Yann Algan : Populisms and public policy

1. Political economy and
the distrust of citizens
OECD Nov. 29
YANN ALGAN

2. Controversy :
« Cultural backlash versus economic factors »
• Origins of the rise of political polarization and anti-system votes
• Culture : Norris & Inglehart (2019, Cultural backlash, OUP)
• Economic shocks

3. 1. Distrust in institutions:
Common to all anti-system voters
All voters of anti-system parties share a high level of distrust towards institutions.
Source: Algan, Beasley, Cohen, Foucault (2019) - ESS
Yellow vests movementDistrust in national institutions in Europe
Voteforaanti-systemparty
Trust in national Parliament
How much do you trust the government?
1. Not at all -> 4. A lot
Average score
FrenchPresid.Votechoice(2017,1stround)

4. Distrust in institutions / Life satisfaction - Economic factors

5. Various candidates for economic insecurity
5
• Financial crisis : ex. Algan, Guriev, Papaioannou, Passari,
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2017; Eichengreen (2018)
• Globalization: Autor, Dorn, Hanson : QJE (2014), NBER (2016)
• Job polarization : Zhen Jie Im, Mayer, Palier & Rovny (2019)
• Inequality: Piketty (2019)

6. 6
Ex. : Financial Crisis

7. Distrust in institution: lines up with life satisfaction
Economic factors
Weighted average of responses for voters for each candidate in the first round in
2017.
High Trust
Low Trust
High Life
Satisfaction
Low Life
Satisfaction
Anti-system -------------------------- Pro-System

8. 2. Cultural values : Trust in others
explains the polarization High Trust
Low Trust
High Life
Satisfaction
Low Life
Satisfaction
Anti-system -------------------------- Pro-System
Progressiveculture------Conservativeculture

9. Why don’t poor people vote for
redistribution? : Diagonal
Weighted average of responses for voters for each candidate in the first round in
2017.
High Trust
Low Trust
High Life
Satisfaction
Low Life
Satisfaction
Anti-system -------------------------- Pro-System
Progressiveculture------Conservativeculture

10. Trust in system : EU-15 and USA

11. Redistribution, EU-15 and USA

12. 3. Loneliness in Post-Industrial societies
• Yellow vest movement: mainly workes in isolated services:
truckers, social care, single mothers ….
• Loneliness in territories:
7.7
7.8
7.9
8
8.1
8.2
Commune
rurale
2 000 à 19 999 20 000 à 99
999
100 000 à 199
999
200 000 à 2
millions
Paris
Satisfactiondvis-à-visdesrelations,
échellede0à10
Type d'unité urbaine (en nombre d'habitants)
Amis
Famille

13. Public services / Social relationships

14. Conclusion
• Politics of 2 new axes provide a comprehensive framework to understand
the political polarization
• Low life satisfaction and distrust in institutions are common to anti-system votes
• Interpersonal trust : split between radical left/right votes
• Determinants:
• Life satisfaction and distrust in institutions: highly correlated with economic
insecurity
• Interpersonal trust: Mobility and loneliness in post-industrial societies
• Policy consequences :
• Redistribution and inequality (Piketty, 2018).
• But part of the poor vote for anti-redistributive platforms
• Policies to boost generalized trust and fight loneliness at work and in remote
territories (post Yellow vests recommendations)