I created this slide deck for a presentation about the immediate need for unconditional universal basic income in order to restore people's trust in government and save democracy from falling to autocracy. scottsantens.com

1. AUTOMATION
ALREADY
REQUIRES
BASIC
INCOME
Why UBI is Necessary to Restore Trust and Save
Democracy
SCOTT SANTENS

2. Emotions matter.

3. DALL-E 2
A new AI system by
OpenAI that can create
realistic images and art
from a description in
natural language.
All it needs is a sentence.

7. Did those images evoke an
emotional reaction?

8. WONDER
?
AMAZEMENT?
UNEASE
?

9. FEAR
?

10. THE STORY OF JOHN Q. CITIZEN
THE DREAM
High school
graduate with a job
in manufacturing
earning the median
income
DISRUPTION
Loses his job to a
robot or
outsourcing. The
details really don't
matter to John.
UNEMPLOYED
Can't afford to go to
college. Can't afford
to move or upskill.
Feels lost and
worthless. Seeks
self-medication.
REEMPLOYED
Finds new lower
paying job without
benefits. Wife gets
one too. Less
household income.
Less secure. Less
happy. Lives in
constant fear.
ANGRY
Sees experts
saying automation
creates new better
jobs and
globalization makes
stuff cheaper. Falls
down a non-expert
rabbit hole.

11. UNCONDITIONAL
No work requirements.
Money is provided independent of
employment status.
PERIODIC
Money is provided on a regular
dependable basis, be it hourly, daily,
weekly, monthly, etc.
UNIVERSAL
Everyone get it.
Money is provided independent of
income status.
INDIVIDUAL
Money is provided to each individual
within a household, not the head of the
household.
BASIC INCOME IS MONEY THAT IS:

12. Blue = $1,000/mo UBI floor
White = Individual income percentiles
Red = Taxes
UNCONDITIONAL
BASIC INCOME
EVERYONE RECEIVES THE
SAME INCOME FLOOR AND
EVERYONE PAYS TAXES
BASED ON THEIR INCOME
AND/OR CONSUMPTION
@ScottSantens
10% 25% Median 75% 90% 99%
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0

13. • Started studying the idea of basic income
back in 2013
• Lived with a crowdfunded basic income
floor since 2016
• Editor of Basic Income Today - a daily
UBI news hub
• Senior Advisor for Humanity Forward - a
bipartisan evidence-based nonprofit
with the goal of ending poverty in
America
WHO AM I?
SCOTT SANTENS

14. Can we afford UBI?
Won't people stop working with UBI?
Won't inflation nullify UBI?
Should we fear automation?
TODAY
How did we afford not having UBI?
People thought UBI would prevent work?
Why did we accept inflation absent UBI?
Automate all the things!
TOMORROW

15. TRUST
ONE WORD
SOCIETY'S GLUE

16. 1) Nixon
2) Robots
3) Universalism
4) Finland
5) Win-win
FIVE SUBJECTS
ON MY MIND ABOUT TRUST

17. Nixon

18. THE ORIGINS OF NIXON'S FAP
- DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN (1967)
“LOOK, WE ARE IN A SITUATION APPROACHING
ANARCHY. THE CONFIDENCE AND TRUST IN
INSTITUTIONS, THE NECESSARY INSTITUTIONS HOLDING
TOGETHER A SOCIETY, IS DWINDLING, DRYING UP...
LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES HAVE TO COME
TOGETHER TO TRY TO ADDRESS PEOPLE’S REAL NEEDS.
OTHERWISE, THIS SOCIETY IS GOING TO COLLAPSE. THE
SOCIAL CONTRACT WILL GO AND WE WON’T HAVE
ENOUGH RESPECT FOR INSTITUTIONS TO KEEP GOING.”

19. IMPACT OF UBI ON WORK
- DE PAZ-BÁÑEZ MA, ASENSIO-COTO MJ, SÁNCHEZ-LÓPEZ C, ACEYTUNO M-T. IS
THERE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON HOW THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A UNIVERSAL
BASIC INCOME (UBI) AFFECTS LABOUR SUPPLY? A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW.
SUSTAINABILITY. 2020; 12(22):9459. HTTPS://DOI.ORG/10.3390/SU12229459
"DESPITE A DETAILED SEARCH, WE HAVE NOT FOUND ANY
EVIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN LABOR SUPPLY;
INSTEAD WE FOUND EVIDENCE THAT LABOR SUPPLY INCREASES
GLOBALLY AMONG ADULTS, MEN AND WOMEN, YOUNG AND OLD;
AND THE EXISTENCE OF SOME INSIGNIFICANT AND FUNCTIONAL
REDUCTIONS TO THE SYSTEM SUCH AS A DECREASE IN WORKERS
FROM THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY,
THE SICK, THOSE WITH DISABILITIES, WOMEN WITH YOUNG
CHILDREN TO LOOK AFTER, OR YOUNG PEOPLE WHO CONTINUED
STUDYING. THESE REDUCTIONS DO NOT REDUCE OVERALL SUPPLY
BECAUSE IT IS LARGELY OFFSET BY INCREASED SUPPLY FROM
OTHER MEMBERS OF THE COMMUNITY."

20. STOCKTON, CA
$500/MO BASIC INCOME
RECIPIENTS FOUND FULL-
TIME EMPLOYMENT AT
TWICE THE RATE OF NON-
RECIPIENTS
(28%>>40% VS 32%>>37%)
HUDSON, NY
$500/MO BASIC INCOME
RECIPIENT EMPLOYMENT
MORE THAN DOUBLED
(FROM 29% T0 63%)

21. Report from the Social Policy Institute at
Washington University in St. Louis found that
declines in employment in 2022 have been
sharpest for monthly CTC recipients once
the enhanced credit was terminated.
Employment of CTC recipients dropped
from 72.4% to 68.3% after the final monthly
payment of the credit in December 2021.
EFFECT OF MONTHLY
CTC EXPIRATION
PARENTAL EMPLOYMENT
DECLINED

22. Robot
s

23. IMPACT OF ROBOTS ON DEMOCRACY
- ANELLI, M., COLANTONE, I., & STANIG, P. (2021). INDIVIDUAL VULNERABILITY TO
INDUSTRIAL ROBOT ADOPTION INCREASES SUPPORT FOR THE RADICAL RIGHT.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 118(47).
HTTPS://DOI.ORG/10.1073/PNAS.2111611118
"WE INVESTIGATE THE IMPACT OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOT
ADOPTION ON INDIVIDUAL VOTING BEHAVIOR IN 13 WESTERN
EUROPEAN COUNTRIES BETWEEN 1999 AND 2015... WE FIND
THAT INDIVIDUALS MORE EXPOSED TO AUTOMATION TEND TO
DISPLAY HIGHER SUPPORT FOR THE RADICAL RIGHT."
AUTOMATION WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH POORER
PERCEIVED ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF
HAVING A PERMANENT CONTRACT, AND LOWER
SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND DEMOCRACY.

24. IMPACT OF ROBOTS ON HEALTH
PANKAJ C. PATEL, SRIKANT DEVARAJ, MICHAEL J. HICKS, EMILY J. WORNELL,
County-level job automation risk and health: Evidence from the United States, Social
Science & Medicine, Volume 202, 2018, Pages 54-60, ISSN 0277-9536,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2018.02.025.
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953618300819)
"USING THE 2012 AND 2014 WAVES OF THE GSS, EMPLOYEES IN
OCCUPATIONAL CLASSES AT HIGHER RISK OF AUTOMATION
REPORTED MORE JOB INSECURITY, THAT, IN TURN, WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH POORER HEALTH. THE 2SLS ESTIMATES
SHOW THAT A 10% INCREASE IN AUTOMATION RISK AT
COUNTY-LEVEL IS ASSOCIATED WITH 2.38, 0.8, AND 0.6
PERCENTAGE POINT LOWER GENERAL, PHYSICAL, AND
MENTAL HEALTH, RESPECTIVELY."

25. • 6 in 10 now say their default is to distrust
something until they see evidence it is
trustworthy (oftentimes now social media)
• Government leaders are the least trusted of all
leaders with only 42% trust
• In many democracies, trust in institutions is no
longer a majority view, including the US at 43%
• 85% fear the loss of their jobs
• 48% believe government is a divisive force
• In no developed country do most people feel
they will be better off in 5 years
TRUST IN 28 COUNTRIES
TOP FINDINGS

26. Universalism

27. IMPACT OF NON-UNIVERSAL CASH ON TRUST
KOSEC, KATRINA; AND MO, CECILIA HYUNJUNG. 2019. DOES RELATIVE
DEPRIVATION CONDITION THE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAMS ON
POLITICAL ATTITUDES? EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN. IFPRI
DISCUSSION PAPER 1842. WASHINGTON, DC: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY
RESEARCH INSTITUTE (IFPRI). HTTPS://DOI.ORG/10.2499/P15738COLL2.133270
"AMONG THOSE WHO BARELY MET THE CUTOFF
to be cash transfer recipients, the relative poverty prime led to a 0.6
percentage point increase in
government satisfaction. Among those who barely missed the cutoff,
and received no cash transfer
assistance, we observe a 10.5 percentage point drop in government
confidence... non-beneficiaries feel resentment that they do not have
access to economic assistance from the state that others have
access to, despite their economic need."

28. @ScottSantens
THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN SOMEONE GETTING
HELP THEY DON’T NEED, AND
SOMEONE NEEDING HELP THEY
DON’T GET.
THE FORMER CAN BE
CONSIDERED WASTEFUL, BUT
THE LATTER CAN PROVE FATAL.
IT’S ALWAYS BETTER TO GET AND
NOT NEED, THAN NEED AND NOT
GET.

29. JOKE
- ANONYMOUS ENGINEER
BEFORE STUDYING ENGINEERING, IF
SOMEONE ASKED ME WHAT 1+1 IS, I
WOULD HAVE SAID "2." NOW, I'D SAY
"I'M PRETTY SURE IT'S 2, BUT WE'D
BETTER MAKE IT 3 JUST TO BE SAFE."

30. Finland

31. IMPACT OF UNCONDITIONAL BASIC INCOME ON TRUST
ALLAS, T., MAKSIMAINEN, J., MANYIKA, J., & SINGH, N. (2021, JUNE 23). AN
EXPERIMENT TO INFORM UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME. MCKINSEY & COMPANY.
RETRIEVED APRIL 5, 2022, FROM
HTTPS://WWW.MCKINSEY.COM/INDUSTRIES/PUBLIC-AND-SOCIAL-SECTOR/OUR-
INSIGHTS/AN-EXPERIMENT-TO-INFORM-UNIVERSAL-BASIC-INCOME
"AT THE END OF THE TWO YEARS, BASIC-INCOME RECIPIENTS
REGISTERED ELEVATED LEVELS OF TRUST IN OTHER PEOPLE
AND INSTITUTIONS, SUCH AS FINLAND’S POLITICIANS [13%],
POLITICAL PARTIES, PARLIAMENT, JUDICIARY, AND SOCIAL-
SECURITY SYSTEM. ONE EXPLANATION COULD BE THAT THE
BASIC-INCOME EXPERIMENT DID NOT INVOLVE
BUREAUCRACY, ANOTHER THAT THE RECIPIENTS FELT
SOCIETY—OR 'THE SYSTEM'—WAS NOT NEGLECTING PEOPLE
WHO HAD FALLEN ON HARD TIMES."

32. OBSERVED EFFECTS OF UBI
• ​No significant reduction in labor supply (38 studies meta-analysis)
• Increased self-employment (301%) and part-time employment (17%)
• Slight decrease in alcohol and tobacco use (31 studies meta-analysis)​
• New mothers extend their maternity leaves​
• Birth weights improve due to better maternal nutrition​
• Graduation rates and educational outcomes improve
• Hospitalization rates decline (8.5%)​
• Crime goes down (15%–42%) especially illegal hunting (95%)​
• Domestic violence decreases (30%–51%)
• Trust increases (13% in politicians | 6% in other people)
• Home ownership rates increase (17%–26%)​
• Food security increases as does consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables
• Improved cognitive functioning (43%) and personality traits (31%)​
• Savings go up, debts go down​
@scottsanten

33. Win-win

34. IMPACT OF AUTOMATION PLUS UBI
BENZELL, S., KOTLIKOFF, L., LAGARDA, G., & YE, V. Y. (2021). SIMULATING
ENDOGENOUS GLOBAL AUTOMATION. NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC
RESEARCH. HTTPS://DOI.ORG/10.3386/W29220
"In our baseline scenario, automation has a moderate effect on regional
outputs and a small effect on world interest rates. However, it has a major
impact on inequality, both wage inequality within regions and per capita
GDP inequality across regions. We examine two policy responses to
technological change -- mandating use of the advanced technology and
providing universal basic income to share gains from automation. The
former policy can raise a region's output, but at a welfare cost. The latter
policy can transform automation into a win-win for all generations in a
region."

35. IMPACT OF AUTOMATION PLUS UBI
SINGER, S., & SILVIAN, B. (2021, NOVEMBER 9). HOW UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME
CAN ADVANCE THE UNITED STATES' CHINA STRATEGY. – THE DIPLOMAT.
RETRIEVED APRIL 7, 2022, FROM HTTPS://THEDIPLOMAT.COM/2021/11/HOW-
UNIVERSAL-BASIC-INCOME-CAN-ADVANCE-THE-UNITED-STATES-CHINA-
STRATEGY/
"ubi would strengthen American competitiveness on the world stage by
unlocking support for technological progress and AI development. As such, it
would help the United States maintain its hegemonic advantage over China.
UBI reframes the story of automation. Instead of replacing us, robots would
now be working for us, and their progress would deliver us financial freedom.
As their productivity grows in the coming decades, so could monthly checks –
aka the dividends we are paid for being stakeholders in the United States. In
this context, rapid technological progress that allows America to stay
nationally competitive is not only digestible, but beneficial."

36. Prediction vs. Destination

37. Enough technological predictions.
What destination should humanity set?

38. THANK YOU
scottsantens.com
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