All changed, changed utterly - from the days of the wireless to today’s digital home and beyond It is only a relatively short time since the radio or wireless was a piece of furniture in European home and the mainstay of home entertainment. Radios get smaller, televisions entered homes and home entertainment became a reality. The advent of the digital age, fixed and wireless connectivity to the Internet has transformed the consumer experience ... This talk will chart the course of the home technology evolution over the past 50 years Explore where it might go in the future.

1. “All changed, changed utterly” - From
the days of the “wireless” to today's
digital home and beyond”
IET Ireland Network
2011 Chairman‟s Address
Pat Kidney
06 Oct 2011
Ref: 67485649/225

2. 2
Engineering and Technology
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3. 3
IET Vision and Mission
 Vision
w To share and advance knowledge throughout the
global Science, Engineering and Technology
community to enhance people’s lives around the world
 Mission
w To build an open, flexible and global knowledge
network supported by individuals, companies and
institutions and facilitated by the IET and its members
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4. 4
Ireland Network Vision
 To operate as an autonomous group within Ireland whilst
co-operating with other professional bodies
 To serve our members in Ireland by organising an annual
programme of meetings, technical visits and social events.
 To help our members remain employable for life
 To raise the profile of the engineer in Irish society
 To spread engineering knowledge, learning and problem
solving skills
 To promote the ideas and intellectual output of Irish people
 To facilitate the links between business and academia.
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5. 5
Why the IET?
„Employment for life‟ has become
„employable for life‟
 Networking potential and access to influential people in
the wider industry and society
 Being part of a high-tech knowledge community
 Support knowledge and skills development
 Broad scope of membership
w Chartered Eng, Eng Tech, IT Professions, etc.
 Professional registration, international recognition / scope
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6. 6
A Professional Home For Life
Young
Students Mid-career Late-career/Retired
Professionals
Careers Specialist technical knowledge Broad sector
guidance knowledge
Links to
industry Professional Skills Management Skills Mentoring
Community
Volunteering
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7. 7
Programme of events 2011/2012
Telecommunications Power
and Media
Smart
Economy
Engineering and Research and
Technology Development
Other Events
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8. 8
Programme of events 2011/2012
Telecommunications Power
and Media
What now for the single
Saorview electricity market
Smart
Economy
Engineering and Research and
Technology Development
Control system of the Airbus Drug Delivery in medicine
A320
Other Events
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9. “All changed, changed utterly” -
From the days of the “wireless” to
today's digital home and beyond
Pat Kidney
06 Oct 2011
Ref: 67485649/225

10. 10
Home technology from a slow start
to the ubiquitous mobile
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11. 11
When technology started to
provide home entertainment….
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12. 12
…it was a family affair
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13. 13
The Television ….first to transmit
pictures
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Traditional TV watching… linear
 Whatever programme
 Available at that moment
 Available on that channel
 One size fits all concept
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15. 15
However, the future of content is in
the long tail and choice
“The 80/20 rule does not apply in a
No of Viewers world without the constraints of
physical media”
Titles
Broadcast Uni cast
DTT/Cable/Satellite IPTV
 Consumer are all individuals
 Consumers matched with Content
 Opportunity for targeted advertising
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16. 16
Combination of Broadcast and
Broadband IPTV revolutionises the
market
 Broadband IPTV complements
DTT & provides innovative new
services:
w Catch up TV
w Video on demand
w User generated content
w Social networking
w Interactive services
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17. 17
“Receivers of the future” in 2000 …
• Could be a Set Top Box...
• Could be a TV set...
• Could be a PC with plug-in card...
• Could be a mobile…..
• or a digital device of some kind...
Integrated Receiver-
Decoder (IRD)
?
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18. 18
The growing appetite for the
flexible consumption of content…
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19. 19
Who is watching what?
 online video regularly – Figure 1: TV and online video consumption by age
group1 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
younger and larger HH 100%
90%
 Online video has 80%
Percentage of respondents
complemented, rather than 70%
replaced, pay TV 60%
50%
 The young are far more 40%
likely to view TV content 30%
via devices, such as 20%
10%
games consoles and
0%
laptops. 18–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+
 The young value the TV Pay TV Online video
flexibility 1 Questions: “Do you frequently use a TV?”; all respondents; n = 6000; “Do
you also take pay-TV?”; all respondents with fixed broadband; n = 4918;
“Have you viewed an online video within the past 3 months?”; all
respondents; n = 6000. 67485649/225

20. 20
Resulting in some interesting user
behaviour Figure 1: Percentage of fixed broadband subscribers who
intend to change service provider, by overall fixed
• Service usage is broadband customer satisfaction1 [Source: Analysys
Mason, 2010]
80%
fragmenting. The ubiquity
of subscribers
60%
Percentage
Europe 2009
of connected devices 40% Europe 2010
USA 2010
20%
enables users to carry 0%
1 2 3 4 5
out an increasing number Overall fixed broadband customer satisfaction
(1 = unsatisfied; 5 = very satisfied)
of digital activities Figure 2: Percentage of mobile broadband subscribers
who intend to change service provider, by country1
simultaneously.. [Source: Analysys Mason, 2010]
UK
Poland
Spain
• Service providers must USA
France
prioritise customer Germany
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
care. Intend to churn
Percentage of subscribers
Intend to churn, but tied into contract
1 Question: “Do you intend to change your Internet service provider in the
next six months?”. Figure 1: respondents with a fixed broadband
connection, decision makers; n = 4117. Figure 2: respondents with a
mobile broadband connection; n = 1388.
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21. 21
The audio-visual sector is undergoing
three, significant high-level changes
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22. 22
Digital distribution is resulting in more
channels, services and indirectly content
Number of HD channels in Europe Global 3D TV shipment forecasts
344
350 319 70 64
3D TV Shipments (millions)
Number of HD channels
300 276 60 53.5
250 228 50 46
200 176 40 36.5
150 30 25
101
100 20 16
52 9.5
50 10 1.5 3.5
0.2
0 0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: SES 2009, Analysys Mason 2010
Source: DisplaySearch
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23. 23
Video to PC and to TV will be the
main driver of IP traffic growth
Notable growth in
Global Consumer Internet Traffic Forecast traffic to connected-
TVs is expected in
45,000 the next few years
40,000
Traffic (PB per month)
35,000
30,000 However,
highest traffic
25,000 demand still
20,000 expected to
come from
15,000 video to PC
services
10,000
5,000
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
File Sharing Internet Video Internet Video to TV
Web/Data Video Calling Online Gaming
VoIP
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Source: Cisco Global Consumer Internet Traffic, 2009-2014

24. 24
New interfaces on TVs makes
consumption of interactive content easy
Yahoo! Connected TV
Sony Bravia TV Source: Yahoo!
Source: Sony
OpenTV
Source: CNN
Canvas
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Source: BBC

25. 25
Connected TV offers opportunities to
producers to create new types of content
Project Canvas indicative screenshots: Draft Project Canvas service structure
Source: BBC
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26. 26
The digital home is a reality…the
building blocks are in place
 ubiquitous high-speed
connectivity through:
w high penetration rate for
fixed broadband
w maturity of home
networking technology
w widespread deployment
of 3G and 3.5G cellular
networks.
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/lorenjavier/ CC BY-
ND 2.0
 growing number of
connected devices
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27. 27
The digital home …more blocks
w digital delivery of content
w move towards open
standards
w consumer desire for
flexibility in the way they
access and consume their
content
w green agenda
w deployment of smart
infrastructure by utilities.
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28. 28
fixed broadband is reaching
stagnation in developed markets
Figure 1: Fixed and mobile broadband connections in developed markets, 2009–2015 [Source: Analysys Mason, 2011]
600
Broadband connections (million)
500
400 5-year growth
opportunity for
new fixed
300 broadband
connections
200
100
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Fixed broadband Mobile broadband
For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Fixed broadband: worldwide forecast 2010–2015 at 67485649/225
http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/RDMB0_Fixed_BB_worldwide_forecast/.

29. 29
Operator‟s focus is moving from
outside to inside
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30. 30
Digital home multimedia
Professional content
Content creation  User-generated content
Professional
Content aggregation  User-generated
 To the home
Connectivity  In-home
 Primary terminals
Devices  Peripheral devices
 Content
Services  Service wrap
Consumer
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31. 31
Multimedia digital home services
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/lge CC BY 2.0
Whole-home
DVR
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32. 32
Multimedia digital home services
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/lge CC BY 2.0 Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/horiavarlan CC
BY 2.0
Whole-home Digital music1
DVR
For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Digital music services: strategies for operators at
1
http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/Analysys_Mason_RDMB0_RDMY0_Digital_music_strategies_Mar2011/.
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33. 34
Multimedia digital home services
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/walkn CC BY
2.0
Online storage and
backup1
1 For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Online storage is a growth market that ISPs cannot afford to ignore at
http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/Online-storage-is-a-growth-market-that-ISPs-cannot-afford-to-ignore/.
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34. 35
Multimedia digital home services
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/walkn CC BY Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/alanclarkdesign CC BY-
2.0 ND 2.0
Online storage and Technical support
backup1 and warranty
services2
1 For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Online storage is a growth market that ISPs cannot afford to ignore at
http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/Online-storage-is-a-growth-market-that-ISPs-cannot-afford-to-ignore/.
2 For further information, please see Analysys Mason’s Beyond voice: how telcos are realising the potential of ICT support services at
http://www.analysysmason.com/Research/Content/Viewpoints/Beyond-voice-how-telcos-are-realising-the-potential-of-ICT-support-services/.
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35. 36
Home automation value chain
Utility networks

 Communications networks
Networks  In-home networks
 Enabling devices
 Single-function devices
Devices and appliances  Appliances
Service wrap

 Actual services
Services  Applications
Consumer
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36. 37
Home automation services
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/fotdmike CC
BY 2.0
Home security and
monitoring
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37. 38
Home automation services
120 30
Average temperature
Daily usage (kWh)
(degrees Celsius)
100 25
80 20
60 15
40 10
20 5
0 0
06 May
22 Apr
01 Apr
08 Apr
15 Apr
29 Apr
Usage (kWh) Average temperature (Celcius)
Source: http://www.flickr.com/photos/fotdmike CC
BY 2.0
Home security and Energy
monitoring management
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38. 39
Past Present Future
Devices Devices
Different
Music types of
content
Multimedia flowing from
Video one device to
Game another
Music Video
s Music
Game
s
Different types Video
of content to Different
dedicated types of
devices content to Game
various s
devices
Home
automation
Home automation
network integrated with
Proprietary home Move towards open multimedia network,
controller connected standards grows the appliances connected
to various functions market, yet home to home network
(HVAC, lighting, etc.) automation network
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remains separate

39. 40
A glimpse into the future?
Source: KT Corp. (Kyeonggi-do, Korea, 2011), KT to Launch Kibot, a robot for kids, first-ever in the world. Available at http://www.kt.com/eng/index.jsp.
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40. 41
Food for thought – an engineering
challenge
 “In the old days of Radio, one person, or a small group,
spoke to hundreds, or thousands or tens of thousands.
 They were trained in the subject and even trained to
speak on a microphone.
 Nowadays, with Internet, everyone has a voice, everyone
says his bit.
 The ratio of mouths to ears has changed. The ratio of
literate to illiterate communication has changed”.
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41. 42
Pat Kidney
Pat.kidney@analysysmason.com
Suite 242, The Capel Building
Mary's Abbey
Dublin 7, Ireland
Tel: +353 86 2446091
www.analysysmason.com
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