Netwealth educational webinar - Is up the new consensus? Portfolio construction in the changing global economy

Isupthenewconsensus?
Portfolioconstruction
inthechangingglobaleconomy
Presented by
Lukasz de Pourbaix
Chief Investment Officer
Lonsec Investment Solutions
7 March 2017

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Lukasz de Pourbaix
Chief Investment Officer
Lonsec Investment Solutions
Meet today’s speaker

Important notice: This document is published by Lonsec Investment Solutions Pty Ltd ACN 608 837 583, a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR 1236821) (LIS) of
Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421445 (Lonsec Research). LIS creates the model portfolios it distributes using the investment research provided by
Lonsec Research but LIS has not had any involvement in the investment research process for Lonsec Research. LIS and Lonsec Research are owned by Lonsec Fiscal
Holdings Pty Ltd ACN: 151 235 406. Please read the following before making any investment decision about any financial product mentioned in this document.
Disclosure at the Date of Publication: Lonsec Research receives a fee from the relevant fund manager or product issuer(s) for researching financial products (using
objective criteria) which may be referred to in this document. Lonsec Research may also receive a fee from the fund manager or product issuer(s) for subscribing to
research content and other Lonsec Research services. LIS receives a fee for providing the model portfolios to financial services organisations and professionals. LIS’ and
Lonsec Research’s fees are not linked to the financial product rating(s) outcome or the inclusion of the financial product(s) in model portfolios. LIS and Lonsec Research
may hold any financial product(s) referred to in this document. LIS and Lonsec Research’s representatives and/or their associates may hold any financial product(s)
referred to in this document, but details of these holdings are not known to the Lonsec Research analyst(s).
Warnings: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Any express or implied rating or advice presented in this document is limited to “general
advice” (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial product(s) alone, without taking into
account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs (“financial circumstances”) of any particular person. Before making an investment decision
based on the rating or advice, the reader must consider whether it is personally appropriate in light of his or her financial circumstances or should seek independent
financial advice on its appropriateness. If the financial advice relates to the acquisition or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, the reader should
obtain and consider the Investment Statement or the Product Disclosure Statement for each financial product before making any decision about whether to acquire
the financial product.
Disclaimer: LIS provides this document for the exclusive use of its wholesale clients and wholesale clients of Lonsec Limited (trading as Lonsec Stockbroking). It is not
intended for use by a retail client or a member of the public and should not be used or relied upon by any other person. No representation, warranty or undertaking is
given or made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information presented in this document, which is drawn from public information not verified by LIS.
Financial conclusions, ratings and advice are reasonably held at the time of completion (refer to the date of this report) but subject to change without notice. LIS
assumes no obligation to update this document following publication. Except for any liability which cannot be excluded, LIS and Lonsec Research, their directors,
officers, employees and agents disclaim all liability for any error or inaccuracy in, misstatement or omission from, this document or any loss or damage suffered by the
reader or any other person as a consequence of relying upon it.

Agenda
• Where have we been?
• Trump Factor? Rotation from ‘defensives’ to ‘cyclicals’
• Investment Style and fund manager divergence
• Portfolio construction implications
© LONSEC INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS PTY LTD ACN 608 837 583 CAR 1236821

Unconventional Monetary Policy

Yields tracking down – until recently
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
DEC'07
DEC'08
DEC'09
DEC'10
DEC'11
DEC'12
DEC'13
DEC'14
DEC'15
DEC'16
US
GERMAN BUND YIELD…
Source: Bloomberg

Putting things into perspective

US Treasuries – Yield Curve

Information Ratio last 5 years

Sentiment on the rise

Dr Copper strikes again?

New Winners

‘Bond Proxies’ – fall from grace

Fund performance divergence

Value is back

A five-year perspective

One way direction

Issues we’re thinking about
• Trump effect
— Added fuel to already
— ISM highest since 2014
— Consumer sentiment 12 year high
— Wage growth 7 year high,
but…………..
— Protectionism, geopolitics, policy
execution
• Shift away from ‘unconventional’
monetary policy
— Yellen ‘reduce the level of monetary
policy support’
— Rising US dollar? – impact on future
growth
— Impact on interest rate sensitive
sectors
• Valuations
— Fair value to expensive

Lonsec DAA View
Current View
Australian Shares Slightly Underweight
International Shares Slightly Underweight
Australian Property Slightly Underweight
Global Property Slightly Underweight
Listed Infrastructure Neutral
Australian Bonds Neutral
Global Bonds Neutral
Cash Overweight
Alternatives Overweight
Lonsec Tactical Asset Class Positions – December 2016

Style
• Strong get
stronger
• High PE stocks
• Strong earnings
growth
• Beta >1
• Better in up
markets
• Backing the
underdog
• Low PE stocks
• Beaten down
stocks
• Beta < 1
• Better in early
stage recovery
• Replicate market
cap index
• Beta of 1
• Moves in line with
the market
IndexValueGrowth

Portfolio Considerations
• Diversify by strategy
— Beta
— Risk Control
— Alpha
• Understand portfolio factor exposures,
including style
— Style risk
— Sector risk
— Stock risk
— Country risk
• Timing of styles is difficult e.g. value has
been out of favour for around 5 years until
now
• Be conscious that product launches in the
market can be influenced by which style
is performing well at the time

Diversifying by strategy
Risk
Control
Pengana
Australian
Equities
Fund
Alpha
NovaPort
Smaller
Companies
Beta
Fidelity
Australian
Shares
Fund

Measuring factor risk

Key take outs
• We are possibly at the tail end of ‘unconventional’ monetary policy
• Bond proxy sectors under increased pressure
• Trump factor real, but future is uncertain
• Markets have been strong, valuations look fair to expensive
• Value is back following a long hiatus
• Ensure portfolios remain diversified by strategy & style
• Prefer active strategies over passive at this point in the cycle

Lonsec SMA Portfolios
• Operating for over a decade
• Direct and unlisted portfolios structures
• Direct – Core, Income, Emerging Leaders, Diversified Direct
• Unlisted – diversified, with and without alternative assets, retirement portfolios
• Tailored Solutions

Contacts
Lukasz de Pourbaix, Chief Investment Officer
Email: Lukasz.depourbaix@lonsec.com.au
Phone: 02 8651 6740
Web: irate.lonsec.com.au
Mehdi Bokhari, Business Development Manager
Email: Mehdi.Bokhari@lonsec.com.au
Phone: 02 8651 6764
Web: irate.lonsec.com.au

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This webinar and information has been prepared and issued by Netwealth Investments Limited (Netwealth), ABN 85 090
569 109, AFSL 230975. It contains factual information and general financial product advice only and has been prepared
without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual. The information provided is not
intended to be a substitute for professional financial product advice and you should determine its appropriateness having
regard to you or your client’s particular circumstances. The relevant disclosure document should be obtained from
Netwealth and considered before deciding whether to acquire, dispose of, or to continue to hold, an investment in any
Netwealth product.
While all care has been taken in the preparation of this document (using sources believed to be reliable and accurate), no
person, including Netwealth, or any other member of the Netwealth group of companies, accepts responsibility for any
loss suffered by any person arising from reliance on this information.
Disclaimer
Thank you
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Netwealth educational webinar - Is up the new consensus? Portfolio construction in the changing global economy

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