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Paper 3 Rey Santella Global Agriculture Trade
1. December 7, 2019
Key Data Points on Trade and Agriculture
Rey Santella
Agricultural
Counselor, US
Embassy
2. United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
U.S. Agricultural Trade Situation
2
Source: USDA FAS Global Agricultural Trade System, FATUS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
'94
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
19(f)
20(f)
BillionDollars
152.3
143.4
137.0
129.0
Records Exports
Imports
Trade Surplus
8.0
43.1
Fiscal Year
3. United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
A Classic “long tail distribution”
Almost 30 markets over $1 billion in Ag Exports
3Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau Trade Data
0
5
10
15
20
25
Canada
Mexico
EuropeanUnion-28
Japan
China
Korea,South
Vietnam
HongKong
Taiwan
Indonesia
Philippines
Colombia
Thailand
Egypt
India
Australia
SaudiArabia
Turkey
Pakistan
DominicanRep.
Brazil
Peru
Guatemala
UAE
Malaysia
Bangladesh
Chile
Singapore
Argentina
CostaRica
Panama
Honduras
Israel
Morocco
ElSalvador
NewZealand
Jamaica
Switzerland
Iraq
Ecuador
U.S. Ag Exports 2018, $Billion
4. United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Export or Shrink
More than 20% of U.S. Ag Production is Exported
4
Exports are a critical source of income for a wide range of ag products (2018/19).
81%
65%
64%
55%
50%
42% 42%
38%
36%
25% 23% 22%
19%
17% 15% 15%
12%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Source: USDA/FAS/PSD database, marketing year data; U.S. Dairy Export Council
Specialty
Bulk
Dairy, Livestock &
Poultry
(1) Corn & corn embedded in ethanol, DDGS, and HFCS exports 4
5. United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Top 6 Export Markets
Account for 60% of Total US Ag Exports
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
BillionDollars
Japan
S. Korea
China
Canada
Mexico
EU
Source: U.S. Census via USDA/FAS GATS/BICO-10 Product Group
6. United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
6
Top 5 Agricultural Exports
to our Top 6 Export Markets, 2018
Source: U.S. Census via USDA/FAS/GATS BICO-10
Beef & Beef Prods.
Beef & Beef Prods. Beef & Beef Prods.
Corn
Corn
Corn
Cotton
Dairy Products
Fresh Fruit
Fresh Fruit
Fresh Veg.
Hides & Skins
Non-Alcoholic Bev. (ex.
juices)
Planting Seeds
Pork & Pork Prods.
Pork & Pork Prods.
Pork & Pork Prods.
Pork & Pork Prods.
Prepared Food
Prepared Food
Snack Foods
Sorghum
Soybeans
Soybeans
Soybeans
Soybeans
Tree Nuts
Wheat
Wheat
Wine & Beer
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Canada Mexico EU-28 Japan China S. Korea
Billion $
7. United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
7
U.S. Ag Exports to China
USDA/FAS/WTO Agricultural Products, calendar year
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
ValueinBillionDollars
max (2009-18) 2018
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
Soybeans
& Soy
Products
Cotton
ValueinBillionDollars
9. Change In U.S. Exports
2018 vs. 2016-2017 Average
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
BillionDollars
* Large decline in soybean exports offset by positive gains in exports of corn, cotton, beef and
meal.
* Could have been a record year?
10. United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
U.S. Soybean Exports to China Plunge, Partially Offset
by Increased Shipments to Alternate Markets
36.1
8.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
World Total China
Million Metric Tons
10
11. United States Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Current Engagements Around the
World
11
• China
• USMCA
• Japan
• Europe
• UK
Editor's Notes
2
Despite the global challenges facing U.S. agricultural exports, more than 30 countries purchased more than $1 billion of U.S. ag products in 2018.
Pakistan’s climb to the 21st spot is notable, given that just less than 4 years ago, U.S. ag exports totaled less than $300 million. The growth has been fueled by soybean and cotton exports.
Even Ecuador and Iraq purchased more than a billion dollars of U.S. ag products in 2018.
Updated 2019
Exports are critical to US ag economy
A significant portion of high-value products produced, such as cotton, are exported.
As economies of developing countries continue to grow, the trend for more diverse food options, such as these high-value products, also grows.
Other talking points
For many sectors, exports are a huge share of production. Imagine where we would be if export markets closed (or stopped growing): prices would fall, production would contract, rural America would suffer economic pain.
US Ag Exports in 2018 totaled more than $137 billion.
Canada was the #1 export market valued at more than $25 billion, followed by Mexico with $20 billion. Canada and Mexico were the top destinations for U.S. ag exports and made up 28 percent of total U.S. agricultural exports to the world, thanks to proximity and most tariff eliminations from NAFTA.
How the USMCA affects trade remains to be seen.
The EU and Japan were in 3rd and 4th place and China fell to the 5th spot with just a little over $13 billion. Between January – September this year, U.S. ag exports to China further declined to nearly $11 billion compared to the same period in 2018. We’ll take a further look into the China trade in a few slides.
S. Korea rounded up the top 6 with slightly over $9 billion.
As you can see in this chart, consumer oriented products such as snack and prepared foods and tree nuts were popular in the Canadian and EU markets, and meat related products Japan and S. Korea.
When you look at the rest of the countries, bulk products, particularly commodities, which are used as inputs in animal feed are in high demand such Mexico, Japan, China. Even the EU with its strict laws on the use of biotech products imported more than $6 billion of s
As indicated earlier, U.S. ag exports to China in 2018 fell to a little over $13 billion due the ongoing trade issues.
Many of the bulk commodities have been affected by the U.S./China trade disputes including soybeans, sorghum, wheat, DDGs, etc.
As you can see in this chart, there have been significant declines in a number of bulk commodities including sorghum, wheat, corn and DDGS due to the imposition of retaliatory tariffs.
Soybeans, Hides/Skins, Sorghum and Wheat were primarily hit by China’s retaliation.
Commodities that were hit by retaliatory duties but managed to increase exports include: Pork, Beef, Cotton, Dairy, Ethanol, and Distilled Spirits.
* In some cases it may have been due to front loading prior to the onset of duties (e.g. Bourbon to EU)
* Other cases the duties weren’t imposed restrictively (cotton to China)
* Other cases the market dynamics of certain commodities helped expand exports to alternative markets
There are 2 things to think about….
Would we have set a record for value of US exports had their been no retaliatory tariffs? Highly Likely
In 2019, there will be no front-loading exports and duties may remain entire year – impacts this year may be much more severe for farmers with waning patience.
While U.S. soybean exports to China have declined to 8 MMT from 36 MMT, they have been offset in other parts of the world.
Pakistan’s soybean imports, for instance, has risen to more than 1.7 MMT from being minimal or zero in 2014.
USDA stands ready to assist U.S. exporters as well as Pakistan importers on expanding this trade. For the past several years, USDA through the Foreign Agricultural Service has organized buyers’ missions to the U.S. in partnership with USSEC and the U.S. soybean industry. Under the FAS programs, participants visit farms, learn about the U.S. regulatory process that ensure the safety of the products and most importantly meet with potential partners.
China, let’s not forget the trade dispute started because of the theft of intellectual property.
Total U.S. imports from the world average $2.3 trillion annually while the U.S. exports an average $1.3 trillion, thus, causing large deficits due to a lack of free, fair and reciprocal trade.
USMCA: In Congress’ hands
Japan: Diet approved it, will be in force Jan. 1, 2020.
Europe/UK: in negotiations.
