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FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts
Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts
Exports $6.9 billion to $149.5 billion
Imports $0.5...
U.S. Agricultural Trade
0
10
20
30
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60
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100
110
120
130
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150
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 12 14...
0
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30
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Grains and
Feeds
Oilseeds Livestock,
Poultry, and
Dairy
Cotton Horticultural
Products
Billion$
FY...
Record volume for soybeans and feeds; Corn
volume rebounds
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2011 2012 2013 2014f
MillionT...
Record Forecast for Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy
0
5
10
15
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30
35
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f
Billion$
Overall Forecas...
Top 10 U.S. Markets in FY2014
0 10 20 30
Philippines
Indonesia
Taiwan
HK
S. Korea
EU
Japan
Mexico
Canada
China
Billion $
R...
Soybeans and Feeds Drive Higher U.S. Exports to China
0
7
14
21
Oct-Mar FY13 Oct-Mar FY14
Billion$
U.S. Exports to China I...
Exports Up to China, SE Asia, EU, & S. America
Change in FY 2014 Exports from February Forecast
+$1.5 bil
+$3.5 bil
+$900 ...
Total $0.5 billion at a record of 110.5 billion
Tropical Products $1.0 billion – lower prices for coffee and rubber
Hortic...
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $35.8 Billion $4.5 Billion
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14f
Export Value ($B...
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $33.8 Billion $2.4 Billion
Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products
2014
Key Developments
Soybean...
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $32.2 Billion $600 Million
Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry
2014
Key Development...
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $4.4 Billion Unchanged
Export Outlook for Cotton
2014
Key Developments
 China demand slows
 Pr...
Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $34.1 Billion Down $400 million
Export Outlook for Horticulture Products
2014
Key Developments
...
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Dr Dev Kambhampati | FY 2014 US Agricultural Trade Forecasts- USDA

Dr Dev Kambhampati | FY 2014 US Agricultural Trade Forecasts- USDA

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Dr Dev Kambhampati | FY 2014 US Agricultural Trade Forecasts- USDA

  1. 1. FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $6.9 billion to $149.5 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.5 billion Surplus $6.4 billion to $39.0 billion USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade” Released on May 29, 3:00 PM EST Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS
  2. 2. U.S. Agricultural Trade 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 12 14(f) Billion$ 39.0 Exports Imports Trade Surplus Records 137.4 110.5 42.9 149.5
  3. 3. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Grains and Feeds Oilseeds Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy Cotton Horticultural Products Billion$ FY 2014 ForecastsFebruary May +$4.5 Billion +$0.6 Billion -$0.4 Billion May vs. February Commodity Forecasts Large gains in grains and oilseeds; slight reduction in horticultural products +$2.4 Billion No change
  4. 4. Record volume for soybeans and feeds; Corn volume rebounds 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2011 2012 2013 2014f MillionTons Overall volume up 31% from FY13 Other* Soybeans Feeds Wheat Coarse Grains 170 mmt166 mmt *Includes cotton, rice, soybean meal, soybean oil, beef & veal, pork, beef and pork variety meats, broiler meat, and tobacco 146 mmt 130 mmt
  5. 5. Record Forecast for Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f Billion$ Overall Forecast up $0.7 Billion from FY 2013 Other Dairy Beef & veal Hides & skins Dairy, beef, and hides & skins each hit historical highs
  6. 6. Top 10 U.S. Markets in FY2014 0 10 20 30 Philippines Indonesia Taiwan HK S. Korea EU Japan Mexico Canada China Billion $ Record Half of top markets forecast to hit records
  7. 7. Soybeans and Feeds Drive Higher U.S. Exports to China 0 7 14 21 Oct-Mar FY13 Oct-Mar FY14 Billion$ U.S. Exports to China In First Half of Fiscal Year Other Feeds & fodders Grains Meat & poultry Cotton Soybeans $11.7 B $14.1 B
  8. 8. Exports Up to China, SE Asia, EU, & S. America Change in FY 2014 Exports from February Forecast +$1.5 bil +$3.5 bil +$900 mil +$900 mil -$200 mil +$200 mil +$200 mil
  9. 9. Total $0.5 billion at a record of 110.5 billion Tropical Products $1.0 billion – lower prices for coffee and rubber Horticultural Products $0.2 billion – lower volume of wine Grain and Oilseeds $1.7 billion – record wheat and soybean imports Livestock & Dairy $0.1 billion – higher swine, beef, and pork imports Other Imports $0.1 billion – mainly tobacco and planting seeds FY 2014 Imports
  10. 10. Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $35.8 Billion $4.5 Billion 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14f Export Value ($Bil) Actual Feb Forecast May Forecast 2014 Key Developments Corn volume up sharply on rising global demand and less competition from Argentina Wheat prices up on tight supplies and deteriorating crop conditions DDGS and sorghum up on record demand from China Wild Cards Timing of South American corn shipments Northern Hemisphere winter wheat harvests Wheat export policies in India and Argentina Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products
  11. 11. Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $33.8 Billion $2.4 Billion Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products 2014 Key Developments Soybean volume rises on record sales to China  Soybean meal volume up on stronger demand  Strong demand and tight U.S. supplies boost soybean complex prices Wild Cards Argentina export activity 9 14 19 24 29 34 '02 '04 '06 '08 10 12 14f Export Value ($Bil) Actual Feb Forecast May Forecast
  12. 12. Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $32.2 Billion $600 Million Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry 2014 Key Developments  Dairy higher on strong global demand  Beef up mostly on unit values due to robust global demand  Poultry down on lower egg and egg product shipments  Pork edges lower on tighter exportable supplies Wild Cards  PED impact  Ongoing SPS trade issues 10 14 18 22 26 30 34 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14f Export Value ($Bil) Actual Feb Forecast May Forecast
  13. 13. Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $4.4 Billion Unchanged Export Outlook for Cotton 2014 Key Developments  China demand slows  Prices remain strong Wild Cards  Additional changes in China’s reserve policy  Cotton yarn demand in China 0 2 4 6 8 10 '02 '04 '06 '08 10 12 14f Export Value ($Bil) Actual Feb Forecast May Forecast
  14. 14. Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $34.1 Billion Down $400 million Export Outlook for Horticulture Products 2014 Key Developments  Tree nut growth lower as rising prices weaken Chinese demand  Fresh fruit and vegetables down on lower volumes to Canada and Korea Wild Card  California Drought 10 15 20 25 30 35 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 12 14f Export Value ($Bil) Actual Feb Forecast May Forecast Record

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