthcare to
patient
More focus needs to
be on all levels of
government have
audited emergency
and risk
management plans
More needs to be
done to mitigate the
future impact of
pandemics through
healthier living,
vaccines, gene and
immune therapy
All levels of
government need to
do a better job on
safeguarding their
assets
Blog – Geopolitical Risks and Threats Analysis and Commentary for the WE December 31, 2022
CISO will continue to be focused on reducing the impact from cybersecurity attacks -
https://www.securitymagazine.com/blogs/14-security-blog/post/98757-how-cisos-can-stay-one-step-
ahead-of-2023s-risks-threats-and-attacks
Domestic and international threats continue to plague governments around the world -
https://www.thehrdirector.com/business-news/press-release/many-businesses-risk-going-perma-crisis-
mode/
Ability of both the private and public sectors to embrace the circular economy through ESG reporting
will play a key role for countries trying to achieve net zero -
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/230463/5-threats-to-sustainable-investing-in-2023.aspx
Technology will continue to drove outcomes for both the private and public sectors - https://www.mid-
day.com/lifestyle/travel/article/top-five-travel-technology-trends-to-watch-out-for-in-2023-23262989
More focus will be on health and wellness programs -
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamiegold/2022/12/30/8-top-2022-trends-with-home-and-housing-
wellness-impacts/?sh=72696e397af5
Global GDP will face major headwinds as it heads into 2023 -
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/global-economy-is-heading-into-a-decade-of-low-growth-
economist-says/
More focus on policies that will support the circular and sustainable sector of the economy -
https://www.thestar.com.my/starpicks/2022/12/30/zero-ing-on-the-value-of-a-circular-economy
Four Trends That Will
Shape Retail In 2023.pdf
ZERO-ING ON THE
VALUE OF A CIRCULAR ECONOMY The Star.pdf
PS Commentators’
Predictions for 2023 by PS editors & Stuart Whatley - Project Syndicate.pdf
How CISOs can stay
one step ahead of 2023’s risks, threats and attacks Security Magazine.pdf
europe-bleak-midwin
ter.pdf
Many businesses at
risk going into ‘perma-crisis’ mode theHRD.pdf
3 Top Stocks Worth
Buying for the Long Term in 2023 The Motley Fool.pdf
5 Threats to
Sustainable Investing in 2023 Morningstar.pdf
Top five travel
technology trends to watch out for in 2023.pdf
8 Top 2022 Trends
With Home And Housing Wellness Impacts.pdf
GDP and Slow
Growth.pdf

Analysis and Commentary - Geopolitical Risks and Threats - December 31, 2022.pptx

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to Analysis and Commentary - Geopolitical Risks and Threats - December 31, 2022.pptx

Similar to Analysis and Commentary - Geopolitical Risks and Threats - December 31, 2022.pptx (20)

More from paul young cpa, cga

More from paul young cpa, cga (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Analysis and Commentary - Geopolitical Risks and Threats - December 31, 2022.pptx

Editor's Notes